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Stock Ratings / Financials / HCI
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HCI Group Inc. (HCI) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$201.43 +1.80% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $202.57

HCI Group Inc. (HCI) earns a Roarable Rating of B+ (Buy) with 80/100 RQD Confidence. High-quality cash engine (steady margins, 31% return on capital) with steady institutional support. The company’s underlying cash engine and institutional positioning keep the composite score in the Green Buy zone.

ROARABLE B+ • BUY Cap $2.46B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on HCI Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is HCI stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, HCI Group Inc. (NYSE: HCI) is rated B+ (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 80/100 at a spot price of $201.43 (+1.80% 1D, market cap $2.46B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 18/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 15/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 16/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 18/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, HCI ranks #9 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does HCI compare to SKWD and PLGO in the Financials sector?
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Within the Financials sector (Property-Casualty Insurers), HCI carries a Roarable B+ (80/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 7.7x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 30.8%. By comparison, SKWD (Skyward Specialty Insurance Group Inc.) holds a B grade (74/100 RQD, P/E 15.3x, ROIC 16.8%, cap $2.62B) and PLGO (Pelagos Insurance Capital Limited) posts a D grade (47/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $2.28B). Among the 5-stock peer group, SPNT leads on earnings multiple (6.6x) while HCI leads on capital efficiency (30.8% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for HCI?
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Per HCI's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001400810), HCI Group Inc. generated $900.9M in revenue (+20.1% YoY), $320.4M in net income, and $440.8M in free cash flow against $2.53B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $202.56 (+0.56%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.92% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 18/20 (A) • 48.9% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 80/100 (B+) historically ranked in the Top 9% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+8.2% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 71.3% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERBUY • B+
025507510080
2-of-3 Quant Analysts Bullish
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw A- · Rk B
Cash (18)Whales (15)SEC (13)Macro (16)CEO (18)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+9.9% Base Target
$261 Bull$221 Base$165 Bear
📬 FREE HCI RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for HCI)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±5.1%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (80/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY HCI SCORES 80/100 (B+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+18/20 pts (23% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 48.9% FCF Margin ($440.8M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+18/20 pts (23% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 86% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.92% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk13/20 pts (-7 pt drag)

Balance-sheet & 10-K footnote risk deducts 7 pts from forensic ceiling

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
72
Grade B$198.88+2.7% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
75
Grade B+$204.28-2.1% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
77
Grade B+$199.96+0.7% Next Q
Current
80
Grade B+$201.43+8.2% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: B (72) → B+ (80)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the HCI Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 80/100 (B+) score, HCI faces multiple-compression risk if 7.7x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.92% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($189.73) or 200D SMA ($170.87) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($221.37) toward Bear Floor ($165.17).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $HCI• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “HCI Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 80%NO 20%Trade / Inspect Odds →
RSI-14 MOMENTUMBULLISH MOMENTUM
5530 Oversold · 70 Hot
ALTMAN-Z SHIELDFORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)
3.80>3.0 Fortress Safe
PIOTROSKI F-SCORESOLID CORE (5–6)
6 / 99-Pt Accounting
52-WEEK LASER RANGE88% OF RANGE
L: $145$201.43H: $209
1. Money & Cash Health● HEALTHY
Are profits real cash in the bank?

Real cash coming in backs up reported profits (steady margins and healthy balance-sheet cushion).

Factor Grade: ARQD 18 / 20
2. Big Money & Insiders● BUYING
Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Hedge funds and options traders are leaning bullish, showing strong institutional appetite.

Factor Grade: A-RQD 33 / 40
3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● ALL CLEAR
SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

Clean SEC fine-print check with low hidden accounting risk and favorable interest-rate weather.

Factor Grade: BRQD 29 / 40
MULTI-MODEL QUANT PANEL DELIBERATION

2-of-3 Quant Analysts Bullish on HCI

Cash & Moat Bull AI
ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model
BULLISH (90)

30.8% ROIC with 42.0% gross margin and 17.88% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI
10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard
NEUTRAL (65)

Altman-Z 4.20 and Piotroski 6/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI
Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq
BULLISH (82)

33/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 16/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like HCI
  • ✓Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.
  • ✓Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side.
  • ✓Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.
Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong
  • !Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (HCI Tape Review)

  • ✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
  • ✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
  • ✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?
Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena
HCI // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +34.96%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-03O $198.2H $201.4L $197.9C $201.4VOL 116.8K
RES: $212.3SUP: $173.7SMA50: $189.7SMA200: $170.9
$213.1$194.6$176.1$157.5$139.0RES $212.3SUP $173.7$201.42026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

HCI Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 HCI Butterfly Map → + Track HCI →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
-6.2%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +20.1% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on HCI today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for HCI. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for HCI today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (HCI)

Financials Rank #9 of 1097 ⚔️ SKWD vs HCI Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (HCI vs. SKWD, PLGO, HG, SPNT)

