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Moleculin Biotech Inc. (MBRX) Revenue-to-Profit Sankey Flow & SEC XBRL Financials

$8.32 +5.32% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $8.38

Moleculin Biotech Inc. (MBRX) carries a Roarable Rating of E (Strong Sell) with 34/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE E • RED ALERT Cap $8.3M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is MBRX stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Moleculin Biotech Inc. (NASDAQ: MBRX) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 34/100 at a spot price of $8.32 (+5.32% 1D, market cap $8.3M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 4/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 5/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 5/20. Across 1015 tracked Health Care issuers, MBRX ranks #652 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does MBRX compare to ENSC and CURX in the Health Care sector?
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Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), MBRX carries a Roarable E (34/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, ENSC (Ensysce Biosciences Inc.) holds a E grade (30/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $8.2M) and CURX (Curanex Pharmaceuticals Inc) posts a D- grade (37/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $8.1M). Among the 5-stock peer group, MBRX leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while MBRX leads on capital efficiency (-35.0% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MBRX?
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Per MBRX's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001659617), Moleculin Biotech Inc. generated $70.3M in revenue (-5.8% YoY), $33.6M in net income, and -$22.7M in free cash flow against $22.1M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
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INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $8.38 (+0.77%)🧬 Disciplined Float (+0.72% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 4/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (34/100 · E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-8.7% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • E
025507510034
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk D
Cash (4)Whales (5)SEC (10)Macro (10)CEO (5)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-10.8% Base Target
$111 Bull$7 Base$6 Bear
📬 FREE MBRX RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for MBRX)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (34/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY MBRX SCORES 34/100 (E) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+10/20 pts (29% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 3/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+10/20 pts (29% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 5% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 45.1 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Cash Engine Quality4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Capital intensity & 0% operating margin leave 16 pts on the table

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
42
Grade D$8.70-28.9% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
39
Grade E$6.19+49.8% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
37
Grade E$9.27-10.2% Next Q
Current
34
Grade E$8.32-8.7% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: D (42) → E (34)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a MBRX Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While MBRX currently carries a cautious 34/100 (E) rating due to Cash Engine Quality (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($10.70) and Max Pain ($8.74) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $111.30.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (+0.72% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $MBRX• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “MBRX Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 34%NO 66%Trade / Inspect Odds →
VISUAL REVENUE-TO-PROFIT SANKEY WATERFALL • FY 2025 (10-K)

How MBRX Turns Every Dollar of Sales Into Real Bottom-Line Profit

Free Cash Flow:$0 (0% FCF Margin)
Revenue$70.3MGross Profit $36.5M (52%)Cost of Sales $33.7MOp Profit $0 (0%)OpEx (R&D/SG&A) $36.5MNet Profit$33.6M (47.7%)Tax/Other $0

Multi-Year SEC EDGAR XBRL Revenue, Net Profit & Free Cash Flow Trajectory

■ Revenue■ Net Profit■ Free Cash Flow
FY23
Rev $83.0M
FY24
Rev $74.6M
FY25
Rev $70.3M
Fiscal YearRevenueGross MarginOp MarginNet ProfitFree Cash FlowROIC %
FY 2025$70.3M52%-35.7%$33.6M-$22.7M-45%
FY 2024$74.6M52%-35.7%$26.0M-$23.9M-45%
FY 2023$83.0M52%-35.7%$29.8M-$23.6M-35%
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring MBRX)

  • ✓Walkthrough of MBRX's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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MBRX // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -83.23%▲ RESISTANCE BREAKOUT
2026-11-03O $8.72H $8.72L $7.90C $8.32VOL 31.7K
RES: $7.25SUP: $4.66SMA50: $10.70SMA200: $39.63
$78.74$58.27$37.80$17.34$-3.13RES $7.25SUP $4.66$8.322026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

MBRX Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 MBRX Butterfly Map → + Track MBRX →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -5.8% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on MBRX today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for MBRX. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for MBRX today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (MBRX)

Health Care Rank #652 of 1015 ⚔️ ENSC vs MBRX Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (MBRX vs. ENSC, CURX, TCRT, INM)

Industry: Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations (489 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1015 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Moleculin Biotech Inc. (MBRX) ranks #652 by composite RQD confidence (34/100, grade E) and #907 by equity capitalization ($8.3M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, MBRX leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while MBRX leads on capital efficiency and profitability with -35.0% ROIC and — gross margin. INM currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 47/100 (D) compared with MBRX at 34/100 (E).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
MBRX ACTIVE
Moleculin Biotech Inc.
E 34/100 — — -35.0% +5.32% $8.3M Benchmark Subject
ENSC
Ensysce Biosciences Inc.
E 30/100 — — -35.0% -9.24% $8.2M /ensc-vs-mbrx →
CURX
Curanex Pharmaceuticals Inc
D- 37/100 — — -35.0% +13.37% $8.1M /curx-vs-mbrx →
TCRT
Alaunos Therapeutics Inc.
D- 36/100 — — -35.0% -10.26% $8.1M /tcrt-vs-mbrx →
INM
InMed Pharmaceuticals Inc.
D 47/100 — 34.5% -35.0% +1.88% $8.8M /inm-vs-mbrx →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001659617 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Moleculin Biotech Inc. (MBRX) reported GAAP revenue of $70.3M (-5.8% vs. FY2024 revenue of $74.6M , and -15.3% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $33.6M, operating cash flow of -$22.7M, and free cash flow of -$22.7M (+4.8% YoY). On the balance sheet, MBRX closed FY2025 with $22.1M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 3/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $70.3M $33.6M -$22.7M -$22.7M $22.1M —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $74.6M $26.0M -$23.9M -$23.9M $16.9M —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $83.0M $29.8M -$23.6M -$23.6M — —

