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Kratos Defense & Security Solutions Inc. (KTOS) Insider, 13F Hedge Fund & Politician Buy/Sell Thermometer

$41.09 -5.73% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $40.59

Kratos Defense & Security Solutions Inc. (KTOS) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 37/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (37/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE D- • RED ALERT Cap $7.71B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on KTOS Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is KTOS stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-03, Kratos Defense & Security Solutions Inc. (NASDAQ: KTOS) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 37/100 at a spot price of $41.09 (-5.73% 1D, market cap $7.71B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 6/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 7/20, Executive Insider Alignment 14/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 5/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 5/20. Across 485 tracked Industrials issuers, KTOS ranks #353 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does KTOS compare to FLR and LOAR in the Industrials sector?

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Within the Industrials sector (Military/Government/Technical), KTOS carries a Roarable D- (37/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 22.9%, and ROIC of 1.4%. By comparison, FLR (Fluor Corporation) holds a E grade (28/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -13.7%, cap $6.27B) and LOAR (Loar Holdings Inc.) posts a D+ grade (56/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 4.7%, cap $5.82B). Among the 5-stock peer group, GVA leads on earnings multiple (27.6x) while STRL leads on capital efficiency (32.3% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for KTOS?

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Per KTOS's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-28, CIK 0001069258), Kratos Defense & Security Solutions Inc. generated $1.35B in revenue (+18.5% YoY), $22.0M in net income, and -$102.7M in free cash flow against $2.47B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Industrials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $40.59 (-1.22%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+1.92% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 6/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (37/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-8.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • D-

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk D

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-9.4% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for KTOS)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±11.2%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (37/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY KTOS SCORES 37/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+14/20 pts (38% of score)

Altman Z-Score 11.11 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 5/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+7/20 pts (19% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±11.2% realized swing band)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution5/20 pts (-15 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+1.92% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 15 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade E$39.33-1.5% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade E$38.74+6.3% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade E$41.17-0.2% Next Q

Current

Grade D-$41.09-8.1% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: E (29) → D- (37)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a KTOS Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While KTOS currently carries a cautious 37/100 (D-) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (5/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Industrials with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($44.47) and Max Pain ($43.14) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $140.70.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+1.92% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $KTOS• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “KTOS Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 27, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 37%NO 63%Trade / Inspect Odds →

SEC FORM 4 × 13F HEDGE FUNDS × CONGRESSIONAL STOCK ACT

KTOS Smart-Money Thermometer: NET EXECUTIVE TRIMMING / PROFIT-TAKING

Explore All 13F & Congress Whales →

▲ Disclosed Buys: 0 ($0)▼ Disclosed Sales: 0 ($0)

Wide-Open SEC Form 4, 13F & Congressional Disclosure Ledger (KTOS)

No recent open-market Form 4 cluster sales or emergency dumps flagged on KTOS. Visit the Global 13F & Congressional Whale Ledger for cross-market smart-money filings.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring KTOS)

✓Walkthrough of KTOS's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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KTOS // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -33.65%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE

2026-11-03O $43.59H $43.59L $41.09C $41.09VOL 3.42M

RES: $67.38SUP: $35.45SMA50: $44.47SMA200: $62.90

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

KTOS Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 KTOS Butterfly Map → + Track KTOS →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

48.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +18.5% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on KTOS today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for KTOS. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for KTOS today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (KTOS)

Industrials Rank #353 of 485 ⚔️ FLR vs KTOS Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Industrials Peer Comparison (KTOS vs. FLR, LOAR, STRL, GVA)

Industry: Military/Government/Technical (43 Tracked Issuers)

Across 485 tracked Industrials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Kratos Defense & Security Solutions Inc. (KTOS) ranks #353 by composite RQD confidence (37/100, grade D-) and #113 by equity capitalization ($7.71B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, GVA leads on earnings valuation at 27.6x trailing P/E, while STRL leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 32.3% ROIC and 23.0% gross margin. GVA currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 67/100 (C+) compared with KTOS at 37/100 (D-).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
KTOS ACTIVE Kratos Defense & Security Solutions Inc.	D-	37/100	—	22.9%	1.4%	-5.73%	$7.71B	Benchmark Subject
FLR Fluor Corporation	E	28/100	—	-0.8%	-13.7%	-1.47%	$6.27B	/flr-vs-ktos →
LOAR Loar Holdings Inc.	D+	56/100	—	52.7%	4.7%	-4.17%	$5.82B	/loar-vs-ktos →
STRL Sterling Infrastructure Inc.	C-	60/100	39.4x	23.0%	32.3%	-7.43%	$10.55B	/strl-vs-ktos →
GVA Granite Construction Incorporated	C+	67/100	27.6x	16.1%	13.8%	+1.59%	$5.46B	/gva-vs-ktos →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-28 • CIK 0001069258

