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Griffon Corporation (GFF) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$104.13 +3.01% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $104.50

Griffon Corporation (GFF) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 50/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $4.58B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on GFF Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is GFF stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
▼

As of 2026-11-03, Griffon Corporation (NYSE: GFF) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 50/100 at a spot price of $104.13 (+3.01% 1D, market cap $4.58B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 14/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 15/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 9/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 6/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 6/20. Across 486 tracked Industrials issuers, GFF ranks #224 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does GFF compare to BW and JBI in the Industrials sector?
▼

Within the Industrials sector (Building Products), GFF carries a Roarable D (50/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 91.2x, gross margin of 42.0%, and ROIC of 12.0%. By comparison, BW (Babcock & Wilcox Enterprises Inc.) holds a E grade (23/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 48.2%, cap $636.1M) and JBI (Janus International Group Inc.) posts a D+ grade (57/100 RQD, P/E 11.6x, ROIC 7.9%, cap $633.1M). Among the 5-stock peer group, JBI leads on earnings multiple (11.6x) while BW leads on capital efficiency (48.2% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for GFF?
▼

Per GFF's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-09-30, CIK 0000050725), Griffon Corporation generated $2.52B in revenue (-3.9% YoY), $51.1M in net income, and $0 in free cash flow against $2.05B in total assets and $1.35B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $104.49 (+0.35%)🧬 Disciplined Float (+0.44% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 14/20 (B-) • 5.1% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 50/100 (D) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-1.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 49.3% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D
025507510050
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk D-
Cash (14)Whales (15)SEC (9)Macro (6)CEO (6)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-3.6% Base Target
$118 Bull$100 Base$78 Bear
📬 FREE GFF RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for GFF)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±6.3%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (50/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY GFF SCORES 50/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+15/20 pts (30% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±6.3% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+14/20 pts (28% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 5.1% FCF Margin ($128.2M FCF) & 42% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution6/20 pts (-14 pt drag)

Disciplined Float (+0.44% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 14 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
42
Grade D$92.23+3% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
45
Grade D$94.99+5.5% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
47
Grade D$100.26+3.9% Next Q
Current
50
Grade D$104.13-1.4% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: D (42) → D (50)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a GFF Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While GFF currently carries a cautious 50/100 (D) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (6/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($96.00) and Max Pain ($109.34) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $118.45.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (+0.44% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $GFF• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “GFF Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 29, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 50%NO 50%Trade / Inspect Odds →
INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your GFF Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $104.13: 96.0 sh
$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000
12M Bear Case FloorTarget $78.30
$7,519
$-2,481 (-24.8%)
12M Consensus BaseTarget $100.38
$9,640
$-360 (-3.6%)
12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $118.45
$11,375
+$1,375 (+13.8%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (32 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100
● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 6
Wall Street FirmStance12M Target1Y AccuracyTrack Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity DeskHOLD$10474%A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage LeadUNDERPERFORM$11169%B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap ResearchSELL$8958%C
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring GFF)

  • ✓Walkthrough of GFF's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena
GFF // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +17.33%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-11-03O $102.9H $104.1L $101.1C $104.1VOL 323.4K
RES: $104.4SUP: $89.99SMA50: $96.00SMA200: $89.52
$110.7$101.8$92.98$84.11$75.25RES $104.4SUP $89.99$104.12026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

GFF Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 GFF Butterfly Map → + Track GFF →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
48.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -3.9% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on GFF today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for GFF. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for GFF today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (GFF)

Industrials Rank #224 of 486 ⚔️ BW vs GFF Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Industrials Peer Comparison (GFF vs. BW, JBI, MTEN, BRNX)

Industry: Building Products (12 Tracked Issuers)

Across 486 tracked Industrials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Griffon Corporation (GFF) ranks #224 by composite RQD confidence (50/100, grade D) and #153 by equity capitalization ($4.58B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, JBI leads on earnings valuation at 11.6x trailing P/E, while BW leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 48.2% ROIC and 24.5% gross margin. JBI currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 57/100 (D+) compared with GFF at 50/100 (D).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
GFF ACTIVE
Griffon Corporation
D 50/100 91.2x 42.0% 12.0% +3.01% $4.58B Benchmark Subject
BW
Babcock & Wilcox Enterprises Inc.
E 23/100 — 24.5% 48.2% -4.68% $636.1M /bw-vs-gff →
JBI
Janus International Group Inc.
D+ 57/100 11.6x 38.8% 7.9% +5.39% $633.1M /jbi-vs-gff →
MTEN
Mingteng International Corporation Inc. (Class A)
E 22/100 — 22.5% -1.6% -41.37% $6.5M /mten-vs-gff →
BRNX
BrenX Ltd.
E 29/100 — -30.0% -35.0% -6.26% $891.9K /brnx-vs-gff →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-09-30 • CIK 0000050725 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-09-30), Griffon Corporation (GFF) reported GAAP revenue of $2.52B (-3.9% vs. FY2024 revenue of $2.62B , and -6.2% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $51.1M, operating cash flow of $0, and free cash flow of $0 . On the balance sheet, GFF closed FY2025 with $2.05B in total assets against $1.35B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 3.31, Piotroski F-Score: 3/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-09-30 $2.52B $51.1M — — $2.05B $1.35B
FY2024 (FY) 2024-09-30 $2.62B $209.9M — — $2.33B $1.47B
FY2023 (FY) 2023-09-30 $2.69B $77.6M — — — —

3. GFF Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is GFF stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Griffon Corporation (NYSE: GFF) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 50/100 at a spot price of $104.13 (+3.01% 1D, market cap $4.58B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 14/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 15/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 9/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 6/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 6/20. Across 486 tracked Industrials issuers, GFF ranks #224 in composite RQD confidence.

