Stock Ratings / Financials / MAIN / earnings

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Main Street Capital Corporation (MAIN) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±3.6% Move

$55.26 -1.14% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $55.04

Main Street Capital Corporation (MAIN) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 52/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 52/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-1.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID Cap $5.23B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on MAIN Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is MAIN stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-02, Main Street Capital Corporation (NYSE: MAIN) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 52/100 at a spot price of $55.26 (-1.14% 1D, market cap $5.23B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 9/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 12/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, MAIN ranks #616 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does MAIN compare to HASI and CET in the Financials sector?

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Within the Financials sector (Finance/Investors Services), MAIN carries a Roarable D+ (52/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 10.6x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 16.5%. By comparison, HASI (HA Sustainable Infrastructure Capital Inc.) holds a C+ grade (68/100 RQD, P/E 26.1x, ROIC 6.9%, cap $4.82B) and CET (Central Securities Corporation) posts a D+ grade (55/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $13.66B). Among the 5-stock peer group, MAIN leads on earnings multiple (10.6x) while MAIN leads on capital efficiency (16.5% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MAIN?

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Per MAIN's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001396440), Main Street Capital Corporation generated $0 in revenue, $493.4M in net income, and -$45.7M in free cash flow against $5.68B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $55.04 (-0.40%)🧬 Disciplined Float (-0.32% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 9/20 (D) • 0% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 52/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-1.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 50.1% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk D

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-2.7% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for MAIN)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±3.6%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (52/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY MAIN SCORES 52/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+13/20 pts (25% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 65% Net Buy • Disciplined Float (-0.32% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+12/20 pts (23% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±3.6% realized swing band)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit8/20 pts (-12 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (58.7) create a -12 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade D$53.66-1% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade D$53.15+0.4% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade D$53.34+3.6% Next Q

Current

Grade D+$55.26-1.1% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: D (44) → D+ (52)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a MAIN Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While MAIN currently carries a cautious 52/100 (D+) rating due to Macro Regime Fit (8/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($55.65) and Max Pain ($58.02) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $68.49.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (-0.32% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $MAIN• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “MAIN Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 52%NO 48%Trade / Inspect Odds →

NEXT EST. WINDOW: Dec 30, 2026 (~57 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±3.6% Swing Band

±$1.99 Expected Swing

MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

MAIN Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 52/100

Trailing EPS: $5.28 • YoY Revenue Growth: 12.4%

Model Bullish Setup (52/100)Model Risk Weight (48/100)

Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).

LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

Period	Filed	Revenue	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	Gross Margin
FY 2025	2025-12-31	$0	$493.4M	-$45.7M	52%
FY 2024	2024-12-31	$0	$508.1M	-$87.1M	52%
FY 2023	2023-12-31	$0	$428.4M	$285.3M	52%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring MAIN)

✓Walkthrough of MAIN's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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MAIN // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -0.90%▲ ASCENDING CHANNEL

2026-11-02O $54.61H $55.90L $54.61C $55.26VOL 499.2K

RES: $61.10SUP: $52.78SMA50: $55.65SMA200: $55.45

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

MAIN Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 MAIN Butterfly Map → + Track MAIN →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

0.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on MAIN today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for MAIN. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for MAIN today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (MAIN)

Financials Rank #616 of 1096 ⚔️ HASI vs MAIN Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (MAIN vs. HASI, CET, KYN, BCAT)

Industry: Finance/Investors Services (37 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Main Street Capital Corporation (MAIN) ranks #616 by composite RQD confidence (52/100, grade D+) and #269 by equity capitalization ($5.23B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, MAIN leads on earnings valuation at 10.6x trailing P/E, while MAIN leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 16.5% ROIC and — gross margin. HASI currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 68/100 (C+) compared with MAIN at 52/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
MAIN ACTIVE Main Street Capital Corporation	D+	52/100	10.6x	—	16.5%	-1.14%	$5.23B	Benchmark Subject
HASI HA Sustainable Infrastructure Capital Inc.	C+	68/100	26.1x	—	6.9%	-0.80%	$4.82B	/hasi-vs-main →
CET Central Securities Corporation	D+	55/100	—	—	—	-1.50%	$13.66B	/cet-vs-main →
KYN Kayne Anderson Energy Infrastructure Fund Inc.	D+	57/100	—	—	—	+0.95%	$2.00B	/kyn-vs-main →
BCAT BlackRock Capital Allocation Term Trust of	D	44/100	—	—	—	-0.14%	$1.49B	/bcat-vs-main →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001396440

