Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) Insider, 13F Hedge Fund & Politician Buy/Sell Thermometer

Per the Roarable RQD rating, LLY scores 72 out of 100, graded B and labeled "Roarable Buy — Good Risk/Reward." The five pillars are:

• Fundamental Cash Engine: 19 / 20. Per the RQD rating, this pillar is anchored by ROIC of 32.4% and an FCF yield of 2.3%. It is the strongest pillar and the main reason the composite score is high. For an investor, it signals a business generating high returns on invested capital, though the 2.3% FCF yield means the market is pricing in substantial future growth.
• Whale 13F Flow: 14 / 20. Per the RQD rating, this reflects institutional accumulation and options positioning. The holders section shows two large hedge-fund 13F purchases (Citadel Advisors and Renaissance Technologies) alongside a Duquesne Family Office purchase, which supports this pillar.
• Insider Conviction: 13 / 20. Per the RQD rating, this reflects SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow. The holders section shows multiple open-market insider sales, which weighs on this pillar and is the lowest-scoring signal in the composite.
• Macro Regime Fit: 14 / 20. Per the RQD rating, this reflects a beta of 0.51 and sector sensitivity. A low beta suggests less sensitivity to broad market swings than the average stock, which is a defensive characteristic even though the sector drivers remain company-specific.
• Forensic Balance Sheet: 12 / 20. Per the RQD rating, this reflects an Altman Z-Score of 9.29, a Piotroski F-Score of 9/9, and a Debt/Equity ratio of 1.23. The Z-Score and F-Score are strong, but the leverage figure and the lower pillar score indicate the balance sheet is the most modest contributor to the composite.

Investor implications: the composite profile is one of high-quality operations and strong cash generation, offset by a premium valuation (P/E TTM of 48.4 and EV/EBITDA of 36.4 per the market data) and a moderate forensic and insider-signal score. Upside drivers in the source data include the analyst price targets and the institutional buying noted above. Valuation tradeoffs are visible in the gap between trailing and forward multiples and the low 2.3% FCF yield. This brief is analytical and educational and is not personalized financial advice.

Per the profile, Eli Lilly operates in the Health Care sector, within the Biopharmaceuticals industry focused on GLP-1/GIP cardiometabolic therapies and oncology. The company discovers and manufactures cardiometabolic incretin therapies (including Mounjaro and Zepbound tirzepatide and oral orforglipron), oncology medicines (including Verzenio), immunology biologics, and Kisunla Alzheimer's disease therapeutics. Per the butterfly supply-chain graph, its primary customers are the Big 3 US wholesalers (McKesson, Cencora and Cardinal Health) and the large PBMs (OptumRx, CVS Caremark and Cigna Express Scripts). Per the profile, the stock trades on the NYSE.

Per the market data, gross margin is 83.6%, operating margin is 40.2%, and net margin is 31.9%, with ROIC at 32.4%. Per the RQD rating, the Altman Z-Score is 9.29 and the Piotroski F-Score is 9/9, both strong readings. Per the RQD rating, Debt/Equity is 1.23. Across the four reported periods, quarterly revenue rose from $19291.0M to $24397.0M, while debt moved from $42503.0M to $49503.0M, peaking at $54908.0M in Q2 2026.

Per the news wire, recent headlines include a Reuters report that Eli Lilly lifted its revenue outlook as weight-loss shot demand rose (marked as a GREEN catalyst), a Seeking Alpha piece titled on the GLP-1 growth premium (GREEN), and a TradingView report that LLY hit a new record and that its valuation moved past Berkshire Hathaway ahead of Q3 earnings (GREEN). Two Yahoo Finance items are marked YELLOW as market-wire coverage.

Per the butterfly graph, the key risk and watch items are:

• Bottleneck beneficiary (Thermo Fisher, TMO): sterile fill-finish capacity scarcity is a tailwind, with FDA GMP validation requiring 18–36 months for new lines.
• Competitive pressure from Novo Nordisk (NVO): tirzepatide's head-to-head weight-loss advantage over semaglutide intensifies PBM rebate competition.
• Medicare policy exposure (UnitedHealth, UNH): expanded Part D coverage of GLP-1 indications raises specialty drug costs.
• Proprietary signal: a SuitScore inverse-suit signal (severity 87, bullish) notes that the Barclays target of $1473 underperform rating carries a 34.5% one-year hit rate, while LLY scores 19/20 on forensic fundamentals.

Next catalysts named in the graph include Phase 3 oral orforglipron and retatrutide readouts and Medicare Part D IRA price negotiation updates.

Upstream, per the graph, LLY depends on sterile fill-finish CDMOs and peptide API facilities (CTLT, rated CRITICAL, 48% revenue exposure) and on medical injector component suppliers (BDX, rated CRITICAL, 22%). Downstream, the Big 3 wholesalers (MCK, 84% revenue exposure, CRITICAL) and the PBMs (UNH, 55%, CRITICAL) are the critical customer channels.

Second-order ripples the graph identifies:

• Thermo Fisher (TMO): a bottleneck-beneficiary tailwind following the Catalent site acquisition, with the disclosed exposure left undisclosed.
• West Pharmaceutical (WST): supplies elastomer plungers used in GLP-1 pens; short-term utilization is mixed.
• ResMed (RMD): an analyst-hypothesis headwind, as Zepbound's OSA indication could substitute for CPAP devices, though a competing view holds that screening campaigns may expand CPAP starts.
• Dexcom (DXCM): an analyst-hypothesis mixed constraint, with GLP-1 companion CGM co-prescription offset by ASP pressure.

Watch the TMO organic revenue print, the RMD mask re-supply trend against OSA script tracking, and UNH's medical care ratio.

Per the analyst data, the consensus is 21 buy, 4 hold, and 1 sell, with 11 Strong Buy ratings and 0 Strong Sell. The mean price target is 1689.87, the median is 1687.04, the low target is 1472.99 and the high is 1824.54. The implied upside is 19.21%, and the Street BS score is 82.

Recent analyst actions include UBS reiterating Outperform with a $1586.39 target, Morgan Stanley upgrading to Strong Buy with a $1784.85 target, Goldman Sachs upgrading to Strong Buy with a $1824.54 target, and Barclays downgrading to Underperform with a $1472.99 target (its one-year accuracy is 34.5%, graded F).

Per the holders data, 13F institutional purchases include Duquesne Family Office (275000 shares at $1142.85, total $314283750, filed 2026-10-16), Citadel Advisors (310000 shares at $1213.91, total $376312100, filed 2026-07-23), and Renaissance Technologies (265000 shares at $1213.91, total $321686150, filed 2026-07-21). Insider Form 4 transactions shown are all sales: Jonsson Patrik (6500 shares, $7638150), Zakrowski Donald A (2000 shares, $2370020), Hakim Anat (5000 shares, $5950000), Yuffa Ilya (2500 shares, $2876925), and Lilly Endowment Inc (15828 shares, $15754558.08). Congressional PTR trades are not available in source data.

• Congressional PTR trade data for LLY is not available in source data, so the insider-conviction pillar cannot be checked against politician flow.
• The disclosed percentage of revenue exposure for the TMO, WST, RMD, and DXCM links is undisclosed in the source data, so the magnitude of second-order effects cannot be sized.
• The source data does not specify the revenue breakdown by product, so the share of revenue attributable to tirzepatide cannot be determined.
• The source data does not give the basis for the Congressional and Form 4 sell clustering relative to the 13F buying, so the reasons for the divergence are unresolved.
• The source data does not include forward earnings estimates, so the forward P/E of 30.6 cannot be reconciled against consensus EPS expectations.