Seeking Alpha report covering Jefferson Capital Inc. (JCAP) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Why JCAP Stock surged +2.84% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
Jefferson Capital Inc. (JCAP) carries a Roarable Rating of C+ (Hold) with 69/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief)
Is JCAP stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Jefferson Capital Inc. (NASDAQ: JCAP) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 69/100 at a spot price of $20.28 (+2.84% 1D, market cap $1.13B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 19/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 6/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 19/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, JCAP ranks #138 in composite RQD confidence.
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief)
How does JCAP compare to NCZ and BST in the Financials sector?
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Within the Financials sector (Finance Companies), JCAP carries a Roarable C+ (69/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 6.1x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 55.2%. By comparison, NCZ (Virtus Convertible & Income Fund II of) holds a D grade (44/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $1.07B) and BST (BlackRock Science and Technology Trust of) posts a D grade (49/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $1.03B). Among the 5-stock peer group, JCAP leads on earnings multiple (6.1x) while JCAP leads on capital efficiency (55.2% ROIC).
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief)
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for JCAP?
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Per JCAP's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0002046042), Jefferson Capital Inc. generated $613.3M in revenue (+41.5% YoY), $188.0M in net income, and $268.8M in free cash flow against $2.09B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 43.8% FCF Margin ($268.8M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin
SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 86% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-3.20% YoY Shares)
Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-14 pts vs max)
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the JCAP Bull Thesis Could Fail
Even with a 69/100 (C+) score, JCAP faces multiple-compression risk if 6.1x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.
Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.
Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-3.20% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.
Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($20.38) or 200D SMA ($19.97) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($21.28) toward Bear Floor ($16.60).
Why JCAP Stock surged +2.84% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
Jefferson Capital Inc. (JCAP) surged +2.84% to $20.28, trading at 53% of its 52-week range ($15.5 – $24.44). Solid steady margins (55% return on capital), mixed timing at 6x P/E—hold if owned, no rush to chase.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 53% of its 52-week range ($15.5 – $24.44) with RSI-14 at 43.8 (NEUTRAL RANGE).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±5.4% around $20.28 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable C+ (Hold) backed by 52% gross margin and $268.8M annual free cash flow.
Moomoo report covering Jefferson Capital Inc. (JCAP) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Yahoo Finance report covering Jefferson Capital Inc. (JCAP) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
TradingKey report covering Jefferson Capital Inc. (JCAP) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Yahoo! Finance Canada report covering Jefferson Capital Inc. (JCAP) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Yahoo! Finance Canada report covering Jefferson Capital Inc. (JCAP) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Community Financial (CBU) delivered earnings and revenue surprises of +1.68% and +0.43%, respectively, for the quarter ended September 2026. Do the numbers hold clues to what lies ahead for the stock?
Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (JCAP Tape Review)
- ✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
- ✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
- ✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts
JCAP Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
vs. +41.5% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on JCAP today. View full Setup Ledger →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for JCAP. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (JCAP)
1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (JCAP vs. NCZ, BST, HQH, NCV)
Industry: Finance Companies (27 Tracked Issuers)Across 1097 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Jefferson Capital Inc. (JCAP) ranks #138 by composite RQD confidence (69/100, grade C+) and #526 by equity capitalization ($1.13B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, JCAP leads on earnings valuation at 6.1x trailing P/E, while JCAP leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 55.2% ROIC and — gross margin. JCAP currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 69/100 (C+).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JCAP
ACTIVE
Jefferson Capital Inc. | C+ | 69/100 | 6.1x | — | 55.2% | +2.84% | $1.13B | Benchmark Subject |
| NCZ Virtus Convertible & Income Fund II of | D | 44/100 | — | — | — | -0.07% | $1.07B | /ncz-vs-jcap → |
| BST BlackRock Science and Technology Trust of | D | 49/100 | — | — | — | -0.97% | $1.03B | /bst-vs-jcap → |
| HQH abrdn Healthcare Investors | D+ | 54/100 | — | — | — | -1.87% | $1.01B | /hqh-vs-jcap → |
| NCV Virtus Convertible & Income Fund of | D- | 43/100 | — | — | — | -1.26% | $1.37B | /ncv-vs-jcap → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0002046042 ↗In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Jefferson Capital Inc. (JCAP) reported GAAP revenue of $613.3M (+41.5% vs. FY2024 revenue of $433.3M , and +89.8% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $188.0M, operating cash flow of $268.8M, and free cash flow of $268.8M (+59.8% YoY). On the balance sheet, JCAP closed FY2025 with $2.09B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $613.3M | $188.0M | $268.8M | $268.8M | $2.09B | — |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-31 | $433.3M | $128.9M | $168.2M | $168.2M | $1.65B | — |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-12-31 | $323.1M | $111.5M | $120.2M | $120.2M | — | — |
3. JCAP Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs JCAP stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-03, Jefferson Capital Inc. (NASDAQ: JCAP) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 69/100 at a spot price of $20.28 (+2.84% 1D, market cap $1.13B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 19/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 6/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 19/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, JCAP ranks #138 in composite RQD confidence.
