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Horace Mann Educators Corporation (HMN) Revenue-to-Profit Sankey Flow & SEC XBRL Financials

$47.78 +2.27% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $47.88

Horace Mann Educators Corporation (HMN) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 57/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID Cap $1.94B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is HMN stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Horace Mann Educators Corporation (NYSE: HMN) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 57/100 at a spot price of $47.78 (+2.27% 1D, market cap $1.94B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 15/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 13/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, HMN ranks #480 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does HMN compare to KMPR and PLGO in the Financials sector?
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Within the Financials sector (Property-Casualty Insurers), HMN carries a Roarable D+ (57/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 11.6x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 10.9%. By comparison, KMPR (Kemper Corporation) holds a C- grade (59/100 RQD, P/E 13.4x, ROIC 5.3%, cap $2.07B) and PLGO (Pelagos Insurance Capital Limited) posts a D grade (47/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $2.29B). Among the 5-stock peer group, HCI leads on earnings multiple (7.7x) while HCI leads on capital efficiency (30.8% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for HMN?
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Per HMN's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000850141), Horace Mann Educators Corporation generated $1.70B in revenue (+6.7% YoY), $162.1M in net income, and $553.2M in free cash flow against $15.27B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $47.89 (+0.22%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.52% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 15/20 (B) • 32.5% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 57/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.2% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 52.2% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+
025507510057
Quant Analyst Panel Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw C- · Rk D+
Cash (15)Whales (8)SEC (13)Macro (8)CEO (13)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-0.5% Base Target
$58 Bull$48 Base$37 Bear
📬 FREE HMN RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for HMN)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±3.8%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (57/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY HMN SCORES 57/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+15/20 pts (26% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 32.5% FCF Margin ($553.2M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (23% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 6/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit8/20 pts (-12 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (59.8) create a -12 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
49
Grade D$45.75+1.3% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
52
Grade C-$46.35-1.2% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
54
Grade C-$45.80+4.3% Next Q
Current
57
Grade D+$47.78-0.2% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: D (49) → D+ (57)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the HMN Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 57/100 (D+) score, HMN faces multiple-compression risk if 11.6x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-1.52% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($47.50) or 200D SMA ($46.96) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($47.56) toward Bear Floor ($37.10).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $HMN• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “HMN Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 57%NO 43%Trade / Inspect Odds →
VISUAL REVENUE-TO-PROFIT SANKEY WATERFALL • FY 2025 (10-K)

How HMN Turns Every Dollar of Sales Into Real Bottom-Line Profit

Free Cash Flow:$553.2M (32.5% FCF Margin)
Revenue$1.70BGross Profit $884.7M (52%)Cost of Sales $816.7MOp Profit $0 (0%)OpEx (R&D/SG&A) $884.7MNet Profit$162.1M (9.5%)Tax/Other $0

Multi-Year SEC EDGAR XBRL Revenue, Net Profit & Free Cash Flow Trajectory

■ Revenue■ Net Profit■ Free Cash Flow
FY23
Rev $1.49B
FY24
Rev $1.60B
FY25
Rev $1.70B
Fiscal YearRevenueGross MarginOp MarginNet ProfitFree Cash FlowROIC %
FY 2025$1.70B52%0%$162.1M$553.2M10.9%
FY 2024$1.60B52%0%$102.8M$452.1M10.9%
FY 2023$1.49B52%0%$45.0M$302.1M10.9%
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring HMN)

  • ✓Walkthrough of HMN's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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HMN // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +3.94%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-04O $46.72H $47.78L $46.72C $47.78VOL 297.0K
RES: $49.69SUP: $41.31SMA50: $47.50SMA200: $46.96
$56.39$52.94$49.49$46.03$42.58RES $49.69SUP $41.31$47.782026-05-052026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-04
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

HMN Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 HMN Butterfly Map → + Track HMN →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
1.8%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.7% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on HMN today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for HMN. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for HMN today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (HMN)

Financials Rank #480 of 1097 ⚔️ KMPR vs HMN Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (HMN vs. KMPR, PLGO, SAFT, HCI)

Industry: Property-Casualty Insurers (68 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1097 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Horace Mann Educators Corporation (HMN) ranks #480 by composite RQD confidence (57/100, grade D+) and #429 by equity capitalization ($1.94B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, HCI leads on earnings valuation at 7.7x trailing P/E, while HCI leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 30.8% ROIC and — gross margin. HCI currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 80/100 (B+) compared with HMN at 57/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
HMN ACTIVE
Horace Mann Educators Corporation
D+ 57/100 11.6x — 10.9% +2.27% $1.94B Benchmark Subject
KMPR
Kemper Corporation
C- 59/100 13.4x — 5.3% +5.60% $2.07B /kmpr-vs-hmn →
PLGO
Pelagos Insurance Capital Limited
D 47/100 — — — +0.65% $2.29B /plgo-vs-hmn →
SAFT
Safety Insurance Group Inc.
B 74/100 15.4x — 11.1% +0.33% $1.53B /saft-vs-hmn →
HCI
HCI Group Inc.
B+ 80/100 7.7x — 30.8% +1.80% $2.51B /hci-vs-hmn →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000850141 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Horace Mann Educators Corporation (HMN) reported GAAP revenue of $1.70B (+6.7% vs. FY2024 revenue of $1.60B , and +14.0% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $162.1M, operating cash flow of $553.2M, and free cash flow of $553.2M (+22.4% YoY). On the balance sheet, HMN closed FY2025 with $15.27B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $1.70B $162.1M $553.2M $553.2M $15.27B —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $1.60B $102.8M $452.1M $452.1M $14.49B —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $1.49B $45.0M $302.1M $302.1M — —

