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Joby Aviation Inc. (JOBY) Options Positioning, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps

$4.81 -1.84% NYSE β€’ Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $4.78

Joby Aviation Inc. (JOBY) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 38/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D- β€’ RED ALERT Cap $4.87B
πŸ“€ Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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πŸ€– Mara Quenwick β€’ AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is JOBY stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
β–Ό

As of 2026-11-03, Joby Aviation Inc. (NYSE: JOBY) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 38/100 at a spot price of $4.81 (-1.84% 1D, market cap $4.87B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 9/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 5/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 14/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 4/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 6/20. Across 486 tracked Industrials issuers, JOBY ranks #350 in composite RQD confidence.

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Ellis Vennor β€’ AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does JOBY compare to BETA and AIR in the Industrials sector?
β–Ό

Within the Industrials sector (Aerospace), JOBY carries a Roarable D- (38/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of β€”, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, BETA (Beta Technologies Inc. (Class A)) holds a D- grade (42/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $4.69B) and AIR (AAR Corp.) posts a D grade (46/100 RQD, P/E 22.4x, ROIC 12.0%, cap $4.03B). Among the 5-stock peer group, AIR leads on earnings multiple (22.4x) while AIR leads on capital efficiency (12.0% ROIC).

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Gideon Ashmere β€’ AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for JOBY?
β–Ό

Per JOBY's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001819848), Joby Aviation Inc. generated $53.4M in revenue (+39183.1% YoY), -$929.8M in net income, and -$563.8M in free cash flow against $1.80B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Industrials with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
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INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
πŸ›‘οΈ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $4.78 (-0.52%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+1.64% YoY Shares)βš™οΈ Cash Engine: 9/20 (D) β€’ 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit β†’
πŸ“Š Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (38/100 Β· D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-7.8% avg 90D alpha vs SPY β€’ 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record β†’
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT β€’ D-
025507510038
2-of-3 Quant Analysts Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) β€” not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw E Β· Rk D
Cash (9)Whales (5)SEC (14)Macro (4)CEO (6)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-8.9% Base Target
$18 Bull$4 Base$3 Bear
πŸ“¬ FREE JOBY RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: β€” (No Active Options Snapshot on file for JOBY)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: Β±10.2%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (38/100 Composite)
πŸ” WHY JOBY SCORES 38/100 (D-) β€” TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
β–² #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+14/20 pts (37% of score)

Altman Z-Score 5.32 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) β€’ Piotroski F-Score 5/9

β–² #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+9/20 pts (24% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 0% FCF Margin ($0 FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

β–Ό #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (39.2) create a -16 pt regime headwind

πŸ“ˆ PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 β†’ Q2 β†’ Q3 β†’ Current
Q1 (-3Q)
30
Grade E$4.61+0.7% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
33
Grade E$4.64+9.5% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
35
Grade E$5.08-5.3% Next Q
Current
38
Grade D-$4.81-7.8% Hist 90D Ξ±
Trajectory: E (30) β†’ D- (38)Full Audit β†’
βš”οΈ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

βš”οΈ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a JOBY Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk β†’

While JOBY currently carries a cautious 38/100 (D-) rating due to Macro Regime Fit (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

πŸš€ Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Industrials with deep daily trading liquidity.

πŸš€ Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($5.79) and Max Pain ($5.05) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $17.96.

πŸš€ Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+1.64% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $JOBYβ€’ $2.4M Crowd Pool β€’ Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: β€œJOBY Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 38%NO 62%Trade / Inspect Odds β†’
CALL VS. PUT WHALE SHARE
β€” (No Active Options Snapshot)
Put/Call Ratio: β€” (No Active Options Snapshot)
MAX-PAIN EXPIRATION MAGNET
β€” (No Active Options Snapshot)
No active options chain max-pain snapshot on file
HISTORICAL 20D VOLATILITY SWING
Β±10.2%
Derived from 20D OHLCV bars (No Active Options Snapshot)

Active Strike Call vs. Put Concentration Ladder (JOBY)

β€” (No Active Options Snapshot) β€” No unusual CBOE strike concentration anomalies recorded in the current database snapshot for JOBY.

