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Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / HGV / forecast
OSW (69) PK (46) SHO (66) PENN (48) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. (HGV) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$41.00 +6.66% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $41.41

Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. (HGV) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 51/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $2.91B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is HGV stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. (NYSE: HGV) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 51/100 at a spot price of $41.00 (+6.66% 1D, market cap $2.91B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 10/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 9/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 5/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 14/20. Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, HGV ranks #525 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does HGV compare to OSW and PK in the Consumer Discretionary sector?
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Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Hotels/Resorts), HGV carries a Roarable D (51/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 34.3x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 6.3%. By comparison, OSW (OneSpaWorld Holdings Limited) holds a C+ grade (69/100 RQD, P/E 42.7x, ROIC 10.6%, cap $3.03B) and PK (Park Hotels & Resorts Inc.) posts a D grade (46/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -0.9%, cap $3.34B). Among the 5-stock peer group, HGV leads on earnings multiple (34.3x) while OSW leads on capital efficiency (10.6% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for HGV?
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Per HGV's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001674168), Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. generated $4.51B in revenue (+1.1% YoY), $81.0M in net income, and $230.0M in free cash flow against $11.54B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $41.41 (+1.01%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.80% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 10/20 (D) • 5.1% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 51/100 (D) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-1.3% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 49.7% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D
025507510051
2-of-3 Quant Analysts Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw D+ · Rk D
Cash (10)Whales (9)SEC (13)Macro (5)CEO (14)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-3.1% Base Target
$58 Bull$40 Base$31 Bear
📬 FREE HGV RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for HGV)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±7.9%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (51/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY HGV SCORES 51/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+14/20 pts (27% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 70% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-1.80% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (25% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 5/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit5/20 pts (-15 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (58.2) create a -15 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
43
Grade D$35.18+2.9% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
46
Grade D$36.19-1.3% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
48
Grade D$35.73+14.7% Next Q
Current
51
Grade D$41.00-1.3% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: D (43) → D (51)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a HGV Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While HGV currently carries a cautious 51/100 (D) rating due to Macro Regime Fit (5/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($37.42) and Max Pain ($43.05) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $58.17.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Cannibal Buyback (-1.80% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $HGV• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “HGV Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 51%NO 49%Trade / Inspect Odds →
INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your HGV Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $41.00: 243.9 sh
$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000
12M Bear Case FloorTarget $30.97
$7,554
$-2,446 (-24.5%)
12M Consensus BaseTarget $39.71
$9,685
$-315 (-3.1%)
12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $58.17
$14,188
+$4,188 (+41.9%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (32 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100
● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 6
Wall Street FirmStance12M Target1Y AccuracyTrack Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity DeskHOLD$4174%A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage LeadUNDERPERFORM$5569%B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap ResearchSELL$3558%C
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring HGV)

  • ✓Walkthrough of HGV's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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HGV // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -9.59%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-03O $35.71H $41.00L $35.71C $41.00VOL 1.88M
RES: $52.60SUP: $31.81SMA50: $37.42SMA200: $44.49
$56.90$50.69$44.48$38.27$32.06RES $52.60SUP $31.81$41.002026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

HGV Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 HGV Butterfly Map → + Track HGV →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
26.5%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +1.1% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on HGV today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for HGV. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for HGV today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (HGV)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #525 of 1009 ⚔️ OSW vs HGV Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (HGV vs. OSW, PK, SHO, PENN)

Industry: Hotels/Resorts (35 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. (HGV) ranks #525 by composite RQD confidence (51/100, grade D) and #362 by equity capitalization ($2.91B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, HGV leads on earnings valuation at 34.3x trailing P/E, while OSW leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 10.6% ROIC and — gross margin. OSW currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 69/100 (C+) compared with HGV at 51/100 (D).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
HGV ACTIVE
Hilton Grand Vacations Inc.
D 51/100 34.3x — 6.3% +6.66% $2.91B Benchmark Subject
OSW
OneSpaWorld Holdings Limited
C+ 69/100 42.7x — 10.6% -0.66% $3.03B /osw-vs-hgv →
PK
Park Hotels & Resorts Inc.
D 46/100 — — -0.9% +1.45% $3.34B /pk-vs-hgv →
SHO
Sunstone Hotel Investors Inc. Sunstone Hotel Investors Inc.
C+ 66/100 — — — +0.55% $2.38B /sho-vs-hgv →
PENN
PENN Entertainment Inc.
D 48/100 — — -13.3% +7.11% $2.13B /penn-vs-hgv →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001674168 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. (HGV) reported GAAP revenue of $4.51B (+1.1% vs. FY2024 revenue of $4.46B , and +25.6% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $81.0M, operating cash flow of $300.0M, and free cash flow of $230.0M (-13.9% YoY). On the balance sheet, HGV closed FY2025 with $11.54B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $4.51B $81.0M $300.0M $230.0M $11.54B —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $4.46B $47.0M $309.0M $267.0M $11.44B —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $3.59B $313.0M $312.0M $312.0M — —

3. HGV Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is HGV stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. (NYSE: HGV) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 51/100 at a spot price of $41.00 (+6.66% 1D, market cap $2.91B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 10/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 9/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 5/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 14/20. Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, HGV ranks #525 in composite RQD confidence.