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-28), Kratos Defense & Security Solutions Inc. (KTOS) reported GAAP revenue of $1.35B (+18.5% vs. FY2024 revenue of $1.14B , and +29.9% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $22.0M, operating cash flow of -$42.1M, and free cash flow of -$102.7M (-7064.7% YoY). On the balance sheet, KTOS closed FY2025 with $2.47B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 11.11, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-28	$1.35B	$22.0M	-$42.1M	-$102.7M	$2.47B	$0
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-29	$1.14B	$16.3M	$49.7M	-$1.4M	$1.95B	$174.6M
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$1.04B	-$8.9M	$65.2M	$18.5M	$4.50B	$1.05B

3. KTOS Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is KTOS stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does KTOS compare to FLR and LOAR in the Industrials sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for KTOS?

Where is KTOS trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

KTOS last traded at $41.09 (-5.73% on volume of 3,418,270 shares), positioning the stock -7.60% below its 50-day simple moving average ($44.47) and -34.67% below its 200-day simple moving average ($62.90). Across its 52-week range of $36.37 to $134.00, KTOS sits at the 4.8% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 46.0 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±11.2% ($36.49 to $45.69).

KTOS Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Are KTOS insiders and hedge funds buying or selling?

Roarable's SEC Form 4 and 13F Whale Thermometer currently classifies KTOS leadership and institutional positioning as: NET EXECUTIVE TRIMMING / PROFIT-TAKING.

Direct Sub-Reports: KTOS RQD Cockpit KTOS 12M Forecast KTOS Earnings & Move KTOS Dividends & DRIP KTOS Insiders & 13F KTOS Whale Options KTOS Profit Sankey KTOS News & Why

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 37/100 (D-) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

KTOS — Kratos Defense & Security Solutions Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5

As of: 2026-11-02T15:17:41Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, KTOS scores 40 out of 100, a letter grade of D-, with the verdict label "Roarable Sell — Vulnerable Balance Sheet & Flow." The five pillars break down as follows:

Fundamental Cash Engine (6 / 20): The rating cites an ROIC of 1.4% and an FCF yield of -1.26%. For a prospective investor, this indicates the business is currently generating little return on invested capital and negative free cash flow relative to its market value, which limits the cash-based case for the shares.
Whale 13F Flow (10 / 20): The pillar reflects institutional accumulation and options positioning. The underlying holder detail is not provided in this source set, so the pillar score cannot be decomposed further here.
Insider Conviction (5 / 20): The pillar reflects SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow. Specific transactions are not itemized in the source data, but the low score signals limited insider-side conviction as measured by this framework.
Macro Regime Fit (5 / 20): The rating cites a beta of 1.01 and sector sensitivity. A beta near 1.0 implies market-like volatility, while the low pillar score suggests the stock's regime alignment is weak under this framework.
Forensic Balance Sheet (14 / 20): The rating cites an Altman Z-Score of 11.11, a Piotroski F-Score of 5/9, and a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.5. This is the strongest pillar, indicating the balance sheet is comparatively sound even as operating returns are thin.

Investor implications: the upside case rests on the balance sheet resilience and recent price momentum, while valuation and cash-flow metrics present the main tradeoffs. The EV/EBITDA of 95 indicates a rich multiple relative to the reported operating economics. Readers should weigh the balance sheet strength against the weak cash engine and low macro-fit score.

Business

Kratos Defense & Security Solutions Inc. is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Industrials sector, operating in the Military/Government/Technical industry. Per the company profile, the company's market capitalization is $8.2B. The source data does not itemize products, customers, or revenue streams by segment, so the specific business model cannot be described beyond sector and industry classification.

