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Stock Ratings / Materials / GEVO / earnings
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Gevo Inc. (GEVO) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±10.9% Move

$1.17 -6.40% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $1.15

Gevo Inc. (GEVO) carries a Roarable Rating of E (Strong Sell) with 26/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE E • RED ALERT Cap $309.0M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on GEVO Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is GEVO stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
▼

As of 2026-11-03, Gevo Inc. (NASDAQ: GEVO) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 26/100 at a spot price of $1.17 (-6.40% 1D, market cap $309.0M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 4/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 5/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 8/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 6/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 3/20. Across 270 tracked Materials issuers, GEVO ranks #252 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does GEVO compare to ASPI and OEC in the Materials sector?
▼

Within the Materials sector (Major Chemicals), GEVO carries a Roarable E (26/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -2.9%. By comparison, ASPI (ASP Isotopes Inc.) holds a E grade (21/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $309.7M) and OEC (Orion S.A.) posts a D- grade (39/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 2.2%, cap $316.5M). Among the 5-stock peer group, GEVO leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while NL leads on capital efficiency (3.4% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for GEVO?
▼

Per GEVO's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001392380), Gevo Inc. generated $160.6M in revenue (+849.3% YoY), -$33.8M in net income, and -$43.5M in free cash flow against $718.9M in total assets and $164.8M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Materials with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $1.15 (-1.34%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 4/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (26/100 · E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-10.5% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • E
025507510026
3-of-3 Quant Analysts Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw E · Rk D-
Cash (4)Whales (5)SEC (8)Macro (6)CEO (3)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-14.5% Base Target
$3 Bull$1 Base$1 Bear
📬 FREE GEVO RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for GEVO)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±10.9%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (26/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY GEVO SCORES 26/100 (E) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+8/20 pts (31% of score)

Altman Z-Score 0.20 (DISTRESS RISK (<1.8)) • Piotroski F-Score 5/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+6/20 pts (23% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 4% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 48.9 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
34
Grade E$1.29-12.4% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
31
Grade E$1.13+3.5% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
29
Grade E$1.17+0% Next Q
Current
26
Grade E$1.17-10.5% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: E (34) → E (26)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a GEVO Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While GEVO currently carries a cautious 26/100 (E) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Materials with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($1.40) and Max Pain ($1.23) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $3.12.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $GEVO• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “GEVO Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 26%NO 74%Trade / Inspect Odds →
NEXT EST. WINDOW: Dec 30, 2026 (~56 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±10.9% Swing Band

±$0.13 Expected Swing
$1.04 (-10.9%)Spot $1.17$1.30 (+10.9%)
MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

GEVO Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 26/100

Trailing EPS: $4.25 • YoY Revenue Growth: 180%

Model Bullish Setup (26/100)Model Risk Weight (74/100)
Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).
LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

PeriodFiledRevenueNet ProfitFree Cash FlowGross Margin
FY 20252025-12-31$160.6M-$33.8M-$43.5M52%
FY 20242024-12-31$16.9M-$78.6M-$108.5M52%
FY 20232023-12-31$17.2M-$66.2M-$53.7M52%
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring GEVO)

  • ✓Walkthrough of GEVO's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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GEVO // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -43.48%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-03O $1.21H $1.25L $1.17C $1.17VOL 2.97M
RES: $1.73SUP: $1.02SMA50: $1.40SMA200: $1.71
$2.25$1.93$1.62$1.31$0.99RES $1.73SUP $1.02$1.172026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

GEVO Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 GEVO Butterfly Map → + Track GEVO →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +849.3% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on GEVO today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for GEVO. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for GEVO today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (GEVO)

Materials Rank #252 of 270 ⚔️ ASPI vs GEVO Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Materials Peer Comparison (GEVO vs. ASPI, OEC, ALTO, NL)

Industry: Major Chemicals (67 Tracked Issuers)

Across 270 tracked Materials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Gevo Inc. (GEVO) ranks #252 by composite RQD confidence (26/100, grade E) and #198 by equity capitalization ($309.0M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, GEVO leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while NL leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 3.4% ROIC and 30.4% gross margin. ALTO currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 46/100 (D) compared with GEVO at 26/100 (E).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
GEVO ACTIVE
Gevo Inc.
E 26/100 — — -2.9% -6.40% $309.0M Benchmark Subject
ASPI
ASP Isotopes Inc.
E 21/100 — 14.3% -35.0% -3.96% $309.7M /aspi-vs-gevo →
OEC
Orion S.A.
D- 39/100 — 19.9% 2.2% +0.71% $316.5M /oec-vs-gevo →
ALTO
Alto Ingredients Inc.
D 46/100 — 3.8% 2.0% -4.11% $283.1M /alto-vs-gevo →
NL
NLI Holdings Inc.
D 46/100 — 30.4% 3.4% -2.53% $347.7M /nl-vs-gevo →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001392380 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Gevo Inc. (GEVO) reported GAAP revenue of $160.6M (+849.3% vs. FY2024 revenue of $16.9M , and +833.6% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$33.8M, operating cash flow of -$13.4M, and free cash flow of -$43.5M (+59.9% YoY). On the balance sheet, GEVO closed FY2025 with $718.9M in total assets against $164.8M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 0.20, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $160.6M -$33.8M -$13.4M -$43.5M $718.9M $164.8M
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $16.9M -$78.6M -$57.4M -$108.5M $583.9M $67.1M
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $17.2M -$66.2M -$53.7M -$53.7M — —

3. GEVO Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is GEVO stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Gevo Inc. (NASDAQ: GEVO) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 26/100 at a spot price of $1.17 (-6.40% 1D, market cap $309.0M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 4/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 5/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 8/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 6/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 3/20. Across 270 tracked Materials issuers, GEVO ranks #252 in composite RQD confidence.

