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Stock Ratings / Financials / GCMG / forecast
GDV (44) LCLN (57) APAM (59) NAN (45) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

GCM Grosvenor Inc. (Class A) (GCMG) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$12.64 +0.24% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $12.62

GCM Grosvenor Inc. (Class A) (GCMG) carries a Roarable Rating of C+ (Hold) with 69/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 69/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+2.0% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →
ROARABLE C+ • HOLD / WATCH Cap $2.56B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on GCMG Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is GCMG stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
▼

As of 2026-11-03, GCM Grosvenor Inc. (Class A) (NASDAQ: GCMG) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 69/100 at a spot price of $12.64 (+0.24% 1D, market cap $2.56B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 19/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 9/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 13/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, GCMG ranks #133 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does GCMG compare to GDV and LCLN in the Financials sector?
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Within the Financials sector (Investment Managers), GCMG carries a Roarable C+ (69/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 56.4x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 82.5%. By comparison, GDV (Gabelli Dividend & Income Trust of) holds a D grade (44/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $2.57B) and LCLN (Lincoln International Inc. (Class A)) posts a D+ grade (57/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $2.59B). Among the 5-stock peer group, APAM leads on earnings multiple (10.2x) while GCMG leads on capital efficiency (82.5% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for GCMG?
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Per GCMG's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001819796), GCM Grosvenor Inc. (Class A) generated $557.6M in revenue (+8.5% YoY), $45.4M in net income, and $175.0M in free cash flow against $813.8M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Priced at 56x earnings—high expectations leave less room for a lukewarm quarter.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $12.62 (-0.15%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 19/20 (A+) • 31.4% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 69/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+2.0% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 57.3% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C+
025507510069
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw B · Rk C
Cash (19)Whales (9)SEC (13)Macro (13)CEO (15)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+5% Base Target
$16 Bull$13 Base$10 Bear
📬 FREE GCMG RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for GCMG)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±5.7%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (69/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY GCMG SCORES 69/100 (C+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+19/20 pts (28% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 31.4% FCF Margin ($175.0M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+15/20 pts (22% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 75% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning9/20 pts (-11 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-11 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
77
Grade B+$12.84-2% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
74
Grade B+$12.58-3.8% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
72
Grade B$12.10+4.5% Next Q
Current
69
Grade C+$12.64+2% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: B+ (77) → C+ (69)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the GCMG Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 69/100 (C+) score, GCMG faces multiple-compression risk if 56.4x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Priced at 56x earnings—high expectations leave less room for a lukewarm quarter.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($12.92) or 200D SMA ($11.88) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($13.27) toward Bear Floor ($10.35).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $GCMG• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “GCMG Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 69%NO 31%Trade / Inspect Odds →
INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your GCMG Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $12.64: 791.1 sh
$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000
12M Bear Case FloorTarget $10.35
$8,188
$-1,812 (-18.1%)
12M Consensus BaseTarget $13.27
$10,498
+$498 (+5.0%)
12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $15.66
$12,389
+$2,389 (+23.9%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (28 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100
● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 2
Wall Street FirmStance12M Target1Y AccuracyTrack Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity DeskHOLD$1474%A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage LeadBUY$1569%B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap ResearchHOLD$1258%C
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (GCMG Tape Review)

  • ✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
  • ✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
  • ✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?
Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena
GCMG // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +14.29%📐 WEDGE COMPRESSION COIL
2026-11-03O $12.61H $12.64L $12.61C $12.64VOL 412.9K
RES: $13.31SUP: $12.07SMA50: $12.92SMA200: $11.88
$15.22$13.76$12.30$10.85$9.39RES $13.31SUP $12.07$12.642026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

GCMG Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 GCMG Butterfly Map → + Track GCMG →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
39.7%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +8.5% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on GCMG today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for GCMG. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for GCMG today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (GCMG)

Financials Rank #133 of 1096 ⚔️ GDV vs GCMG Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (GCMG vs. GDV, LCLN, APAM, NAN)