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Main Street Capital Corporation (MAIN) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of $493.4M, operating cash flow of -$45.7M, and free cash flow of -$45.7M (+47.5% YoY). On the balance sheet, MAIN closed FY2025 with $5.68B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 1/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$0	$493.4M	-$45.7M	-$45.7M	$5.68B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$0	$508.1M	-$87.1M	-$87.1M	$5.12B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$0	$428.4M	$285.3M	$285.3M	—	—

3. MAIN Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is MAIN stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does MAIN compare to HASI and CET in the Financials sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MAIN?

Where is MAIN trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

MAIN last traded at $55.26 (-1.14% on volume of 447,942 shares), positioning the stock -0.70% below its 50-day simple moving average ($55.65) and -0.34% below its 200-day simple moving average ($55.45). Across its 52-week range of $48.95 to $65.23, MAIN sits at the 38.8% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 58.7 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±3.6% ($53.27 to $57.25).

MAIN Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

When is MAIN's next earnings date?

Based on SEC filing cadence, Main Street Capital Corporation (MAIN)'s next quarterly reporting window is estimated around Dec 30, 2026.

How much is MAIN stock expected to move on earnings?

Volatility modeling currently projects a ±3.6% event move for MAIN, spanning a range between $53.27 and $57.25.

Direct Sub-Reports: MAIN RQD Cockpit MAIN 12M Forecast MAIN Earnings & Move MAIN Dividends & DRIP MAIN Insiders & 13F MAIN Whale Options MAIN Profit Sankey MAIN News & Why

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 52/100 (D+) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

MAIN — Main Street Capital Corporation: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5

As of: 2026-11-02T15:20:36Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, MAIN scores 52 out of 100 (letter grade D+, verdict "Roarable Sell — Weak Fundamentals / Trim"). The five pillars are: Fundamental Cash Engine at 9 / 20 (ROIC 16.5%; FCF yield -0.87%), Whale 13F Flow at 12 / 20 (institutional accumulation and options positioning), Insider Conviction at 13 / 20 (SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow), Macro Regime Fit at 8 / 20 (Beta 1.0; sector sensitivity), and Forensic Balance Sheet at 10 / 20 (Altman Z 2.5; Piotroski F 1/9; Debt/Equity 0.5). The weakest pillars are Macro Regime Fit and the Fundamental Cash Engine, which the rating attributes to a negative free-cash-flow yield despite a 16.5% ROIC. The Piotroski F-Score of 1/9 is the lowest-scoring forensic element in the source data. For a prospective investor, the rating points to a valuation case that depends more on the dividend yield and the reported ROIC than on current cash generation. Per the market data section, the stock trades at a P/E of 10.6 (TTM) and 9.9 (forward), which the investor would need to weigh against the rating's cautionary read on cash flow and balance-sheet strength.

Financial Trend

Period	Revenue	Operating Income	Net Income	EPS	FCF	Cash	Debt
FY 2025	$0.0M	$0.0M	$493.4M	N/A	$-45.7M	$42.0M	N/A
FY 2024	$0.0M	$0.0M	$508.1M	N/A	$-87.1M	$78.3M	N/A
FY 2023	$0.0M	$0.0M	$428.4M	N/A	$285.3M	N/A	N/A

Per the SEC financials, reported revenue and operating income are $0.0M in each period, and the gross, operating, and net margin fields in the market data are each 0%. Net income was $493.4M in FY 2025, $508.1M in FY 2024, and $428.4M in FY 2023, while free cash flow was negative in the two most recent periods. Per the market data, ROIC is 16.5% and the Altman Z-Score is 2.5. Per the Roarable RQD rating, the Piotroski F-Score is 1/9 and the Debt/Equity ratio is 0.5. The source data does not include a debt figure for any period, so the balance-sheet posture can only be assessed through the ratios provided.

