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Stock Ratings / Health Care / IONS / forecast
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Ionis Pharmaceuticals Inc. (IONS) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$41.24 -5.24% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $40.77

Ionis Pharmaceuticals Inc. (IONS) carries a Roarable Rating of E (Strong Sell) with 26/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE E • RED ALERT Cap $6.85B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on IONS Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is IONS stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
▼

As of 2026-11-03, Ionis Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: IONS) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 26/100 at a spot price of $41.24 (-5.24% 1D, market cap $6.85B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 6/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 5/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 6/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 3/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 6/20. Across 1015 tracked Health Care issuers, IONS ranks #898 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does IONS compare to AMRX and AXSM in the Health Care sector?
▼

Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), IONS carries a Roarable E (26/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 96.0%, and ROIC of -20.9%. By comparison, AMRX (Amneal Pharmaceuticals Inc.) holds a B- grade (71/100 RQD, P/E 103.2x, ROIC 14.1%, cap $7.12B) and AXSM (Axsome Therapeutics Inc.) posts a D- grade (35/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -21.9%, cap $7.12B). Among the 5-stock peer group, AMRX leads on earnings multiple (103.2x) while AMRX leads on capital efficiency (14.1% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for IONS?
▼

Per IONS's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000874015), Ionis Pharmaceuticals Inc. generated $943.7M in revenue (+33.8% YoY), -$381.4M in net income, and -$320.0M in free cash flow against $3.52B in total assets and $1.33B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $40.77 (-1.13%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+1.64% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 6/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (26/100 · E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-10.5% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • E
025507510026
3-of-3 Quant Analysts Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw E · Rk E
Cash (6)Whales (5)SEC (6)Macro (3)CEO (6)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-14.4% Base Target
$91 Bull$35 Base$28 Bear
📬 FREE IONS RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for IONS)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±7.4%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (26/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY IONS SCORES 26/100 (E) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+6/20 pts (23% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 0% FCF Margin ($0 FCF) & 98.3% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+6/20 pts (23% of score)

Altman Z-Score 1.08 (DISTRESS RISK (<1.8)) • Piotroski F-Score 5/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (36.2) create a -16 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
34
Grade E$44.12-0.5% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
31
Grade E$43.91+1.1% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
29
Grade E$44.39-7.1% Next Q
Current
26
Grade E$41.24-10.5% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: E (34) → E (26)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a IONS Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While IONS currently carries a cautious 26/100 (E) rating due to Macro Regime Fit (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($47.52) and Max Pain ($43.30) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $91.08.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+1.64% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $IONS• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “IONS Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 26%NO 74%Trade / Inspect Odds →
INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your IONS Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $41.24: 242.5 sh
$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000
12M Bear Case FloorTarget $27.53
$6,676
$-3,324 (-33.2%)
12M Consensus BaseTarget $35.30
$8,560
$-1,440 (-14.4%)
12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $91.08
$22,085
+$12,085 (+120.9%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (35 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100
● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 9
Wall Street FirmStance12M Target1Y AccuracyTrack Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity DeskHOLD$3774%A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage LeadUNDERPERFORM$8669%B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap ResearchSELL$3158%C
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring IONS)

  • ✓Walkthrough of IONS's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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IONS // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -45.20%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-11-04O $43.52H $43.52L $41.24C $41.24VOL 2.56M
RES: $43.85SUP: $38.08SMA50: $47.52SMA200: $66.10
$89.93$76.73$63.54$50.34$37.15RES $43.85SUP $38.08$41.242026-05-052026-06-222026-08-062026-09-222026-11-04
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

IONS Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 IONS Butterfly Map → + Track IONS →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
15.7%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +33.8% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on IONS today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for IONS. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for IONS today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (IONS)

Health Care Rank #898 of 1015 ⚔️ AMRX vs IONS Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (IONS vs. AMRX, AXSM, KNSA, RYTM)

Industry: Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations (489 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1015 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Ionis Pharmaceuticals Inc. (IONS) ranks #898 by composite RQD confidence (26/100, grade E) and #135 by equity capitalization ($6.85B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, AMRX leads on earnings valuation at 103.2x trailing P/E, while AMRX leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 14.1% ROIC and 36.9% gross margin. AMRX currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 71/100 (B-) compared with IONS at 26/100 (E).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
IONS ACTIVE
Ionis Pharmaceuticals Inc.
E 26/100 — 96.0% -20.9% -5.24% $6.85B Benchmark Subject
AMRX
Amneal Pharmaceuticals Inc.
B- 71/100 103.2x 36.9% 14.1% -4.97% $7.12B /amrx-vs-ions →
AXSM
Axsome Therapeutics Inc.
D- 35/100 — — -21.9% -5.83% $7.12B /axsm-vs-ions →
KNSA
Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals International plc (Class A)
B- 71/100 129.9x 88.5% 9.9% -1.56% $7.13B /knsa-vs-ions →
RYTM
Rhythm Pharmaceuticals Inc.
D- 38/100 — 89.7% -29.6% +0.94% $6.43B /rytm-vs-ions →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000874015 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Ionis Pharmaceuticals Inc. (IONS) reported GAAP revenue of $943.7M (+33.8% vs. FY2024 revenue of $705.1M , and +19.8% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$381.4M, operating cash flow of -$268.6M, and free cash flow of -$320.0M (+41.4% YoY). On the balance sheet, IONS closed FY2025 with $3.52B in total assets against $1.33B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 1.08, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $943.7M -$381.4M -$268.6M -$320.0M $3.52B $1.33B
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $705.1M -$453.9M -$500.9M -$546.2M $3.00B $1.20B
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $787.6M -$366.3M -$307.5M -$343.0M $4.06B $949.4M

3. IONS Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is IONS stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Ionis Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: IONS) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 26/100 at a spot price of $41.24 (-5.24% 1D, market cap $6.85B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 6/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 5/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 6/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 3/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 6/20. Across 1015 tracked Health Care issuers, IONS ranks #898 in composite RQD confidence.

