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Why GPMT Stock surged +3.04% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

$4.40 +3.04% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $4.42

Granite Point Mortgage Trust Inc. (GPMT) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 43/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D- • SELL / AVOID Cap $20.6M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is GPMT stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Granite Point Mortgage Trust Inc. (NYSE: GPMT) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 43/100 at a spot price of $4.40 (+3.04% 1D, market cap $20.6M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 7/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 3/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 12/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, GPMT ranks #882 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does GPMT compare to LFT and MDRR in the Financials sector?
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Within the Financials sector (Real Estate Investment Trusts), GPMT carries a Roarable D- (43/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -7.4%. By comparison, LFT (Lument Finance Trust Inc.) holds a D- grade (37/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -1.3%, cap $20.3M) and MDRR (Medalist Diversified Inc.) posts a C- grade (59/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 6.4%, cap $19.1M). Among the 5-stock peer group, GPMT leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while AHT leads on capital efficiency (85.0% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for GPMT?
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Per GPMT's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001703644), Granite Point Mortgage Trust Inc. generated $737.2M in revenue (-17.0% YoY), -$41.2M in net income, and $2.7M in free cash flow against $1.76B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
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INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $4.42 (+0.36%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 7/20 (D-) • 0.4% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (43/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-6.7% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D-
025507510043
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- · Rk D+
Cash (7)Whales (3)SEC (13)Macro (8)CEO (12)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-6.8% Base Target
$30 Bull$4 Base$3 Bear
📬 FREE GPMT RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for GPMT)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (43/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY GPMT SCORES 43/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (30% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 4/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+12/20 pts (28% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 60% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-16 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
51
Grade C-$5.76-18.1% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
48
Grade D$4.72+4.4% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
46
Grade D$4.93-10.8% Next Q
Current
43
Grade D-$4.40-6.7% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C- (51) → D- (43)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a GPMT Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While GPMT currently carries a cautious 43/100 (D-) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($7.67) and Max Pain ($4.62) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $29.93.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $GPMT• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “GPMT Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →

Why GPMT Stock surged +3.04% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

Granite Point Mortgage Trust Inc. (GPMT) surged +3.04% to $4.40, trading at 2% of its 52-week range ($4.18 – $28.5). Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-7% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.

  • ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 2% of its 52-week range ($4.18 – $28.5) with RSI-14 at 19.5 (OVERSOLD (<32)).
  • ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±12.5% around $4.40 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
  • ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable D- (Sell) backed by 52% gross margin and $2.7M annual free cash flow.
Live GPMT Headlines & Catalysts
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring GPMT)

  • ✓Walkthrough of GPMT's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
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GPMT // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -68.79%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT
2026-11-03O $4.40H $4.40L $4.27C $4.40VOL 66.0K
RES: $14.42SUP: $4.03SMA50: $7.67SMA200: $13.47
$24.81$19.22$13.63$8.04$2.44RES $14.42SUP $4.03$4.402026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

GPMT Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -17.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on GPMT today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for GPMT. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for GPMT today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (GPMT)

Financials Rank #882 of 1097 ⚔️ LFT vs GPMT Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (GPMT vs. LFT, MDRR, NYC, AHT)

Industry: Real Estate Investment Trusts (172 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1097 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Granite Point Mortgage Trust Inc. (GPMT) ranks #882 by composite RQD confidence (43/100, grade D-) and #1053 by equity capitalization ($20.6M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, GPMT leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while AHT leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 85.0% ROIC and — gross margin. MDRR currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 59/100 (C-) compared with GPMT at 43/100 (D-).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
GPMT ACTIVE
Granite Point Mortgage Trust Inc.
D- 43/100 — — -7.4% +3.04% $20.6M Benchmark Subject
LFT
Lument Finance Trust Inc.
D- 37/100 — — -1.3% +1.55% $20.3M /lft-vs-gpmt →
MDRR
Medalist Diversified Inc.
C- 59/100 — — 6.4% 0.00% $19.1M /mdrr-vs-gpmt →
NYC
American Strategic Investment Co. (Class A)
D- 37/100 — — 5.5% -0.08% $18.9M /nyc-vs-gpmt →
AHT
Ashford Hospitality Trust Inc
D- 41/100 — — 85.0% -0.78% $16.6M /aht-vs-gpmt →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001703644 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Granite Point Mortgage Trust Inc. (GPMT) reported GAAP revenue of $737.2M (-17.0% vs. FY2024 revenue of $888.3M , and +159.2% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$41.2M, operating cash flow of $2.7M, and free cash flow of $2.7M (-69.5% YoY). On the balance sheet, GPMT closed FY2025 with $1.76B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $737.2M -$41.2M $2.7M $2.7M $1.76B —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $888.3M -$207.1M $8.8M $8.8M $2.12B —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $284.4M -$63.2M $52.1M $52.1M — —

3. GPMT Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is GPMT stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Granite Point Mortgage Trust Inc. (NYSE: GPMT) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 43/100 at a spot price of $4.40 (+3.04% 1D, market cap $20.6M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 7/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 3/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 12/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, GPMT ranks #882 in composite RQD confidence.

