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LeonaBio Inc. (LONA) Insider, 13F Hedge Fund & Politician Buy/Sell Thermometer

$4.73 -4.25% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $4.68

LeonaBio Inc. (LONA) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 35/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D- • RED ALERT Cap $46.5M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is LONA stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, LeonaBio Inc. (NASDAQ: LONA) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 35/100 at a spot price of $4.73 (-4.25% 1D, market cap $46.5M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 9/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 3/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 5/20. Across 1015 tracked Health Care issuers, LONA ranks #602 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does LONA compare to IMA and TIL in the Health Care sector?
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Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances)), LONA carries a Roarable D- (35/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, IMA (ImageneBio Inc.) holds a E grade (19/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $46.5M) and TIL (Instil Bio Inc.) posts a D- grade (39/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $46.1M). Among the 5-stock peer group, LONA leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while LONA leads on capital efficiency (-35.0% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for LONA?
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Per LONA's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001620463), LeonaBio Inc. generated $286.3M in revenue (+1.4% YoY), -$106.0M in net income, and -$45.7M in free cash flow against $92.2M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $4.68 (-0.96%)🧬 Disciplined Float (+0.72% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 9/20 (D) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (35/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-8.5% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • D-
025507510035
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk D
Cash (9)Whales (3)SEC (10)Macro (8)CEO (5)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-10.4% Base Target
$15 Bull$4 Base$3 Bear
📬 FREE LONA RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for LONA)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (35/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY LONA SCORES 35/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+10/20 pts (29% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 2/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+9/20 pts (26% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 0% FCF Margin ($0 FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-16 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
43
Grade D$6.43-18% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
40
Grade D$5.27-7.2% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
38
Grade E$4.89-3.3% Next Q
Current
35
Grade D-$4.73-8.5% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: D (43) → D- (35)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a LONA Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While LONA currently carries a cautious 35/100 (D-) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($5.94) and Max Pain ($4.97) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $14.92.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (+0.72% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $LONA• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “LONA Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 35%NO 65%Trade / Inspect Odds →
SEC FORM 4 × 13F HEDGE FUNDS × CONGRESSIONAL STOCK ACT

LONA Smart-Money Thermometer: NET EXECUTIVE TRIMMING / PROFIT-TAKING

Explore All 13F & Congress Whales →
▲ Disclosed Buys: 0 ($0)▼ Disclosed Sales: 0 ($0)

Wide-Open SEC Form 4, 13F & Congressional Disclosure Ledger (LONA)

No recent open-market Form 4 cluster sales or emergency dumps flagged on LONA. Visit the Global 13F & Congressional Whale Ledger for cross-market smart-money filings.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring LONA)

  • ✓Walkthrough of LONA's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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LONA // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -50.47%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-03O $4.91H $4.94L $4.73C $4.73VOL 43.1K
RES: $6.41SUP: $0.22SMA50: $5.94SMA200: $7.50
$12.09$9.41$6.73$4.06$1.38RES $6.41SUP $0.22$4.732026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

LONA Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 LONA Butterfly Map → + Track LONA →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +1.4% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on LONA today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for LONA. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for LONA today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (LONA)

Health Care Rank #602 of 1015 ⚔️ IMA vs LONA Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (LONA vs. IMA, TIL, CRBU, INMB)

Industry: Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances) (156 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1015 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, LeonaBio Inc. (LONA) ranks #602 by composite RQD confidence (35/100, grade D-) and #753 by equity capitalization ($46.5M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, LONA leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while LONA leads on capital efficiency and profitability with -35.0% ROIC and — gross margin. TIL currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 39/100 (D-) compared with LONA at 35/100 (D-).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
LONA ACTIVE
LeonaBio Inc.
D- 35/100 — — -35.0% -4.25% $46.5M Benchmark Subject
IMA
ImageneBio Inc.
E 19/100 — — -35.0% -0.24% $46.5M /ima-vs-lona →
TIL
Instil Bio Inc.
D- 39/100 — — -35.0% -3.68% $46.1M /til-vs-lona →
CRBU
Caribou Biosciences Inc.
E 32/100 — — -35.0% +3.95% $45.4M /crbu-vs-lona →
INMB
INmune Bio Inc.
E 30/100 — — -35.0% -4.83% $44.9M /inmb-vs-lona →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001620463 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), LeonaBio Inc. (LONA) reported GAAP revenue of $286.3M (+1.4% vs. FY2024 revenue of $282.5M , and -18.5% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$106.0M, operating cash flow of -$45.7M, and free cash flow of -$45.7M (+53.0% YoY). On the balance sheet, LONA closed FY2025 with $92.2M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 2/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $286.3M -$106.0M -$45.7M -$45.7M $92.2M —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $282.5M -$97.0M -$97.2M -$97.2M $58.8M —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $351.3M -$117.7M -$100.8M -$100.8M — —

3. LONA Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is LONA stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, LeonaBio Inc. (NASDAQ: LONA) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 35/100 at a spot price of $4.73 (-4.25% 1D, market cap $46.5M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 9/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 3/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 5/20. Across 1015 tracked Health Care issuers, LONA ranks #602 in composite RQD confidence.

