Why JOE Stock dropped -2.48% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

$70.02 -2.48% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $69.88

St. Joe Company (JOE) earns a Roarable Rating of B+ (Buy) with 76/100 RQD Confidence. High-quality cash engine (43% profit margin, 18% return on capital) with steady institutional support. The company’s underlying cash engine and institutional positioning keep the composite score in the Green Buy zone.

ROARABLE B+ • BUY Cap $4.06B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on JOE Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is JOE stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
▼

As of 2026-11-02, St. Joe Company (NYSE: JOE) is rated B+ (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 76/100 at a spot price of $70.02 (-2.48% 1D, market cap $4.06B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 18/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 15/20, Executive Insider Alignment 16/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20. Across 51 tracked Real Estate issuers, JOE ranks #4 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does JOE compare to IRS and AXR in the Real Estate sector?
▼

Within the Real Estate sector (Homebuilding), JOE carries a Roarable B+ (76/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 35.1x, gross margin of 43.1%, and ROIC of 18.1%. By comparison, IRS (IRSA Inversiones Y Representaciones S.A. Global )) holds a D grade (50/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $1.24B) and AXR (AMREP Corporation) posts a C grade (65/100 RQD, P/E 10.8x, ROIC 11.0%, cap $112.4M). Among the 5-stock peer group, MTH leads on earnings multiple (9.3x) while JOE leads on capital efficiency (18.1% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for JOE?
▼

Per JOE's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000745308), St. Joe Company generated $513.2M in revenue (+27.4% YoY), $115.6M in net income, and $186.6M in free cash flow against $1.52B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (43% profit margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $69.87 (-0.21%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 18/20 (A) • 36.4% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 76/100 (B+) historically ranked in the Top 11% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+7.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 70.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERBUY • B+
025507510076
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw B+ · Rk B-
Cash (18)Whales (15)SEC (16)Macro (12)CEO (15)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+8.1% Base Target
$89 Bull$76 Base$57 Bear
📬 FREE JOE RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for JOE)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±5.8%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (76/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY JOE SCORES 76/100 (B+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+18/20 pts (24% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 36.4% FCF Margin ($186.6M FCF) & 43.1% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+16/20 pts (21% of score)

Altman Z-Score 4.43 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 7/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit12/20 pts (-8 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (64.7) create a -8 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
68
Grade B-$65.99+2.3% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
71
Grade B$67.52+0.9% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
73
Grade B$68.11+2.8% Next Q
Current
76
Grade B+$70.02+7.6% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: B- (68) → B+ (76)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the JOE Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 76/100 (B+) score, JOE faces multiple-compression risk if 35.1x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 40.6% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($66.56) or 200D SMA ($66.03) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($75.69) toward Bear Floor ($57.42).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $JOE• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “JOE Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →

Why JOE Stock dropped -2.48% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

St. Joe Company (JOE) dropped -2.48% to $70.02, trading at 82% of its 52-week range ($53.99 – $73.54). High-quality cash engine (43% profit margin, 18% return on capital) with steady institutional support.

  • ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 82% of its 52-week range ($53.99 – $73.54) with RSI-14 at 64.7 (BULLISH MOMENTUM).
  • ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±5.8% around $70.02 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
  • ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable B+ (Buy) backed by 43.1% gross margin and $186.6M annual free cash flow.
Live JOE Headlines & Catalysts
CATALYSTYahoo • 1d ago
Does Dividend Hike Change The Bull Case For St. Joe (JOE)?

St. Joe reported mixed third quarter 2026 results, with modestly higher sales but lower revenue and net income, alongside record Hospitality segment performance and a 13% cash dividend increase to US$0.18 per share appro

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (JOE Tape Review)

  • ✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
  • ✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
  • ✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?
JOE // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +7.43%▲ ASCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-02O $68.13H $71.80L $68.13C $70.02VOL 311.2K
RES: $72.88SUP: $64.96SMA50: $66.56SMA200: $66.03
$73.78$69.67$65.56$61.45$57.33RES $72.88SUP $64.96$70.022026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-172026-11-02
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

JOE Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
27.1%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +27.4% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on JOE today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for JOE. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for JOE today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (JOE)

Real Estate Rank #4 of 51 ⚔️ IRS vs JOE Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Real Estate Peer Comparison (JOE vs. IRS, AXR, MTH, CVCO)

Industry: Homebuilding (31 Tracked Issuers)

