Granite Point Mortgage Trust Inc. (GPMT) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$4.27 -2.95% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $4.24

Granite Point Mortgage Trust Inc. (GPMT) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 43/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D- • SELL / AVOID Cap $20.6M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is GPMT stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Granite Point Mortgage Trust Inc. (NYSE: GPMT) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 43/100 at a spot price of $4.27 (-2.95% 1D, market cap $20.6M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 7/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 3/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 12/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, GPMT ranks #881 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does GPMT compare to LFT and MDRR in the Financials sector?
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Within the Financials sector (Real Estate Investment Trusts), GPMT carries a Roarable D- (43/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -7.4%. By comparison, LFT (Lument Finance Trust Inc.) holds a D- grade (37/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -1.3%, cap $20.3M) and MDRR (Medalist Diversified Inc.) posts a C- grade (59/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 6.4%, cap $19.1M). Among the 5-stock peer group, GPMT leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while AHT leads on capital efficiency (85.0% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for GPMT?
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Per GPMT's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001703644), Granite Point Mortgage Trust Inc. generated $0 in revenue, -$41.2M in net income, and $2.7M in free cash flow against $1.76B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $4.24 (-0.72%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 7/20 (D-) • 0.1% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (43/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-6.7% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D-
025507510043
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- · Rk D+
Cash (7)Whales (3)SEC (13)Macro (8)CEO (12)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-6.8% Base Target
$30 Bull$4 Base$3 Bear
📬 FREE GPMT RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for GPMT)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (43/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY GPMT SCORES 43/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (30% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 4/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+12/20 pts (28% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 60% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-16 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
51
Grade C-$5.76-18.1% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
48
Grade D$4.72+4.4% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
46
Grade D$4.93-13.4% Next Q
Current
43
Grade D-$4.27-6.7% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C- (51) → D- (43)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a GPMT Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While GPMT currently carries a cautious 43/100 (D-) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($7.67) and Max Pain ($4.48) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $29.93.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $GPMT• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “GPMT Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your GPMT Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $4.27: 2341.9 sh
$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000
12M Bear Case FloorTarget $3.10
$7,260
$-2,740 (-27.4%)
12M Consensus BaseTarget $3.98
$9,321
$-679 (-6.8%)
12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $29.93
$70,094
+$60,094 (+600.9%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (35 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100
● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 9
Wall Street FirmStance12M Target1Y AccuracyTrack Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity DeskHOLD$474%A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage LeadUNDERPERFORM$2869%B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap ResearchSELL$458%C
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring GPMT)

  • ✓Walkthrough of GPMT's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
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RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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GPMT // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -69.72%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT
2026-11-03O $4.40H $4.40L $4.27C $4.27VOL 66.0K
RES: $14.42SUP: $4.03SMA50: $7.67SMA200: $13.47
$24.81$19.22$13.63$8.04$2.44RES $14.42SUP $4.03$4.272026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

GPMT Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on GPMT today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for GPMT. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for GPMT today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (GPMT)

Financials Rank #881 of 1096 ⚔️ LFT vs GPMT Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (GPMT vs. LFT, MDRR, NYC, AHT)

Industry: Real Estate Investment Trusts (172 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Granite Point Mortgage Trust Inc. (GPMT) ranks #881 by composite RQD confidence (43/100, grade D-) and #1052 by equity capitalization ($20.6M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, GPMT leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while AHT leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 85.0% ROIC and — gross margin. MDRR currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 59/100 (C-) compared with GPMT at 43/100 (D-).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
GPMT ACTIVE
Granite Point Mortgage Trust Inc.
D- 43/100 — — -7.4% -2.95% $20.6M Benchmark Subject
LFT
Lument Finance Trust Inc.
D- 37/100 — — -1.3% -0.77% $20.3M /lft-vs-gpmt →
MDRR
Medalist Diversified Inc.
C- 59/100 — — 6.4% +11.70% $19.1M /mdrr-vs-gpmt →
NYC
American Strategic Investment Co. (Class A)
D- 37/100 — — 5.5% +2.40% $18.9M /nyc-vs-gpmt →
AHT
Ashford Hospitality Trust Inc
D- 41/100 — — 85.0% -3.02% $16.6M /aht-vs-gpmt →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001703644