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

Per the recent news section, the headline "Main Street Capital Reports Preliminary Q3 2026 Earnings Estimates as NAV Rises for 17th Consecutive Quarter" is flagged RED / RISK WATCH, while the remaining five items are flagged YELLOW / MARKET WIRE. The second item reports lower estimated Q3 net investment income alongside higher NAV. The third item covers a preliminary estimate of third quarter 2026 operating results. The fourth item reports a 13F-style reduction, with Childress Capital Advisors LLC shares sold. The fifth item reports a $500 million note sale that closes with the company planning to repay debt with the proceeds. The sixth item reports a public offering of $500 million of 6.55% notes due 2030. Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, the supply chain is listed as NONE, with no butterfly links and no proprietary signals.

Butterfly Effect: 2nd-Order Supply-Chain & Sector Ripples

Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, there are no upstream or downstream links, no sector-correlation entries beyond the Financials classification, and no proprietary signals. Not available in source data for upstream/downstream dependencies. Not available in source data for sector correlations. Not available in source data for 2nd-order bottlenecks.

Open Questions

What are the specific figures behind the preliminary Q3 2026 net investment income estimate that the news section describes as lower?
What is the reported debt balance in each period, given that the financials show N/A for debt throughout?
What explains the negative free cash flow in FY 2025 and FY 2024 when reported net income is positive?
How does the 16.5% ROIC reconcile with the 0% operating margin and zero reported revenue in the market data?
Which 13F holders and insider filers are reflected in the rating's whale and insider pillars, given that the holders section is empty?

MAIN Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Main Street Capital Corporation (MAIN) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to MAIN Debate Forum (3) ↓

🔴 RISK WATCH Yahoo Finance • 10h ago

Main Street Capital Reports Preliminary Q3 2026 Earnings Estimates as NAV Rises for 17th Consecutive Quarter

Yahoo Finance report covering Main Street Capital Corporation (MAIN) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE www.marketscreener.com • 13h ago

Main Street Capital Estimates Lower Q3 Net Investment Income, Higher NAV

www.marketscreener.com report covering Main Street Capital Corporation (MAIN) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 16h ago

Main Street Announces Preliminary Estimate of Third Quarter 2026 Operating Results

Yahoo Finance report covering Main Street Capital Corporation (MAIN) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE MarketBeat • 19h ago

Main Street Capital Corporation $MAIN Shares Sold by Childress Capital Advisors LLC

MarketBeat report covering Main Street Capital Corporation (MAIN) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Stock Titan • 22h ago

A $500M note sale closes for Main Street Capital (MAIN), which plans to repay debt with the proceeds.

Stock Titan report covering Main Street Capital Corporation (MAIN) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE www.marketscreener.com • 1d ago

Main Street Prices Public Offering of $500 Million of 6.55% Notes due 2030

www.marketscreener.com report covering Main Street Capital Corporation (MAIN) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST Kalkine Media • 1d ago

What Is Supporting Net Asset Value Growth at Main Street Capital Corporation (NYSE:MAIN)?

Kalkine Media report covering Main Street Capital Corporation (MAIN) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST Pluang • 1d ago

Main Street Capital is the priciest BDC by P/B, justified by steady dividend growth and NAV gains.

Pluang report covering Main Street Capital Corporation (MAIN) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

MAIN Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $55.26?

🐂 50% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON MAIN 🐻 50% BEARISH CONVICTION

RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk ⚖️ DEBATE HOST 🎯 Target: $60.37 (+8.0%)

📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is MAIN (D+ • RQD 52/100) a Buy at $55.90?

Welcome to the MAIN (Main Street Capital Corporation) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 52/100 (Roarable Sell — Weak Fundamentals / Trim) in Finance/Investors Services. Bulls point to capital efficiency (16.5% ROIC), while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

SK SkepticalCFA Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $46.40 (-17.0%)

Spot @ $55.90

Pump the brakes on MAIN — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on MAIN, but look at what you are paying: 10.6x trailing P/E with tightening sector spreads. Unless Main Street Capital Corporation expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

TA TapeReader_Pro Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $64.29 (+15.0%)

Spot @ $55.90

MAIN cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on MAIN, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Finance/Investors Services and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $55.90 (52-wk range $48.95 - $65.23), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.