What is GPK's options positioning and volatility profile?

Roarable tracks verified CBOE unusual options sweeps, put/call ratios, and OHLCV realized volatility bands for GPK.

Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / GPK / options

SON (52) REYN (70) OI (37) WMS (71) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Graphic Packaging Holding Company (GPK) Options Positioning, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps

$9.33 +4.25% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $9.38

Graphic Packaging Holding Company (GPK) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 54/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID Cap $2.65B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is GPK stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-03, Graphic Packaging Holding Company (NYSE: GPK) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 54/100 at a spot price of $9.33 (+4.25% 1D, market cap $2.65B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 15/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 7/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 6/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 13/20. Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, GPK ranks #463 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does GPK compare to SON and REYN in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

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Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Containers/Packaging), GPK carries a Roarable D+ (54/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 5.9x, gross margin of 18.2%, and ROIC of 7.8%. By comparison, SON (Sonoco Products Company) holds a D+ grade (52/100 RQD, P/E 4.9x, ROIC 11.4%, cap $4.94B) and REYN (Reynolds Consumer Products Inc.) posts a B- grade (70/100 RQD, P/E 16.5x, ROIC 13.4%, cap $4.98B). Among the 5-stock peer group, SON leads on earnings multiple (4.9x) while WMS leads on capital efficiency (22.3% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for GPK?

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Per GPK's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001408075), Graphic Packaging Holding Company generated $8.58B in revenue (-2.2% YoY), $444.0M in net income, and $841.0M in free cash flow against $11.78B in total assets and $5.02B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (18.2% gross margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $9.38 (+0.57%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.52% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 15/20 (B) • 9.8% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 54/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.7% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 51.0% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk D

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-1.8% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for GPK)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±7.8%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (54/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY GPK SCORES 54/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+15/20 pts (28% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 9.8% FCF Margin ($841.0M FCF) & 18.2% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (24% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 5/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit6/20 pts (-14 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (51.2) create a -14 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade D$8.40+1.1% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade D$8.49+2.4% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C-$8.69+7.4% Next Q

Current

Grade D+$9.33-0.7% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: D (46) → D+ (54)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a GPK Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While GPK currently carries a cautious 54/100 (D+) rating due to Macro Regime Fit (6/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Strong cash generator (18.2% gross margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($9.37) and Max Pain ($9.80) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $18.08.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Cannibal Buyback (-1.52% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $GPK• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “GPK Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 54%NO 46%Trade / Inspect Odds →

CALL VS. PUT WHALE SHARE

— (No Active Options Snapshot)

Put/Call Ratio: — (No Active Options Snapshot)

MAX-PAIN EXPIRATION MAGNET

— (No Active Options Snapshot)

No active options chain max-pain snapshot on file

HISTORICAL 20D VOLATILITY SWING

±7.8%

Derived from 20D OHLCV bars (No Active Options Snapshot)

Active Strike Call vs. Put Concentration Ladder (GPK)

— (No Active Options Snapshot) — No unusual CBOE strike concentration anomalies recorded in the current database snapshot for GPK.

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Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring GPK)

✓Walkthrough of GPK's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
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GPK // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -2.41%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE

2026-11-03O $8.81H $9.33L $8.81C $9.33VOL 9.91M

RES: $13.08SUP: $7.83SMA50: $9.37SMA200: $10.61

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

GPK Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 GPK Butterfly Map → + Track GPK →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle

-11.1%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -2.2% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on GPK today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for GPK. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for GPK today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (GPK)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #463 of 1009 ⚔️ SON vs GPK Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (GPK vs. SON, REYN, OI, WMS)

