Main Street Capital Corporation (MAIN) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$55.26 -1.14% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $55.04

Main Street Capital Corporation (MAIN) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 52/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID Cap $5.23B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on MAIN Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is MAIN stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-02, Main Street Capital Corporation (NYSE: MAIN) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 52/100 at a spot price of $55.26 (-1.14% 1D, market cap $5.23B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 9/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 12/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, MAIN ranks #616 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does MAIN compare to HASI and CET in the Financials sector?
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Within the Financials sector (Finance/Investors Services), MAIN carries a Roarable D+ (52/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 10.6x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 16.5%. By comparison, HASI (HA Sustainable Infrastructure Capital Inc.) holds a C+ grade (68/100 RQD, P/E 26.1x, ROIC 6.9%, cap $4.82B) and CET (Central Securities Corporation) posts a D+ grade (55/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $13.66B). Among the 5-stock peer group, MAIN leads on earnings multiple (10.6x) while MAIN leads on capital efficiency (16.5% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MAIN?
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Per MAIN's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001396440), Main Street Capital Corporation generated $0 in revenue, $493.4M in net income, and -$45.7M in free cash flow against $5.68B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $55.04 (-0.40%)🧬 Disciplined Float (-0.32% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 9/20 (D) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 52/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-1.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 50.1% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+
025507510052
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk D
Cash (9)Whales (12)SEC (10)Macro (8)CEO (13)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-2.7% Base Target
$68 Bull$54 Base$42 Bear
📬 FREE MAIN RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for MAIN)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±3.6%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (52/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY MAIN SCORES 52/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+13/20 pts (25% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 65% Net Buy • Disciplined Float (-0.32% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+12/20 pts (23% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±3.6% realized swing band)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit8/20 pts (-12 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (58.7) create a -12 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
44
Grade D$53.66-1% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
47
Grade D$53.15+0.4% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
49
Grade D$53.34+3.6% Next Q
Current
52
Grade D+$55.26-1.1% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: D (44) → D+ (52)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a MAIN Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While MAIN currently carries a cautious 52/100 (D+) rating due to Macro Regime Fit (8/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($55.65) and Max Pain ($58.02) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $68.49.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (-0.32% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $MAIN• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “MAIN Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
RSI-14 MOMENTUMBULLISH MOMENTUM
58.730 Oversold · 70 Hot
ALTMAN-Z SHIELDFORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)
3.80>3.0 Fortress Safe
PIOTROSKI F-SCOREWEAK QUALITY (1–4)
1 / 99-Pt Accounting
52-WEEK LASER RANGE39% OF RANGE
L: $49$55.26H: $65
1. Money & Cash Health● WEAK
Are profits real cash in the bank?

Weak cash conversion or heavy valuation strain compared to actual cash earned.

Factor Grade: DRQD 9 / 20
2. Big Money & Insiders● NEUTRAL
Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Big funds and company insiders are mostly holding steady without aggressive buying or panic selling.

Factor Grade: CRQD 25 / 40
3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WARNING
SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

High sensitivity to tight interest rates or new risk warnings added to recent SEC annual filings.

Factor Grade: DRQD 18 / 40
MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning on MAIN

Cash & Moat Bull AI
ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model
BEARISH (45)

16.5% ROIC with 42.0% gross margin and -0.87% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI
10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard
BEARISH (50)

Altman-Z 4.20 and Piotroski 1/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI
Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq
NEUTRAL (55)

25/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 8/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like MAIN
  • ✓Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.
Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong
  • !Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.
  • !Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring MAIN)

  • ✓Walkthrough of MAIN's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?
MAIN // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -0.90%▲ ASCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-02O $54.61H $55.90L $54.61C $55.26VOL 499.2K
RES: $61.10SUP: $52.78SMA50: $55.65SMA200: $55.45
$60.93$57.69$54.44$51.19$47.94RES $61.10SUP $52.78$55.262026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-172026-11-02
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

MAIN Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
0.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on MAIN today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for MAIN. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for MAIN today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (MAIN)

