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Stock Ratings / Health Care / INVA / earnings
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Innoviva Inc. (INVA) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±4.5% Move

$21.02 -0.94% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $20.94

Innoviva Inc. (INVA) carries a Roarable Rating of C (Hold) with 65/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

ROARABLE C • HOLD / WATCH Cap $1.53B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on INVA Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is INVA stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Innoviva Inc. (NASDAQ: INVA) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 65/100 at a spot price of $21.02 (-0.94% 1D, market cap $1.53B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 15/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 14/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 15/20. Across 1015 tracked Health Care issuers, INVA ranks #118 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does INVA compare to OCUL and GPCR in the Health Care sector?
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Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), INVA carries a Roarable C (65/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 74.8%, and ROIC of 14.7%. By comparison, OCUL (Ocular Therapeutix Inc.) holds a E grade (24/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $1.53B) and GPCR (Structure Therapeutics Inc.) posts a E grade (27/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -19.5%, cap $1.56B). Among the 5-stock peer group, PAHC leads on earnings multiple (32.7x) while INVA leads on capital efficiency (14.7% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for INVA?
▼

Per INVA's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001080014), Innoviva Inc. generated $411.3M in revenue (+14.7% YoY), $0 in net income, and $195.8M in free cash flow against $1.64B in total assets and $257.7M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (74.8% gross margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $20.94 (-0.36%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 15/20 (B) • 47.6% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 65/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.3% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 55.6% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C
025507510065
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C · Rk C+
Cash (15)Whales (8)SEC (13)Macro (14)CEO (15)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+3.1% Base Target
$26 Bull$22 Base$17 Bear
📬 FREE INVA RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for INVA)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±4.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (65/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY INVA SCORES 65/100 (C) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+15/20 pts (23% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 47.6% FCF Margin ($195.8M FCF) & 74.8% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+15/20 pts (23% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 75% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning8/20 pts (-12 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-12 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
57
Grade C$20.74+2.6% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
60
Grade C$21.28-1.6% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
62
Grade C+$20.94+0.4% Next Q
Current
65
Grade C$21.02+1.3% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C (57) → C (65)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the INVA Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 65/100 (C) score, INVA faces multiple-compression risk if current valuation multiples re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 72.3% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($21.00) or 200D SMA ($21.90) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($21.68) toward Bear Floor ($16.91).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $INVA• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “INVA Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 65%NO 35%Trade / Inspect Odds →
NEXT EST. WINDOW: Dec 30, 2026 (~56 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±4.5% Swing Band

±$0.95 Expected Swing
$20.07 (-4.5%)Spot $21.02$21.97 (+4.5%)
MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

INVA Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 65/100

Trailing EPS: $4.25 • YoY Revenue Growth: 14.7%

Model Bullish Setup (65/100)Model Risk Weight (35/100)
Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).
LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

PeriodFiledRevenueNet ProfitFree Cash FlowGross Margin
FY 20252025-12-31$411.3M$0$195.8M74.8%
FY 20242024-12-31$358.7M$0$188.4M82.6%
FY 20232023-12-31$310.5M$0$141.1M74.8%
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher + Options & Swing Structure Desk

Whale Flow & Momentum Playbook: Evaluating INVA & AI Leaders Without Chasing Tops

  • ✓Institutional whale strikes & implied earnings move audit on INVA
  • ✓How disciplined traders manage risk using pre-published trigger & invalidation levels
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on tracked leaders
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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INVA // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -8.57%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-03O $21.31H $21.31L $21.02C $21.02VOL 623.3K
RES: $21.64SUP: $20.26SMA50: $21.00SMA200: $21.90
$24.45$23.30$22.15$20.99$19.84RES $21.64SUP $20.26$21.022026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

INVA Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 INVA Butterfly Map → + Track INVA →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
-2.2%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +14.7% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on INVA today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for INVA. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for INVA today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (INVA)

Health Care Rank #118 of 1015 ⚔️ OCUL vs INVA Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (INVA vs. OCUL, GPCR, ETON, PAHC)

Industry: Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations (489 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1015 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Innoviva Inc. (INVA) ranks #118 by composite RQD confidence (65/100, grade C) and #299 by equity capitalization ($1.53B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, PAHC leads on earnings valuation at 32.7x trailing P/E, while INVA leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 14.7% ROIC and 74.8% gross margin. INVA currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 65/100 (C).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
INVA ACTIVE
Innoviva Inc.
C 65/100 — 74.8% 14.7% -0.94% $1.53B Benchmark Subject
OCUL
Ocular Therapeutix Inc.
E 24/100 — 87.3% -35.0% -3.44% $1.53B /ocul-vs-inva →
GPCR
Structure Therapeutics Inc.
E 27/100 — — -19.5% -6.40% $1.56B /gpcr-vs-inva →
ETON
Eton Pharmaceuticals Inc.
D+ 57/100 — 53.5% -0.9% -2.63% $1.49B /eton-vs-inva →
PAHC
Phibro Animal Health Corporation (Class A)
D+ 56/100 32.7x 30.9% 9.9% -0.36% $1.58B /pahc-vs-inva →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001080014 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Innoviva Inc. (INVA) reported GAAP revenue of $411.3M (+14.7% vs. FY2024 revenue of $358.7M , and +32.5% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $0, operating cash flow of $196.9M, and free cash flow of $195.8M (+3.9% YoY). On the balance sheet, INVA closed FY2025 with $1.64B in total assets against $257.7M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $411.3M $0 $196.9M $195.8M $1.64B $257.7M
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $358.7M $0 $188.7M $188.4M $1.30B $256.3M
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $310.5M $0 $141.1M $141.1M — —