How does IONS compare to AMRX and AXSM in the Health Care sector?

Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), IONS carries a Roarable E (26/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 96.0%, and ROIC of -20.9%. By comparison, AMRX (Amneal Pharmaceuticals Inc.) holds a B- grade (71/100 RQD, P/E 103.2x, ROIC 14.1%, cap $7.12B) and AXSM (Axsome Therapeutics Inc.) posts a D- grade (35/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -21.9%, cap $7.12B). Among the 5-stock peer group, AMRX leads on earnings multiple (103.2x) while AMRX leads on capital efficiency (14.1% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for IONS?

Per IONS's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000874015), Ionis Pharmaceuticals Inc. generated $943.7M in revenue (+33.8% YoY), -$381.4M in net income, and -$320.0M in free cash flow against $3.52B in total assets and $1.33B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is IONS trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

IONS last traded at $41.24 (-5.24% on volume of 2,559,961 shares), positioning the stock -13.22% below its 50-day simple moving average ($47.52) and -37.61% below its 200-day simple moving average ($66.10). Across its 52-week range of $41.24 to $86.74, IONS sits at the 0.0% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 36.2 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±7.4% ($38.19 to $44.29).

Direct Sub-Reports: IONS RQD Cockpit IONS 12M Forecast IONS Earnings & Move IONS Dividends & DRIP IONS Insiders & 13F IONS Whale Options IONS Profit Sankey IONS News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 26/100 (E) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

IONS — Ionis Pharmaceuticals Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Ionis Pharmaceuticals Inc. (IONS) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 26/100, corresponding to a E letter grade (Roarable Strong Sell) at a spot price of $41.24 (-5.24% 1D, market capitalization $6.85B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (6/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of -20.9%, gross margin of 96.0%, operating margin of -40.4%, and free cash flow yield of -4.34%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (5/20) + Insider Conviction (6/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (3/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (6/20): Incorporates a 1.09x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 1.08, Piotroski F-Score of 5/9, and Debt/Equity of 2.72x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Ionis Pharmaceuticals Inc. (IONS) is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Health Care sector, operating within the Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations industry. — for specific product lines, customers, or revenue-generation detail beyond the sector and industry classification.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Ionis Pharmaceuticals Inc. (IONS) reported $943.7M in annual revenue (up from $705.1M in FY2024, +33.8% YoY) and -$381.4M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($787.6M revenue, -$366.3M net income) through FY2025, IONS scaled operating cash flow to -$268.6M and free cash flow to -$320.0M, backed by $3.52B in total assets against $1.33B in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (E • RQD 26/100): Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of -4.34% and institutional whale pillar of 5/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 6/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 5/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $41.24 – $86.74 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation against -40.4% operating margins and a 1.09x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

There are no upstream or downstream links and no proprietary signals recorded for IONS. Sector and industry are Health Care and Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations. — for specific upstream dependencies, downstream customers, or sector correlation measures. Investors should note that the absence of mapped supply-chain links means second-order ripple effects cannot be assessed from the provided data.

  • Key Question #1: Can IONS sustain or expand its -40.4% operating margin and -20.9% ROIC against Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $943.7M and free cash flow of -$320.0M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $1.33B in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is IONS's 22.0x forward P/E multiple to Health Care capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.09x)?

IONS Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Ionis Pharmaceuticals Inc. (IONS) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to IONS Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

IONS Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $41.24?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON IONS 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on IONS:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
CA CashFlowKing RQD DEBATE OPENER • FCF Compounder Hunter 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $57.45 (+32.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

A BMO upgrade citing an sHTG opportunity is the only positively flagged catalyst in the news feed.

Long IONS at $43.52 targeting $57.45. A BMO upgrade citing an sHTG opportunity is the only positively flagged catalyst in the news feed.. Institutional whale score is 5/20 and the risk/reward vs. the $42.08 52-week low is skewed heavily in favor of bulls.

RetailWhale_TX 🐂 BULL

@SkepticalCFA Shorting a 5/20 institutional whale-flow stock at $43.52 is dangerous when funds are rotating into Health Care.

SK SkepticalCFA RQD DEBATE OPENER • Fundamental Contrarian 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $36.56 (-16.0%)
Spot @ $43.52

Negative operating income, negative FCF, and a 1.08 Altman Z-Score point to forensic and liquidity risk.

I respect the product at Ionis Pharmaceuticals Inc., but the stock at $43.52 is a different story. Negative operating income, negative FCF, and a 1.08 Altman Z-Score point to forensic and liquidity risk.. FCF yield is -4.34% and RQD sits at 26/100 (E) — why pay up here when you can wait for next quarter's numbers?

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