ROARABLE
FREE $100K
My Trading Account →
▾
Trading Profile Active
Active Trader
Verified Trader
⚡ My $100K Trading Account → ★ My Saved Watchlist →
🟢 My $100K Account → Today Screener Big Ideas Track Record 💰 $100K Arena 🎲 Predictions 🏛️ Insiders 8 Analysts
Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / HNST / news
DDL (53) QVCG (33) SFIX (19) BWMX (52) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Why HNST Stock surged +3.12% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

$4.30 +3.12% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $4.32

The Honest Company Inc. (HNST) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 48/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $461.3M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on HNST Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is HNST stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
▼

As of 2026-11-03, The Honest Company Inc. (NASDAQ: HNST) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 48/100 at a spot price of $4.30 (+3.12% 1D, market cap $461.3M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 7/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 12/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 7/20. Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, HNST ranks #594 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does HNST compare to DDL and QVCG in the Consumer Discretionary sector?
▼

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Catalog/Specialty Distribution), HNST carries a Roarable D (48/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 33.3%, and ROIC of -18.2%. By comparison, DDL (Dingdong (Cayman) Limited (each two representing three )) holds a D+ grade (53/100 RQD, P/E 13.8x, ROIC 65.3%, cap $453.6M) and QVCG (QVC Group Inc.) posts a E grade (33/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $379.5M). Among the 5-stock peer group, DDL leads on earnings multiple (13.8x) while DDL leads on capital efficiency (65.3% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for HNST?
▼

Per HNST's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001530979), The Honest Company Inc. generated $371.3M in revenue (-1.9% YoY), -$15.7M in net income, and $13.6M in free cash flow against $225.4M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $4.32 (+0.37%)🧬 Disciplined Float (+0.16% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 12/20 (C-) • 3.7% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (48/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-5.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D
025507510048
Quant Analyst Panel Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw D- · Rk D+
Cash (12)Whales (7)SEC (12)Macro (10)CEO (7)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-4.4% Base Target
$6 Bull$4 Base$3 Bear
📬 FREE HNST RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for HNST)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±9.3%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (48/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY HNST SCORES 48/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+12/20 pts (25% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 3.7% FCF Margin ($13.6M FCF) & 33.3% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+12/20 pts (25% of score)

Altman Z-Score 4.37 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 5/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution7/20 pts (-13 pt drag)

Disciplined Float (+0.16% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 13 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
56
Grade C$5.07-4.1% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
53
Grade C-$4.86-6% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
51
Grade C-$4.57-5.9% Next Q
Current
48
Grade D$4.30-5.6% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C (56) → D (48)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a HNST Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While HNST currently carries a cautious 48/100 (D) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (7/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($5.17) and Max Pain ($4.52) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $6.31.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (+0.16% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $HNST• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “HNST Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 48%NO 52%Trade / Inspect Odds →
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →

Why HNST Stock surged +3.12% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

The Honest Company Inc. (HNST) surged +3.12% to $4.30, trading at 57% of its 52-week range ($2.07 – $6.01). Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-18% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.

  • ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 57% of its 52-week range ($2.07 – $6.01) with RSI-14 at 37 (NEUTRAL RANGE).
  • ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±9.3% around $4.30 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
  • ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable D (Sell) backed by 33.3% gross margin and $13.6M annual free cash flow.
Live HNST Headlines & Catalysts
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring HNST)

  • ✓Walkthrough of HNST's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?
Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena
HNST // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +24.64%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT
2026-11-04O $4.17H $4.30L $4.17C $4.30VOL 3.69M
RES: $7.00SUP: $4.13SMA50: $5.17SMA200: $3.81
$6.22$5.35$4.47$3.59$2.72RES $7.00SUP $4.13$4.302026-05-052026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-04
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

HNST Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 HNST Butterfly Map → + Track HNST →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -1.9% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on HNST today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for HNST. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for HNST today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (HNST)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #594 of 1009 ⚔️ DDL vs HNST Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (HNST vs. DDL, QVCG, SFIX, BWMX)

Industry: Catalog/Specialty Distribution (29 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, The Honest Company Inc. (HNST) ranks #594 by composite RQD confidence (48/100, grade D) and #593 by equity capitalization ($461.3M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, DDL leads on earnings valuation at 13.8x trailing P/E, while DDL leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 65.3% ROIC and — gross margin. DDL currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 53/100 (D+) compared with HNST at 48/100 (D).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
HNST ACTIVE
The Honest Company Inc.
D 48/100 — 33.3% -18.2% +3.12% $461.3M Benchmark Subject
DDL
Dingdong (Cayman) Limited (each two representing three )
D+ 53/100 13.8x — 65.3% +2.13% $453.6M /ddl-vs-hnst →
QVCG
QVC Group Inc.
E 33/100 — 33.6% -35.0% +10.00% $379.5M /qvcg-vs-hnst →
SFIX
Stitch Fix Inc. (Class A)
E 19/100 — 44.4% -33.9% +3.33% $372.8M /sfix-vs-hnst →
BWMX
Betterware de Mexico S.A.P.I. de C.V.
D+ 52/100 — — — +3.92% $690.2M /bwmx-vs-hnst →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001530979 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), The Honest Company Inc. (HNST) reported GAAP revenue of $371.3M (-1.9% vs. FY2024 revenue of $378.3M , and +7.8% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$15.7M, operating cash flow of $15.1M, and free cash flow of $13.6M (+1246.3% YoY). On the balance sheet, HNST closed FY2025 with $225.4M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 4.37, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $371.3M -$15.7M $15.1M $13.6M $225.4M —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $378.3M -$6.1M $1.5M $1.0M $247.4M —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $344.4M -$39.2M $19.4M $19.4M — —

3. HNST Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is HNST stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, The Honest Company Inc. (NASDAQ: HNST) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 48/100 at a spot price of $4.30 (+3.12% 1D, market cap $461.3M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 7/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 12/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 7/20. Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, HNST ranks #594 in composite RQD confidence.