How does HGV compare to OSW and PK in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Hotels/Resorts), HGV carries a Roarable D (51/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 34.3x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 6.3%. By comparison, OSW (OneSpaWorld Holdings Limited) holds a C+ grade (69/100 RQD, P/E 42.7x, ROIC 10.6%, cap $3.03B) and PK (Park Hotels & Resorts Inc.) posts a D grade (46/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -0.9%, cap $3.34B). Among the 5-stock peer group, HGV leads on earnings multiple (34.3x) while OSW leads on capital efficiency (10.6% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for HGV?

Per HGV's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001674168), Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. generated $4.51B in revenue (+1.1% YoY), $81.0M in net income, and $230.0M in free cash flow against $11.54B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is HGV trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

HGV last traded at $41.00 (+6.66% on volume of 3,001,807 shares), positioning the stock +9.57% above its 50-day simple moving average ($37.42) and -7.84% below its 200-day simple moving average ($44.49). Across its 52-week range of $33.99 to $55.40, HGV sits at the 32.7% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 58.2 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±7.9% ($37.76 to $44.24).

Direct Sub-Reports: HGV RQD Cockpit HGV 12M Forecast HGV Earnings & Move HGV Dividends & DRIP HGV Insiders & 13F HGV Whale Options HGV Profit Sankey HGV News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 51/100 (D) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

HGV — Hilton Grand Vacations Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. (HGV) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 51/100, corresponding to a D letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $41.00 (+6.66% 1D, market capitalization $2.91B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (10/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 6.3%, gross margin of —, operating margin of —, and free cash flow yield of 8.29%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (9/20) + Insider Conviction (14/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (5/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (13/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 5/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. (HGV) is a NYSE-listed company in the Consumer Discretionary sector and the Hotels/Resorts industry, .78B market capitalization and reported revenue of $4.51B for FY 2025, .

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. (HGV) reported $4.51B in annual revenue (up from $4.46B in FY2024, +1.1% YoY) and $81.0M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($3.59B revenue, $313.0M net income) through FY2025, HGV scaled operating cash flow to $300.0M and free cash flow to $230.0M, backed by $11.54B in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D • RQD 51/100): Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Free cash flow yield of 8.29% and institutional whale pillar of 9/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 10/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 9/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $33.99 – $55.40 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Investors must weigh 34.3x trailing P/E against — operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

The source data therefore does not map upstream suppliers, downstream customers, or cross-sector correlations for HGV. Sector and industry placement (Consumer Discretionary, Hotels/Resorts) is the only contextual classification available. Investors should watch the sales-reset narrative noted in the news wire, since a change in sales trends would be a first-order signal that the source data cannot otherwise quantify.

  • Key Question #1: Can HGV sustain or expand its — operating margin and 6.3% ROIC against Hotels/Resorts peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $4.51B and free cash flow of $230.0M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is HGV's 31.9x forward P/E multiple to Consumer Discretionary capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

HGV Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. (HGV) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to HGV Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

HGV Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $41.00?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON HGV 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on HGV:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
DE DeltaGamma_99 RQD DEBATE OPENER • Options Flow Specialist 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $45.36 (+18.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Insider-conviction and cash-flow signals (FCF yield 8.29%, insider pillar 14/20) sit alongside a positive rating-upgrade catalyst.

Here is why I am bullish on HGV here at $38.44: Insider-conviction and cash-flow signals (FCF yield 8.29%, insider pillar 14/20) sit alongside a positive rating-upgrade catalyst.. Compare HGV's 0.0% operating margin and 6.3% ROIC against the rest of Hotels/Resorts. As long as cash conversion holds up, dips toward $36.52 are getting bought.

RetailWhale_TX 🐂 BULL

Both sides have a point here — HGV's 13/20 balance sheet score keeps downside contained, so the real swing factor next earnings call is backlog and FCF conversion.

BE BearTrap_Alert RQD DEBATE OPENER • Cycle Peak Watcher 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $32.67 (-15.0%)
Spot @ $38.44

A 34.3 P/E on a 1.8% net margin and 6.3% ROIC, with a 5/20 macro-fit score and a goldman price-target cut, leaves the stock priced for

Sitting on the sidelines or leaning short HGV above $38.44. A 34.3 P/E on a 1.8% net margin and 6.3% ROIC, with a 5/20 macro-fit score and a goldman price-target cut, leaves the stock priced for more than current earnings show.. Until Fundamental Cash Engine (10/20) and FCF yield (8.29%) inflect higher, upside is capped near $55.40.

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