What is HZO's 12-month stock price target?

MarineMax Inc. (FL) (HZO) carries a 12-month consensus base price target of $51.28 (-2.7% from $52.70), with a bull-case target of $60.51 and a bear-case floor of $40.

Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / HZO / forecast

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MarineMax Inc. (FL) (HZO) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

Q: Is HZO stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now?

Roarable's 5-Pillar RQD Quant Engine rates HZO D+ (Sell — SELL) with an RQD Confidence score of 52/100.

$52.70 -0.11% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $52.59

MarineMax Inc. (FL) (HZO) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 52/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID Cap $1.17B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on HZO Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is HZO stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-03, MarineMax Inc. (FL) (NYSE: HZO) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 52/100 at a spot price of $52.70 (-0.11% 1D, market cap $1.17B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 11/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 16/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 5/20. Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, HZO ranks #506 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does HZO compare to AAP and ONEW in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

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Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Auto & Home Supply Stores), HZO carries a Roarable D+ (52/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 32.5%, and ROIC of 2.4%. By comparison, AAP (Advance Auto Parts Inc.) holds a E grade (28/100 RQD, P/E 62.8x, ROIC -1.4%, cap $2.72B) and ONEW (OneWater Marine Inc. (Class A)) posts a E grade (31/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -11.2%, cap $160.7M). Among the 5-stock peer group, AZO leads on earnings multiple (20.2x) while AZO leads on capital efficiency (55.8% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for HZO?

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Per HZO's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-09-30, CIK 0001057060), MarineMax Inc. (FL) generated $2.31B in revenue (-5.0% YoY), -$31.6M in net income, and $11.9M in free cash flow against $2.43B in total assets and $347.5M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

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INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $52.59 (-0.21%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+1.92% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 11/20 (D+) • 0.5% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 52/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-1.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 50.1% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk D

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-2.7% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for HZO)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±1.8%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (52/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY HZO SCORES 52/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+16/20 pts (31% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±1.8% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+11/20 pts (21% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 0.5% FCF Margin ($11.9M FCF) & 32.5% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution5/20 pts (-15 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+1.92% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 15 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade D$52.39-0.1% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade D$52.36+0.2% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade D$52.48+0.4% Next Q

Current

Grade D+$52.70-1.1% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: D (44) → D+ (52)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a HZO Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While HZO currently carries a cautious 52/100 (D+) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (5/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($52.35) and Max Pain ($55.34) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $60.51.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+1.92% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $HZO• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “HZO Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 29, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 52%NO 48%Trade / Inspect Odds →

INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your HZO Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $52.70: 189.8 sh

$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000

12M Bear Case FloorTarget $40.00

$7,590

$-2,410 (-24.1%)

12M Consensus BaseTarget $51.28

$9,731

$-269 (-2.7%)

12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $60.51

$11,482

+$1,482 (+14.8%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (32 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100

● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 6

Wall Street Firm	Stance	12M Target	1Y Accuracy	Track Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity Desk	HOLD	$53	74%	A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage Lead	UNDERPERFORM	$57	69%	B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap Research	SELL	$46	58%	C

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring HZO)

✓Walkthrough of HZO's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

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HZO // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +90.53%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE

2026-11-03O $52.59H $52.76L $52.59C $52.70VOL 987.6K

RES: $52.77SUP: $51.95SMA50: $52.35SMA200: $37.59

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

HZO Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 HZO Butterfly Map → + Track HZO →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle

13.1%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -5.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on HZO today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for HZO. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for HZO today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (HZO)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #506 of 1009 ⚔️ AAP vs HZO Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (HZO vs. AAP, ONEW, PRTS, AZO)