How does HNST compare to DDL and QVCG in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Catalog/Specialty Distribution), HNST carries a Roarable D (48/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 33.3%, and ROIC of -18.2%. By comparison, DDL (Dingdong (Cayman) Limited (each two representing three )) holds a D+ grade (53/100 RQD, P/E 13.8x, ROIC 65.3%, cap $453.6M) and QVCG (QVC Group Inc.) posts a E grade (33/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $379.5M). Among the 5-stock peer group, DDL leads on earnings multiple (13.8x) while DDL leads on capital efficiency (65.3% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for HNST?

Per HNST's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001530979), The Honest Company Inc. generated $371.3M in revenue (-1.9% YoY), -$15.7M in net income, and $13.6M in free cash flow against $225.4M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is HNST trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

HNST last traded at $4.30 (+3.12% on volume of 3,687,073 shares), positioning the stock -16.83% below its 50-day simple moving average ($5.17) and +12.86% above its 200-day simple moving average ($3.81). Across its 52-week range of $2.07 to $6.01, HNST sits at the 56.6% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 37.0 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±9.3% ($3.90 to $4.70).

Direct Sub-Reports: HNST RQD Cockpit HNST 12M Forecast HNST Earnings & Move HNST Dividends & DRIP HNST Insiders & 13F HNST Whale Options HNST Profit Sankey HNST News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 48/100 (D) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

HNST — The Honest Company Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

The Honest Company Inc. (HNST) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 48/100, corresponding to a D letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $4.30 (+3.12% 1D, market capitalization $461.3M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (12/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of -18.2%, gross margin of 33.3%, operating margin of -5.0%, and free cash flow yield of 2.76%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (7/20) + Insider Conviction (7/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (10/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (12/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 4.37, Piotroski F-Score of 5/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

. Is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Consumer Discretionary sector, operating in the Catalog/Specialty Distribution industry. The profile describes the company's market capitalization as $0.5B.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), The Honest Company Inc. (HNST) reported $371.3M in annual revenue (up from $378.3M in FY2024, -1.9% YoY) and -$15.7M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($344.4M revenue, -$39.2M net income) through FY2025, HNST scaled operating cash flow to $15.1M and free cash flow to $13.6M, backed by $225.4M in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D • RQD 48/100): Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of 2.76% and institutional whale pillar of 7/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 12/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 7/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $2.07 – $6.01 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation against -5.0% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Upstream and downstream dependencies are — Sector correlations beyond the stated Consumer Discretionary classification are — The key 2nd-order item to monitor is the scheduled third quarter 2026 results release, since reported operating losses across the financial periods are the central fundamental question in the dataset.

  • Key Question #1: Can HNST sustain or expand its -5.0% operating margin and -18.2% ROIC against Catalog/Specialty Distribution peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $371.3M and free cash flow of $13.6M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is HNST's equity valuation to Consumer Discretionary capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

HNST Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for The Honest Company Inc. (HNST) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to HNST Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

HNST Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $4.30?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON HNST 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on HNST:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
MA MacroHawk_NYC RQD DEBATE OPENER • Cross-Asset Macro Desk 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $4.88 (+17.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Positive reported free cash flow of $13.6M in FY 2025 and a Altman Z of 4.37 suggest the balance sheet is more resilient than the negat

The street is overcomplicating The Honest Company Inc. (HNST). Positive reported free cash flow of $13.6M in FY 2025 and a Altman Z of 4.37 suggest the balance sheet is more resilient than the negative earnings alone imply.. With an RQD score of 48/100 (D) and Forensic Balance Sheet at 12/20, any positive earnings surprise or guidance raise forces underweight funds to chase above $4.50.

ArenaChamp_24 🐂 BULL

@MacroHawk_NYC Agree on the RQD 48/100 quality, though with 1.0 beta I'm scaling in with half-size at $4.17 and keeping dry powder in case we test $3.88.

CR CreditSpread_Watch RQD DEBATE OPENER • Balance Sheet Analyst 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $3.46 (-17.0%)
Spot @ $4.17

Operating losses in every reported period and ROIC of -18.2% place the cash-generation pillar at 12/20 within a D-grade rating.

Operating losses in every reported period and ROIC of -18.2% place the cash-generation pillar at 12/20 within a D-grade rating.. Look at the math on HNST: paying current EV/EBITDA multiples for -18.2% ROIC and -5.0% operating margins leaves zero margin of safety if Catalog/Specialty Distribution demand softens. I'd wait for a retest of $3.67 before getting long.

LIVE TAPE