Industry: Property-Casualty Insurers (68 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1097 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, HCI Group Inc. (HCI) ranks #9 by composite RQD confidence (80/100, grade B+) and #401 by equity capitalization ($2.46B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, SPNT leads on earnings valuation at 6.6x trailing P/E, while HCI leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 30.8% ROIC and — gross margin. HCI currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 80/100 (B+).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
HCI ACTIVE
HCI Group Inc.
B+ 80/100 7.7x — 30.8% +1.80% $2.46B Benchmark Subject
SKWD
Skyward Specialty Insurance Group Inc.
B 74/100 15.3x — 16.8% +3.54% $2.62B /skwd-vs-hci →
PLGO
Pelagos Insurance Capital Limited
D 47/100 — — — +0.65% $2.28B /plgo-vs-hci →
HG
Hamilton Insurance Group Ltd. (Class B)
D+ 55/100 — — — +3.48% $2.92B /hg-vs-hci →
SPNT
SiriusPoint Ltd.
C 63/100 6.6x — 18.6% +0.50% $3.01B /spnt-vs-hci →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001400810 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), HCI Group Inc. (HCI) reported GAAP revenue of $900.9M (+20.1% vs. FY2024 revenue of $750.1M , and +63.6% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $320.4M, operating cash flow of $444.4M, and free cash flow of $440.8M (+34.5% YoY). On the balance sheet, HCI closed FY2025 with $2.53B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $900.9M $320.4M $444.4M $440.8M $2.53B —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $750.1M $127.6M $331.8M $327.8M $2.23B —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $550.7M $89.3M $230.7M $230.7M — —

3. HCI Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is HCI stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, HCI Group Inc. (NYSE: HCI) is rated B+ (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 80/100 at a spot price of $201.43 (+1.80% 1D, market cap $2.46B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 18/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 15/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 16/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 18/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, HCI ranks #9 in composite RQD confidence.

How does HCI compare to SKWD and PLGO in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Property-Casualty Insurers), HCI carries a Roarable B+ (80/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 7.7x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 30.8%. By comparison, SKWD (Skyward Specialty Insurance Group Inc.) holds a B grade (74/100 RQD, P/E 15.3x, ROIC 16.8%, cap $2.62B) and PLGO (Pelagos Insurance Capital Limited) posts a D grade (47/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $2.28B). Among the 5-stock peer group, SPNT leads on earnings multiple (6.6x) while HCI leads on capital efficiency (30.8% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for HCI?

Per HCI's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001400810), HCI Group Inc. generated $900.9M in revenue (+20.1% YoY), $320.4M in net income, and $440.8M in free cash flow against $2.53B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is HCI trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

HCI last traded at $201.43 (+1.80% on volume of 216,591 shares), positioning the stock +6.17% above its 50-day simple moving average ($189.73) and +17.88% above its 200-day simple moving average ($170.87). Across its 52-week range of $144.75 to $208.80, HCI sits at the 88.5% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 55.0 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±5.1% ($191.16 to $211.70).

Direct Sub-Reports: HCI RQD Cockpit HCI 12M Forecast HCI Earnings & Move HCI Dividends & DRIP HCI Insiders & 13F HCI Whale Options HCI Profit Sankey HCI News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 80/100 (B+) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

HCI — HCI Group Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

HCI Group Inc. (HCI) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 80/100, corresponding to a B+ letter grade (Roarable Buy) at a spot price of $201.43 (+1.80% 1D, market capitalization $2.46B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (18/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 30.8%, gross margin of —, operating margin of —, and free cash flow yield of 17.88%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (15/20) + Insider Conviction (18/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (16/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (13/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 6/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

HCI Group Inc. Is a NYSE-listed issuer in the Financials sector, within the Property-Casualty Insurers industry. The profile identifies the company as operating with a market capitalization of $2.5B.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), HCI Group Inc. (HCI) reported $900.9M in annual revenue (up from $750.1M in FY2024, +20.1% YoY) and $320.4M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($550.7M revenue, $89.3M net income) through FY2025, HCI scaled operating cash flow to $444.4M and free cash flow to $440.8M, backed by $2.53B in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (B+ • RQD 80/100): Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 18/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 15/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $144.75 – $208.80 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Investors must weigh 7.7x trailing P/E against — operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

The source data therefore provides no upstream or downstream dependency map, no sector correlation data beyond the Financials / Property-Casualty Insurers classification, and no identified 2nd-order bottlenecks. Investors should note that this gap is a limitation of the dataset, not evidence that such dependencies are absent.

  • Key Question #1: Can HCI sustain or expand its — operating margin and 30.8% ROIC against Property-Casualty Insurers peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $900.9M and free cash flow of $440.8M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is HCI's 6.5x forward P/E multiple to Financials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

HCI Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for HCI Group Inc. (HCI) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to HCI Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

HCI Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $201.43?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON HCI 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on HCI:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
BR BreakoutHunter RQD DEBATE OPENER • Swing & Catalyst Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $249.32 (+26.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Per the RQD rating, ROIC of 30.8% and an FCF yield of 17.88% at a 7.7 trailing P/E point to strong cash generation at a low multiple.

Long HCI at $197.87 targeting $249.32. Per the RQD rating, ROIC of 30.8% and an FCF yield of 17.88% at a 7.7 trailing P/E point to strong cash generation at a low multiple.. Institutional whale score is 15/20 and the risk/reward vs. the $144.75 52-week low is skewed heavily in favor of bulls.

CapAlloc_Nerd 🐂 BULL

@BreakoutHunter Agree on the RQD 80/100 quality, though with 1.0 beta I'm scaling in with half-size at $197.87 and keeping dry powder in case we test $184.02.

MU MultipleCompression RQD DEBATE OPENER • Valuation Discipline 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $148.40 (-25.0%)
Spot @ $197.87

The price of $198.23 sits near the top of the $144.75 to $208.8 52-week range, after a 253% run, and the balance sheet is the lowest-sc

I respect the product at HCI Group Inc., but the stock at $197.87 is a different story. The price of $198.23 sits near the top of the $144.75 to $208.8 52-week range, after a 253% run, and the balance sheet is the lowest-scoring RQD pillar at 13 / 20.. FCF yield is 17.88% and RQD sits at 80/100 (B+) — why pay up here when you can wait for next quarter's numbers?

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