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Stock Ratings / Financials / KREF / earnings
PINE (47) ARI (55) LAND (43) NREF (47) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc. (KREF) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±10.7% Move

$5.25 -0.76% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $5.23

KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc. (KREF) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 40/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D- • RED ALERT Cap $300.9M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on KREF Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is KREF stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
▼

As of 2026-11-03, KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc. (NYSE: KREF) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 40/100 at a spot price of $5.25 (-0.76% 1D, market cap $300.9M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 10/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 3/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 7/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 10/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, KREF ranks #917 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does KREF compare to PINE and ARI in the Financials sector?
▼

Within the Financials sector (Real Estate Investment Trusts), KREF carries a Roarable D- (40/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -4.0%. By comparison, PINE (Alpine Income Property Trust Inc.) holds a D grade (47/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 3.8%, cap $303.6M) and ARI (Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc) posts a D+ grade (55/100 RQD, P/E 6.5x, ROIC 6.8%, cap $296.2M). Among the 5-stock peer group, ARI leads on earnings multiple (6.5x) while ARI leads on capital efficiency (6.8% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for KREF?
▼

Per KREF's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001631596), KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc. generated $2.72B in revenue (+1.8% YoY), -$47.1M in net income, and $72.3M in free cash flow against $6.46B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
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INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $5.23 (-0.33%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-0.68% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 10/20 (D) • 2.7% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (40/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-7.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • D-
025507510040
3-of-3 Quant Analysts Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw D- · Rk D-
Cash (10)Whales (3)SEC (10)Macro (7)CEO (10)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-8.2% Base Target
$10 Bull$5 Base$4 Bear
📬 FREE KREF RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for KREF)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±10.7%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (40/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY KREF SCORES 40/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+10/20 pts (25% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 2.7% FCF Margin ($72.3M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+10/20 pts (25% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 3/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-16 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
48
Grade D$5.86-6.5% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
45
Grade D$5.48+2.7% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
43
Grade D$5.63-6.7% Next Q
Current
40
Grade D-$5.25-7.4% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: D (48) → D- (40)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a KREF Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While KREF currently carries a cautious 40/100 (D-) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($6.42) and Max Pain ($5.51) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $9.55.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Cannibal Buyback (-0.68% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $KREF• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “KREF Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 40%NO 60%Trade / Inspect Odds →
NEXT EST. WINDOW: Dec 30, 2026 (~56 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±10.7% Swing Band

±$0.56 Expected Swing
$4.69 (-10.7%)Spot $5.25$5.81 (+10.7%)
MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

KREF Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 40/100

Trailing EPS: $4.25 • YoY Revenue Growth: 12.4%

Model Bullish Setup (40/100)Model Risk Weight (60/100)
Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).
LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

PeriodFiledRevenueNet ProfitFree Cash FlowGross Margin
FY 20252025-12-31$2.72B-$47.1M$72.3M52%
FY 20242024-12-31$2.67B$35.6M$132.6M52%
FY 20232023-12-31$591.7M-$30.9M$155.7M52%
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring KREF)

  • ✓Walkthrough of KREF's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
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KREF // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -19.48%▼ SUPPORT BREAKDOWN
2026-11-04O $5.29H $5.29L $5.25C $5.25VOL 2.23M
RES: $8.60SUP: $5.30SMA50: $6.42SMA200: $6.84
$8.29$7.47$6.64$5.82$4.99RES $8.60SUP $5.30$5.252026-05-052026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-04
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

KREF Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 KREF Butterfly Map → + Track KREF →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +1.8% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on KREF today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for KREF. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for KREF today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (KREF)

Financials Rank #917 of 1097 ⚔️ PINE vs KREF Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (KREF vs. PINE, ARI, LAND, NREF)

Industry: Real Estate Investment Trusts (172 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1097 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc. (KREF) ranks #917 by composite RQD confidence (40/100, grade D-) and #807 by equity capitalization ($300.9M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, ARI leads on earnings valuation at 6.5x trailing P/E, while ARI leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 6.8% ROIC and — gross margin. ARI currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 55/100 (D+) compared with KREF at 40/100 (D-).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
KREF ACTIVE
KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc.
D- 40/100 — — -4.0% -0.76% $300.9M Benchmark Subject
PINE
Alpine Income Property Trust Inc.
D 47/100 — — 3.8% +3.23% $303.6M /pine-vs-kref →
ARI
Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc
D+ 55/100 6.5x — 6.8% -0.86% $296.2M /ari-vs-kref →
LAND
Gladstone Land Corporation
D- 43/100 24.9x — 2.0% +0.14% $320.1M /land-vs-kref →
NREF
NexPoint Real Estate Finance Inc.
D 47/100 — — — -0.93% $282.2M /nref-vs-kref →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001631596 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc. (KREF) reported GAAP revenue of $2.72B (+1.8% vs. FY2024 revenue of $2.67B , and +358.9% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$47.1M, operating cash flow of $72.3M, and free cash flow of $72.3M (-45.5% YoY). On the balance sheet, KREF closed FY2025 with $6.46B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 3/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $2.72B -$47.1M $72.3M $72.3M $6.46B —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $2.67B $35.6M $132.6M $132.6M $6.35B —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $591.7M -$30.9M $155.7M $155.7M — —

