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Intuitive Machines Inc. (LUNR) Options Positioning, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps

$9.86 -7.59% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $9.71

Intuitive Machines Inc. (LUNR) carries a Roarable Rating of E (Strong Sell) with 27/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE E • RED ALERT Cap $2.44B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is LUNR stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Intuitive Machines Inc. (NASDAQ: LUNR) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 27/100 at a spot price of $9.86 (-7.59% 1D, market cap $2.44B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 4/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 4/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 3/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 6/20. Across 486 tracked Industrials issuers, LUNR ranks #429 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does LUNR compare to QS and KMT in the Industrials sector?
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Within the Industrials sector (Industrial Machinery/Components), LUNR carries a Roarable E (27/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -32.2%. By comparison, QS (QuantumScape Corporation (Class A)) holds a E grade (29/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $2.53B) and KMT (Kennametal Inc.) posts a D+ grade (53/100 RQD, P/E 23.4x, ROIC 9.5%, cap $2.22B). Among the 5-stock peer group, KMT leads on earnings multiple (23.4x) while DXPE leads on capital efficiency (13.8% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for LUNR?
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Per LUNR's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001844452), Intuitive Machines Inc. generated $207.1M in revenue (-9.2% YoY), -$83.3M in net income, and -$56.0M in free cash flow against $757.2M in total assets and $335.3M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Industrials with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $9.71 (-1.56%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+1.64% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 4/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (27/100 · E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-10.3% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • E
025507510027
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk E
Cash (4)Whales (4)SEC (10)Macro (3)CEO (6)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-14% Base Target
$49 Bull$8 Base$7 Bear
📬 FREE LUNR RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for LUNR)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (27/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY LUNR SCORES 27/100 (E) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+10/20 pts (37% of score)

Altman Z-Score 2.24 (WATCH ZONE (1.8–3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 5/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+6/20 pts (22% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 30% Net Buy • Dilution Drag (+1.64% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (39.3) create a -16 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
35
Grade E$11.02-1% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
32
Grade E$10.91+6.2% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
30
Grade E$11.59-14.9% Next Q
Current
27
Grade E$9.86-10.3% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: E (35) → E (27)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a LUNR Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While LUNR currently carries a cautious 27/100 (E) rating due to Macro Regime Fit (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Industrials with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($13.51) and Max Pain ($10.35) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $49.09.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+1.64% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $LUNR• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “LUNR Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 27%NO 73%Trade / Inspect Odds →
CALL VS. PUT WHALE SHARE
— (No Active Options Snapshot)
Put/Call Ratio: — (No Active Options Snapshot)
MAX-PAIN EXPIRATION MAGNET
— (No Active Options Snapshot)
No active options chain max-pain snapshot on file
HISTORICAL 20D VOLATILITY SWING
±12.5%
Derived from 20D OHLCV bars (No Active Options Snapshot)

Active Strike Call vs. Put Concentration Ladder (LUNR)

— (No Active Options Snapshot) — No unusual CBOE strike concentration anomalies recorded in the current database snapshot for LUNR.

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Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring LUNR)

  • ✓Walkthrough of LUNR's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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LUNR // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -61.10%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-11-03O $11.68H $11.68L $9.86C $9.86VOL 5.34M
RES: $11.43SUP: $9.88SMA50: $13.51SMA200: $19.63
$49.33$38.63$27.94$17.24$6.54RES $11.43SUP $9.88$9.862026-05-042026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

LUNR Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 LUNR Butterfly Map → + Track LUNR →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
13.5%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -9.2% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on LUNR today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for LUNR. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for LUNR today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (LUNR)

Industrials Rank #429 of 486 ⚔️ QS vs LUNR Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Industrials Peer Comparison (LUNR vs. QS, KMT, DXPE, OUST)

Industry: Industrial Machinery/Components (208 Tracked Issuers)

Across 486 tracked Industrials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Intuitive Machines Inc. (LUNR) ranks #429 by composite RQD confidence (27/100, grade E) and #195 by equity capitalization ($2.44B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, KMT leads on earnings valuation at 23.4x trailing P/E, while DXPE leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 13.8% ROIC and 31.5% gross margin. DXPE currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 60/100 (C-) compared with LUNR at 27/100 (E).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
LUNR ACTIVE
Intuitive Machines Inc.
E 27/100 — — -32.2% -7.59% $2.44B Benchmark Subject
QS
QuantumScape Corporation (Class A)
E 29/100 — — -35.0% -0.98% $2.53B /qs-vs-lunr →
KMT
Kennametal Inc.
D+ 53/100 23.4x 30.4% 9.5% +5.57% $2.22B /kmt-vs-lunr →
DXPE
DXP Enterprises Inc.
C- 60/100 30.8x 31.5% 13.8% -0.10% $2.71B /dxpe-vs-lunr →
OUST
Ouster Inc.
E 31/100 — 49.3% -30.1% -5.11% $2.14B /oust-vs-lunr →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001844452 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Intuitive Machines Inc. (LUNR) reported GAAP revenue of $207.1M (-9.2% vs. FY2024 revenue of $228.0M , and +160.4% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$83.3M, operating cash flow of -$14.3M, and free cash flow of -$56.0M (+17.4% YoY). On the balance sheet, LUNR closed FY2025 with $757.2M in total assets against $335.3M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 2.24, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $207.1M -$83.3M -$14.3M -$56.0M $757.2M $335.3M
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $228.0M -$283.4M -$57.6M -$67.7M $355.4M $0
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $79.6M $61.8M -$45.3M -$48.9M $1.47B $344.1M

3. LUNR Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is LUNR stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Intuitive Machines Inc. (NASDAQ: LUNR) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 27/100 at a spot price of $9.86 (-7.59% 1D, market cap $2.44B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 4/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 4/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 3/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 6/20. Across 486 tracked Industrials issuers, LUNR ranks #429 in composite RQD confidence.

