Graphic Packaging Holding Company (GPK) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 54/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.
As of 2026-11-03, Graphic Packaging Holding Company (NYSE: GPK) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 54/100 at a spot price of $8.95 (+1.59% 1D, market cap $2.65B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 15/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 7/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 6/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, GPK ranks #465 in composite RQD confidence.
Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Containers/Packaging), GPK carries a Roarable D+ (54/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 5.9x, gross margin of 18.2%, and ROIC of 7.8%. By comparison, SON (Sonoco Products Company) holds a D+ grade (52/100 RQD, P/E 4.9x, ROIC 11.4%, cap $4.94B) and REYN (Reynolds Consumer Products Inc.) posts a B- grade (70/100 RQD, P/E 16.5x, ROIC 13.4%, cap $4.98B). Among the 5-stock peer group, SON leads on earnings multiple (4.9x) while WMS leads on capital efficiency (22.3% ROIC).
Per GPK's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001408075), Graphic Packaging Holding Company generated $8.58B in revenue (-2.2% YoY), $444.0M in net income, and $841.0M in free cash flow against $11.78B in total assets and $5.02B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (18% profit margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 9.8% FCF Margin ($841.0M FCF) & 18.2% Gross Margin
Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 5/9
Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (51.2) create a -14 pt regime headwind
While GPK currently carries a cautious 54/100 (D+) rating due to Macro Regime Fit (6/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.
Strong cash generator (18% profit margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.
Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($9.37) and Max Pain ($9.40) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $18.08.
Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Cannibal Buyback (-1.52% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.
Graphic Packaging Holding Company (GPK) advanced +1.59% to $8.95, trading at 9% of its 52-week range ($8.15 – $17.22). Stretched risk/reward at 6x P/E (8% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
Consumer packaging solutions provider Graphic Packaging Holding (NYSE:GPK) will be announcing earnings results this Tuesday before the bell. Here’s what to look for.
For questions about this article or underlying research, email help@trefis.com.
For questions about this article or underlying research, email help@trefis.com.
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Graphic Packaging (GPK) doesn't possess the right combination of the two key ingredients for a likely earnings beat in its upcoming report. Get prepared with the key expectations.
Wells Fargo analyst Richard Carlson maintains Graphic Packaging Holding (NYSE:GPK) with a Underweight and lowers the price target from $10 to $9.
In recent years, Graphic Packaging Holding has reported an annual revenue decline of 2.5% and a steep 36.8% annual drop in earnings per share, while forecasts for the next twelve months point to flat sales as customers d
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
vs. -2.2% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on GPK today. View full Setup Ledger →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for GPK. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Graphic Packaging Holding Company (GPK) ranks #465 by composite RQD confidence (54/100, grade D+) and #380 by equity capitalization ($2.65B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, SON leads on earnings valuation at 4.9x trailing P/E, while WMS leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 22.3% ROIC and 38.3% gross margin. WMS currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 71/100 (B-) compared with GPK at 54/100 (D+).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPK
ACTIVE
Graphic Packaging Holding Company | D+ | 54/100 | 5.9x | 18.2% | 7.8% | +1.59% | $2.65B | Benchmark Subject |
| SON Sonoco Products Company | D+ | 52/100 | 4.9x | 20.9% | 11.4% | +0.14% | $4.94B | /son-vs-gpk → |
| REYN Reynolds Consumer Products Inc. | B- | 70/100 | 16.5x | 24.6% | 13.4% | +0.13% | $4.98B | /reyn-vs-gpk → |
| OI O-I Glass Inc. | D- | 37/100 | — | 17.3% | -10.0% | -3.21% | $788.2M | /oi-vs-gpk → |
| WMS Advanced Drainage Systems Inc. | B- | 71/100 | 24.0x | 38.3% | 22.3% | -0.80% | $10.21B | /wms-vs-gpk → |
In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Graphic Packaging Holding Company (GPK) reported GAAP revenue of $8.58B (-2.2% vs. FY2024 revenue of $8.78B , and -8.5% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $444.0M, operating cash flow of $841.0M, and free cash flow of $841.0M (+0.1% YoY). On the balance sheet, GPK closed FY2025 with $11.78B in total assets against $5.02B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $8.58B | $444.0M | $841.0M | $841.0M | $11.78B | $5.02B |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-31 | $8.78B | $658.0M | $840.0M | $840.0M | $11.14B | $5.14B |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-12-31 | $9.38B | $723.0M | $1.14B | $1.14B | — | — |
As of 2026-11-03, Graphic Packaging Holding Company (NYSE: GPK) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 54/100 at a spot price of $8.95 (+1.59% 1D, market cap $2.65B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 15/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 7/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 6/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, GPK ranks #465 in composite RQD confidence.
Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Containers/Packaging), GPK carries a Roarable D+ (54/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 5.9x, gross margin of 18.2%, and ROIC of 7.8%. By comparison, SON (Sonoco Products Company) holds a D+ grade (52/100 RQD, P/E 4.9x, ROIC 11.4%, cap $4.94B) and REYN (Reynolds Consumer Products Inc.) posts a B- grade (70/100 RQD, P/E 16.5x, ROIC 13.4%, cap $4.98B). Among the 5-stock peer group, SON leads on earnings multiple (4.9x) while WMS leads on capital efficiency (22.3% ROIC).
Per GPK's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001408075), Graphic Packaging Holding Company generated $8.58B in revenue (-2.2% YoY), $444.0M in net income, and $841.0M in free cash flow against $11.78B in total assets and $5.02B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (18% profit margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
GPK last traded at $8.95 (+1.59% on volume of 9,906,676 shares), positioning the stock -4.48% below its 50-day simple moving average ($9.37) and -15.65% below its 200-day simple moving average ($10.61). Across its 52-week range of $8.15 to $17.22, GPK sits at the 8.8% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 51.2 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±7.8% ($8.25 to $9.65).
Why GPK Stock advanced +1.59% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Stretched risk/reward at 6x P/E (8% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
Per the Roarable RQD rating, GPK scores 53 out of 100, a D+ grade, with the verdict "Roarable Sell — Weak Fundamentals / Trim." The fundamental cash engine pillar scores 15 out of 20, with ROIC at 7.8% and FCF yield at 0%. The whale 13F flow pillar scores 6 out of 20, reflecting institutional accumulation and options positioning. The insider conviction pillar scores 13 out of 20, based on SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow. The macro regime fit pillar scores 6 out of 20, with beta at 1.0 and a sector sensitivity read. The forensic balance sheet pillar scores 13 out of 20, supported by an Altman Z of 2.5, a Piotroski F of 5/9, and a Debt/Equity of 1.51.
For a prospective investor evaluating the stock today, the rating points to a mixed picture. The cash-generation and balance-sheet pillars carry the score, while the flow and macro-fit pillars drag it down. The 0% FCF yield means the rating does not credit the stock with free-cash-flow support at the current price. The low P/E multiples in the market data sit alongside this weak rating, so any valuation appeal would need to be weighed against the fundamental and flow weaknesses the rating captures.
| Period | Revenue | Operating Income | Net Income | EPS | FCF | Cash | Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY 2025 | $8581.0M | $804.0M | $444.0M | N/A | $841.0M | $261.0M | $5022.0M |
| FY 2024 | $8775.0M | $1119.0M | $658.0M | N/A | $840.0M | $157.0M | $5145.0M |
| FY 2023 | $9383.0M | $1174.0M | $723.0M | N/A | $1144.0M | N/A | N/A |
Per the SEC financials, revenue declined from $9383.0M in FY 2023 to $8581.0M in FY 2025, and net income declined from $723.0M to $444.0M over the same span. Per the market data, gross margin is 18.2%, operating margin 9.4%, and net margin 5.2%, with ROIC at 7.8%. Per the Roarable RQD rating, the Altman Z-Score is 2.5 and the Piotroski F-Score is 5/9. Debt/Equity is 1.51 per the RQD rating, and reported debt was $5022.0M against cash of $261.0M in FY 2025.
Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Graphic Packaging Holding Company (GPK) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below
Consumer packaging solutions provider Graphic Packaging Holding (NYSE:GPK) will be announcing earnings results this Tuesday before the bell. Here’s what to look for.
For questions about this article or underlying research, email help@trefis.com.
For questions about this article or underlying research, email help@trefis.com.
Volatility cuts both ways - while it creates opportunities, it also increases risk, making sharp declines just as likely as big gains. This unpredictability can shake out even the most experienced investors.
Amcor (AMCR) doesn't possess the right combination of the two key ingredients for a likely earnings beat in its upcoming report. Get prepared with the key expectations.
Constellium (CSTM) delivered earnings and revenue surprises of +13.51% and +4.23%, respectively, for the quarter ended September 2026. Do the numbers hold clues to what lies ahead for the stock?
The company believes some of the information it received about the mill during the acquisition was “either incomplete or inaccurate,” CEO Arsen Kitch said during an earnings call Monday.
Graphic Packaging (GPK) doesn't possess the right combination of the two key ingredients for a likely earnings beat in its upcoming report. Get prepared with the key expectations.
Welcome to the GPK (Graphic Packaging Holding Company) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 53/100 (Roarable Sell — Weak Fundamentals / Trim) in Containers/Packaging. Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.
Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on GPK, but look at what you are paying: 5.9x trailing P/E with 18.2% gross margins. Unless Graphic Packaging Holding Company expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.
Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on GPK, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Containers/Packaging and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $8.81 (52-wk range $8.15 - $17.22), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.
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