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Stock Ratings / Financials / KEY / earnings
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KeyCorp (KEY) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±4% Move

$21.49 +1.75% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $21.52

KeyCorp (KEY) carries a Roarable Rating of C (Hold) with 64/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

ROARABLE C • HOLD / WATCH Cap $22.54B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on KEY Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is KEY stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, KeyCorp (NYSE: KEY) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 64/100 at a spot price of $21.49 (+1.75% 1D, market cap $22.54B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 13/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 15/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, KEY ranks #259 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does KEY compare to RF and FCNCA in the Financials sector?
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Within the Financials sector (Major Banks), KEY carries a Roarable C (64/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 12.5x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 2.6%. By comparison, RF (Regions Financial Corporation) holds a C- grade (61/100 RQD, P/E 11.4x, ROIC 0.1%, cap $24.34B) and FCNCA (First Citizens BancShares Inc.) posts a C+ grade (69/100 RQD, P/E 12.2x, ROIC 2.6%, cap $26.57B). Among the 5-stock peer group, RF leads on earnings multiple (11.4x) while KEY leads on capital efficiency (2.6% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for KEY?
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Per KEY's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000091576), KeyCorp generated $1.75B in revenue (+6.5% YoY), $1.83B in net income, and $2.13B in free cash flow against $184.38B in total assets and $73.80B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $21.52 (+0.13%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 13/20 (C) • 121.7% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 64/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 55.2% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C
025507510064
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C+ · Rk D+
Cash (13)Whales (13)SEC (15)Macro (8)CEO (15)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+2.7% Base Target
$26 Bull$22 Base$17 Bear
📬 FREE KEY RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for KEY)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±4%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (64/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY KEY SCORES 64/100 (C) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+15/20 pts (23% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 8/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+15/20 pts (23% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 75% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit8/20 pts (-12 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (54) create a -12 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
56
Grade C$19.79+6.3% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
59
Grade C$21.03+0.8% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
61
Grade C$21.20+1.4% Next Q
Current
64
Grade C$21.49+1.1% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C (56) → C (64)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the KEY Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 64/100 (C) score, KEY faces multiple-compression risk if 12.5x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($20.91) or 200D SMA ($21.56) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($22.07) toward Bear Floor ($17.21).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $KEY• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “KEY Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 64%NO 36%Trade / Inspect Odds →
NEXT EST. WINDOW: Dec 30, 2026 (~56 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±4% Swing Band

±$0.86 Expected Swing
$20.63 (-4%)Spot $21.49$22.35 (+4%)
MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

KEY Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 64/100

Trailing EPS: $1.71 • YoY Revenue Growth: 6.5%

Model Bullish Setup (64/100)Model Risk Weight (36/100)
Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).
LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

PeriodFiledRevenueNet ProfitFree Cash FlowGross Margin
FY 20252025-12-31$1.75B$1.83B$2.13B52%
FY 20242024-12-31$1.64B-$161.0M$590.1M52%
FY 20232023-12-31$1.44B$967.0M$2.84B52%
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher + Options & Swing Structure Desk

Whale Flow & Momentum Playbook: Evaluating KEY & AI Leaders Without Chasing Tops

  • ✓Institutional whale strikes & implied earnings move audit on KEY
  • ✓How disciplined traders manage risk using pre-published trigger & invalidation levels
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on tracked leaders
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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KEY // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -0.78%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-11-03O $21.49H $21.49L $21.12C $21.49VOL 18.72M
RES: $21.57SUP: $18.30SMA50: $20.91SMA200: $21.56
$24.39$23.05$21.71$20.37$19.03RES $21.57SUP $18.30$21.492026-05-042026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

KEY Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 KEY Butterfly Map → + Track KEY →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
3.3%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.5% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on KEY today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for KEY. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for KEY today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (KEY)

Financials Rank #259 of 1097 ⚔️ RF vs KEY Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (KEY vs. RF, FCNCA, CFG, BBDO)

Industry: Major Banks (248 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1097 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, KeyCorp (KEY) ranks #259 by composite RQD confidence (64/100, grade C) and #112 by equity capitalization ($22.54B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, RF leads on earnings valuation at 11.4x trailing P/E, while KEY leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 2.6% ROIC and — gross margin. FCNCA currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 69/100 (C+) compared with KEY at 64/100 (C).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
KEY ACTIVE
KeyCorp
C 64/100 12.5x — 2.6% +1.75% $22.54B Benchmark Subject
RF
Regions Financial Corporation
C- 61/100 11.4x — 0.1% +1.40% $24.34B /rf-vs-key →
FCNCA
First Citizens BancShares Inc.
C+ 69/100 12.2x — 2.6% +0.66% $26.57B /fcnca-vs-key →
CFG
Citizens Financial Group Inc.
C- 59/100 15.1x — 2.1% +1.76% $26.75B /cfg-vs-key →
BBDO
Banco Bradesco Sa (each representing one Common Share)
D 44/100 — — — +0.41% $27.10B /bbdo-vs-key →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000091576 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), KeyCorp (KEY) reported GAAP revenue of $1.75B (+6.5% vs. FY2024 revenue of $1.64B , and +21.9% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $1.83B, operating cash flow of $2.21B, and free cash flow of $2.13B (+260.9% YoY). On the balance sheet, KEY closed FY2025 with $184.38B in total assets against $73.80B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 8/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $1.75B $1.83B $2.21B $2.13B $184.38B $73.80B
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $1.64B -$161.0M $664.0M $590.1M $187.17B $76.05B
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $1.44B $967.0M $2.90B $2.84B $12.61B $2.95B

3. KEY Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is KEY stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, KeyCorp (NYSE: KEY) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 64/100 at a spot price of $21.49 (+1.75% 1D, market cap $22.54B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 13/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 15/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, KEY ranks #259 in composite RQD confidence.