Across 51 tracked Real Estate securities in the Roarable RQD universe, St. Joe Company (JOE) ranks #4 by composite RQD confidence (76/100, grade B+) and #8 by equity capitalization ($4.06B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, MTH leads on earnings valuation at 9.3x trailing P/E, while JOE leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 18.1% ROIC and 43.1% gross margin. JOE currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 76/100 (B+).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
JOE ACTIVE
St. Joe Company
B+ 76/100 35.1x 43.1% 18.1% -2.48% $4.06B Benchmark Subject
IRS
IRSA Inversiones Y Representaciones S.A. Global )
D 50/100 — — — -2.99% $1.24B /irs-vs-joe →
AXR
AMREP Corporation
C 65/100 10.8x — 11.0% -1.14% $112.4M /axr-vs-joe →
MTH
Meritage Homes Corporation
C- 59/100 9.3x — 8.0% -0.03% $4.20B /mth-vs-joe →
CVCO
Cavco Industries Inc.
B- 70/100 22.0x 23.5% 17.6% +13.11% $4.21B /cvco-vs-joe →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000745308

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), St. Joe Company (JOE) reported GAAP revenue of $513.2M (+27.4% vs. FY2024 revenue of $402.7M , and +31.8% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $115.6M, operating cash flow of $190.7M, and free cash flow of $186.6M (+86.2% YoY). On the balance sheet, JOE closed FY2025 with $1.52B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 4.43, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $513.2M $115.6M $190.7M $186.6M $1.52B —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $402.7M $74.2M $108.0M $100.2M $1.54B —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $389.3M $77.7M $103.8M $103.8M — —

3. JOE Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is JOE stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-02, St. Joe Company (NYSE: JOE) is rated B+ (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 76/100 at a spot price of $70.02 (-2.48% 1D, market cap $4.06B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 18/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 15/20, Executive Insider Alignment 16/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20. Across 51 tracked Real Estate issuers, JOE ranks #4 in composite RQD confidence.

How does JOE compare to IRS and AXR in the Real Estate sector?

Within the Real Estate sector (Homebuilding), JOE carries a Roarable B+ (76/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 35.1x, gross margin of 43.1%, and ROIC of 18.1%. By comparison, IRS (IRSA Inversiones Y Representaciones S.A. Global )) holds a D grade (50/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $1.24B) and AXR (AMREP Corporation) posts a C grade (65/100 RQD, P/E 10.8x, ROIC 11.0%, cap $112.4M). Among the 5-stock peer group, MTH leads on earnings multiple (9.3x) while JOE leads on capital efficiency (18.1% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for JOE?

Per JOE's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000745308), St. Joe Company generated $513.2M in revenue (+27.4% YoY), $115.6M in net income, and $186.6M in free cash flow against $1.52B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (43% profit margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is JOE trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

JOE last traded at $70.02 (-2.48% on volume of 372,324 shares), positioning the stock +5.20% above its 50-day simple moving average ($66.56) and +6.04% above its 200-day simple moving average ($66.03). Across its 52-week range of $53.99 to $73.54, JOE sits at the 82.0% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 64.7 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±5.8% ($65.96 to $74.08).

JOE Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Why is JOE stock moving today?

Why JOE Stock dropped -2.48% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. High-quality cash engine (43% profit margin, 18% return on capital) with steady institutional support.

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 76/100 (B+) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

JOE — St. Joe Company: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T15:22:23Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, JOE scores 76 out of 100 (grade B+), labeled "Roarable Buy — Very Good Cash & Smart-Money Inflow." The five pillars are:

  • Fundamental Cash Engine: 18 / 20. Per the Roarable RQD rating, this reflects ROIC of 18.1% and an FCF yield of 4.6%. This is the strongest pillar and suggests the business converts capital into cash at a healthy rate. The tradeoff is that the stock's valuation multiples (see Snapshot) are elevated relative to the cash yield.
  • Whale 13F Flow: 15 / 20. Per the Roarable RQD rating, this pillar covers institutional accumulation and options positioning. The score indicates moderate-to-positive institutional interest, but the underlying 13F holder detail is not available in source data.
  • Insider Conviction: 15 / 20. Per the Roarable RQD rating, this pillar covers SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow. The score indicates moderate insider/congressional signal; the individual transactions are not itemized in the source data.
  • Macro Regime Fit: 12 / 20. Per the Roarable RQD rating, beta is 1.0 with sector sensitivity noted. This is the weakest pillar, implying the stock moves roughly in line with the market and carries sector-level macro exposure without a clear defensive offset.
  • Forensic Balance Sheet: 16 / 20. Per the Roarable RQD rating, Altman Z is 4.43, Piotroski F is 7/9, and Debt/Equity is 0.5. These point to a financially sound balance sheet with low leverage.