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Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring JOBY)

  • βœ“Walkthrough of JOBY's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • βœ“3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
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JOBY // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -45.71%⚑ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-11-03O $5.08H $5.08L $4.81C $4.81VOL 16.26M
RES: $4.95SUP: $3.88SMA50: $5.79SMA200: $8.48
$14.10$11.48$8.86$6.24$3.62RES $4.95SUP $3.88$4.812026-05-042026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

JOBY Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

πŸ¦‹ JOBY Butterfly Map β†’ + Track JOBY β†’
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
11.2%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +39183.1% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on JOBY today. View full Setup Ledger β†’

πŸ¦‹ Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph β†’

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for JOBY. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for JOBY today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk β†’
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT β€’ SEC EDGAR XBRL Γ— RQD PEER BENCHMARK

πŸ“Š Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (JOBY)

Industrials Rank #350 of 486 βš”οΈ BETA vs JOBY Full Matrix β†’

1. Head-to-Head Industrials Peer Comparison (JOBY vs. BETA, AIR, AVAV, ACHR)

Industry: Aerospace (31 Tracked Issuers)

Across 486 tracked Industrials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Joby Aviation Inc. (JOBY) ranks #350 by composite RQD confidence (38/100, grade D-) and #146 by equity capitalization ($4.87B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, AIR leads on earnings valuation at 22.4x trailing P/E, while AIR leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 12.0% ROIC and 18.8% gross margin. AIR currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 46/100 (D) compared with JOBY at 38/100 (D-).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
JOBY ACTIVE
Joby Aviation Inc.
D- 38/100 β€” β€” -35.0% -1.84% $4.87B Benchmark Subject
BETA
Beta Technologies Inc. (Class A)
D- 42/100 β€” 72.2% -35.0% +1.65% $4.69B /beta-vs-joby β†’
AIR
AAR Corp.
D 46/100 22.4x 18.8% 12.0% +5.36% $4.03B /air-vs-joby β†’
AVAV
AeroVironment Inc.
E 27/100 β€” 25.3% -7.6% -2.40% $6.41B /avav-vs-joby β†’
ACHR
Archer Aviation Inc.
E 32/100 β€” 33.3% -35.0% -0.71% $3.27B /achr-vs-joby β†’

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K β€’ FILED 2025-12-31 β€’ CIK 0001819848 β†—

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Joby Aviation Inc. (JOBY) reported GAAP revenue of $53.4M (+39183.1% vs. FY2024 revenue of $136.0K , and +5076.8% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$929.8M, operating cash flow of -$509.9M, and free cash flow of -$563.8M (-18.2% YoY). On the balance sheet, JOBY closed FY2025 with $1.80B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 5.32, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $53.4M -$929.8M -$509.9M -$563.8M $1.80B $0
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $136.0K -$608.0M -$436.3M -$476.9M $1.20B $131.0M
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $1.0M -$513.0M -$313.8M -$313.9M $2.78B $649.8M

3. JOBY Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

βœ“ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is JOBY stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Joby Aviation Inc. (NYSE: JOBY) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 38/100 at a spot price of $4.81 (-1.84% 1D, market cap $4.87B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 9/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 5/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 14/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 4/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 6/20. Across 486 tracked Industrials issuers, JOBY ranks #350 in composite RQD confidence.

How does JOBY compare to BETA and AIR in the Industrials sector?

Within the Industrials sector (Aerospace), JOBY carries a Roarable D- (38/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of β€”, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, BETA (Beta Technologies Inc. (Class A)) holds a D- grade (42/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $4.69B) and AIR (AAR Corp.) posts a D grade (46/100 RQD, P/E 22.4x, ROIC 12.0%, cap $4.03B). Among the 5-stock peer group, AIR leads on earnings multiple (22.4x) while AIR leads on capital efficiency (12.0% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for JOBY?

Per JOBY's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001819848), Joby Aviation Inc. generated $53.4M in revenue (+39183.1% YoY), -$929.8M in net income, and -$563.8M in free cash flow against $1.80B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Industrials with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is JOBY trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

JOBY last traded at $4.81 (-1.84% on volume of 15,869,054 shares), positioning the stock -16.93% below its 50-day simple moving average ($5.79) and -43.28% below its 200-day simple moving average ($8.48). Across its 52-week range of $4.43 to $17.10, JOBY sits at the 3.0% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 39.2 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of Β±10.2% ($4.32 to $5.30).

