Seeking Alpha report covering LiveWire Group Inc. (LVWR) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Why LVWR Stock dropped -26.67% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
LiveWire Group Inc. (LVWR) carries a Roarable Rating of E (Strong Sell) with 20/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief)
Is LVWR stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-02, LiveWire Group Inc. (NYSE: LVWR) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 20/100 at a spot price of $0.66 (-26.67% 1D, market cap $184.9M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 5/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 3/20, Executive Insider Alignment 5/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 4/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, LVWR ranks #990 in composite RQD confidence.
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief)
How does LVWR compare to FOXF and HOG in the Consumer Discretionary sector?
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Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Motor Vehicles), LVWR carries a Roarable E (20/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of -17.3%, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, FOXF (Fox Factory Holding Corp.) holds a D- grade (39/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $686.4M) and HOG (Harley-Davidson Inc.) posts a B grade (75/100 RQD, P/E 9.3x, ROIC 18.0%, cap $3.16B). Among the 5-stock peer group, LKQ leads on earnings multiple (7.5x) while HOG leads on capital efficiency (18.0% ROIC).
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief)
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for LVWR?
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Per LVWR's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001898795), LiveWire Group Inc. generated $25.7M in revenue (-3.6% YoY), -$75.1M in net income, and -$57.4M in free cash flow against $146.4M in total assets and $74.2M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 0% FCF Margin ($0 FCF) & 0% Gross Margin
Altman Z-Score 0.20 (DISTRESS RISK (<1.8)) • Piotroski F-Score 3/9
Dilution Drag (+1.28% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a LVWR Turnaround Squeeze
While LVWR currently carries a cautious 20/100 (E) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.
Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.
Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($1.41) and Max Pain ($0.69) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $5.79.
Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+1.28% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.
Why LVWR Stock dropped -26.67% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
LiveWire Group Inc. (LVWR) dropped -26.67% to $0.66, trading at 2% of its 52-week range ($0.65 – $5.51). Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-35% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 2% of its 52-week range ($0.65 – $5.51) with RSI-14 at 36.1 (NEUTRAL RANGE).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±12.5% around $0.66 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable E (Strong Sell) backed by 0% gross margin and $0 annual free cash flow.
Stock Titan report covering LiveWire Group Inc. (LVWR) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Moomoo report covering LiveWire Group Inc. (LVWR) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
kalkine.ca report covering LiveWire Group Inc. (LVWR) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
MarketBeat report covering LiveWire Group Inc. (LVWR) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Simply Wall St report covering LiveWire Group Inc. (LVWR) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Kalkine Media report covering LiveWire Group Inc. (LVWR) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
MarketBeat report covering LiveWire Group Inc. (LVWR) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Gainers INNEOVA Holdings (NASDAQ:INEO) shares increased by 18.1% to $0.63 during Friday's after-market session. The market value of their outstanding shares is at $9.2 million. Ruanyun Edai Technology
US session market movers: NUBURU led gainers at 125.0% while GameStop's GME.W fell 48.11% among the biggest losers.
Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring LVWR)
- ✓Walkthrough of LVWR's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
- ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
- ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
LVWR Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
vs. -3.6% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on LVWR today. View full Setup Ledger →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for LVWR. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (LVWR)
1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (LVWR vs. FOXF, HOG, INEO, LKQ)
Industry: Motor Vehicles (8 Tracked Issuers)Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, LiveWire Group Inc. (LVWR) ranks #990 by composite RQD confidence (20/100, grade E) and #705 by equity capitalization ($184.9M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, LKQ leads on earnings valuation at 7.5x trailing P/E, while HOG leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 18.0% ROIC and 23.9% gross margin. HOG currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 75/100 (B) compared with LVWR at 20/100 (E).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LVWR
ACTIVE
LiveWire Group Inc. | E | 20/100 | — | -17.3% | -35.0% | -26.67% | $184.9M | Benchmark Subject |
| FOXF Fox Factory Holding Corp. | D- | 39/100 | — | 30.2% | -35.0% | -2.08% | $686.4M | /foxf-vs-lvwr → |
| HOG Harley-Davidson Inc. | B | 75/100 | 9.3x | 23.9% | 18.0% | +2.93% | $3.16B | /hog-vs-lvwr → |
| INEO INNEOVA Holdings Limited (Class A) | D | 44/100 | — | 19.2% | -1.0% | -7.00% | $9.2M | /ineo-vs-lvwr → |
| LKQ LKQ Corporation | D+ | 56/100 | 7.5x | 38.6% | 8.5% | +2.54% | $4.58B | /lkq-vs-lvwr → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001898795In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), LiveWire Group Inc. (LVWR) reported GAAP revenue of $25.7M (-3.6% vs. FY2024 revenue of $26.6M , and -32.5% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$75.1M, operating cash flow of -$53.5M, and free cash flow of -$57.4M (+43.7% YoY). On the balance sheet, LVWR closed FY2025 with $146.4M in total assets against $74.2M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 0.20, Piotroski F-Score: 3/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $25.7M | -$75.1M | -$53.5M | -$57.4M | $146.4M | $74.2M |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-31 | $26.6M | -$93.9M | -$93.9M | -$101.9M | $148.0M | $0 |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-12-31 | $38.0M | -$109.5M | -$83.5M | -$83.5M | — | — |
3. LVWR Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs LVWR stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-02, LiveWire Group Inc. (NYSE: LVWR) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 20/100 at a spot price of $0.66 (-26.67% 1D, market cap $184.9M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 5/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 3/20, Executive Insider Alignment 5/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 4/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, LVWR ranks #990 in composite RQD confidence.
How does LVWR compare to FOXF and HOG in the Consumer Discretionary sector?
Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Motor Vehicles), LVWR carries a Roarable E (20/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of -17.3%, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, FOXF (Fox Factory Holding Corp.) holds a D- grade (39/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $686.4M) and HOG (Harley-Davidson Inc.) posts a B grade (75/100 RQD, P/E 9.3x, ROIC 18.0%, cap $3.16B). Among the 5-stock peer group, LKQ leads on earnings multiple (7.5x) while HOG leads on capital efficiency (18.0% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for LVWR?
Per LVWR's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001898795), LiveWire Group Inc. generated $25.7M in revenue (-3.6% YoY), -$75.1M in net income, and -$57.4M in free cash flow against $146.4M in total assets and $74.2M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is LVWR trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
LVWR last traded at $0.66 (-26.67% on volume of 660,103 shares), positioning the stock -53.19% below its 50-day simple moving average ($1.41) and -57.14% below its 200-day simple moving average ($1.54). Across its 52-week range of $0.65 to $5.51, LVWR sits at the 0.2% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 36.1 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($1.00 to $0.74).
LVWR Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index
100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FREDWhy is LVWR stock moving today?
Why LVWR Stock dropped -26.67% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-35% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
LVWR — LiveWire Group Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor
Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor
Per the Roarable RQD rating, LVWR carries an RQD Score of 20 with a letter grade of E, labeled "Roarable Strong Sell — Forensic Risk / Avoid." The five pillars are:
- Fundamental Cash Engine: 5 / 20. Reported ROIC is -35% and FCF yield is 0%. For a prospective investor, this means the business is not currently generating returns on capital or free cash flow that would support valuation on cash-flow grounds.
- Whale 13F Flow: 3 / 20. The pillar reflects institutional accumulation and options positioning. Per the source, it scores weakly, so institutional flow offers little support to the thesis.
- Insider Conviction: 3 / 20. The pillar reflects SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow. The weak score indicates insider and disclosed-trader activity is not a source of confidence.
- Macro Regime Fit: 4 / 20. Beta is 1.0 and the pillar cites sector sensitivity. The stock's exposure to market and sector moves is not offset by a favorable regime read in the source.