How does GFF compare to BW and JBI in the Industrials sector?

Within the Industrials sector (Building Products), GFF carries a Roarable D (50/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 91.2x, gross margin of 42.0%, and ROIC of 12.0%. By comparison, BW (Babcock & Wilcox Enterprises Inc.) holds a E grade (23/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 48.2%, cap $636.1M) and JBI (Janus International Group Inc.) posts a D+ grade (57/100 RQD, P/E 11.6x, ROIC 7.9%, cap $633.1M). Among the 5-stock peer group, JBI leads on earnings multiple (11.6x) while BW leads on capital efficiency (48.2% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for GFF?

Per GFF's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-09-30, CIK 0000050725), Griffon Corporation generated $2.52B in revenue (-3.9% YoY), $51.1M in net income, and $0 in free cash flow against $2.05B in total assets and $1.35B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is GFF trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

GFF last traded at $104.13 (+3.01% on volume of 317,611 shares), positioning the stock +8.47% above its 50-day simple moving average ($96.00) and +16.32% above its 200-day simple moving average ($89.52). Across its 52-week range of $65.01 to $108.57, GFF sits at the 89.8% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 61.1 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±6.3% ($97.57 to $110.69).

Direct Sub-Reports: GFF RQD Cockpit GFF 12M Forecast GFF Earnings & Move GFF Dividends & DRIP GFF Insiders & 13F GFF Whale Options GFF Profit Sankey GFF News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 50/100 (D) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

GFF — Griffon Corporation: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-09-30

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Griffon Corporation (GFF) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 50/100, corresponding to a D letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $104.13 (+3.01% 1D, market capitalization $4.58B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (14/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 12.0%, gross margin of 42.0%, operating margin of 8.2%, and free cash flow yield of —.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (15/20) + Insider Conviction (6/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (6/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (9/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 3.31, Piotroski F-Score of 3/9, and Debt/Equity of 8.50x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Griffon Corporation (GFF) is a NYSE-listed issuer in the Industrials sector and Building Products industry,..7B. Per the market data, gross margin is 42%, operating margin is 8.2%, and net margin is 2%. — for detailed product lines, customer segments, or revenue mix.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-09-30), Griffon Corporation (GFF) reported $2.52B in annual revenue (up from $2.62B in FY2024, -3.9% YoY) and $51.1M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($2.69B revenue, $77.6M net income) through FY2025, GFF scaled operating cash flow to $0 and free cash flow to $0, backed by $2.05B in total assets against $1.35B in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D • RQD 50/100): Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side. Free cash flow yield of — and institutional whale pillar of 15/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 14/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 15/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $65.01 – $108.57 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh 91.2x trailing P/E and 23.6x EV/EBITDA against 8.2% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Operating in Building Products (Industrials), GFF carries a macro regime beta of 1.00 and gross margin of 42.0%.

  • Key Question #1: Can GFF sustain or expand its 8.2% operating margin and 12.0% ROIC against Building Products peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $2.52B and free cash flow of $0, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $1.35B in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is GFF's 84.8x forward P/E multiple to Industrials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

GFF Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Griffon Corporation (GFF) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to GFF Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

GFF Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $104.13?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON GFF 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on GFF:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
MI MidwestValue RQD DEBATE OPENER • Fundamental Long-Only 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $126.36 (+25.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Whale 13F Flow scores 16 / 20, the strongest RQD pillar, pointing to institutional accumulation and options positioning.

Don't sleep on GFF's setup in Industrials. Whale 13F Flow scores 16 / 20, the strongest RQD pillar, pointing to institutional accumulation and options positioning.. Beta of 1.0 means it moves fast when momentum turns, and the 5-pillar RQD gauge (50/100) backs up the fundamental quality.

RetailWhale_TX 🐂 BULL

Both sides have a point here — GFF's 9/20 balance sheet score keeps downside contained, so the real swing factor next earnings call is backlog and FCF conversion.

BE BearTrap_Alert RQD DEBATE OPENER • Cycle Peak Watcher 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $86.94 (-14.0%)
Spot @ $101.09

Free cash flow yield is 0% and P/E (TTM) is 91.2, leaving the stock's valuation unsupported by the cash the rating credits.

Fading this rally in GFF at $101.09. Free cash flow yield is 0% and P/E (TTM) is 91.2, leaving the stock's valuation unsupported by the cash the rating credits.. With a beta of 1.0 and the stock sitting at $101.09 (52-wk range $65.01–$108.57), the easy multiple expansion is already priced in.

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