Industry: Investment Managers (79 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, GCM Grosvenor Inc. (Class A) (GCMG) ranks #133 by composite RQD confidence (69/100, grade C+) and #393 by equity capitalization ($2.56B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, APAM leads on earnings valuation at 10.2x trailing P/E, while GCMG leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 82.5% ROIC and — gross margin. GCMG currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 69/100 (C+).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
GCMG ACTIVE
GCM Grosvenor Inc. (Class A)
C+ 69/100 56.4x — 82.5% +0.24% $2.56B Benchmark Subject
GDV
Gabelli Dividend & Income Trust of
D 44/100 — — — -0.73% $2.57B /gdv-vs-gcmg →
LCLN
Lincoln International Inc. (Class A)
D+ 57/100 — — — -0.04% $2.59B /lcln-vs-gcmg →
APAM
Artisan Partners Asset Management Inc. (Class A)
C- 59/100 10.2x — 71.9% +0.52% $2.97B /apam-vs-gcmg →
NAN
Nuveen New York Quality Municipal Income Fund
D 45/100 — — — +0.40% $3.03B /nan-vs-gcmg →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001819796

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), GCM Grosvenor Inc. (Class A) (GCMG) reported GAAP revenue of $557.6M (+8.5% vs. FY2024 revenue of $514.0M , and +25.3% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $45.4M, operating cash flow of $183.5M, and free cash flow of $175.0M (+32.6% YoY). On the balance sheet, GCMG closed FY2025 with $813.8M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $557.6M $45.4M $183.5M $175.0M $813.8M —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $514.0M $18.7M $148.8M $132.0M $612.7M —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $445.0M $12.8M $92.1M $92.1M — —

3. GCMG Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is GCMG stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, GCM Grosvenor Inc. (Class A) (NASDAQ: GCMG) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 69/100 at a spot price of $12.64 (+0.24% 1D, market cap $2.56B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 19/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 9/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 13/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, GCMG ranks #133 in composite RQD confidence.

How does GCMG compare to GDV and LCLN in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Investment Managers), GCMG carries a Roarable C+ (69/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 56.4x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 82.5%. By comparison, GDV (Gabelli Dividend & Income Trust of) holds a D grade (44/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $2.57B) and LCLN (Lincoln International Inc. (Class A)) posts a D+ grade (57/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $2.59B). Among the 5-stock peer group, APAM leads on earnings multiple (10.2x) while GCMG leads on capital efficiency (82.5% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for GCMG?

Per GCMG's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001819796), GCM Grosvenor Inc. (Class A) generated $557.6M in revenue (+8.5% YoY), $45.4M in net income, and $175.0M in free cash flow against $813.8M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Priced at 56x earnings—high expectations leave less room for a lukewarm quarter.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is GCMG trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

GCMG last traded at $12.64 (+0.24% on volume of 412,948 shares), positioning the stock -2.17% below its 50-day simple moving average ($12.92) and +6.40% above its 200-day simple moving average ($11.88). Across its 52-week range of $9.30 to $14.87, GCMG sits at the 60.0% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 49.2 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±5.7% ($11.92 to $13.36).

GCMG Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is GCMG's 12-month stock price target?

GCM Grosvenor Inc. (Class A) (GCMG) carries a 12-month consensus base price target of $13.27 (+5% from $12.64), with a bull-case target of $15.66 and a bear-case floor of $10.35.

Is GCMG stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now?

Roarable's 5-Pillar RQD Quant Engine rates GCMG C+ (Hold — HOLD) with an RQD Confidence score of 69/100.

Direct Sub-Reports: GCMG RQD Cockpit GCMG 12M Forecast GCMG Earnings & Move GCMG Dividends & DRIP GCMG Insiders & 13F GCMG Whale Options GCMG Profit Sankey GCMG News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 69/100 (C+) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

GCMG — GCM Grosvenor Inc. (Class A): What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T15:25:27Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, GCMG scores 69 out of 100, a C+ grade with the verdict "Roarable Hold — Upper Neutral / Watch for Breakout." The five pillars are: Fundamental Cash Engine at 19/20 (ROIC 82.5%; FCF yield 6.85%), the strongest component and the main source of the score; Whale 13F Flow at 9/20 (institutional accumulation and options positioning), a weak reading; Insider Conviction at 15/20 (SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow), moderate; Macro Regime Fit at 13/20 (Beta 1.0; sector sensitivity), moderate; and Forensic Balance Sheet at 13/20 (Altman Z 2.5; Piotroski F 6/9; Debt/Equity 0.5), moderate. For a prospective investor, the upside case rests on cash generation and capital efficiency, while the valuation tradeoff is significant: per the market data, trailing P/E is 56.4 and forward P/E is 52.5, meaning price is high relative to reported earnings even as cash-based metrics look strong. The weaker institutional-flow and mid-range balance-sheet readings argue for patience and confirmation rather than conviction. This is an educational reading of the rating, not personalized advice.