3. HMN Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is HMN stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Horace Mann Educators Corporation (NYSE: HMN) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 57/100 at a spot price of $47.78 (+2.27% 1D, market cap $1.94B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 15/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 13/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, HMN ranks #480 in composite RQD confidence.

How does HMN compare to KMPR and PLGO in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Property-Casualty Insurers), HMN carries a Roarable D+ (57/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 11.6x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 10.9%. By comparison, KMPR (Kemper Corporation) holds a C- grade (59/100 RQD, P/E 13.4x, ROIC 5.3%, cap $2.07B) and PLGO (Pelagos Insurance Capital Limited) posts a D grade (47/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $2.29B). Among the 5-stock peer group, HCI leads on earnings multiple (7.7x) while HCI leads on capital efficiency (30.8% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for HMN?

Per HMN's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000850141), Horace Mann Educators Corporation generated $1.70B in revenue (+6.7% YoY), $162.1M in net income, and $553.2M in free cash flow against $15.27B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is HMN trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

HMN last traded at $47.78 (+2.27% on volume of 296,990 shares), positioning the stock +0.59% above its 50-day simple moving average ($47.50) and +1.75% above its 200-day simple moving average ($46.96). Across its 52-week range of $41.29 to $55.56, HMN sits at the 45.5% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 59.8 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±3.8% ($45.96 to $49.60).

Direct Sub-Reports: HMN RQD Cockpit HMN 12M Forecast HMN Earnings & Move HMN Dividends & DRIP HMN Insiders & 13F HMN Whale Options HMN Profit Sankey HMN News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 57/100 (D+) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

HMN — Horace Mann Educators Corporation: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Horace Mann Educators Corporation (HMN) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 57/100, corresponding to a D+ letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $47.78 (+2.27% 1D, market capitalization $1.94B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (15/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 10.9%, gross margin of —, operating margin of —, and free cash flow yield of —.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (8/20) + Insider Conviction (13/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (8/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (13/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 6/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Horace Mann Educators Corporation (HMN) is a NYSE-listed issuer in the Financials sector, operating within the Property-Casualty Insurers industry..9B.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Horace Mann Educators Corporation (HMN) reported $1.70B in annual revenue (up from $1.60B in FY2024, +6.7% YoY) and $162.1M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($1.49B revenue, $45.0M net income) through FY2025, HMN scaled operating cash flow to $553.2M and free cash flow to $553.2M, backed by $15.27B in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D+ • RQD 57/100): Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Free cash flow yield of — and institutional whale pillar of 8/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 15/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 8/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $41.29 – $55.56 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Investors must weigh 11.6x trailing P/E against — operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

The source data therefore does not identify upstream or downstream dependencies. Sector-level sensitivity is noted only through the macro regime pillar in the Roarable rating, which cites Beta of 1.0 and sector sensitivity without quantifying the relationship.

  • Key Question #1: Can HMN sustain or expand its — operating margin and 10.9% ROIC against Property-Casualty Insurers peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $1.70B and free cash flow of $553.2M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is HMN's 10.8x forward P/E multiple to Financials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

HMN Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Horace Mann Educators Corporation (HMN) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to HMN Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

HMN Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $47.78?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON HMN 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on HMN:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
CA CashFlowKing RQD DEBATE OPENER • FCF Compounder Hunter 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $58.87 (+26.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Net income grew from $45.0M in FY 2023 to $162.1M in FY 2025 while the balance sheet pillar scored 13 out of 20 with Piotroski F at 6/9

Long HMN at $46.72 targeting $58.87. Net income grew from $45.0M in FY 2023 to $162.1M in FY 2025 while the balance sheet pillar scored 13 out of 20 with Piotroski F at 6/9.. Institutional whale score is 8/20 and the risk/reward vs. the $41.29 52-week low is skewed heavily in favor of bulls.

ArenaChamp_24 🐂 BULL

@CashFlowKing Agree on the RQD 57/100 quality, though with 1.0 beta I'm scaling in with half-size at $46.72 and keeping dry powder in case we test $43.45.

SK SkepticalCFA RQD DEBATE OPENER • Fundamental Contrarian 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $39.24 (-16.0%)
Spot @ $46.72

The RQD verdict is a Roarable Sell with a 0% FCF yield and institutional flow pillar scoring only 7 out of 20.

I respect the product at Horace Mann Educators Corporation, but the stock at $46.72 is a different story. The RQD verdict is a Roarable Sell with a 0% FCF yield and institutional flow pillar scoring only 7 out of 20.. FCF yield is 0.0% and RQD sits at 57/100 (D+) — why pay up here when you can wait for next quarter's numbers?

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