Industry: Auto & Home Supply Stores (6 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, MarineMax Inc. (FL) (HZO) ranks #506 by composite RQD confidence (52/100, grade D+) and #490 by equity capitalization ($1.17B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, AZO leads on earnings valuation at 20.2x trailing P/E, while AZO leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 55.8% ROIC and 52.6% gross margin. AZO currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 67/100 (C+) compared with HZO at 52/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
HZO ACTIVE MarineMax Inc. (FL)	D+	52/100	—	32.5%	2.4%	-0.11%	$1.17B	Benchmark Subject
AAP Advance Auto Parts Inc.	E	28/100	62.8x	43.4%	-1.4%	+6.23%	$2.72B	/aap-vs-hzo →
ONEW OneWater Marine Inc. (Class A)	E	31/100	—	22.8%	-11.2%	+6.95%	$160.7M	/onew-vs-hzo →
PRTS CarParts.com Inc.	E	21/100	—	32.8%	-35.0%	+7.97%	$55.7M	/prts-vs-hzo →
AZO AutoZone Inc.	C+	67/100	20.2x	52.6%	55.8%	+2.62%	$51.02B	/azo-vs-hzo →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-09-30 • CIK 0001057060 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-09-30), MarineMax Inc. (FL) (HZO) reported GAAP revenue of $2.31B (-5.0% vs. FY2024 revenue of $2.43B , and -3.6% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$31.6M, operating cash flow of $72.8M, and free cash flow of $11.9M (+113.9% YoY). On the balance sheet, HZO closed FY2025 with $2.43B in total assets against $347.5M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 1.98, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-09-30	$2.31B	-$31.6M	$72.8M	$11.9M	$2.43B	$347.5M
FY2024 (FY)	2024-09-30	$2.43B	$38.1M	-$25.7M	-$86.1M	$2.63B	$347.3M
FY2023 (FY)	2023-09-30	$2.39B	$109.3M	-$222.2M	-$222.2M	—	—

3. HZO Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is HZO stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does HZO compare to AAP and ONEW in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for HZO?

Where is HZO trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

HZO last traded at $52.70 (-0.11% on volume of 701,342 shares), positioning the stock +0.67% above its 50-day simple moving average ($52.35) and +40.20% above its 200-day simple moving average ($37.59). Across its 52-week range of $21.42 to $52.76, HZO sits at the 99.8% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 65.1 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±1.8% ($51.75 to $53.65).

Direct Sub-Reports: HZO RQD Cockpit HZO 12M Forecast HZO Earnings & Move HZO Dividends & DRIP HZO Insiders & 13F HZO Whale Options HZO Profit Sankey HZO News & Why

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 52/100 (D+) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

HZO — MarineMax Inc. (FL): What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit

Updated: 2025-09-30

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

MarineMax Inc. (FL) (HZO) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 52/100, corresponding to a D+ letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $52.70 (-0.11% 1D, market capitalization $1.17B).

Fundamental Cash Engine (11/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 2.4%, gross margin of 32.5%, operating margin of 1.5%, and free cash flow yield of 1.03%.
Whale 13F & Options Flow (16/20) + Insider Conviction (5/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
Macro Regime Fit (10/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (10/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 1.98, Piotroski F-Score of 6/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.37x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

MarineMax Inc. (FL) is a NYSE-listed issuer classified under the Consumer Discretionary sector and the Auto & Home Supply Stores industry. Reported revenue of $2.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-09-30), MarineMax Inc. (FL) (HZO) reported $2.31B in annual revenue (up from $2.43B in FY2024, -5.0% YoY) and -$31.6M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($2.39B revenue, $109.3M net income) through FY2025, HZO scaled operating cash flow to $72.8M and free cash flow to $11.9M, backed by $2.43B in total assets against $347.5M in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

🐂 Primary Bull Case (D+ • RQD 52/100): Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side. Free cash flow yield of 1.03% and institutional whale pillar of 16/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 11/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 16/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $21.42 – $52.76 52-week range.
🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation and 15.7x EV/EBITDA against 1.5% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Operating in Auto & Home Supply Stores (Consumer Discretionary), HZO carries a macro regime beta of 1.00 and gross margin of 32.5%.

