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Stock Ratings / Financials / JCAP
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Jefferson Capital Inc. (JCAP) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$20.28 +2.84% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $20.35

Jefferson Capital Inc. (JCAP) carries a Roarable Rating of C+ (Hold) with 69/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

ROARABLE C+ • HOLD / WATCH Cap $1.13B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on JCAP Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is JCAP stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
▼

As of 2026-11-03, Jefferson Capital Inc. (NASDAQ: JCAP) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 69/100 at a spot price of $20.28 (+2.84% 1D, market cap $1.13B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 19/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 6/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 19/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, JCAP ranks #138 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does JCAP compare to NCZ and BST in the Financials sector?
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Within the Financials sector (Finance Companies), JCAP carries a Roarable C+ (69/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 6.1x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 55.2%. By comparison, NCZ (Virtus Convertible & Income Fund II of) holds a D grade (44/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $1.07B) and BST (BlackRock Science and Technology Trust of) posts a D grade (49/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $1.03B). Among the 5-stock peer group, JCAP leads on earnings multiple (6.1x) while JCAP leads on capital efficiency (55.2% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for JCAP?
▼

Per JCAP's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0002046042), Jefferson Capital Inc. generated $613.3M in revenue (+41.5% YoY), $188.0M in net income, and $268.8M in free cash flow against $2.09B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $20.34 (+0.32%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-3.20% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 19/20 (A+) • 43.8% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 69/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+2.0% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 57.3% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C+
025507510069
2-of-3 Quant Analysts Bullish
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw B · Rk C
Cash (19)Whales (6)SEC (15)Macro (10)CEO (19)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+4.9% Base Target
$26 Bull$21 Base$17 Bear
📬 FREE JCAP RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for JCAP)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±5.4%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (69/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY JCAP SCORES 69/100 (C+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+19/20 pts (28% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 43.8% FCF Margin ($268.8M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+19/20 pts (28% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 86% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-3.20% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning6/20 pts (-14 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-14 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
77
Grade B+$20.54+1% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
74
Grade B+$20.75-3.4% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
72
Grade B$20.04+1.2% Next Q
Current
69
Grade C+$20.28+2% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: B+ (77) → C+ (69)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the JCAP Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 69/100 (C+) score, JCAP faces multiple-compression risk if 6.1x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-3.20% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($20.38) or 200D SMA ($19.97) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($21.28) toward Bear Floor ($16.60).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $JCAP• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “JCAP Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 69%NO 31%Trade / Inspect Odds →
RSI-14 MOMENTUMNEUTRAL RANGE
43.830 Oversold · 70 Hot
ALTMAN-Z SHIELDFORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)
3.80>3.0 Fortress Safe
PIOTROSKI F-SCOREHIGH QUALITY (7–9)
7 / 99-Pt Accounting
52-WEEK LASER RANGE53% OF RANGE
L: $16$20.28H: $24
1. Money & Cash Health● HEALTHY
Are profits real cash in the bank?

Real cash coming in backs up reported profits (steady margins and healthy balance-sheet cushion).

Factor Grade: A+RQD 19 / 20
2. Big Money & Insiders● NEUTRAL
Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Big funds and company insiders are mostly holding steady without aggressive buying or panic selling.

Factor Grade: CRQD 25 / 40
3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WATCH
SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

No major SEC filing blowups, though current interest rates and Fed liquidity call for normal position sizing.

Factor Grade: CRQD 25 / 40
MULTI-MODEL QUANT PANEL DELIBERATION

2-of-3 Quant Analysts Bullish on JCAP

Cash & Moat Bull AI
ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model
BULLISH (95)

55.2% ROIC with 42.0% gross margin and 23.49% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI
10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard
BULLISH (75)

Altman-Z 4.20 and Piotroski 7/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI
Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq
NEUTRAL (58)

25/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 10/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like JCAP
  • ✓Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.
  • ✓Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.
  • ✓Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs.
Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong
  • !Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (JCAP Tape Review)

  • ✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
  • ✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
  • ✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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JCAP // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +0.85%▲ ASCENDING TRIANGLE
2026-11-03O $19.93H $20.28L $19.72C $20.28VOL 269.9K
RES: $21.12SUP: $19.27SMA50: $20.38SMA200: $19.97
$25.07$22.47$19.88$17.29$14.70RES $21.12SUP $19.27$20.282026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

JCAP Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 JCAP Butterfly Map → + Track JCAP →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
-10.5%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +41.5% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on JCAP today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for JCAP. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for JCAP today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (JCAP)

Financials Rank #138 of 1097 ⚔️ NCZ vs JCAP Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (JCAP vs. NCZ, BST, HQH, NCV)

Industry: Finance Companies (27 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1097 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Jefferson Capital Inc. (JCAP) ranks #138 by composite RQD confidence (69/100, grade C+) and #526 by equity capitalization ($1.13B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, JCAP leads on earnings valuation at 6.1x trailing P/E, while JCAP leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 55.2% ROIC and — gross margin. JCAP currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 69/100 (C+).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
JCAP ACTIVE
Jefferson Capital Inc.
C+ 69/100 6.1x — 55.2% +2.84% $1.13B Benchmark Subject
NCZ
Virtus Convertible & Income Fund II of
D 44/100 — — — -0.07% $1.07B /ncz-vs-jcap →
BST
BlackRock Science and Technology Trust of
D 49/100 — — — -0.97% $1.03B /bst-vs-jcap →
HQH
abrdn Healthcare Investors
D+ 54/100 — — — -1.87% $1.01B /hqh-vs-jcap →
NCV
Virtus Convertible & Income Fund of
D- 43/100 — — — -1.26% $1.37B /ncv-vs-jcap →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0002046042 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Jefferson Capital Inc. (JCAP) reported GAAP revenue of $613.3M (+41.5% vs. FY2024 revenue of $433.3M , and +89.8% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $188.0M, operating cash flow of $268.8M, and free cash flow of $268.8M (+59.8% YoY). On the balance sheet, JCAP closed FY2025 with $2.09B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $613.3M $188.0M $268.8M $268.8M $2.09B —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $433.3M $128.9M $168.2M $168.2M $1.65B —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $323.1M $111.5M $120.2M $120.2M — —