Industry: Containers/Packaging (17 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Graphic Packaging Holding Company (GPK) ranks #463 by composite RQD confidence (54/100, grade D+) and #378 by equity capitalization ($2.65B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, SON leads on earnings valuation at 4.9x trailing P/E, while WMS leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 22.3% ROIC and 38.3% gross margin. WMS currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 71/100 (B-) compared with GPK at 54/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
GPK ACTIVE Graphic Packaging Holding Company	D+	54/100	5.9x	18.2%	7.8%	+4.25%	$2.65B	Benchmark Subject
SON Sonoco Products Company	D+	52/100	4.9x	20.9%	11.4%	+0.50%	$4.94B	/son-vs-gpk →
REYN Reynolds Consumer Products Inc.	B-	70/100	16.5x	24.6%	13.4%	+4.32%	$4.98B	/reyn-vs-gpk →
OI O-I Glass Inc.	D-	37/100	—	17.3%	-10.0%	+1.56%	$788.2M	/oi-vs-gpk →
WMS Advanced Drainage Systems Inc.	B-	71/100	24.0x	38.3%	22.3%	+2.63%	$10.21B	/wms-vs-gpk →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001408075 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Graphic Packaging Holding Company (GPK) reported GAAP revenue of $8.58B (-2.2% vs. FY2024 revenue of $8.78B , and -8.5% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $444.0M, operating cash flow of $841.0M, and free cash flow of $841.0M (+0.1% YoY). On the balance sheet, GPK closed FY2025 with $11.78B in total assets against $5.02B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$8.58B	$444.0M	$841.0M	$841.0M	$11.78B	$5.02B
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$8.78B	$658.0M	$840.0M	$840.0M	$11.14B	$5.14B
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$9.38B	$723.0M	$1.14B	$1.14B	—	—

3. GPK Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is GPK stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does GPK compare to SON and REYN in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for GPK?

Where is GPK trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

GPK last traded at $9.33 (+4.25% on volume of 10,659,895 shares), positioning the stock -0.43% below its 50-day simple moving average ($9.37) and -12.06% below its 200-day simple moving average ($10.61). Across its 52-week range of $8.15 to $17.22, GPK sits at the 13.0% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 51.2 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±7.8% ($8.60 to $10.06).

Direct Sub-Reports: GPK RQD Cockpit GPK 12M Forecast GPK Earnings & Move GPK Dividends & DRIP GPK Insiders & 13F GPK Whale Options GPK Profit Sankey GPK News & Why

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 54/100 (D+) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

GPK — Graphic Packaging Holding Company: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit

Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Graphic Packaging Holding Company (GPK) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 54/100, corresponding to a D+ letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $9.33 (+4.25% 1D, market capitalization $2.65B).

Fundamental Cash Engine (15/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 7.8%, gross margin of 18.2%, operating margin of 9.4%, and free cash flow yield of —.
Whale 13F & Options Flow (7/20) + Insider Conviction (13/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
Macro Regime Fit (6/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (13/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 5/9, and Debt/Equity of 1.51x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Is a NYSE-listed issuer classified under the Consumer Discretionary sector and the Containers/Packaging industry. The profile does not describe its products, customers, or revenue model.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Graphic Packaging Holding Company (GPK) reported $8.58B in annual revenue (up from $8.78B in FY2024, -2.2% YoY) and $444.0M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($9.38B revenue, $723.0M net income) through FY2025, GPK scaled operating cash flow to $841.0M and free cash flow to $841.0M, backed by $11.78B in total assets against $5.02B in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

🐂 Primary Bull Case (D+ • RQD 54/100): Strong cash generator (18.2% gross margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Free cash flow yield of — and institutional whale pillar of 7/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 15/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 7/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $8.15 – $17.22 52-week range.
🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Investors must weigh 5.9x trailing P/E and 9.2x EV/EBITDA against 9.4% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Operating in Containers/Packaging (Consumer Discretionary), GPK carries a macro regime beta of 1.00 and gross margin of 18.2%.