How does GPMT compare to LFT and MDRR in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Real Estate Investment Trusts), GPMT carries a Roarable D- (43/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -7.4%. By comparison, LFT (Lument Finance Trust Inc.) holds a D- grade (37/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -1.3%, cap $20.3M) and MDRR (Medalist Diversified Inc.) posts a C- grade (59/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 6.4%, cap $19.1M). Among the 5-stock peer group, GPMT leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while AHT leads on capital efficiency (85.0% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for GPMT?

Per GPMT's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001703644), Granite Point Mortgage Trust Inc. generated $737.2M in revenue (-17.0% YoY), -$41.2M in net income, and $2.7M in free cash flow against $1.76B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is GPMT trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

GPMT last traded at $4.40 (+3.04% on volume of 11,964 shares), positioning the stock -42.63% below its 50-day simple moving average ($7.67) and -67.33% below its 200-day simple moving average ($13.47). Across its 52-week range of $4.18 to $28.50, GPMT sits at the 0.9% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 19.5 (OVERSOLD (<32)) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($3.85 to $4.95).

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 43/100 (D-) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

GPMT — Granite Point Mortgage Trust Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Granite Point Mortgage Trust Inc. (GPMT) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 43/100, corresponding to a D- letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $4.40 (+3.04% 1D, market capitalization $20.6M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (7/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of -7.4%, gross margin of —, operating margin of —, and free cash flow yield of 12.58%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (3/20) + Insider Conviction (12/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (8/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (13/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 4/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Granite Point Mortgage Trust Inc. (GPMT) is a NYSE-listed operating company in the Real Estate Investment Trusts industry (Financials sector) with an equity market capitalization of $20.6M. The business operates with a gross margin of 0%, an operating margin of 0%, and a return on invested capital (ROIC) of -7.4% (free cash flow yield of 12.58%). Within the Real Estate Investment Trusts peer group, investor evaluation centers on operating leverage, unit margin durability, and capital allocation efficiency across market cycles.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Granite Point Mortgage Trust Inc. (GPMT) reported $737.2M in annual revenue (up from $888.3M in FY2024, -17.0% YoY) and -$41.2M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($284.4M revenue, -$63.2M net income) through FY2025, GPMT scaled operating cash flow to $2.7M and free cash flow to $2.7M, backed by $1.76B in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D- • RQD 43/100): Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of 12.58% and institutional whale pillar of 3/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 7/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 3/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $4.18 – $28.50 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Investors must weigh current valuation against — operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

The only sector context provided is the Financials / Real Estate Investment Trusts classification, with a beta of 1.0.

  • Key Question #1: Can GPMT sustain or expand its — operating margin and -7.4% ROIC against Real Estate Investment Trusts peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $737.2M and free cash flow of $2.7M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is GPMT's equity valuation to Financials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

GPMT Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Granite Point Mortgage Trust Inc. (GPMT) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to GPMT Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

GPMT Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $4.40?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON GPMT 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on GPMT:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
AL AlphaFlow_Cap RQD DEBATE OPENER • Verified $100K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $5.25 (+23.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

A 12.58% FCF yield at a $4.4 share price offers a high cash-flow return if the balance sheet stabilizes.

The street is overcomplicating Granite Point Mortgage Trust Inc. (GPMT). A 12.58% FCF yield at a $4.4 share price offers a high cash-flow return if the balance sheet stabilizes.. With an RQD score of 43/100 (D-) and Forensic Balance Sheet at 13/20, any positive earnings surprise or guidance raise forces underweight funds to chase above $4.61.

ArenaChamp_24 🐂 BULL

@ForensicBear Fair point on current EV/EBITDA multiples, but you're ignoring the forward operating leverage in Real Estate Investment Trusts. If gross margin (0.0%) holds, EPS grows into the multiple faster than bears think.

FO ForensicBear RQD DEBATE OPENER • 10-K Footnote Auditor 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $3.63 (-15.0%)
Spot @ $4.27

A -7.4% ROIC, negative net income in every reported year, and a 4 of 9 Piotroski score signal a vulnerable balance sheet and weak flow.

A -7.4% ROIC, negative net income in every reported year, and a 4 of 9 Piotroski score signal a vulnerable balance sheet and weak flow.. Look at the math on GPMT: paying current EV/EBITDA multiples for -7.4% ROIC and 0.0% operating margins leaves zero margin of safety if Real Estate Investment Trusts demand softens. I'd wait for a retest of $3.76 before getting long.

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