Stock Ratings / Financials / GBDC / insiders

SLM (38) PFSI (41) GPGI (22) PURR (71) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Golub Capital BDC Inc. (GBDC) Insider, 13F Hedge Fund & Politician Buy/Sell Thermometer

$12.72 -0.47% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $12.69

Golub Capital BDC Inc. (GBDC) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 40/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (40/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE D- • RED ALERT Cap $3.32B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on GBDC Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is GBDC stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-02, Golub Capital BDC Inc. (NASDAQ: GBDC) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 40/100 at a spot price of $12.72 (-0.47% 1D, market cap $3.32B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 5/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 10/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 4/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 11/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, GBDC ranks #927 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does GBDC compare to SLM and PFSI in the Financials sector?

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Within the Financials sector (Finance: Consumer Services), GBDC carries a Roarable D- (40/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 8.8x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 9.6%. By comparison, SLM (SLM Corporation) holds a D- grade (38/100 RQD, P/E 4.5x, ROIC 7.4%, cap $3.34B) and PFSI (PennyMac Financial Services Inc.) posts a D- grade (41/100 RQD, P/E 6.7x, ROIC 11.6%, cap $3.35B). Among the 5-stock peer group, SLM leads on earnings multiple (4.5x) while PURR leads on capital efficiency (33.0% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for GBDC?

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Per GBDC's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-09-30, CIK 0001476765), Golub Capital BDC Inc. generated $0 in revenue, $376.6M in net income, and -$113.6M in free cash flow against $8.89B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $12.69 (-0.27%)🧬 Disciplined Float (+0.24% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 5/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (40/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-7.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • D-

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- · Rk D-

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-8.1% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for GBDC)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±4.2%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (40/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY GBDC SCORES 40/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+11/20 pts (28% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 55% Net Buy • Disciplined Float (+0.24% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+10/20 pts (25% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±4.2% realized swing band)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (63.5) create a -16 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade E$12.11-0.8% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade E$12.01+0.9% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade E$12.12+5% Next Q

Current

Grade D-$12.72-7.4% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: E (32) → D- (40)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a GBDC Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While GBDC currently carries a cautious 40/100 (D-) rating due to Macro Regime Fit (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($12.53) and Max Pain ($13.36) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $15.13.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (+0.24% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $GBDC• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “GBDC Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 29, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 40%NO 60%Trade / Inspect Odds →

SEC FORM 4 × 13F HEDGE FUNDS × CONGRESSIONAL STOCK ACT

GBDC Smart-Money Thermometer: BALANCED INSTITUTIONAL POSITIONING

Explore All 13F & Congress Whales →

▲ Disclosed Buys: 0 ($0)▼ Disclosed Sales: 0 ($0)

Wide-Open SEC Form 4, 13F & Congressional Disclosure Ledger (GBDC)

No recent open-market Form 4 cluster sales or emergency dumps flagged on GBDC. Visit the Global 13F & Congressional Whale Ledger for cross-market smart-money filings.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring GBDC)

✓Walkthrough of GBDC's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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GBDC // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -7.02%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE

2026-11-02O $12.45H $12.78L $12.45C $12.72VOL 1.14M

RES: $13.43SUP: $11.67SMA50: $12.53SMA200: $12.81

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

GBDC Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 GBDC Butterfly Map → + Track GBDC →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

-3.7%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on GBDC today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for GBDC. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for GBDC today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (GBDC)

Financials Rank #927 of 1096 ⚔️ SLM vs GBDC Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (GBDC vs. SLM, PFSI, GPGI, PURR)

Industry: Finance: Consumer Services (156 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Golub Capital BDC Inc. (GBDC) ranks #927 by composite RQD confidence (40/100, grade D-) and #344 by equity capitalization ($3.32B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, SLM leads on earnings valuation at 4.5x trailing P/E, while PURR leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 33.0% ROIC and — gross margin. PURR currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 71/100 (B-) compared with GBDC at 40/100 (D-).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
GBDC ACTIVE Golub Capital BDC Inc.	D-	40/100	8.8x	—	9.6%	-0.47%	$3.32B	Benchmark Subject
SLM SLM Corporation	D-	38/100	4.5x	—	7.4%	-2.47%	$3.34B	/slm-vs-gbdc →
PFSI PennyMac Financial Services Inc.	D-	41/100	6.7x	—	11.6%	-2.31%	$3.35B	/pfsi-vs-gbdc →
GPGI GPGI Inc. (Class A)	E	22/100	—	—	-6.5%	-3.62%	$3.36B	/gpgi-vs-gbdc →
PURR Hyperliquid Strategies Inc	B-	71/100	32.8x	—	33.0%	-10.41%	$3.42B	/purr-vs-gbdc →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-09-30 • CIK 0001476765

