Hess Midstream faces Bakken-driven risks as EBITDA may drop 25% by 2027 despite dividend growth. Discover why the risk of loss remains high with HESM.
Why HESM Stock slipped -0.82% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
Hess Midstream LP Class A Representing Limited Partner Interests (HESM) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 56/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief)
Is HESM stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Hess Midstream LP Class A Representing Limited Partner Interests (NYSE: HESM) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 56/100 at a spot price of $32.44 (-0.82% 1D, market cap $4.16B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 7/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 18/20. Across 211 tracked Energy issuers, HESM ranks #112 in composite RQD confidence.
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief)
How does HESM compare to CRK and CRGY in the Energy sector?
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Within the Energy sector (Oil & Gas Production), HESM carries a Roarable D+ (56/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 11.7x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 19.1%. By comparison, CRK (Comstock Resources Inc.) holds a D grade (46/100 RQD, P/E 10.8x, ROIC 9.4%, cap $4.13B) and CRGY (Crescent Energy Company) posts a C grade (63/100 RQD, P/E 34.2x, ROIC 1.7%, cap $4.45B). Among the 5-stock peer group, CRK leads on earnings multiple (10.8x) while HESM leads on capital efficiency (19.1% ROIC).
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief)
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for HESM?
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Per HESM's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001789832), Hess Midstream LP Class A Representing Limited Partner Interests generated $1.62B in revenue (+8.4% YoY), $352.9M in net income, and $728.2M in free cash flow against $4.39B in total assets and $3.74B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 86% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.92% YoY Shares)
SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 44.9% FCF Margin ($728.2M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin
Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-13 pts vs max)
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the HESM Bull Thesis Could Fail
Even with a 56/100 (D+) score, HESM faces multiple-compression risk if 11.7x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.
Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.
Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.
Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($35.96) or 200D SMA ($37.93) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($32.15) toward Bear Floor ($25.08).
Why HESM Stock slipped -0.82% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
Hess Midstream LP Class A Representing Limited Partner Interests (HESM) slipped -0.82% to $32.44, trading at 24% of its 52-week range ($29.52 – $41.44). Stretched risk/reward at 12x P/E (19% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 24% of its 52-week range ($29.52 – $41.44) with RSI-14 at 44.5 (NEUTRAL RANGE).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±5.7% around $32.44 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable D+ (Sell) backed by 52% gross margin and $728.2M annual free cash flow.
Dividend stocks may outperform after the US midterms as rates fall and AI hype fades. Read the full analysis here.
Get a weekly dividend summary for Champions, Contenders, and Challengers.
The headline numbers for Hess Midstream Partners (HESM) give insight into how the company performed in the quarter ended September 2026, but it may be worthwhile to compare some of its key metrics to Wall Street estimate
HESM Q3 2026: EPS beat, revenue in line, lower capex lifted free cash flow, and distribution rose; shares gained premarket.
HOUSTON, October 30, 2026--Hess Midstream LP (NYSE: HESM) ("Hess Midstream" or the "Company") today reported third quarter 2026 net income of $179.1 million compared with net income of $175.5 million for the third quarte
Hess Midstream (NYSE:HESM) reported quarterly earnings of $0.77 per share which beat the analyst consensus estimate of $0.70 by 10 percent. This is a 2.67 percent increase over earnings of $0.75 per share from the same
SCHD is one of the best dividend growth ETFs available, but its modest 3% yield and several important diversification gaps make it insufficient for many income-focused retirees.
Higher rates have made many income picks look cheap, but for some, they just speed up problems that were already there. Read why I avoid HESM and TYG for now.
For questions about this article or underlying research, email help@trefis.com.
Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring HESM)
- ✓Walkthrough of HESM's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
- ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
- ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
HESM Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
vs. +8.4% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on HESM today. View full Setup Ledger →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for HESM. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (HESM)
1. Head-to-Head Energy Peer Comparison (HESM vs. CRK, CRGY, HP, PTEN)
Industry: Oil & Gas Production (106 Tracked Issuers)Across 211 tracked Energy securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Hess Midstream LP Class A Representing Limited Partner Interests (HESM) ranks #112 by composite RQD confidence (56/100, grade D+) and #92 by equity capitalization ($4.16B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, CRK leads on earnings valuation at 10.8x trailing P/E, while HESM leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 19.1% ROIC and — gross margin. CRGY currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 63/100 (C) compared with HESM at 56/100 (D+).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HESM
ACTIVE
Hess Midstream LP Class A Representing Limited Partner Interests | D+ | 56/100 | 11.7x | — | 19.1% | -0.82% | $4.16B | Benchmark Subject |
| CRK Comstock Resources Inc. | D | 46/100 | 10.8x | — | 9.4% | -4.48% | $4.13B | /crk-vs-hesm → |
| CRGY Crescent Energy Company | C | 63/100 | 34.2x | — | 1.7% | -5.14% | $4.45B | /crgy-vs-hesm → |
| HP Helmerich & Payne Inc. | C | 62/100 | — | — | 0.1% | -9.65% | $3.88B | /hp-vs-hesm → |
| PTEN Patterson-UTI Energy Inc. | C | 63/100 | — | — | -0.8% | -11.41% | $4.50B | /pten-vs-hesm → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001789832 ↗In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Hess Midstream LP Class A Representing Limited Partner Interests (HESM) reported GAAP revenue of $1.62B (+8.4% vs. FY2024 revenue of $1.50B , and +20.2% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $352.9M, operating cash flow of $983.8M, and free cash flow of $728.2M (+14.8% YoY). On the balance sheet, HESM closed FY2025 with $4.39B in total assets against $3.74B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 1.80, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $1.62B | $352.9M | $983.8M | $728.2M | $4.39B | $3.74B |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-31 | $1.50B | $223.1M | $940.3M | $634.2M | $4.15B | $3.45B |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-12-31 | $1.35B | $118.6M | $866.4M | $805.7M | $2.28B | $532.7M |
3. HESM Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs HESM stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-03, Hess Midstream LP Class A Representing Limited Partner Interests (NYSE: HESM) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 56/100 at a spot price of $32.44 (-0.82% 1D, market cap $4.16B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 7/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 18/20. Across 211 tracked Energy issuers, HESM ranks #112 in composite RQD confidence.
How does HESM compare to CRK and CRGY in the Energy sector?
Within the Energy sector (Oil & Gas Production), HESM carries a Roarable D+ (56/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 11.7x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 19.1%. By comparison, CRK (Comstock Resources Inc.) holds a D grade (46/100 RQD, P/E 10.8x, ROIC 9.4%, cap $4.13B) and CRGY (Crescent Energy Company) posts a C grade (63/100 RQD, P/E 34.2x, ROIC 1.7%, cap $4.45B). Among the 5-stock peer group, CRK leads on earnings multiple (10.8x) while HESM leads on capital efficiency (19.1% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for HESM?
Per HESM's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001789832), Hess Midstream LP Class A Representing Limited Partner Interests generated $1.62B in revenue (+8.4% YoY), $352.9M in net income, and $728.2M in free cash flow against $4.39B in total assets and $3.74B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is HESM trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
HESM last traded at $32.44 (-0.82% on volume of 2,725,850 shares), positioning the stock -9.79% below its 50-day simple moving average ($35.96) and -14.47% below its 200-day simple moving average ($37.93). Across its 52-week range of $29.52 to $41.44, HESM sits at the 24.5% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 44.5 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±5.7% ($30.59 to $34.29).
HESM — Hess Midstream LP Class A Representing Limited Partner Interests: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor
1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor
Hess Midstream LP Class A Representing Limited Partner Interests (HESM) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 56/100, corresponding to a D+ letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $32.44 (-0.82% 1D, market capitalization $4.16B).
- Fundamental Cash Engine (13/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 19.1%, gross margin of —, operating margin of 62.2%, and free cash flow yield of 17.59%.
- Whale 13F & Options Flow (7/20) + Insider Conviction (18/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
- Macro Regime Fit (8/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (10/20): Incorporates a 1.03x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 1.80, Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, and Debt/Equity of 8.50x.