How does LUNR compare to QS and KMT in the Industrials sector?

Within the Industrials sector (Industrial Machinery/Components), LUNR carries a Roarable E (27/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -32.2%. By comparison, QS (QuantumScape Corporation (Class A)) holds a E grade (29/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $2.53B) and KMT (Kennametal Inc.) posts a D+ grade (53/100 RQD, P/E 23.4x, ROIC 9.5%, cap $2.22B). Among the 5-stock peer group, KMT leads on earnings multiple (23.4x) while DXPE leads on capital efficiency (13.8% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for LUNR?

Per LUNR's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001844452), Intuitive Machines Inc. generated $207.1M in revenue (-9.2% YoY), -$83.3M in net income, and -$56.0M in free cash flow against $757.2M in total assets and $335.3M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Industrials with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is LUNR trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

LUNR last traded at $9.86 (-7.59% on volume of 6,011,860 shares), positioning the stock -27.02% below its 50-day simple moving average ($13.51) and -49.77% below its 200-day simple moving average ($19.63). Across its 52-week range of $7.78 to $46.75, LUNR sits at the 5.3% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 39.3 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($8.63 to $11.09).

Direct Sub-Reports: LUNR RQD Cockpit LUNR 12M Forecast LUNR Earnings & Move LUNR Dividends & DRIP LUNR Insiders & 13F LUNR Whale Options LUNR Profit Sankey LUNR News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 27/100 (E) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

LUNR — Intuitive Machines Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Intuitive Machines Inc. (LUNR) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 27/100, corresponding to a E letter grade (Roarable Strong Sell) at a spot price of $9.86 (-7.59% 1D, market capitalization $2.44B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (4/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of -32.2%, gross margin of —, operating margin of -42.1%, and free cash flow yield of -2.09%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (4/20) + Insider Conviction (6/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (3/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (10/20): Incorporates a 0.97x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 2.24, Piotroski F-Score of 5/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.85x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Intuitive Machines Inc. Is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Industrials sector, within the Industrial Machinery/Components industry. Its market capitalization is $2.7B.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Intuitive Machines Inc. (LUNR) reported $207.1M in annual revenue (up from $228.0M in FY2024, -9.2% YoY) and -$83.3M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($79.6M revenue, $61.8M net income) through FY2025, LUNR scaled operating cash flow to -$14.3M and free cash flow to -$56.0M, backed by $757.2M in total assets against $335.3M in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (E • RQD 27/100): Established market leader in Industrials with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of -2.09% and institutional whale pillar of 4/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 4/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 4/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $7.78 – $46.75 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation against -42.1% operating margins and a 0.97x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

— The Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph lists no upstream or downstream dependencies, no sector correlation links, and no proprietary signals. The only sector-level observation in the source data is the news item reporting that peer Rocket Lab and Redwire fell 5% alongside LUNR, which suggests co-movement with space-industry peers. Second-order bottlenecks cannot be identified from the provided material.

  • Key Question #1: Can LUNR sustain or expand its -42.1% operating margin and -32.2% ROIC against Industrial Machinery/Components peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $207.1M and free cash flow of -$56.0M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $335.3M in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is LUNR's 20.0x forward P/E multiple to Industrials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 0.97x)?

LUNR Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Intuitive Machines Inc. (LUNR) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to LUNR Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

LUNR Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $9.86?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON LUNR 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on LUNR:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
CA CashFlowKing RQD DEBATE OPENER • FCF Compounder Hunter 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $14.08 (+32.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

The balance sheet scores highest in the RQD rating, with cash of $582.6M exceeding debt of $335.3M in FY 2025.

Long LUNR at $10.67 targeting $14.08. The balance sheet scores highest in the RQD rating, with cash of $582.6M exceeding debt of $335.3M in FY 2025.. Institutional whale score is 4/20 and the risk/reward vs. the $7.78 52-week low is skewed heavily in favor of bulls.

CapAlloc_Nerd 🐂 BULL

@FadeTheHype Fair point on 20.0x forward P/E, but you're ignoring the forward operating leverage in Industrial Machinery/Components. If gross margin (0.0%) holds, EPS grows into the multiple faster than bears think.

FA FadeTheHype RQD DEBATE OPENER • Contrarian Tape Reader 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $8.22 (-23.0%)
Spot @ $10.67

ROIC of -32.2% and negative free cash flow in every reported period leave the cash-engine pillar at 4/20.

I respect the product at Intuitive Machines Inc., but the stock at $10.67 is a different story. ROIC of -32.2% and negative free cash flow in every reported period leave the cash-engine pillar at 4/20.. FCF yield is -2.09% and RQD sits at 27/100 (E) — why pay up here when you can wait for next quarter's numbers?

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