- Forensic Balance Sheet: 5 / 20. Altman Z is 0.2, Piotroski F is 3/9, and Debt/Equity is 1.61. These metrics point to elevated distress and balance-sheet risk.
Investor implications: upside drivers within the source data are limited to a depressed share price (price 0.9, down -43.74%) that could in principle reverse; however, the forensic and cash-engine pillars make valuation hard to anchor, and the negative margins (operating -60%, net -60%, gross -17.3%) mean a recovery case is not evidenced in the data. The rating is an analytical assessment, not personalized advice.
Financial Trend
| Period | Revenue | Operating Income | Net Income | EPS | FCF | Cash | Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY 2025 | $25.7M | $-75.5M | $-75.1M | N/A | $-57.4M | $82.8M | $74.2M |
| FY 2024 | $26.6M | $-110.4M | $-93.9M | N/A | $-101.9M | $64.4M | $0.0M |
| FY 2023 | $38.0M | $-116.0M | $-109.5M | N/A | $-83.5M | N/A | N/A |
Per the SEC financials, revenue fell from $38.0M (FY 2023) to $25.7M (FY 2025) while operating losses persisted in every reported period. Per the Market Data section, operating margin is -60% and net margin is -60%. ROIC is -35%, per the Roarable RQD rating and market data. Altman Z-Score is 0.2 and Piotroski F-Score is 3/9, per the Roarable RQD forensic pillar. Debt/Equity is 1.61 per the same pillar, and FY 2025 cash of $82.8M exceeds reported debt of $74.2M per the SEC financials.
Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis
Per the Recent News & Catalysts feed:
- RISK WATCH (RED): A Seeking Alpha report headlined that the company "warns that it may not survive," published 1h before the data timestamp.
- RISK WATCH (RED): A Simply Wall St report tied the stock decline to Q3 earnings and restructuring fears.
- MARKET WIRE (YELLOW): Items from Stock Titan, Moomoo, kalkine.ca, and MarketBeat cover market action, including a report that the stock broke below its 200-day moving average and a report describing the stock as under pressure before third-quarter earnings.
Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, sector is Consumer Discretionary, industry is Motor Vehicles, supply chain is NONE, butterfly links are empty, and proprietary signals are empty.
Open Questions
- What is the company's cash runway given FY 2025 FCF of $-57.4M against cash of $82.8M, and what does the "may not survive" warning rest on?
- What are the specific terms, timing, and scope of the restructuring referenced in the news feed?
- What are the drivers behind the revenue decline from $38.0M (FY 2023) to $25.7M (FY 2025)?
- Why are P/E, EPS, and EV/EBITDA unavailable, and what valuation basis applies given negative earnings?
- What is the composition and maturity of the $74.2M debt balance?
LVWR Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire
Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for LiveWire Group Inc. (LVWR) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below
Seeking Alpha report covering LiveWire Group Inc. (LVWR) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Stock Titan report covering LiveWire Group Inc. (LVWR) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Moomoo report covering LiveWire Group Inc. (LVWR) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
kalkine.ca report covering LiveWire Group Inc. (LVWR) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
MarketBeat report covering LiveWire Group Inc. (LVWR) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Simply Wall St report covering LiveWire Group Inc. (LVWR) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Kalkine Media report covering LiveWire Group Inc. (LVWR) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
MarketBeat report covering LiveWire Group Inc. (LVWR) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
LVWR Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $0.66?
🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is LVWR (E • RQD 20/100) a Buy at $0.90?
Welcome to the LVWR (LiveWire Group Inc.) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 20/100 (Roarable Strong Sell — Forensic Risk / Avoid) in Motor Vehicles. Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.
Pump the brakes on LVWR — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds
Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on LVWR, but look at what you are paying: current EV/EBITDA multiples with -17.3% gross margins. Unless LiveWire Group Inc. expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.
LVWR cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here
Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on LVWR, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Motor Vehicles and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $0.90 (52-wk range $0.65 - $5.51), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.