Key Question #1: Can GPK sustain or expand its 9.4% operating margin and 7.8% ROIC against Containers/Packaging peers over the next 4 quarters?
Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $8.58B and free cash flow of $841.0M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $5.02B in total debt?
Key Question #3: How sensitive is GPK's 5.5x forward P/E multiple to Consumer Discretionary capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

GPK Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Graphic Packaging Holding Company (GPK) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to GPK Debate Forum (3) ↓

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo • 1d ago

Graphic Packaging Holding (GPK) reports Q3: everything you need to know ahead of earnings

Consumer packaging solutions provider Graphic Packaging Holding (NYSE:GPK) will be announcing earnings results this Tuesday before the bell. Here’s what to look for.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo • 2d ago

What Just Happened To Smurfit WestRock Stock?

For questions about this article or underlying research, email help@trefis.com.

Read Full Source ↗

🔴 RISK WATCH Yahoo • 4d ago

Why Is Smurfit WestRock Stock Falling?

For questions about this article or underlying research, email help@trefis.com.

Read Full Source ↗

🔴 RISK WATCH Yahoo • 5d ago

1 volatile stock worth your attention and 2 we ignore

Volatility cuts both ways - while it creates opportunities, it also increases risk, making sharp declines just as likely as big gains. This unpredictability can shake out even the most experienced investors.

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🟢 CATALYST Yahoo • 6d ago

Amcor (AMCR) Earnings Expected to Grow: What to Know Ahead of Next Week's Release

Amcor (AMCR) doesn't possess the right combination of the two key ingredients for a likely earnings beat in its upcoming report. Get prepared with the key expectations.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST Yahoo • 6d ago

Constellium (CSTM) Beats Q3 Earnings and Revenue Estimates

Constellium (CSTM) delivered earnings and revenue surprises of +13.51% and +4.23%, respectively, for the quarter ended September 2026. Do the numbers hold clues to what lies ahead for the stock?

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo • 6d ago

Clearwater weighing options after failures at mill acquired from Graphic Packaging

The company believes some of the information it received about the mill during the acquisition was “either incomplete or inaccurate,” CEO Arsen Kitch said during an earnings call Monday.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST Yahoo • 7d ago

Analysts Estimate Graphic Packaging (GPK) to Report a Decline in Earnings: What to Look Out for

Graphic Packaging (GPK) doesn't possess the right combination of the two key ingredients for a likely earnings beat in its upcoming report. Get prepared with the key expectations.

Read Full Source ↗

🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

GPK Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $9.33?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON GPK 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION

MA MacroHawk_NYC RQD DEBATE OPENER • Cross-Asset Macro Desk 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $11.01 (+23.0%)

📌 Pinned Debate

The stock trades at a P/E of 5.9 and a forward P/E of 5.5 with a 4.91% dividend yield, and FY 2025 free cash flow of $841.0M was report

The street is overcomplicating Graphic Packaging Holding Company (GPK). The stock trades at a P/E of 5.9 and a forward P/E of 5.5 with a 4.91% dividend yield, and FY 2025 free cash flow of $841.0M was reported.. With an RQD score of 54/100 (D+) and Forensic Balance Sheet at 13/20, any positive earnings surprise or guidance raise forces underweight funds to chase above $9.67.

VolSurface_Trader 🐂 BULL

@CreditSpread_Watch Shorting a 7/20 institutional whale-flow stock at $8.95 is dangerous when funds are rotating into Consumer Discretionary.

CR CreditSpread_Watch RQD DEBATE OPENER • Balance Sheet Analyst 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $7.16 (-20.0%)

Spot @ $8.95

Revenue fell from $9.38B in FY 2023 to $8.58B in FY 2025, net income fell from $723.0M to $444.0M, and the RQD score is 53 with a 0

Revenue fell from $9.38B in FY 2023 to $8.58B in FY 2025, net income fell from $723.0M to $444.0M, and the RQD score is 53 with a 0% FCF yield.. Look at the math on GPK: paying 5.9x trailing P/E for 7.8% ROIC and 9.4% operating margins leaves zero margin of safety if Containers/Packaging demand softens. I'd wait for a retest of $7.88 before getting long.