3. JCAP Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is JCAP stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Jefferson Capital Inc. (NASDAQ: JCAP) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 69/100 at a spot price of $20.28 (+2.84% 1D, market cap $1.13B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 19/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 6/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 19/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, JCAP ranks #138 in composite RQD confidence.

How does JCAP compare to NCZ and BST in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Finance Companies), JCAP carries a Roarable C+ (69/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 6.1x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 55.2%. By comparison, NCZ (Virtus Convertible & Income Fund II of) holds a D grade (44/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $1.07B) and BST (BlackRock Science and Technology Trust of) posts a D grade (49/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $1.03B). Among the 5-stock peer group, JCAP leads on earnings multiple (6.1x) while JCAP leads on capital efficiency (55.2% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for JCAP?

Per JCAP's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0002046042), Jefferson Capital Inc. generated $613.3M in revenue (+41.5% YoY), $188.0M in net income, and $268.8M in free cash flow against $2.09B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is JCAP trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

JCAP last traded at $20.28 (+2.84% on volume of 208,745 shares), positioning the stock -0.49% below its 50-day simple moving average ($20.38) and +1.55% above its 200-day simple moving average ($19.97). Across its 52-week range of $15.50 to $24.44, JCAP sits at the 53.5% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 43.8 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±5.4% ($19.18 to $21.38).

Direct Sub-Reports: JCAP RQD Cockpit JCAP 12M Forecast JCAP Earnings & Move JCAP Dividends & DRIP JCAP Insiders & 13F JCAP Whale Options JCAP Profit Sankey JCAP News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 69/100 (C+) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

JCAP — Jefferson Capital Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Jefferson Capital Inc. (JCAP) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 69/100, corresponding to a C+ letter grade (Roarable Hold) at a spot price of $20.28 (+2.84% 1D, market capitalization $1.13B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (19/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 55.2%, gross margin of —, operating margin of 51.6%, and free cash flow yield of 23.49%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (6/20) + Insider Conviction (19/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (10/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (15/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Jefferson Capital Inc. (JCAP) is a NASDAQ-listed operating company in the Finance Companies industry (Financials sector) with an equity market capitalization of $1.13B. The business operates with a gross margin of 0%, an operating margin of 51.6%, and a return on invested capital (ROIC) of 55.2% (free cash flow yield of 23.49%). Within the Finance Companies peer group, investor evaluation centers on operating leverage, unit margin durability, and capital allocation efficiency across market cycles.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Jefferson Capital Inc. (JCAP) reported $613.3M in annual revenue (up from $433.3M in FY2024, +41.5% YoY) and $188.0M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($323.1M revenue, $111.5M net income) through FY2025, JCAP scaled operating cash flow to $268.8M and free cash flow to $268.8M, backed by $2.09B in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (C+ • RQD 69/100): Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 19/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 6/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $15.50 – $24.44 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Investors must weigh 6.1x trailing P/E and 3.5x EV/EBITDA against 51.6% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

— The Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph reports supply_chain as NONE with empty butterfly_links and proprietary_signals, so upstream/downstream dependencies and sector correlations cannot be mapped from the sources.

  • Key Question #1: Can JCAP sustain or expand its 51.6% operating margin and 55.2% ROIC against Finance Companies peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $613.3M and free cash flow of $268.8M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is JCAP's 5.1x forward P/E multiple to Financials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

JCAP Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Jefferson Capital Inc. (JCAP) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to JCAP Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

JCAP Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $20.28?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON JCAP 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on JCAP:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
BR BreakoutHunter RQD DEBATE OPENER • Swing & Catalyst Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $25.64 (+30.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Revenue more than doubled from $323.1M to $613.3M over FY 2023–FY 2025 with a 55.2% ROIC and a 23.49% FCF yield.

Here is why I am bullish on JCAP here at $19.72: Revenue more than doubled from $323.1M to $613.3M over FY 2023–FY 2025 with a 55.2% ROIC and a 23.49% FCF yield.. Compare JCAP's 51.6% operating margin and 55.2% ROIC against the rest of Finance Companies. As long as cash conversion holds up, dips toward $18.73 are getting bought.

ArenaChamp_24 🐂 BULL

@BreakoutHunter Agree on the RQD 69/100 quality, though with 1.0 beta I'm scaling in with half-size at $19.72 and keeping dry powder in case we test $18.34.

FA FadeTheHype RQD DEBATE OPENER • Contrarian Tape Reader 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $16.37 (-17.0%)
Spot @ $19.72

Institutional whale 13F flow scores only 8 of 20 and cash fell from $35.5M to $23.2M while debt is not reported.

Careful chasing JCAP at $19.72. Institutional whale 13F flow scores only 8 of 20 and cash fell from $35.5M to $23.2M while debt is not reported.. Gross margin is 0.0%, but operating margin is 51.6%, which shows SG&A and reinvestment are eating into bottom-line EPS. Target $16.37 on multiple compression.

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