Key Question #1: Can HZO sustain or expand its 1.5% operating margin and 2.4% ROIC against Auto & Home Supply Stores peers over the next 4 quarters?
Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $2.31B and free cash flow of $11.9M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $347.5M in total debt?
Key Question #3: How sensitive is HZO's equity valuation to Consumer Discretionary capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

HZO Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for MarineMax Inc. (FL) (HZO) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to HZO Debate Forum (3) ↓

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo • 6d ago

MarineMax to Report Fourth Quarter and Full Year Fiscal 2026 Financial Results on Wednesday, November 4, 2026

OLDSMAR, Fla., October 28, 2026--MarineMax, Inc. (NYSE: HZO) ("MarineMax" or the "Company"), a boat and yacht retailer, marina operator, and superyacht services company, plans to release its fourth quarter and full year

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo • 7d ago

Why CarMax Stock And US Consumer Shares Could Gain From A Fed Pause

Fed policy is back in the spotlight as investors weigh a likely pause in October against the risk of another hike while inflation sits at 3.7%. Rate sensitive, domestically focused consumer stocks feel that push and pull

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST Yahoo • 18d ago

3 Profitable Stocks We’re Skeptical Of

Not all profitable companies are built to last - some rely on outdated models or unsustainable advantages. Just because a business is in the green today doesn’t mean it will thrive tomorrow.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 32d ago

1 Momentum Stock to Research Further and 2 We Turn Down

The stocks in this article are all trading near their 52-week highs. This strength often reflects positive developments such as new product launches, favorable industry trends, or improved financial performance.

Read Full Source ↗

🔴 RISK WATCH Yahoo Finance • 38d ago

3 Cash-Producing Stocks We Keep Off Our Radar

Generating cash is essential for any business, but not all cash-rich companies are great investments. Some produce plenty of cash but fail to allocate it effectively, leading to missed opportunities.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 52d ago

Automotive and Marine Retail Stocks Q2 Recap: Benchmarking MarineMax (NYSE:HZO)

As the Q2 earnings season comes to a close, it’s time to take stock of this quarter’s best and worst performers in the automotive and marine retail industry, including MarineMax (NYSE:HZO) and its peers.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 61d ago

1 Small-Cap Stock on Our Buy List and 2 We Ignore

Investors looking for hidden gems should keep an eye on small-cap stocks because they’re frequently overlooked by Wall Street. Many opportunities exist in this part of the market, but it is also a high-risk, high-reward

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 79d ago

MarineMax (HZO): Buy, Sell, or Hold Post Q2 Earnings?

The past six months have been a windfall for MarineMax’s shareholders. The company’s stock price has jumped 79.7%, hitting $52.16 per share. This run-up might have investors contemplating their next move.

Read Full Source ↗

🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

HZO Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $52.70?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON HZO 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION

QU QuantViper RQD DEBATE OPENER • Systematic Momentum Desk 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $61.20 (+16.0%)

📌 Pinned Debate

Institutional whale-flow pillar scores 15/20, the strongest of the five RQD pillars, signaling relative institutional interest.

Picked up a starter position in HZO in my $100K Virtual Cash book at $52.76. Institutional whale-flow pillar scores 15/20, the strongest of the five RQD pillars, signaling relative institutional interest.. Trading inside a $21.42–$52.76 52-week range with 1.03% FCF yield gives solid downside support if Auto & Home Supply Stores multiples expand this quarter.

RetailWhale_TX 🐂 BULL

Both sides have a point here — HZO's 10/20 balance sheet score keeps downside contained, so the real swing factor next earnings call is backlog and FCF conversion.

SH ShortSeller_Dan RQD DEBATE OPENER • Forensic Short Bias 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $45.37 (-14.0%)

Spot @ $52.76

Net margin of -1.4% and FY 2025 net loss of -$31.6M, with a 1.03% FCF yield, leave thin cash returns and weak earnings support.

Net margin of -1.4% and FY 2025 net loss of -$31.6M, with a 1.03% FCF yield, leave thin cash returns and weak earnings support.. Look at the math on HZO: paying current EV/EBITDA multiples for 2.4% ROIC and 1.5% operating margins leaves zero margin of safety if Auto & Home Supply Stores demand softens. I'd wait for a retest of $46.43 before getting long.