3. MBRX Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is MBRX stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Moleculin Biotech Inc. (NASDAQ: MBRX) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 34/100 at a spot price of $8.32 (+5.32% 1D, market cap $8.3M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 4/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 5/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 5/20. Across 1015 tracked Health Care issuers, MBRX ranks #652 in composite RQD confidence.

How does MBRX compare to ENSC and CURX in the Health Care sector?

Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), MBRX carries a Roarable E (34/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, ENSC (Ensysce Biosciences Inc.) holds a E grade (30/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $8.2M) and CURX (Curanex Pharmaceuticals Inc) posts a D- grade (37/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $8.1M). Among the 5-stock peer group, MBRX leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while MBRX leads on capital efficiency (-35.0% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MBRX?

Per MBRX's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001659617), Moleculin Biotech Inc. generated $70.3M in revenue (-5.8% YoY), $33.6M in net income, and -$22.7M in free cash flow against $22.1M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is MBRX trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

MBRX last traded at $8.32 (+5.32% on volume of 13,142 shares), positioning the stock -22.24% below its 50-day simple moving average ($10.70) and -79.01% below its 200-day simple moving average ($39.63). Across its 52-week range of $3.13 to $106.00, MBRX sits at the 5.0% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 45.1 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($7.28 to $9.36).

Direct Sub-Reports: MBRX RQD Cockpit MBRX 12M Forecast MBRX Earnings & Move MBRX Dividends & DRIP MBRX Insiders & 13F MBRX Whale Options MBRX Profit Sankey MBRX News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 34/100 (E) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

MBRX — Moleculin Biotech Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Moleculin Biotech Inc. (MBRX) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 34/100, corresponding to a E letter grade (Roarable Strong Sell) at a spot price of $8.32 (+5.32% 1D, market capitalization $8.3M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (4/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of -35.0%, gross margin of —, operating margin of —, and free cash flow yield of —.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (5/20) + Insider Conviction (5/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (10/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (10/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 3/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Moleculin Biotech Inc. Is a NASDAQ-listed issuer classified under the Health Care sector and the Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations industry. Its market capitalization is $0.0B on a rounded basis, while the market data section reports $9.2M. Revenue is reported as — across the available periods. — describes its specific products, customers, or revenue model.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Moleculin Biotech Inc. (MBRX) reported $70.3M in annual revenue (up from $74.6M in FY2024, -5.8% YoY) and $33.6M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($83.0M revenue, $29.8M net income) through FY2025, MBRX scaled operating cash flow to -$22.7M and free cash flow to -$22.7M, backed by $22.1M in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (E • RQD 34/100): Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of — and institutional whale pillar of 5/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 4/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 5/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $3.13 – $106.00 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation against — operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

No upstream or downstream dependencies, sector correlations, or proprietary signal links are recorded. A prospective investor should note that this absence is a data gap rather than evidence of independence. — identifies any suppliers, partners, or customers. Beta of 1.0 per the market data section indicates market-level sensitivity, but no sector-specific ripple mapping is available in the source data.

  • Key Question #1: Can MBRX sustain or expand its — operating margin and -35.0% ROIC against Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $70.3M and free cash flow of -$22.7M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is MBRX's equity valuation to Health Care capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

MBRX Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Moleculin Biotech Inc. (MBRX) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to MBRX Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

MBRX Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $8.32?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON MBRX 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on MBRX:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
DE DeepValue_CFA RQD DEBATE OPENER • Institutional Buy-Side 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $10.35 (+31.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Reported cash rose from $4.3M to $8.9M across the most recent periods while Debt/Equity sits at 0.5 and the Altman Z-Score is 2.5.

Don't sleep on MBRX's setup in Health Care. Reported cash rose from $4.3M to $8.9M across the most recent periods while Debt/Equity sits at 0.5 and the Altman Z-Score is 2.5.. Beta of 1.0 means it moves fast when momentum turns, and the 5-pillar RQD gauge (34/100) backs up the fundamental quality.

CapAlloc_Nerd 🐂 BULL

@DeepValue_CFA Agree on the RQD 34/100 quality, though with 1.0 beta I'm scaling in with half-size at $7.90 and keeping dry powder in case we test $7.35.

RE RedlineAuditor RQD DEBATE OPENER • Accounting Quality Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $6.00 (-24.1%)
Spot @ $7.90

Operating income stayed negative in every reported year, ROIC is -35%, and free cash flow yield is 0%, leaving the RQD Fundamental Cash

Fading this rally in MBRX at $7.90. Operating income stayed negative in every reported year, ROIC is -35%, and free cash flow yield is 0%, leaving the RQD Fundamental Cash Engine pillar at 4/20.. With a beta of 1.0 and the stock sitting at $7.90 (52-wk range $3.13–$106.00), the easy multiple expansion is already priced in.

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