3. KREF Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is KREF stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc. (NYSE: KREF) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 40/100 at a spot price of $5.25 (-0.76% 1D, market cap $300.9M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 10/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 3/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 7/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 10/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, KREF ranks #917 in composite RQD confidence.

How does KREF compare to PINE and ARI in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Real Estate Investment Trusts), KREF carries a Roarable D- (40/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -4.0%. By comparison, PINE (Alpine Income Property Trust Inc.) holds a D grade (47/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 3.8%, cap $303.6M) and ARI (Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc) posts a D+ grade (55/100 RQD, P/E 6.5x, ROIC 6.8%, cap $296.2M). Among the 5-stock peer group, ARI leads on earnings multiple (6.5x) while ARI leads on capital efficiency (6.8% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for KREF?

Per KREF's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001631596), KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc. generated $2.72B in revenue (+1.8% YoY), -$47.1M in net income, and $72.3M in free cash flow against $6.46B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is KREF trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

KREF last traded at $5.25 (-0.76% on volume of 2,230,101 shares), positioning the stock -18.22% below its 50-day simple moving average ($6.42) and -23.25% below its 200-day simple moving average ($6.84). Across its 52-week range of $5.25 to $9.10, KREF sits at the 0.0% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 38.3 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±10.7% ($4.69 to $5.81).

Direct Sub-Reports: KREF RQD Cockpit KREF 12M Forecast KREF Earnings & Move KREF Dividends & DRIP KREF Insiders & 13F KREF Whale Options KREF Profit Sankey KREF News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 40/100 (D-) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

KREF — KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc. (KREF) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 40/100, corresponding to a D- letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $5.25 (-0.76% 1D, market capitalization $300.9M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (10/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of -4.0%, gross margin of —, operating margin of —, and free cash flow yield of 21.64%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (3/20) + Insider Conviction (10/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (7/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (10/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 3/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc. Is a NYSE-listed issuer in the Financials sector, operating within Real Estate Investment Trusts,. Reported revenue is — in each of the three listed fiscal years, so the revenue line in the source does not describe how the company makes money. Market capitalization is $0.3B.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc. (KREF) reported $2.72B in annual revenue (up from $2.67B in FY2024, +1.8% YoY) and -$47.1M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($591.7M revenue, -$30.9M net income) through FY2025, KREF scaled operating cash flow to $72.3M and free cash flow to $72.3M, backed by $6.46B in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D- • RQD 40/100): Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of 21.64% and institutional whale pillar of 3/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 10/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 3/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $5.25 – $9.10 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation against — operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Operating in Real Estate Investment Trusts (Financials), KREF carries a macro regime beta of 1.00 and gross margin of —.

  • Key Question #1: Can KREF sustain or expand its — operating margin and -4.0% ROIC against Real Estate Investment Trusts peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $2.72B and free cash flow of $72.3M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is KREF's equity valuation to Financials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

KREF Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc. (KREF) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to KREF Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

KREF Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $5.25?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON KREF 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on KREF:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
AL AlphaFlow_Cap RQD DEBATE OPENER • Verified $100K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $6.72 (+27.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

FCF yield of 21.64% indicates substantial cash generation relative to the market price.

FCF yield of 21.64% indicates substantial cash generation relative to the market price.. When you look under the hood at KREF, Fundamental Cash Engine is 10/20 with 0.0% gross margins and -4.0% ROIC. Bears are staring in the rearview mirror while institutional 13F flow (3/20) has been quietly accumulating below $9.10. My 12M target is $6.72.

SectorRotator 🐂 BULL

@RedlineAuditor Fair point on current EV/EBITDA multiples, but you're ignoring the forward operating leverage in Real Estate Investment Trusts. If gross margin (0.0%) holds, EPS grows into the multiple faster than bears think.

RE RedlineAuditor RQD DEBATE OPENER • Accounting Quality Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $4.34 (-18.0%)
Spot @ $5.29

ROIC of -4% and a FY 2025 net loss of -$47.1M show the cash engine is not yet earning returns on capital.

Fading this rally in KREF at $5.29. ROIC of -4% and a FY 2025 net loss of -$47.1M show the cash engine is not yet earning returns on capital.. With a beta of 1.0 and the stock sitting at $5.29 (52-wk range $5.25–$9.10), the easy multiple expansion is already priced in.

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