3. INVA Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is INVA stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Innoviva Inc. (NASDAQ: INVA) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 65/100 at a spot price of $21.02 (-0.94% 1D, market cap $1.53B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 15/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 14/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 15/20. Across 1015 tracked Health Care issuers, INVA ranks #118 in composite RQD confidence.

How does INVA compare to OCUL and GPCR in the Health Care sector?

Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), INVA carries a Roarable C (65/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 74.8%, and ROIC of 14.7%. By comparison, OCUL (Ocular Therapeutix Inc.) holds a E grade (24/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $1.53B) and GPCR (Structure Therapeutics Inc.) posts a E grade (27/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -19.5%, cap $1.56B). Among the 5-stock peer group, PAHC leads on earnings multiple (32.7x) while INVA leads on capital efficiency (14.7% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for INVA?

Per INVA's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001080014), Innoviva Inc. generated $411.3M in revenue (+14.7% YoY), $0 in net income, and $195.8M in free cash flow against $1.64B in total assets and $257.7M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (74.8% gross margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is INVA trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

INVA last traded at $21.02 (-0.94% on volume of 1,120,585 shares), positioning the stock +0.10% above its 50-day simple moving average ($21.00) and -4.02% below its 200-day simple moving average ($21.90). Across its 52-week range of $17.84 to $25.15, INVA sits at the 43.5% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 53.1 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±4.5% ($20.07 to $21.97).

Direct Sub-Reports: INVA RQD Cockpit INVA 12M Forecast INVA Earnings & Move INVA Dividends & DRIP INVA Insiders & 13F INVA Whale Options INVA Profit Sankey INVA News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 65/100 (C) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

INVA — Innoviva Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Innoviva Inc. (INVA) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 65/100, corresponding to a C letter grade (Roarable Hold) at a spot price of $21.02 (-0.94% 1D, market capitalization $1.53B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (15/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 14.7%, gross margin of 74.8%, operating margin of 39.8%, and free cash flow yield of 12.72%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (8/20) + Insider Conviction (15/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (14/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (13/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 6/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.22x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Innoviva Inc. (INVA) is a NASDAQ-listed issuer classified in the Health Care sector, within the Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations industry..5B. — describes the company's specific products, customers, or revenue model beyond the sector and industry classification.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Innoviva Inc. (INVA) reported $411.3M in annual revenue (up from $358.7M in FY2024, +14.7% YoY) and $0 in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($310.5M revenue, $0 net income) through FY2025, INVA scaled operating cash flow to $196.9M and free cash flow to $195.8M, backed by $1.64B in total assets against $257.7M in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (C • RQD 65/100): Strong cash generator (74.8% gross margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 15/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 8/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $17.84 – $25.15 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Investors must weigh current valuation and 7.6x EV/EBITDA against 39.8% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Operating in Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations (Health Care), INVA carries a macro regime beta of 1.00 and gross margin of 74.8%.

  • Key Question #1: Can INVA sustain or expand its 39.8% operating margin and 14.7% ROIC against Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $411.3M and free cash flow of $195.8M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $257.7M in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is INVA's equity valuation to Health Care capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

INVA Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Innoviva Inc. (INVA) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to INVA Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

INVA Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $21.02?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON INVA 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on INVA:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
AL AlphaFlow_Cap RQD DEBATE OPENER • Verified $100K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $27.80 (+31.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Strong cash generation, with FY 2025 FCF of $195.8M and a 12.72% FCF yield, supports the fundamental pillar.

Don't sleep on INVA's setup in Health Care. Strong cash generation, with FY 2025 FCF of $195.8M and a 12.72% FCF yield, supports the fundamental pillar.. Beta of 1.0 means it moves fast when momentum turns, and the 5-pillar RQD gauge (65/100) backs up the fundamental quality.

RetailWhale_TX 🐂 BULL

Both sides have a point here — INVA's 13/20 balance sheet score keeps downside contained, so the real swing factor next earnings call is backlog and FCF conversion.

CR CreditSpread_Watch RQD DEBATE OPENER • Balance Sheet Analyst 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $18.04 (-15.0%)
Spot @ $21.22

Reported net income of $0.0M across all periods and missing EPS/P/E data leave earnings quality unverifiable.

Sitting on the sidelines or leaning short INVA above $21.22. Reported net income of $0.0M across all periods and missing EPS/P/E data leave earnings quality unverifiable.. Until Fundamental Cash Engine (15/20) and FCF yield (12.72%) inflect higher, upside is capped near $25.15.

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