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Granite Point Mortgage Trust Inc. (GPMT) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of -$41.2M, operating cash flow of $2.7M, and free cash flow of $2.7M (-69.5% YoY). On the balance sheet, GPMT closed FY2025 with $1.76B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $0 -$41.2M $2.7M $2.7M $1.76B —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $0 -$207.1M $8.8M $8.8M $2.12B —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $0 -$63.2M $52.1M $52.1M — —

3. GPMT Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is GPMT stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Granite Point Mortgage Trust Inc. (NYSE: GPMT) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 43/100 at a spot price of $4.27 (-2.95% 1D, market cap $20.6M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 7/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 3/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 12/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, GPMT ranks #881 in composite RQD confidence.

How does GPMT compare to LFT and MDRR in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Real Estate Investment Trusts), GPMT carries a Roarable D- (43/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -7.4%. By comparison, LFT (Lument Finance Trust Inc.) holds a D- grade (37/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -1.3%, cap $20.3M) and MDRR (Medalist Diversified Inc.) posts a C- grade (59/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 6.4%, cap $19.1M). Among the 5-stock peer group, GPMT leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while AHT leads on capital efficiency (85.0% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for GPMT?

Per GPMT's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001703644), Granite Point Mortgage Trust Inc. generated $0 in revenue, -$41.2M in net income, and $2.7M in free cash flow against $1.76B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is GPMT trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

GPMT last traded at $4.27 (-2.95% on volume of 65,958 shares), positioning the stock -44.33% below its 50-day simple moving average ($7.67) and -68.30% below its 200-day simple moving average ($13.47). Across its 52-week range of $4.18 to $28.50, GPMT sits at the 0.4% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 19.5 (OVERSOLD (<32)) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($3.74 to $4.80).

GPMT Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is GPMT's 12-month stock price target?

Granite Point Mortgage Trust Inc. (GPMT) carries a 12-month consensus base price target of $3.98 (-6.8% from $4.27), with a bull-case target of $29.93 and a bear-case floor of $3.1.

Is GPMT stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now?

Roarable's 5-Pillar RQD Quant Engine rates GPMT D- (Sell — SELL) with an RQD Confidence score of 43/100.

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 43/100 (D-) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

GPMT — Granite Point Mortgage Trust Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T15:49:44Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, GPMT scores 43 out of 100 with a letter grade of D-, labeled "Roarable Sell — Vulnerable Balance Sheet & Flow." Across the five pillars, the fundamental cash engine scores 7 out of 20 (ROIC of -7.4% and an FCF yield of 12.58%), indicating weak returns on invested capital despite a high cash-flow yield relative to price. The whale 13F flow pillar scores 3 out of 20, reflecting weak institutional accumulation and options positioning. Insider conviction scores 12 out of 20 on SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow. Macro regime fit scores 8 out of 20, with a beta of 1.0 and sector sensitivity as the stated driver. The forensic balance sheet pillar scores 13 out of 20, supported by an Altman Z of 2.5, a Piotroski F of 4 out of 9, and a debt-to-equity of 0.5.

For a prospective investor evaluating the stock today, the upside case rests mainly on the high FCF yield and the 52-week low-to-high price range, which shows the stock has fallen sharply from $28.5 to $4.18 and currently trades at $4.4. The valuation tradeoff is that the earnings-based multiples are not available in source data, so the cheapness signal cannot be checked against earnings. The weak ROIC and negative net income figures in the financials argue that the cash yield may not translate into shareholder returns. Relative to the rating's own framing, the combination of low institutional flow and a vulnerable balance sheet implies that a recovery would depend on improvement in those areas rather than on current momentum.

