How profitable is The Honest Company Inc. (HNST)?

In FY 2025 (10-K), HNST converted $371.3M of revenue into a 33.3% gross margin, 0% operating margin, and $13.6M in free cash flow (3.7% FCF margin).

Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / HNST / financials

DDL (53) QVCG (33) SFIX (19) BWMX (52) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

The Honest Company Inc. (HNST) Revenue-to-Profit Sankey Flow & SEC XBRL Financials

$4.30 +3.12% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $4.32

The Honest Company Inc. (HNST) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 48/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $461.3M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is HNST stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-03, The Honest Company Inc. (NASDAQ: HNST) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 48/100 at a spot price of $4.30 (+3.12% 1D, market cap $461.3M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 7/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 12/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 7/20. Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, HNST ranks #594 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does HNST compare to DDL and QVCG in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

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Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Catalog/Specialty Distribution), HNST carries a Roarable D (48/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 33.3%, and ROIC of -18.2%. By comparison, DDL (Dingdong (Cayman) Limited (each two representing three )) holds a D+ grade (53/100 RQD, P/E 13.8x, ROIC 65.3%, cap $453.6M) and QVCG (QVC Group Inc.) posts a E grade (33/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $379.5M). Among the 5-stock peer group, DDL leads on earnings multiple (13.8x) while DDL leads on capital efficiency (65.3% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for HNST?

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Per HNST's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001530979), The Honest Company Inc. generated $371.3M in revenue (-1.9% YoY), -$15.7M in net income, and $13.6M in free cash flow against $225.4M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $4.32 (+0.37%)🧬 Disciplined Float (+0.16% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 12/20 (C-) • 3.7% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (48/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-5.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D

Quant Analyst Panel Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw D- · Rk D+

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-4.4% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for HNST)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±9.3%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (48/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY HNST SCORES 48/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+12/20 pts (25% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 3.7% FCF Margin ($13.6M FCF) & 33.3% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+12/20 pts (25% of score)

Altman Z-Score 4.37 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 5/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution7/20 pts (-13 pt drag)

Disciplined Float (+0.16% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 13 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C$5.07-4.1% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C-$4.86-6% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C-$4.57-5.9% Next Q

Current

Grade D$4.30-5.6% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C (56) → D (48)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a HNST Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While HNST currently carries a cautious 48/100 (D) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (7/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($5.17) and Max Pain ($4.52) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $6.31.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (+0.16% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $HNST• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “HNST Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 48%NO 52%Trade / Inspect Odds →

VISUAL REVENUE-TO-PROFIT SANKEY WATERFALL • FY 2025 (10-K)

How HNST Turns Every Dollar of Sales Into Real Bottom-Line Profit

Free Cash Flow:$13.6M (3.7% FCF Margin)

Multi-Year SEC EDGAR XBRL Revenue, Net Profit & Free Cash Flow Trajectory

■ Revenue■ Net Profit■ Free Cash Flow

FY23

Rev $344.4M

FY24

Rev $378.3M

FY25

Rev $371.3M

Fiscal Year	Revenue	Gross Margin	Op Margin	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	ROIC %
FY 2025	$371.3M	33.3%	-5%	-$15.7M	$13.6M	-18.2%
FY 2024	$378.3M	38.2%	-1.7%	-$6.1M	$1.0M	-5.1%
FY 2023	$344.4M	33.3%	-11.3%	-$39.2M	$19.4M	-18.2%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring HNST)

✓Walkthrough of HNST's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

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HNST // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +24.64%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT

2026-11-04O $4.17H $4.30L $4.17C $4.30VOL 3.69M

RES: $7.00SUP: $4.13SMA50: $5.17SMA200: $3.81

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

HNST Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 HNST Butterfly Map → + Track HNST →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -1.9% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on HNST today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for HNST. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for HNST today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (HNST)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #594 of 1009 ⚔️ DDL vs HNST Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (HNST vs. DDL, QVCG, SFIX, BWMX)

Industry: Catalog/Specialty Distribution (29 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, The Honest Company Inc. (HNST) ranks #594 by composite RQD confidence (48/100, grade D) and #593 by equity capitalization ($461.3M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, DDL leads on earnings valuation at 13.8x trailing P/E, while DDL leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 65.3% ROIC and — gross margin. DDL currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 53/100 (D+) compared with HNST at 48/100 (D).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
HNST ACTIVE The Honest Company Inc.	D	48/100	—	33.3%	-18.2%	+3.12%	$461.3M	Benchmark Subject
DDL Dingdong (Cayman) Limited (each two representing three )	D+	53/100	13.8x	—	65.3%	+2.13%	$453.6M	/ddl-vs-hnst →
QVCG QVC Group Inc.	E	33/100	—	33.6%	-35.0%	+10.00%	$379.5M	/qvcg-vs-hnst →
SFIX Stitch Fix Inc. (Class A)	E	19/100	—	44.4%	-33.9%	+3.33%	$372.8M	/sfix-vs-hnst →
BWMX Betterware de Mexico S.A.P.I. de C.V.	D+	52/100	—	—	—	+3.92%	$690.2M	/bwmx-vs-hnst →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001530979 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), The Honest Company Inc. (HNST) reported GAAP revenue of $371.3M (-1.9% vs. FY2024 revenue of $378.3M , and +7.8% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$15.7M, operating cash flow of $15.1M, and free cash flow of $13.6M (+1246.3% YoY). On the balance sheet, HNST closed FY2025 with $225.4M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 4.37, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$371.3M	-$15.7M	$15.1M	$13.6M	$225.4M	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$378.3M	-$6.1M	$1.5M	$1.0M	$247.4M	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$344.4M	-$39.2M	$19.4M	$19.4M	—	—

3. HNST Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is HNST stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does HNST compare to DDL and QVCG in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for HNST?