Financials Rank #616 of 1096 ⚔️ HASI vs MAIN Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (MAIN vs. HASI, CET, KYN, BCAT)

Industry: Finance/Investors Services (37 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Main Street Capital Corporation (MAIN) ranks #616 by composite RQD confidence (52/100, grade D+) and #269 by equity capitalization ($5.23B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, MAIN leads on earnings valuation at 10.6x trailing P/E, while MAIN leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 16.5% ROIC and — gross margin. HASI currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 68/100 (C+) compared with MAIN at 52/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
MAIN ACTIVE
Main Street Capital Corporation
D+ 52/100 10.6x — 16.5% -1.14% $5.23B Benchmark Subject
HASI
HA Sustainable Infrastructure Capital Inc.
C+ 68/100 26.1x — 6.9% -0.80% $4.82B /hasi-vs-main →
CET
Central Securities Corporation
D+ 55/100 — — — -1.50% $13.66B /cet-vs-main →
KYN
Kayne Anderson Energy Infrastructure Fund Inc.
D+ 57/100 — — — +0.95% $2.00B /kyn-vs-main →
BCAT
BlackRock Capital Allocation Term Trust of
D 44/100 — — — -0.14% $1.49B /bcat-vs-main →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001396440

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Main Street Capital Corporation (MAIN) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of $493.4M, operating cash flow of -$45.7M, and free cash flow of -$45.7M (+47.5% YoY). On the balance sheet, MAIN closed FY2025 with $5.68B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 1/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $0 $493.4M -$45.7M -$45.7M $5.68B —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $0 $508.1M -$87.1M -$87.1M $5.12B —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $0 $428.4M $285.3M $285.3M — —

3. MAIN Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is MAIN stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-02, Main Street Capital Corporation (NYSE: MAIN) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 52/100 at a spot price of $55.26 (-1.14% 1D, market cap $5.23B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 9/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 12/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, MAIN ranks #616 in composite RQD confidence.

How does MAIN compare to HASI and CET in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Finance/Investors Services), MAIN carries a Roarable D+ (52/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 10.6x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 16.5%. By comparison, HASI (HA Sustainable Infrastructure Capital Inc.) holds a C+ grade (68/100 RQD, P/E 26.1x, ROIC 6.9%, cap $4.82B) and CET (Central Securities Corporation) posts a D+ grade (55/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $13.66B). Among the 5-stock peer group, MAIN leads on earnings multiple (10.6x) while MAIN leads on capital efficiency (16.5% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MAIN?

Per MAIN's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001396440), Main Street Capital Corporation generated $0 in revenue, $493.4M in net income, and -$45.7M in free cash flow against $5.68B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is MAIN trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

MAIN last traded at $55.26 (-1.14% on volume of 447,942 shares), positioning the stock -0.70% below its 50-day simple moving average ($55.65) and -0.34% below its 200-day simple moving average ($55.45). Across its 52-week range of $48.95 to $65.23, MAIN sits at the 38.8% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 58.7 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±3.6% ($53.27 to $57.25).

MAIN Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Should I buy, hold, or sell MAIN stock right now?

Main Street Capital Corporation (MAIN) currently earns a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell — SELL) with 52/100 RQD Confidence. Stretched risk/reward at 11x P/E (17% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.

What is MAIN's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

MAIN's 12-month base price target is $53.77 (range $41.94 to $68.49), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 52/100 (D+) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

MAIN — Main Street Capital Corporation: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T15:20:36Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, MAIN scores 52 out of 100 (letter grade D+, verdict "Roarable Sell — Weak Fundamentals / Trim"). The five pillars are: Fundamental Cash Engine at 9 / 20 (ROIC 16.5%; FCF yield -0.87%), Whale 13F Flow at 12 / 20 (institutional accumulation and options positioning), Insider Conviction at 13 / 20 (SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow), Macro Regime Fit at 8 / 20 (Beta 1.0; sector sensitivity), and Forensic Balance Sheet at 10 / 20 (Altman Z 2.5; Piotroski F 1/9; Debt/Equity 0.5). The weakest pillars are Macro Regime Fit and the Fundamental Cash Engine, which the rating attributes to a negative free-cash-flow yield despite a 16.5% ROIC. The Piotroski F-Score of 1/9 is the lowest-scoring forensic element in the source data. For a prospective investor, the rating points to a valuation case that depends more on the dividend yield and the reported ROIC than on current cash generation. Per the market data section, the stock trades at a P/E of 10.6 (TTM) and 9.9 (forward), which the investor would need to weigh against the rating's cautionary read on cash flow and balance-sheet strength.