How does GEVO compare to ASPI and OEC in the Materials sector?

Within the Materials sector (Major Chemicals), GEVO carries a Roarable E (26/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -2.9%. By comparison, ASPI (ASP Isotopes Inc.) holds a E grade (21/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $309.7M) and OEC (Orion S.A.) posts a D- grade (39/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 2.2%, cap $316.5M). Among the 5-stock peer group, GEVO leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while NL leads on capital efficiency (3.4% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for GEVO?

Per GEVO's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001392380), Gevo Inc. generated $160.6M in revenue (+849.3% YoY), -$33.8M in net income, and -$43.5M in free cash flow against $718.9M in total assets and $164.8M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Materials with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is GEVO trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

GEVO last traded at $1.17 (-6.40% on volume of 2,424,463 shares), positioning the stock -16.43% below its 50-day simple moving average ($1.40) and -31.58% below its 200-day simple moving average ($1.71). Across its 52-week range of $1.09 to $2.97, GEVO sits at the 4.3% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 48.9 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±10.9% ($1.04 to $1.30).

Direct Sub-Reports: GEVO RQD Cockpit GEVO 12M Forecast GEVO Earnings & Move GEVO Dividends & DRIP GEVO Insiders & 13F GEVO Whale Options GEVO Profit Sankey GEVO News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 26/100 (E) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

GEVO — Gevo Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Gevo Inc. (GEVO) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 26/100, corresponding to a E letter grade (Roarable Strong Sell) at a spot price of $1.17 (-6.40% 1D, market capitalization $309.0M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (4/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of -2.9%, gross margin of —, operating margin of -12.6%, and free cash flow yield of -14.55%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (5/20) + Insider Conviction (3/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (6/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (8/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 0.20, Piotroski F-Score of 5/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.35x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Gevo Inc. (GEVO) is a NASDAQ-listed operating company in the Major Chemicals industry (Materials sector) with an equity market capitalization of $309.0M. The business operates with a gross margin of 0%, an operating margin of -12.6%, and a return on invested capital (ROIC) of -2.9% (free cash flow yield of -14.55%). Within the Major Chemicals peer group, investor evaluation centers on operating leverage, unit margin durability, and capital allocation efficiency across market cycles.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Gevo Inc. (GEVO) reported $160.6M in annual revenue (up from $16.9M in FY2024, +849.3% YoY) and -$33.8M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($17.2M revenue, -$66.2M net income) through FY2025, GEVO scaled operating cash flow to -$13.4M and free cash flow to -$43.5M, backed by $718.9M in total assets against $164.8M in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (E • RQD 26/100): Established market leader in Materials with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of -14.55% and institutional whale pillar of 5/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 4/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 5/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $1.09 – $2.97 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation against -12.6% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Per the market data, beta is 1.0, which is the only sensitivity measure provided.

  • Key Question #1: Can GEVO sustain or expand its -12.6% operating margin and -2.9% ROIC against Major Chemicals peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $160.6M and free cash flow of -$43.5M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $164.8M in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is GEVO's equity valuation to Materials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

GEVO Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Gevo Inc. (GEVO) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to GEVO Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

GEVO Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $1.17?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON GEVO 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on GEVO:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
SI SiliconVal_Bull RQD DEBATE OPENER • Growth & Tech Investor 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $1.51 (+20.8%)
📌 Pinned Debate

FY 2025 revenue rose to $160.6M from $16.9M while the net loss narrowed to -$33.8M from -$78.6M.

FY 2025 revenue rose to $160.6M from $16.9M while the net loss narrowed to -$33.8M from -$78.6M.. When you look under the hood at GEVO, Fundamental Cash Engine is 4/20 with 0.0% gross margins and -2.9% ROIC. Bears are staring in the rearview mirror while institutional 13F flow (5/20) has been quietly accumulating below $2.97. My 12M target is $1.51.

ArenaChamp_24 🐂 BULL

@SiliconVal_Bull Agree on the RQD 26/100 quality, though with 1.0 beta I'm scaling in with half-size at $1.25 and keeping dry powder in case we test $1.16.

BE BearTrap_Alert RQD DEBATE OPENER • Cycle Peak Watcher 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $1.04 (-16.8%)
Spot @ $1.25

Free cash flow of -$43.5M, an Altman Z of 0.2, and an RQD grade of E point to severe cash burn and forensic distress risk.

Fading this rally in GEVO at $1.25. Free cash flow of -$43.5M, an Altman Z of 0.2, and an RQD grade of E point to severe cash burn and forensic distress risk.. With a beta of 1.0 and the stock sitting at $1.25 (52-wk range $1.09–$2.97), the easy multiple expansion is already priced in.

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