Where is HNST trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

HNST last traded at $4.30 (+3.12% on volume of 3,687,073 shares), positioning the stock -16.83% below its 50-day simple moving average ($5.17) and +12.86% above its 200-day simple moving average ($3.81). Across its 52-week range of $2.07 to $6.01, HNST sits at the 56.6% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 37.0 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±9.3% ($3.90 to $4.70).

Direct Sub-Reports: HNST RQD Cockpit HNST 12M Forecast HNST Earnings & Move HNST Dividends & DRIP HNST Insiders & 13F HNST Whale Options HNST Profit Sankey HNST News & Why

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 48/100 (D) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

HNST — The Honest Company Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit

Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

The Honest Company Inc. (HNST) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 48/100, corresponding to a D letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $4.30 (+3.12% 1D, market capitalization $461.3M).

Fundamental Cash Engine (12/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of -18.2%, gross margin of 33.3%, operating margin of -5.0%, and free cash flow yield of 2.76%.
Whale 13F & Options Flow (7/20) + Insider Conviction (7/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
Macro Regime Fit (10/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (12/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 4.37, Piotroski F-Score of 5/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

. Is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Consumer Discretionary sector, operating in the Catalog/Specialty Distribution industry. The profile describes the company's market capitalization as $0.5B.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), The Honest Company Inc. (HNST) reported $371.3M in annual revenue (up from $378.3M in FY2024, -1.9% YoY) and -$15.7M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($344.4M revenue, -$39.2M net income) through FY2025, HNST scaled operating cash flow to $15.1M and free cash flow to $13.6M, backed by $225.4M in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

🐂 Primary Bull Case (D • RQD 48/100): Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of 2.76% and institutional whale pillar of 7/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 12/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 7/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $2.07 – $6.01 52-week range.
🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation against -5.0% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Upstream and downstream dependencies are — Sector correlations beyond the stated Consumer Discretionary classification are — The key 2nd-order item to monitor is the scheduled third quarter 2026 results release, since reported operating losses across the financial periods are the central fundamental question in the dataset.

Key Question #1: Can HNST sustain or expand its -5.0% operating margin and -18.2% ROIC against Catalog/Specialty Distribution peers over the next 4 quarters?
Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $371.3M and free cash flow of $13.6M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
Key Question #3: How sensitive is HNST's equity valuation to Consumer Discretionary capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

HNST Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for The Honest Company Inc. (HNST) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to HNST Debate Forum (3) ↓

🟡 MARKET WIRE CNN • 1d ago

symbol__ Stock Quote Price and Forecast

CNN report covering The Honest Company Inc. (HNST) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 1d ago

The Honest Company to Report Third Quarter 2026 Financial Results on November 5, 2026

Yahoo Finance report covering The Honest Company Inc. (HNST) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE TradingView • 2d ago

The Honest Company, Inc. Estimates – NASDAQ:HNST

TradingView report covering The Honest Company Inc. (HNST) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Investing.com • 2d ago

Honest company SVP Thomas Sternweis sells $122,500 in stock

Investing.com report covering The Honest Company Inc. (HNST) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE MarketBeat • 2d ago

The Honest Company, Inc. (NASDAQ:HNST) Stock Has Consensus Price Target of $4.84 According to Analysts

MarketBeat report covering The Honest Company Inc. (HNST) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE The Times of India • 2d ago

Jessica Alba turned a pregnancy concern into The Honest Company; its valuation reached nearly $2.1 billio

The Times of India report covering The Honest Company Inc. (HNST) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Simply Wall St • 2d ago

Breakeven Is Near for The Honest Company, Inc. (NASDAQ:HNST)

Simply Wall St report covering The Honest Company Inc. (HNST) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE The Economic Times • 2d ago

In 2011, Jessica Alba co-founded The Honest Company around household and baby products; its 2021 market de

The Economic Times report covering The Honest Company Inc. (HNST) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

HNST Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $4.30?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON HNST 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION

MA MacroHawk_NYC RQD DEBATE OPENER • Cross-Asset Macro Desk 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $4.88 (+17.0%)

📌 Pinned Debate

Positive reported free cash flow of $13.6M in FY 2025 and a Altman Z of 4.37 suggest the balance sheet is more resilient than the negat

The street is overcomplicating The Honest Company Inc. (HNST). Positive reported free cash flow of $13.6M in FY 2025 and a Altman Z of 4.37 suggest the balance sheet is more resilient than the negative earnings alone imply.. With an RQD score of 48/100 (D) and Forensic Balance Sheet at 12/20, any positive earnings surprise or guidance raise forces underweight funds to chase above $4.50.

ArenaChamp_24 🐂 BULL

@MacroHawk_NYC Agree on the RQD 48/100 quality, though with 1.0 beta I'm scaling in with half-size at $4.17 and keeping dry powder in case we test $3.88.

CR CreditSpread_Watch RQD DEBATE OPENER • Balance Sheet Analyst 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $3.46 (-17.0%)

Spot @ $4.17

Operating losses in every reported period and ROIC of -18.2% place the cash-generation pillar at 12/20 within a D-grade rating.

Operating losses in every reported period and ROIC of -18.2% place the cash-generation pillar at 12/20 within a D-grade rating.. Look at the math on HNST: paying current EV/EBITDA multiples for -18.2% ROIC and -5.0% operating margins leaves zero margin of safety if Catalog/Specialty Distribution demand softens. I'd wait for a retest of $3.67 before getting long.