How does KEY compare to RF and FCNCA in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Major Banks), KEY carries a Roarable C (64/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 12.5x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 2.6%. By comparison, RF (Regions Financial Corporation) holds a C- grade (61/100 RQD, P/E 11.4x, ROIC 0.1%, cap $24.34B) and FCNCA (First Citizens BancShares Inc.) posts a C+ grade (69/100 RQD, P/E 12.2x, ROIC 2.6%, cap $26.57B). Among the 5-stock peer group, RF leads on earnings multiple (11.4x) while KEY leads on capital efficiency (2.6% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for KEY?

Per KEY's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000091576), KeyCorp generated $1.75B in revenue (+6.5% YoY), $1.83B in net income, and $2.13B in free cash flow against $184.38B in total assets and $73.80B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is KEY trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

KEY last traded at $21.49 (+1.75% on volume of 17,336,702 shares), positioning the stock +2.77% above its 50-day simple moving average ($20.91) and -0.32% below its 200-day simple moving average ($21.56). Across its 52-week range of $16.91 to $24.07, KEY sits at the 64.0% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 54.0 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±4.0% ($20.63 to $22.35).

Direct Sub-Reports: KEY RQD Cockpit KEY 12M Forecast KEY Earnings & Move KEY Dividends & DRIP KEY Insiders & 13F KEY Whale Options KEY Profit Sankey KEY News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 64/100 (C) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

KEY — KeyCorp: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

KeyCorp (KEY) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 64/100, corresponding to a C letter grade (Roarable Hold) at a spot price of $21.49 (+1.75% 1D, market capitalization $22.54B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (13/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 2.6%, gross margin of —, operating margin of 75.0%, and free cash flow yield of 9.29%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (13/20) + Insider Conviction (15/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (8/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (15/20): Incorporates a 1.07x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

KeyCorp is a NYSE-listed issuer in the Financials sector, Major Banks industry..9B. — for further business detail.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), KeyCorp (KEY) reported $1.75B in annual revenue (up from $1.64B in FY2024, +6.5% YoY) and $1.83B in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($1.44B revenue, $967.0M net income) through FY2025, KEY scaled operating cash flow to $2.21B and free cash flow to $2.13B, backed by $184.38B in total assets against $73.80B in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (C • RQD 64/100): Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 13/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 13/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $16.91 – $24.07 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Investors must weigh 12.5x trailing P/E and 30.3x EV/EBITDA against 75.0% operating margins and a 1.07x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Sector-level sensitivity is noted only through the Roarable RQD rating's macro regime pillar (beta 1.07), which suggests exposure to sector-wide moves.

  • Key Question #1: Can KEY sustain or expand its 75.0% operating margin and 2.6% ROIC against Major Banks peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $1.75B and free cash flow of $2.13B, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $73.80B in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is KEY's 11.6x forward P/E multiple to Financials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.07x)?

KEY Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for KeyCorp (KEY) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to KEY Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

KEY Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $21.49?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON KEY 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on KEY:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
AL AlphaFlow_Cap RQD DEBATE OPENER • Verified $100K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $26.40 (+25.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Per the RQD rating, insider conviction (15/20) and forensic balance sheet (15/20) are the strongest pillars, with a 9.29% FCF yield and

Don't sleep on KEY's setup in Financials. Per the RQD rating, insider conviction (15/20) and forensic balance sheet (15/20) are the strongest pillars, with a 9.29% FCF yield and 11.6 forward P/E.. Beta of 1.07 means it moves fast when momentum turns, and the 5-pillar RQD gauge (64/100) backs up the fundamental quality.

EarningsSniper 🐂 BULL

@ShortSeller_Dan Shorting a 13/20 institutional whale-flow stock at $21.12 is dangerous when funds are rotating into Financials.

SH ShortSeller_Dan RQD DEBATE OPENER • Forensic Short Bias 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $16.05 (-24.0%)
Spot @ $21.12

Per the RQD rating, macro regime fit scores only 9/20 on beta 1.07, and ROIC is just 2.6% against an EV/EBITDA of 30.3.

Here is the bear case nobody on the bull side wants to address on KEY: Per the RQD rating, macro regime fit scores only 9/20 on beta 1.07, and ROIC is just 2.6% against an EV/EBITDA of 30.3.. At 12.5x trailing P/E, even a small guidance miss in Major Banks triggers a 12-15% air pocket.

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