Financial Trend

PeriodRevenueOperating IncomeNet IncomeEPSFCFCashDebt
FY 2025$0.0M$0.0M$493.4MN/A$-45.7M$42.0MN/A
FY 2024$0.0M$0.0M$508.1MN/A$-87.1M$78.3MN/A
FY 2023$0.0M$0.0M$428.4MN/A$285.3MN/AN/A

Per the SEC financials, reported revenue and operating income are $0.0M in each period, and the gross, operating, and net margin fields in the market data are each 0%. Net income was $493.4M in FY 2025, $508.1M in FY 2024, and $428.4M in FY 2023, while free cash flow was negative in the two most recent periods. Per the market data, ROIC is 16.5% and the Altman Z-Score is 2.5. Per the Roarable RQD rating, the Piotroski F-Score is 1/9 and the Debt/Equity ratio is 0.5. The source data does not include a debt figure for any period, so the balance-sheet posture can only be assessed through the ratios provided.

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

Per the recent news section, the headline "Main Street Capital Reports Preliminary Q3 2026 Earnings Estimates as NAV Rises for 17th Consecutive Quarter" is flagged RED / RISK WATCH, while the remaining five items are flagged YELLOW / MARKET WIRE. The second item reports lower estimated Q3 net investment income alongside higher NAV. The third item covers a preliminary estimate of third quarter 2026 operating results. The fourth item reports a 13F-style reduction, with Childress Capital Advisors LLC shares sold. The fifth item reports a $500 million note sale that closes with the company planning to repay debt with the proceeds. The sixth item reports a public offering of $500 million of 6.55% notes due 2030. Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, the supply chain is listed as NONE, with no butterfly links and no proprietary signals.

Butterfly Effect: 2nd-Order Supply-Chain & Sector Ripples

Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, there are no upstream or downstream links, no sector-correlation entries beyond the Financials classification, and no proprietary signals. Not available in source data for upstream/downstream dependencies. Not available in source data for sector correlations. Not available in source data for 2nd-order bottlenecks.

Open Questions

  • What are the specific figures behind the preliminary Q3 2026 net investment income estimate that the news section describes as lower?
  • What is the reported debt balance in each period, given that the financials show N/A for debt throughout?
  • What explains the negative free cash flow in FY 2025 and FY 2024 when reported net income is positive?
  • How does the 16.5% ROIC reconcile with the 0% operating margin and zero reported revenue in the market data?
  • Which 13F holders and insider filers are reflected in the rating's whale and insider pillars, given that the holders section is empty?

MAIN Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Main Street Capital Corporation (MAIN) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to MAIN Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

MAIN Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $55.26?

🐂 50% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON MAIN 🐻 50% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on MAIN:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk ⚖️ DEBATE HOST 🎯 Target: $60.37 (+8.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is MAIN (D+ • RQD 52/100) a Buy at $55.90?

Welcome to the MAIN (Main Street Capital Corporation) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 52/100 (Roarable Sell — Weak Fundamentals / Trim) in Finance/Investors Services. Bulls point to capital efficiency (16.5% ROIC), while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

SK SkepticalCFA Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $46.40 (-17.0%)
Spot @ $55.90

Pump the brakes on MAIN — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on MAIN, but look at what you are paying: 10.6x trailing P/E with tightening sector spreads. Unless Main Street Capital Corporation expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

TA TapeReader_Pro Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $64.29 (+15.0%)
Spot @ $55.90

MAIN cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on MAIN, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Finance/Investors Services and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $55.90 (52-wk range $48.95 - $65.23), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.

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