Direct Sub-Reports: JOBY RQD Cockpit JOBY 12M Forecast JOBY Earnings & Move JOBY Dividends & DRIP JOBY Insiders & 13F JOBY Whale Options JOBY Profit Sankey JOBY News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF β€’ RQD 38/100 (D-) βœ“ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

JOBY β€” Joby Aviation Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Joby Aviation Inc. (JOBY) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 38/100, corresponding to a D- letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $4.81 (-1.84% 1D, market capitalization $4.87B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (9/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of -35.0%, gross margin of β€”, operating margin of -60.0%, and free cash flow yield of -11.17%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (5/20) + Insider Conviction (6/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (4/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (14/20): Incorporates a 0.88x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 5.32, Piotroski F-Score of 5/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.00x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Joby Aviation Inc. Is a NYSE-listed issuer in the Industrials sector, Aerospace industry. Revenue appears in the SEC financials, rising from $1.0M (FY 2023) to $0.1M (FY 2024) to $53.4M (FY 2025).

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Joby Aviation Inc. (JOBY) reported $53.4M in annual revenue (up from $136.0K in FY2024, +39183.1% YoY) and -$929.8M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($1.0M revenue, -$513.0M net income) through FY2025, JOBY scaled operating cash flow to -$509.9M and free cash flow to -$563.8M, backed by $1.80B in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • πŸ‚ Primary Bull Case (D- β€’ RQD 38/100): Established market leader in Industrials with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of -11.17% and institutional whale pillar of 5/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 9/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 5/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $4.43 – $17.10 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation against -60.0% operating margins and a 0.88x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

β€” The Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph records no upstream or downstream links and no proprietary signals, so upstream dependencies, sector correlations, and second-order bottlenecks cannot be identified from the source data.

  • Key Question #1: Can JOBY sustain or expand its -60.0% operating margin and -35.0% ROIC against Aerospace peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $53.4M and free cash flow of -$563.8M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is JOBY's 18.0x forward P/E multiple to Industrials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 0.88x)?

JOBY Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Joby Aviation Inc. (JOBY) β€’ Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

πŸ’¬ Jump to JOBY Debate Forum (3) ↓
πŸ”₯ THE ROAR PIT β€’ LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

JOBY Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board β€” What's Your Call at $4.81?

πŸ‚ 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON JOBY 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on JOBY:
πŸ’‘ Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
CA CashFlowKing RQD DEBATE OPENER β€’ FCF Compounder Hunter πŸ‚ BULLISH 🎯 Target: $5.88 (+20.0%)
πŸ“Œ Pinned Debate

Balance sheet is comparatively sturdy with an Altman Z-Score of 5.32, Piotroski F-Score of 5/9, Debt/Equity of 0.5, and reported debt f

Long JOBY at $4.90 targeting $5.88. Balance sheet is comparatively sturdy with an Altman Z-Score of 5.32, Piotroski F-Score of 5/9, Debt/Equity of 0.5, and reported debt falling to $0.0M in FY 2025.. Institutional whale score is 5/20 and the risk/reward vs. the $4.43 52-week low is skewed heavily in favor of bulls.

SectorRotator πŸ‚ BULL

@RedlineAuditor Fair point on 18.0x forward P/E, but you're ignoring the forward operating leverage in Aerospace. If gross margin (0.0%) holds, EPS grows into the multiple faster than bears think.

RE RedlineAuditor RQD DEBATE OPENER β€’ Accounting Quality Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $3.97 (-19.0%)
Spot @ $4.90

Operations remain deeply unprofitable with ROIC of -35%, FCF yield of -11.17%, and FY 2025 operating loss of -$719.6M against revenue o

Here is the bear case nobody on the bull side wants to address on JOBY: Operations remain deeply unprofitable with ROIC of -35%, FCF yield of -11.17%, and FY 2025 operating loss of -$719.6M against revenue of $53.4M.. At 18.0x forward P/E, even a small guidance miss in Aerospace triggers a 12-15% air pocket.

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