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Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / MAX / forecast
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MediaAlpha Inc. (Class A) (MAX) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$14.78 +0.20% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $14.76

MediaAlpha Inc. (Class A) (MAX) carries a Roarable Rating of C+ (Hold) with 69/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

ROARABLE C+ • HOLD / WATCH Cap $873.1M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on MAX Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is MAX stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, MediaAlpha Inc. (Class A) (NYSE: MAX) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 69/100 at a spot price of $14.78 (+0.20% 1D, market cap $873.1M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 15/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 17/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 12/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 9/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 16/20. Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, MAX ranks #173 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does MAX compare to PHR and QNST in the Consumer Discretionary sector?
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Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Business Services), MAX carries a Roarable C+ (69/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 32.6x, gross margin of 15.0%, and ROIC of 19.7%. By comparison, PHR (Phreesia Inc.) holds a D+ grade (56/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -2.0%, cap $772.2M) and QNST (QuinStreet Inc.) posts a B- grade (70/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 2.6%, cap $995.7M). Among the 5-stock peer group, CASS leads on earnings multiple (19.6x) while MAX leads on capital efficiency (19.7% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MAX?
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Per MAX's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001818383), MediaAlpha Inc. (Class A) generated $1.11B in revenue (+28.8% YoY), $25.6M in net income, and $65.3M in free cash flow against $383.8M in total assets and $131.6M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (15.0% gross margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $14.76 (-0.15%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 15/20 (B) • 5.9% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 69/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+2.0% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 57.3% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C+
025507510069
2-of-3 Quant Analysts Bullish
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw B+ · Rk D+
Cash (15)Whales (17)SEC (12)Macro (9)CEO (16)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+4.9% Base Target
$18 Bull$16 Base$12 Bear
📬 FREE MAX RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for MAX)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (69/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY MAX SCORES 69/100 (C+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+17/20 pts (25% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±12.5% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+16/20 pts (23% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 80% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit9/20 pts (-11 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (71.8) create a -11 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
61
Grade C$10.47+12.6% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
64
Grade C+$11.79-0.2% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
66
Grade B-$11.77+25.6% Next Q
Current
69
Grade C+$14.78+2% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C (61) → C+ (69)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the MAX Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 69/100 (C+) score, MAX faces multiple-compression risk if 32.6x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($11.34) or 200D SMA ($10.66) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($15.51) toward Bear Floor ($12.10).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $MAX• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “MAX Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 69%NO 31%Trade / Inspect Odds →
INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your MAX Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $14.78: 676.6 sh
$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000
12M Bear Case FloorTarget $12.10
$8,187
$-1,813 (-18.1%)
12M Consensus BaseTarget $15.51
$10,494
+$494 (+4.9%)
12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $18.30
$12,382
+$2,382 (+23.8%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (28 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100
● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 2
Wall Street FirmStance12M Target1Y AccuracyTrack Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity DeskHOLD$1674%A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage LeadBUY$1769%B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap ResearchHOLD$1458%C
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (MAX Tape Review)

  • ✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
  • ✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
  • ✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?
Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena
MAX // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +66.25%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-11-03O $14.13H $14.78L $14.13C $14.78VOL 2.02M
RES: $14.87SUP: $9.35SMA50: $11.34SMA200: $10.66
$15.36$13.34$11.32$9.30$7.28RES $14.87SUP $9.35$14.782026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

MAX Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 MAX Butterfly Map → + Track MAX →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
25.2%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +28.8% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on MAX today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for MAX. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for MAX today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (MAX)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #173 of 1009 ⚔️ PHR vs MAX Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (MAX vs. PHR, QNST, AHG, CASS)

Industry: Business Services (88 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, MediaAlpha Inc. (Class A) (MAX) ranks #173 by composite RQD confidence (69/100, grade C+) and #524 by equity capitalization ($873.1M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, CASS leads on earnings valuation at 19.6x trailing P/E, while MAX leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 19.7% ROIC and 15.0% gross margin. QNST currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 70/100 (B-) compared with MAX at 69/100 (C+).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
MAX ACTIVE
MediaAlpha Inc. (Class A)
C+ 69/100 32.6x 15.0% 19.7% +0.20% $873.1M Benchmark Subject
PHR
Phreesia Inc.
D+ 56/100 — — -2.0% 0.00% $772.2M /phr-vs-max →
QNST
QuinStreet Inc.
B- 70/100 — 10.1% 2.6% +0.92% $995.7M /qnst-vs-max →
AHG
Akso Health Group ADS
E 32/100 — -0.1% — +4.17% $1.08B /ahg-vs-max →
CASS
Cass Information Systems Inc
C 62/100 19.6x — 14.5% +2.56% $675.4M /cass-vs-max →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001818383 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), MediaAlpha Inc. (Class A) (MAX) reported GAAP revenue of $1.11B (+28.8% vs. FY2024 revenue of $864.7M , and +186.9% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $25.6M, operating cash flow of $65.6M, and free cash flow of $65.3M (+43.1% YoY). On the balance sheet, MAX closed FY2025 with $383.8M in total assets against $131.6M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 2.64, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $1.11B $25.6M $65.6M $65.3M $383.8M $131.6M
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $864.7M $16.6M $45.9M $45.6M $262.4M $153.6M
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $388.1M -$40.4M $20.2M $20.2M — —

3. MAX Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is MAX stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, MediaAlpha Inc. (Class A) (NYSE: MAX) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 69/100 at a spot price of $14.78 (+0.20% 1D, market cap $873.1M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 15/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 17/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 12/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 9/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 16/20. Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, MAX ranks #173 in composite RQD confidence.