Financial Trend

Period	Revenue	Operating Income	Net Income	EPS	FCF	Cash	Debt
FY 2025	$1346.8M	$25.6M	$22.0M	N/A	$-102.7M	$560.6M	$0.0M
FY 2024	$1136.3M	$29.0M	$16.3M	N/A	$-1.4M	$329.3M	$174.6M
FY 2023	$1037.1M	$31.1M	$-8.9M	N/A	$18.5M	N/A	$1053.1M

Per the SEC financials, revenue rose from $1037.1M in FY 2023 to $1346.8M in FY 2025, while net income moved from $-8.9M to $22.0M. Per the market data, gross margin is 22.9%, operating margin is 1.9%, and net margin is 1.6%, with ROIC at 1.4%. The Altman Z-Score of 11.11 and Piotroski F-Score of 5/9 are cited within the Roarable RQD rating's forensic balance sheet pillar. Reported debt was $0.0M in FY 2025 after $174.6M in FY 2024, and free cash flow was negative in FY 2025 at $-102.7M.

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

Market Wire / Yellow: Yahoo Finance coverage of institutional positioning and fundamental catalysts (1h ago).
Risk Watch / Red: TradingView report of a 12-month price target cut to $99.96, implying 138% upside (3h ago).
Market Wire / Yellow: Yahoo Finance coverage questioning cash flow stretch (6h ago).
Market Wire / Yellow: StockInvest.us price forecast coverage (9h ago).
Risk Watch / Red: Investing.com report that Citizens cut its price target on budget uncertainty (12h ago).
Market Wire / Yellow: The Motley Fool coverage referencing Valkyrie orders (15h ago).

Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, no supply-chain links or proprietary signals are recorded for KTOS; the supply chain field is listed as NONE.

Open Questions

What are the specific drivers of negative FY 2025 free cash flow of $-102.7M despite positive net income?
What explains the gap between an EV/EBITDA of 95 and an operating margin of 1.9%?
Which holders are contributing to the whale 13F flow score, and what is the direction of insider transactions?
What is the consensus analyst rating and current price target distribution?
What is the company's exposure to the government budget uncertainty referenced in recent coverage?

KTOS Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Kratos Defense & Security Solutions Inc. (KTOS) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to KTOS Debate Forum (3) ↓

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 15h ago

Kratos Defense & Security Solutions (KTOS), Why Is It Drawing Fresh Attention?

Yahoo Finance report covering Kratos Defense & Security Solutions Inc. (KTOS) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔴 RISK WATCH TradingView • 18h ago

Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc. Stock 12‑Month Price Target Cut to $99.96, Implies 138% Upside

TradingView report covering Kratos Defense & Security Solutions Inc. (KTOS) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 21h ago

Is Kratos Defense & Security Solutions (KTOS) Getting Too Stretched On Cash Flow?

Yahoo Finance report covering Kratos Defense & Security Solutions Inc. (KTOS) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE StockInvest.us • 1d ago

Kratos Defense & Security Solutions Stock Price Forecast. Should You Buy KTOS?

StockInvest.us report covering Kratos Defense & Security Solutions Inc. (KTOS) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔴 RISK WATCH Investing.com • 1d ago

Citizens cuts Kratos Defense stock price target on budget uncertainty

Investing.com report covering Kratos Defense & Security Solutions Inc. (KTOS) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE The Motley Fool • 1d ago

Should You Buy Kratos Defense Stock Before the Valkyrie Orders Show Up?

The Motley Fool report covering Kratos Defense & Security Solutions Inc. (KTOS) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Benzinga • 1d ago

10 Industrials Stocks Whale Activity In Today’s Session - Kratos Defense & Security (NASDAQ:KTOS), Rocket

Benzinga report covering Kratos Defense & Security Solutions Inc. (KTOS) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE GuruFocus • 1d ago

A Look at Kratos Defense & Security Solutions Inc (KTOS) After 3

GuruFocus report covering Kratos Defense & Security Solutions Inc. (KTOS) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

KTOS Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $41.09?

🐂 33% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON KTOS 🐻 67% BEARISH CONVICTION

RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $38.36 (-12.0%)

📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is KTOS (D- • RQD 40/100) a Buy at $43.59?

Welcome to the KTOS (Kratos Defense & Security Solutions Inc.) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 40/100 (Roarable Sell — Vulnerable Balance Sheet & Flow) in Military/Government/Technical. Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

BE BearTrap_Alert Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $33.56 (-23.0%)

Spot @ $43.59

Pump the brakes on KTOS — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on KTOS, but look at what you are paying: current EV/EBITDA multiples with 22.9% gross margins. Unless Kratos Defense & Security Solutions Inc. expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

QU QuantViper Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $50.56 (+16.0%)

Spot @ $43.59

KTOS cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on KTOS, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Military/Government/Technical and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $43.59 (52-wk range $36.37 - $134.00), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.