How does LONA compare to IMA and TIL in the Health Care sector?

Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances)), LONA carries a Roarable D- (35/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, IMA (ImageneBio Inc.) holds a E grade (19/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $46.5M) and TIL (Instil Bio Inc.) posts a D- grade (39/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $46.1M). Among the 5-stock peer group, LONA leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while LONA leads on capital efficiency (-35.0% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for LONA?

Per LONA's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001620463), LeonaBio Inc. generated $286.3M in revenue (+1.4% YoY), -$106.0M in net income, and -$45.7M in free cash flow against $92.2M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is LONA trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

LONA last traded at $4.73 (-4.25% on volume of 26,752 shares), positioning the stock -20.37% below its 50-day simple moving average ($5.94) and -36.93% below its 200-day simple moving average ($7.50). Across its 52-week range of $2.21 to $14.21, LONA sits at the 21.0% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 43.9 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($4.14 to $5.32).

Direct Sub-Reports: LONA RQD Cockpit LONA 12M Forecast LONA Earnings & Move LONA Dividends & DRIP LONA Insiders & 13F LONA Whale Options LONA Profit Sankey LONA News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 35/100 (D-) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

LONA — LeonaBio Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

LeonaBio Inc. (LONA) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 35/100, corresponding to a D- letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $4.73 (-4.25% 1D, market capitalization $46.5M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (9/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of -35.0%, gross margin of —, operating margin of —, and free cash flow yield of —.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (3/20) + Insider Conviction (5/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (8/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (10/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 2/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

. Is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Health Care sector, operating in the Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances) industry. The company reported — in revenue in each of FY 2023, FY 2024, and FY 2025. — for customer base or specific revenue model.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), LeonaBio Inc. (LONA) reported $286.3M in annual revenue (up from $282.5M in FY2024, +1.4% YoY) and -$106.0M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($351.3M revenue, -$117.7M net income) through FY2025, LONA scaled operating cash flow to -$45.7M and free cash flow to -$45.7M, backed by $92.2M in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D- • RQD 35/100): Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of — and institutional whale pillar of 3/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 9/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 3/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $2.21 – $14.21 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation against — operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Operating in Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances) (Health Care), LONA carries a macro regime beta of 1.00 and gross margin of —.

  • Key Question #1: Can LONA sustain or expand its — operating margin and -35.0% ROIC against Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances) peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $286.3M and free cash flow of -$45.7M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is LONA's equity valuation to Health Care capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

LONA Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for LeonaBio Inc. (LONA) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to LONA Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

LONA Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $4.73?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON LONA 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on LONA:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
SI SiliconVal_Bull RQD DEBATE OPENER • Growth & Tech Investor 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $6.27 (+26.9%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Cash of $69.3M at FY 2025 exceeds the $45.7M FY 2025 free cash outflow, and the forensic balance sheet pillar scores 10/20.

Cash of $69.3M at FY 2025 exceeds the $45.7M FY 2025 free cash outflow, and the forensic balance sheet pillar scores 10/20.. When you look under the hood at LONA, Fundamental Cash Engine is 9/20 with 0.0% gross margins and -35.0% ROIC. Bears are staring in the rearview mirror while institutional 13F flow (3/20) has been quietly accumulating below $14.21. My 12M target is $6.27.

VolSurface_Trader 🐂 BULL

@RiskArb_Desk Shorting a 3/20 institutional whale-flow stock at $4.94 is dangerous when funds are rotating into Health Care.

RI RiskArb_Desk RQD DEBATE OPENER • Hedged Event Driven 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $3.95 (-20.0%)
Spot @ $4.94

The company reported $0.0M in revenue across FY 2023 to FY 2025, with ROIC at -35% and a Piotroski F-Score of 2/9.

Careful chasing LONA at $4.94. The company reported $0.0M in revenue across FY 2023 to FY 2025, with ROIC at -35% and a Piotroski F-Score of 2/9.. Gross margin is 0.0%, but operating margin is 0.0%, which shows SG&A and reinvestment are eating into bottom-line EPS. Target $3.95 on multiple compression.

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