Financial Trend

PeriodRevenueOperating IncomeNet IncomeEPSFCFCashDebt
FY 2025$0.0M$0.0M$-41.2MN/A$2.7M$66.0MN/A
FY 2024$0.0M$0.0M$-207.1MN/A$8.8M$87.8MN/A
FY 2023$0.0M$0.0M$-63.2MN/A$52.1MN/AN/A

Per the SEC financials, reported net income was negative across all three periods, and operating margin, gross margin, and net margin are each recorded as 0% in the market data. Per the Roarable RQD rating, ROIC is -7.4%, the Altman Z-Score is 2.5, and the Piotroski F-Score is 4 out of 9. Cash declined from $87.8M in FY 2024 to $66.0M in FY 2025, and reported debt is not available in source data, so the balance sheet posture can be described only in terms of the 0.5 debt-to-equity ratio and the Altman and Piotroski readings cited in the rating.

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

  • Balance sheet repair framing: A Yahoo Finance headline, per the recent news feed, describes analysts weighing balance sheet repair for GPMT.
  • Reverse stock split: Business Wire and Investing.com both report completion of a reverse stock split, with Investing.com specifying a 1-for-10 ratio.
  • Repurchase facility increase: TradingView reports that GPMT lifted its JPMorgan repurchase facility to $727 Million.
  • Institutional holding: Stock Titan reports a Vanguard stake with voting power over 304,474 shares.
  • Forecast coverage: MarketBeat carries a 2026 stock forecast and price target article, but no target values are provided in source data.
  • Risk watch: The reverse split and the sharp decline from the 52-week high, together with the rating's "Vulnerable Balance Sheet & Flow" label, mark balance sheet and flow as the primary watch items. Every news item is tagged YELLOW in the feed.
  • Proprietary signals: None are present in the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph.

Butterfly Effect: 2nd-Order Supply-Chain & Sector Ripples

Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, the supply chain is recorded as NONE, with no butterfly links and no proprietary signals. Upstream and downstream dependencies, sector correlations, and second-order bottlenecks are therefore not available in source data. The only sector context provided is the Financials / Real Estate Investment Trusts classification, with a beta of 1.0. An investor should note that the rating attributes weak macro regime fit partly to sector sensitivity, but the source data does not quantify that sensitivity or identify specific linked issuers.

Open Questions

  • What are GPMT's reported revenue and operating income figures, given that the financials show $0.0M for both across all periods?
  • What are the current debt levels and debt maturity profile, since debt is listed as N/A in every period?
  • What is the reason for the 1-for-10 reverse stock split, and how does it affect share count and per-share comparisons?
  • What analyst price targets and consensus ratings exist for GPMT, given the forecast article is referenced but no values are provided?
  • What are the specific drivers of the sector sensitivity and balance sheet repair referenced in the rating and news feed?

GPMT Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Granite Point Mortgage Trust Inc. (GPMT) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to GPMT Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

GPMT Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $4.27?

🐂 33% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON GPMT 🐻 67% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on GPMT:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $3.87 (-12.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is GPMT (D- • RQD 43/100) a Buy at $4.40?

Welcome to the GPMT (Granite Point Mortgage Trust Inc.) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 43/100 (Roarable Sell — Vulnerable Balance Sheet & Flow) in Real Estate Investment Trusts. Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

VA ValDiscipline Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $3.52 (-20.0%)
Spot @ $4.40

Pump the brakes on GPMT — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on GPMT, but look at what you are paying: current EV/EBITDA multiples with tightening sector spreads. Unless Granite Point Mortgage Trust Inc. expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

AL AlphaFlow_Cap Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $5.19 (+18.0%)
Spot @ $4.40

GPMT cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on GPMT, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Real Estate Investment Trusts and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $4.40 (52-wk range $4.18 - $28.50), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.

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