Snapshot

PriceMarket CapP/E (TTM)Forward P/EEV/EBITDAEPS (TTM)Dividend YieldBeta52-Wk RangeROIC %
$12.61$2.56B56.452.516.50.220%1.0$9.3 - $14.8782.5%

Financial Trend

PeriodRevenueOperating IncomeNet IncomeEPSFCFCashDebt
FY 2025 (filed 2025-12-31)$557.6M$133.5M$45.4MN/A$175.0M$242.1MN/A
FY 2024 (filed 2024-12-31)$514.0M$73.5M$18.7MN/A$132.0M$89.5MN/A
FY 2023 (filed 2023-12-31)$445.0M$-11.8M$12.8MN/A$92.1MN/AN/A

Per the SEC financials, revenue grew from $445.0M (FY 2023) to $557.6M (FY 2025), and operating income moved from $-11.8M to $133.5M over the same span. Net income rose to $45.4M in FY 2025 from $18.7M in FY 2024. Per the market data, operating margin is 23.9%, net margin is 8.1%, gross margin is 0%, and ROIC is 82.5%. The Roarable RQD rating cites an Altman Z-Score of 2.5, a Piotroski F-Score of 6/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.5 under the forensic balance-sheet pillar. Reported cash rose to $242.1M in FY 2025 from $89.5M in FY 2024.

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

Per the recent news and catalysts feed, six items reference GCMG. Headlines are from Yahoo! Finance Canada, Yahoo Finance UK, The Globe and Mail, TradingView, Stock Traders Daily, and ad-hoc-news.de. Five are flagged YELLOW (market wire) and one is flagged RED (risk watch), sourced from Stock Traders Daily. The most specific catalyst headline is ad-hoc-news.de's report of a Proteus MHP investment rising to USD 145 million; the remaining items are general market-coverage reports with no additional specifics in the summaries. The Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph reports no supply-chain links and no proprietary signals.

Open Questions

  • What specific fee-related and carried-interest revenue drove the jump from $45.4M net income in FY 2025, and how much of it is recurring?
  • Reported EPS and debt are N/A in the financials; what is the actual debt load behind the Debt/Equity 0.5 figure?
  • What is the scale and terms of the Proteus MHP investment referenced in the news feed?
  • Why is the Whale 13F pillar scored only 9/20 when institutional filings are not provided in the source data?
  • Gross margin reads 0%; is that a data limitation or a true reporting characteristic for this business model?

GCMG Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for GCM Grosvenor Inc. (Class A) (GCMG) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to GCMG Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

GCMG Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $12.64?

🐂 50% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON GCMG 🐻 50% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on GCMG:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk ⚖️ DEBATE HOST 🎯 Target: $13.62 (+8.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is GCMG (C+ • RQD 69/100) a Buy at $12.61?

Welcome to the GCMG (GCM Grosvenor Inc. (Class A)) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 69/100 (Roarable Hold — Upper Neutral / Watch for Breakout) in Investment Managers. Bulls point to capital efficiency (82.5% ROIC), while bears focus on valuation multiple compression (56.4x trailing P/E). Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

MU MultipleCompression Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $9.71 (-23.0%)
Spot @ $12.61

Pump the brakes on GCMG — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on GCMG, but look at what you are paying: 56.4x trailing P/E with tightening sector spreads. Unless GCM Grosvenor Inc. (Class A) expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

QU QuantViper Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $15.26 (+21.0%)
Spot @ $12.61

GCMG cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on GCMG, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Investment Managers and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $12.61 (52-wk range $9.30 - $14.87), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.

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