How does MAX compare to PHR and QNST in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Business Services), MAX carries a Roarable C+ (69/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 32.6x, gross margin of 15.0%, and ROIC of 19.7%. By comparison, PHR (Phreesia Inc.) holds a D+ grade (56/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -2.0%, cap $772.2M) and QNST (QuinStreet Inc.) posts a B- grade (70/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 2.6%, cap $995.7M). Among the 5-stock peer group, CASS leads on earnings multiple (19.6x) while MAX leads on capital efficiency (19.7% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MAX?

Per MAX's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001818383), MediaAlpha Inc. (Class A) generated $1.11B in revenue (+28.8% YoY), $25.6M in net income, and $65.3M in free cash flow against $383.8M in total assets and $131.6M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (15.0% gross margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is MAX trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

MAX last traded at $14.78 (+0.20% on volume of 1,943,142 shares), positioning the stock +30.34% above its 50-day simple moving average ($11.34) and +38.65% above its 200-day simple moving average ($10.66). Across its 52-week range of $7.09 to $14.87, MAX sits at the 98.8% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 71.8 (OVERBOUGHT (>70)) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($12.93 to $16.63).

Direct Sub-Reports: MAX RQD Cockpit MAX 12M Forecast MAX Earnings & Move MAX Dividends & DRIP MAX Insiders & 13F MAX Whale Options MAX Profit Sankey MAX News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 69/100 (C+) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

MAX — MediaAlpha Inc. (Class A): What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

MediaAlpha Inc. (Class A) (MAX) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 69/100, corresponding to a C+ letter grade (Roarable Hold) at a spot price of $14.78 (+0.20% 1D, market capitalization $873.1M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (15/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 19.7%, gross margin of 15.0%, operating margin of 2.0%, and free cash flow yield of 7.80%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (17/20) + Insider Conviction (16/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (9/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (12/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 2.64, Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, and Debt/Equity of 8.50x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

. (Class A) is a NYSE-listed issuer in the Consumer Discretionary sector and Business Services industry. Per the market data, the company reports a gross margin of 15%. —: the products or services sold, the customer base, and the specific revenue model.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), MediaAlpha Inc. (Class A) (MAX) reported $1.11B in annual revenue (up from $864.7M in FY2024, +28.8% YoY) and $25.6M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($388.1M revenue, -$40.4M net income) through FY2025, MAX scaled operating cash flow to $65.6M and free cash flow to $65.3M, backed by $383.8M in total assets against $131.6M in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (C+ • RQD 69/100): Strong cash generator (15.0% gross margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 15/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 17/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $7.09 – $14.87 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Investors must weigh 32.6x trailing P/E and 41.1x EV/EBITDA against 2.0% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

The supply chain is recorded as "NONE" and the butterfly links list is empty. —: upstream suppliers, downstream customers, and sector correlation links.

  • Key Question #1: Can MAX sustain or expand its 2.0% operating margin and 19.7% ROIC against Business Services peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $1.11B and free cash flow of $65.3M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $131.6M in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is MAX's 27.4x forward P/E multiple to Consumer Discretionary capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

MAX Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for MediaAlpha Inc. (Class A) (MAX) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to MAX Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

MAX Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $14.78?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON MAX 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on MAX:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
MA MacroHawk_NYC RQD DEBATE OPENER • Cross-Asset Macro Desk 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $16.96 (+15.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Per the RQD rating, ROIC of 19.7% and a 7.8% FCF yield indicate efficient capital use and cash generation despite thin margins.

Per the RQD rating, ROIC of 19.7% and a 7.8% FCF yield indicate efficient capital use and cash generation despite thin margins.. When you look under the hood at MAX, Fundamental Cash Engine is 15/20 with 15.0% gross margins and 19.7% ROIC. Bears are staring in the rearview mirror while institutional 13F flow (17/20) has been quietly accumulating below $14.87. My 12M target is $16.96.

EarningsSniper 🐂 BULL

Both sides have a point here — MAX's 12/20 balance sheet score keeps downside contained, so the real swing factor next earnings call is backlog and FCF conversion.

RE RedlineAuditor RQD DEBATE OPENER • Accounting Quality Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $11.51 (-22.0%)
Spot @ $14.75

Per the market data, trailing P/E of 32.6 and EV/EBITDA of 41.1 price in substantial optimism against a 2% operating margin.

Here is the bear case nobody on the bull side wants to address on MAX: Per the market data, trailing P/E of 32.6 and EV/EBITDA of 41.1 price in substantial optimism against a 2% operating margin.. At 32.6x trailing P/E, even a small guidance miss in Business Services triggers a 12-15% air pocket.

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