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-09-30), Golub Capital BDC Inc. (GBDC) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of $376.6M, operating cash flow of -$113.6M, and free cash flow of -$113.6M (-133.0% YoY). On the balance sheet, GBDC closed FY2025 with $8.89B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 2/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-09-30	$0	$376.6M	-$113.6M	-$113.6M	$8.89B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-09-30	$0	$273.8M	$343.9M	$343.9M	$9.01B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-09-30	$0	$258.6M	$195.4M	$195.4M	—	—

3. GBDC Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is GBDC stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does GBDC compare to SLM and PFSI in the Financials sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for GBDC?

Where is GBDC trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

GBDC last traded at $12.72 (-0.47% on volume of 1,069,832 shares), positioning the stock +1.52% above its 50-day simple moving average ($12.53) and -0.70% below its 200-day simple moving average ($12.81). Across its 52-week range of $11.77 to $14.41, GBDC sits at the 36.0% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 63.5 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±4.2% ($12.19 to $13.25).

GBDC Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Are GBDC insiders and hedge funds buying or selling?

Roarable's SEC Form 4 and 13F Whale Thermometer currently classifies GBDC leadership and institutional positioning as: BALANCED INSTITUTIONAL POSITIONING.

Direct Sub-Reports: GBDC RQD Cockpit GBDC 12M Forecast GBDC Earnings & Move GBDC Dividends & DRIP GBDC Insiders & 13F GBDC Whale Options GBDC Profit Sankey GBDC News & Why

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 40/100 (D-) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

GBDC — Golub Capital BDC Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5

As of: 2026-11-02T15:23:39Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, GBDC scores 40 out of 100, a letter grade of D-, with the verdict label "Roarable Sell — Vulnerable Balance Sheet & Flow." Across the five pillars:

Fundamental Cash Engine: 5 / 20. Per the Roarable RQD rating, this pillar reflects ROIC of 9.6% and an FCF yield of -3.42%. The negative FCF yield is the core issue: reported free cash flow is not covering the equity valuation, so cash generation does not currently support the stock's price on this measure.
Whale 13F Flow: 10 / 20. Per the Roarable RQD rating, the pillar captures institutional accumulation and options positioning. The score is middling, signaling neither strong conviction nor clear distribution.
Insider Conviction: 11 / 20. Per the Roarable RQD rating, this reflects SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow. It is the highest-scoring pillar but still below half-credit.
Macro Regime Fit: 4 / 20. Per the Roarable RQD rating, beta is 1.0 with sector sensitivity. This is the weakest pillar, indicating limited defensive characteristics in the current regime as scored.
Forensic Balance Sheet: 10 / 20. Per the Roarable RQD rating, Altman Z is 2.5, Piotroski F is 2/9, and Debt/Equity is 0.5. The Piotroski reading is weak and the Z-score sits in a range that warrants caution.

Educationally, the investor implication is a tradeoff: the stock trades at a low multiple and carries a high yield, which can attract value-oriented attention, but the rating framework weighs the negative FCF yield, weak Piotroski profile, and macro-sensitivity more heavily than the apparent cheapness. A prospective investor would need to examine whether the dividend yield is supported by cash generation before treating the low multiple as upside.

Financial Trend

Period	Revenue	Operating Income	Net Income	EPS	FCF	Cash	Debt
FY 2025 (filed 2025-09-30)	$0.0M	$0.0M	$376.6M	N/A	$-113.6M	N/A	N/A
FY 2024 (filed 2024-09-30)	$0.0M	$0.0M	$273.8M	N/A	$343.9M	$103.5M	N/A
FY 2023 (filed 2023-09-30)	$0.0M	$0.0M	$258.6M	N/A	$195.4M	N/A	N/A

Per the SEC financials, net income rose from $258.6M (FY 2023) to $273.8M (FY 2024) and $376.6M (FY 2025), while FCF moved from $195.4M to $343.9M and then to $-113.6M in FY 2025. Per the market data, gross, operating, and net margins are each reported as 0%, and the source does not provide revenue or operating income figures, so margin analysis is limited. Per the market data, ROIC is 9.6%. Per the Roarable RQD rating, the Altman Z-Score is 2.5 and the Piotroski F-Score is 2/9, with Debt/Equity at 0.5; the source does not provide the underlying cash or debt balances for FY 2025.