How does JCAP compare to NCZ and BST in the Financials sector?
Within the Financials sector (Finance Companies), JCAP carries a Roarable C+ (69/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 6.1x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 55.2%. By comparison, NCZ (Virtus Convertible & Income Fund II of) holds a D grade (44/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $1.07B) and BST (BlackRock Science and Technology Trust of) posts a D grade (49/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $1.03B). Among the 5-stock peer group, JCAP leads on earnings multiple (6.1x) while JCAP leads on capital efficiency (55.2% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for JCAP?
Per JCAP's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0002046042), Jefferson Capital Inc. generated $613.3M in revenue (+41.5% YoY), $188.0M in net income, and $268.8M in free cash flow against $2.09B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is JCAP trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
JCAP last traded at $20.28 (+2.84% on volume of 208,745 shares), positioning the stock -0.49% below its 50-day simple moving average ($20.38) and +1.55% above its 200-day simple moving average ($19.97). Across its 52-week range of $15.50 to $24.44, JCAP sits at the 53.5% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 43.8 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±5.4% ($19.18 to $21.38).
JCAP — Jefferson Capital Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor
1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor
Jefferson Capital Inc. (JCAP) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 69/100, corresponding to a C+ letter grade (Roarable Hold) at a spot price of $20.28 (+2.84% 1D, market capitalization $1.13B).
- Fundamental Cash Engine (19/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 55.2%, gross margin of —, operating margin of 51.6%, and free cash flow yield of 23.49%.
- Whale 13F & Options Flow (6/20) + Insider Conviction (19/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
- Macro Regime Fit (10/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (15/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.
2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory
Jefferson Capital Inc. (JCAP) is a NASDAQ-listed operating company in the Finance Companies industry (Financials sector) with an equity market capitalization of $1.13B. The business operates with a gross margin of 0%, an operating margin of 51.6%, and a return on invested capital (ROIC) of 55.2% (free cash flow yield of 23.49%). Within the Finance Companies peer group, investor evaluation centers on operating leverage, unit margin durability, and capital allocation efficiency across market cycles.
In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Jefferson Capital Inc. (JCAP) reported $613.3M in annual revenue (up from $433.3M in FY2024, +41.5% YoY) and $188.0M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($323.1M revenue, $111.5M net income) through FY2025, JCAP scaled operating cash flow to $268.8M and free cash flow to $268.8M, backed by $2.09B in total assets against $0 in total debt.
3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff
- 🐂 Primary Bull Case (C+ • RQD 69/100): Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 19/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 6/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $15.50 – $24.44 52-week range.
- 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Investors must weigh 6.1x trailing P/E and 3.5x EV/EBITDA against 51.6% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.
4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch
— The Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph reports supply_chain as NONE with empty butterfly_links and proprietary_signals, so upstream/downstream dependencies and sector correlations cannot be mapped from the sources.
- Key Question #1: Can JCAP sustain or expand its 51.6% operating margin and 55.2% ROIC against Finance Companies peers over the next 4 quarters?
- Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $613.3M and free cash flow of $268.8M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
- Key Question #3: How sensitive is JCAP's 5.1x forward P/E multiple to Financials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?
JCAP Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire
Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Jefferson Capital Inc. (JCAP) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below
Seeking Alpha report covering Jefferson Capital Inc. (JCAP) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
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Yahoo! Finance Canada report covering Jefferson Capital Inc. (JCAP) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Community Financial (CBU) delivered earnings and revenue surprises of +1.68% and +0.43%, respectively, for the quarter ended September 2026. Do the numbers hold clues to what lies ahead for the stock?
JCAP Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $20.28?
Revenue more than doubled from $323.1M to $613.3M over FY 2023–FY 2025 with a 55.2% ROIC and a 23.49% FCF yield.
Here is why I am bullish on JCAP here at $19.72: Revenue more than doubled from $323.1M to $613.3M over FY 2023–FY 2025 with a 55.2% ROIC and a 23.49% FCF yield.. Compare JCAP's 51.6% operating margin and 55.2% ROIC against the rest of Finance Companies. As long as cash conversion holds up, dips toward $18.73 are getting bought.
@BreakoutHunter Agree on the RQD 69/100 quality, though with 1.0 beta I'm scaling in with half-size at $19.72 and keeping dry powder in case we test $18.34.
Institutional whale 13F flow scores only 8 of 20 and cash fell from $35.5M to $23.2M while debt is not reported.
Careful chasing JCAP at $19.72. Institutional whale 13F flow scores only 8 of 20 and cash fell from $35.5M to $23.2M while debt is not reported.. Gross margin is 0.0%, but operating margin is 51.6%, which shows SG&A and reinvestment are eating into bottom-line EPS. Target $16.37 on multiple compression.