For a prospective investor evaluating the stock today, the key takeaways are: the cash-generation and balance-sheet pillars are the main support for the rating; the macro-fit pillar is the main drag; and the valuation (P/E TTM of 35.1 versus forward P/E of 29.5) implies that a good deal of expected earnings growth is already priced in. Upside depends on the company sustaining its cash conversion while the multiple holds; downside risk comes from multiple compression if earnings fail to keep pace. This is educational analysis, not personalized financial advice.

Snapshot

PriceMarket CapP/E (TTM)Forward P/EEV/EBITDAEPS (TTM)Dividend YieldBeta52-Wk RangeROIC %
71.8$4.06B35.129.526.22.050.83%1.0$53.99 - $73.5418.1%

Business

St. Joe Company (JOE) is a NYSE-listed issuer in the Real Estate sector, operating in the Homebuilding industry, per the company profile. Per the company profile, the market capitalization is $4.1B. Per the SEC financials, the company reports revenue, operating income, and free cash flow across FY 2023–FY 2025. Not available in source data: a detailed description of specific products, customer segments, or revenue-mix breakdown.

Financial Trend

PeriodRevenueOperating IncomeNet IncomeEPSFCFCashDebt
FY 2025$513.2M$146.2M$115.6MN/A$186.6M$129.6MN/A
FY 2024$402.7M$95.6M$74.2MN/A$100.2M$88.8MN/A
FY 2023$389.3M$90.7M$77.7MN/A$103.8MN/AN/A

Per the SEC financials, revenue grew from $389.3M in FY 2023 to $513.2M in FY 2025, and FCF rose from $103.8M to $186.6M over the same span. Per the market data, gross margin is 43.1%, operating margin 28.5%, and net margin 22.5%, with ROIC at 18.1%. Per the Roarable RQD rating, the Altman Z-Score is 4.43 and the Piotroski F-Score is 7/9, with Debt/Equity of 0.5, indicating a strong balance-sheet posture. Net income in FY 2023 ($77.7M) was higher than in FY 2024 ($74.2M) despite lower revenue, a pattern the source data does not explain.

Butterfly Effect: 2nd-Order Supply-Chain & Sector Ripples

Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, the supply chain is recorded as "NONE," with no butterfly links. Not available in source data: upstream suppliers, downstream customers, or sector correlations. A prospective investor should note that the homebuilding exposure implied by the industry classification is not mapped to any specific counterparties in the source data. The most relevant 2nd-order watch item in the available news is the Florida custom-home plot offering, which points to land-and-development activity, but the source data does not quantify its impact or link it to a supply chain.

Open Questions

  • What is the full Q3 2026 revenue and earnings detail, and how does it compare to the FY 2025 run-rate?
  • What drove the FY 2023 net income ($77.7M) to exceed FY 2024 ($74.2M) despite lower revenue?
  • Which specific institutions and insiders are driving the whale and insider pillar scores?
  • What is the supply-chain mapping for the homebuilding and land-development business, given the Butterfly graph is empty?
  • What is the company's debt, EPS, and cash position for FY 2024 and FY 2025, which are missing from the financials?

JOE Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for St. Joe Company (JOE) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to JOE Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

JOE Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $70.02?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON JOE 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on JOE:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $84.72 (+18.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is JOE (B+ • RQD 76/100) a Buy at $71.80?

Welcome to the JOE (St. Joe Company) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 76/100 (Roarable Buy — Very Good Cash & Smart-Money Inflow) in Homebuilding. Bulls point to capital efficiency (18.1% ROIC), while bears focus on valuation multiple compression (35.1x trailing P/E). Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

RI RiskArb_Desk Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $57.44 (-20.0%)
Spot @ $71.80

Pump the brakes on JOE — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on JOE, but look at what you are paying: 35.1x trailing P/E with 43.1% gross margins. Unless St. Joe Company expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

DE DeltaGamma_99 Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $91.90 (+28.0%)
Spot @ $71.80

JOE cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on JOE, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Homebuilding and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $71.80 (52-wk range $53.99 - $73.54), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.

LIVE TAPE SPY $755.72 -0.38% QQQ $690.49 -1.44% DIA $517.13 -0.37% IWM $279.33 +0.96% NVDA $204.64 -4.22% AAPL $344.63 -1.23% MSFT $521.91 -1.55% TSLA $399.81 -0.86% PLTR $184.11 -6.27% SOFI $16.76 -4.83% IBIT $43.36 -0.94% GLD $355.78 -1.34%