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

Per the recent news feed, all six items relate to GBDC. Catalysts and signals include:

A scheduled release of fiscal year 2026 fourth-quarter results (Yahoo Finance; Quiver Quantitative reports the date as November 17), flagged YELLOW.
Estimates coverage (TradingView), flagged YELLOW.
A Seeking Alpha analysis titled that the stock is "Exactly Priced With The Credit Cycle," flagged YELLOW.
A report that shares slipped to $12.12 as they tested a lower range, flagged RED under RISK WATCH.
A Stock Traders Daily item on behavioral patterns and institutional flows, flagged YELLOW.

Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, no supply-chain links or proprietary signals are mapped; the supply chain field is NONE. The headline-level RED flag on the lower-range test is the only risk-watch item in the feed.

Open Questions

What are FY 2025 revenue, operating income, cash, and debt balances? The source reports $0.0M revenue and operating income and N/A for cash and debt, so the balance sheet cannot be fully assessed.
Is the 11.1% dividend yield covered by cash generation, given FY 2025 FCF of $-113.6M and an FCF yield of -3.42%?
What drives the gap between FY 2024 FCF of $343.9M and FY 2025 FCF of $-113.6M?
What is the consensus analyst rating and price target? Analyst data is unavailable in the source.
What do insider, 13F, and Congressional flows show in direction and magnitude? Holder data is unavailable in the source.

GBDC Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Golub Capital BDC Inc. (GBDC) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to GBDC Debate Forum (3) ↓

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 8h ago

Golub Capital BDC, Inc. Schedules Release of Fiscal Year 2026 Fourth Quarter Results

Yahoo Finance report covering Golub Capital BDC Inc. (GBDC) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE TradingView • 11h ago

Golub Capital BDC, Inc. Estimates – NASDAQ:GBDC

TradingView report covering Golub Capital BDC Inc. (GBDC) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Seeking Alpha • 14h ago

Golub Capital BDC: Exactly Priced With The Credit Cycle (NASDAQ:GBDC)

Seeking Alpha report covering Golub Capital BDC Inc. (GBDC) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Quiver Quantitative • 17h ago

Golub Capital BDC Sets November 17 Date for Fiscal 2026 Fourth-Quarter Results

Quiver Quantitative report covering Golub Capital BDC Inc. (GBDC) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔴 RISK WATCH https://www.siam.in/ • 20h ago

Golub Capital BDC Inc. (GBDC) Slips to $12.12 as Shares Test Lower Range - Bearish Pattern Stocks

https://www.siam.in/ report covering Golub Capital BDC Inc. (GBDC) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Stock Traders Daily • 23h ago

Behavioral Patterns of GBDC and Institutional Flows

Stock Traders Daily report covering Golub Capital BDC Inc. (GBDC) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE 24/7 Wall St. • 1d ago

How to Build $12,100 a Month in Dividend Income From Three Income Buckets

24/7 Wall St. report covering Golub Capital BDC Inc. (GBDC) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Stock Titan • 1d ago

Calamos Strategic Total Return Fund (CSQ) Stock Price, News & Analysis

Stock Titan report covering Golub Capital BDC Inc. (GBDC) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

GBDC Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $12.72?

🐂 33% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON GBDC 🐻 67% BEARISH CONVICTION

RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $11.25 (-12.0%)

📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is GBDC (D- • RQD 40/100) a Buy at $12.78?

Welcome to the GBDC (Golub Capital BDC Inc.) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 40/100 (Roarable Sell — Vulnerable Balance Sheet & Flow) in Finance: Consumer Services. Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

SH ShortSeller_Dan Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $9.84 (-23.0%)

Spot @ $12.78

Pump the brakes on GBDC — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on GBDC, but look at what you are paying: 8.8x trailing P/E with tightening sector spreads. Unless Golub Capital BDC Inc. expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

MI MidwestValue Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $14.82 (+16.0%)

Spot @ $12.78

GBDC cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on GBDC, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Finance: Consumer Services and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $12.78 (52-wk range $11.77 - $14.41), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.