2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory
Hess Midstream LP Class A Representing Limited Partner Interests (HESM) is a NYSE-listed issuer in the Energy sector, classified under Oil & Gas Production per the company profile. Per the financials section, the company reported FY 2025 revenue of $1.62B and operating income of $1.01B, which indicates a revenue base and a high operating margin of 62.2%.
In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Hess Midstream LP Class A Representing Limited Partner Interests (HESM) reported $1.62B in annual revenue (up from $1.50B in FY2024, +8.4% YoY) and $352.9M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($1.35B revenue, $118.6M net income) through FY2025, HESM scaled operating cash flow to $983.8M and free cash flow to $728.2M, backed by $4.39B in total assets against $3.74B in total debt.
3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff
- 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D+ • RQD 56/100): Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Free cash flow yield of 17.59% and institutional whale pillar of 7/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 13/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 7/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $29.52 – $41.44 52-week range.
- 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Investors must weigh 11.7x trailing P/E and 6.4x EV/EBITDA against 62.2% operating margins and a 1.03x macro beta.
4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch
Operating in Oil & Gas Production (Energy), HESM carries a macro regime beta of 1.03 and gross margin of —.
- Key Question #1: Can HESM sustain or expand its 62.2% operating margin and 19.1% ROIC against Oil & Gas Production peers over the next 4 quarters?
- Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $1.62B and free cash flow of $728.2M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $3.74B in total debt?
- Key Question #3: How sensitive is HESM's 10.9x forward P/E multiple to Energy capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.03x)?
HESM Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire
Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Hess Midstream LP Class A Representing Limited Partner Interests (HESM) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below
Hess Midstream faces Bakken-driven risks as EBITDA may drop 25% by 2027 despite dividend growth. Discover why the risk of loss remains high with HESM.
Dividend stocks may outperform after the US midterms as rates fall and AI hype fades. Read the full analysis here.
Get a weekly dividend summary for Champions, Contenders, and Challengers.
The headline numbers for Hess Midstream Partners (HESM) give insight into how the company performed in the quarter ended September 2026, but it may be worthwhile to compare some of its key metrics to Wall Street estimate
HESM Q3 2026: EPS beat, revenue in line, lower capex lifted free cash flow, and distribution rose; shares gained premarket.
HOUSTON, October 30, 2026--Hess Midstream LP (NYSE: HESM) ("Hess Midstream" or the "Company") today reported third quarter 2026 net income of $179.1 million compared with net income of $175.5 million for the third quarte
Hess Midstream (NYSE:HESM) reported quarterly earnings of $0.77 per share which beat the analyst consensus estimate of $0.70 by 10 percent. This is a 2.67 percent increase over earnings of $0.75 per share from the same
SCHD is one of the best dividend growth ETFs available, but its modest 3% yield and several important diversification gaps make it insufficient for many income-focused retirees.
HESM Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $32.44?
The rating cites ROIC of 19.1% and an FCF yield of 17.59%, the strongest cash-generation signals in the dataset.
Long HESM at $32.71 targeting $41.21. The rating cites ROIC of 19.1% and an FCF yield of 17.59%, the strongest cash-generation signals in the dataset.. Institutional whale score is 7/20 and the risk/reward vs. the $29.52 52-week low is skewed heavily in favor of bulls.
@RiskArb_Desk Fair point on 11.7x trailing P/E, but you're ignoring the forward operating leverage in Oil & Gas Production. If gross margin (0.0%) holds, EPS grows into the multiple faster than bears think.
The rating cites Debt/Equity of 8.5 and reported debt rising to $3.74B against cash of $1.9M.
I respect the product at Hess Midstream LP Class A Representing Limited Partner Interests, but the stock at $32.71 is a different story. The rating cites Debt/Equity of 8.5 and reported debt rising to $3.74B against cash of $1.9M.. FCF yield is 17.59% and RQD sits at 56/100 (D+) — why pay up here when you can wait for next quarter's numbers?