Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / MCD / earnings

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McDonald's Corporation (MCD) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±4% Move

$258.12 +0.29% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $258.87

McDonald's Corporation (MCD) earns a Roarable Rating of B (Buy) with 75/100 RQD Confidence. High-quality cash engine (steady margins, 26% return on capital) with steady institutional support. The company’s underlying cash engine and institutional positioning keep the composite score in the Green Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 75/100 (B) historically ranked in the Top 12% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+7.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 69.7% hit rate) →

ROARABLE B • BUY Cap $182.13B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on MCD Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is MCD stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-02, McDonald's Corporation (NYSE: MCD) is rated B (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 75/100 at a spot price of $258.12 (+0.29% 1D, market cap $182.13B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 18/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 12/20, Executive Insider Alignment 18/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 11/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, MCD ranks #60 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does MCD compare to SBUX and YUM in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

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Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Restaurants), MCD carries a Roarable B (75/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 21.3x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 26.2%. By comparison, SBUX (Starbucks Corporation) holds a C grade (65/100 RQD, P/E 64.8x, ROIC 24.1%, cap $120.28B) and YUM (Yum! Brands Inc.) posts a B grade (74/100 RQD, P/E 27.1x, ROIC 60.3%, cap $42.18B). Among the 5-stock peer group, MCD leads on earnings multiple (21.3x) while YUM leads on capital efficiency (60.3% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MCD?

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Per MCD's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000063908), McDonald's Corporation generated $26.89B in revenue (+3.7% YoY), $8.56B in net income, and $7.19B in free cash flow against $59.52B in total assets and $39.97B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $258.87 (+0.29%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 18/20 (A) • 26.7% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 75/100 (B) historically ranked in the Top 12% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+7.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 69.7% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERBUY • B

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw B+ · Rk B

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+7.7% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for MCD)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±4%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (75/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY MCD SCORES 75/100 (B) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+18/20 pts (24% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 26.7% FCF Margin ($7.19B FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+18/20 pts (24% of score)

Altman Z-Score 6.61 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 7/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit11/20 pts (-9 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (66.5) create a -9 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade B-$235.81+4.5% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade B$246.52+1.2% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade B$249.47+3.5% Next Q

Current

Grade B$258.12+7.4% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: B- (67) → B (75)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the MCD Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 75/100 (B) score, MCD faces multiple-compression risk if 21.3x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($247.70) or 200D SMA ($282.68) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($277.87) toward Bear Floor ($211.66).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $MCD• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “MCD Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 75%NO 25%Trade / Inspect Odds →

NEXT EST. WINDOW: Dec 30, 2026 (~57 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±4% Swing Band

±$10.32 Expected Swing

MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

MCD Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 75/100

Trailing EPS: $12.10 • YoY Revenue Growth: 3.7%

Model Bullish Setup (75/100)Model Risk Weight (25/100)

Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).

LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

Period	Filed	Revenue	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	Gross Margin
FY 2025	2025-12-31	$26.89B	$8.56B	$7.19B	52%
FY 2024	2024-12-31	$25.92B	$8.22B	$6.67B	52%
FY 2023	2023-12-31	$25.49B	$8.47B	$8.46B	52%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher + Options & Swing Structure Desk

Whale Flow & Momentum Playbook: Evaluating MCD & AI Leaders Without Chasing Tops

✓Institutional whale strikes & implied earnings move audit on MCD
✓How disciplined traders manage risk using pre-published trigger & invalidation levels
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on tracked leaders

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

MCD // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -9.14%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE

2026-11-02O $250.5H $258.1L $250.5C $258.1VOL 4.55M

RES: $262.3SUP: $218.5SMA50: $247.7SMA200: $282.7

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

MCD Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 MCD Butterfly Map → + Track MCD →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

15.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +3.7% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on MCD today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for MCD. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for MCD today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (MCD)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #60 of 1011 ⚔️ SBUX vs MCD Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (MCD vs. SBUX, YUM, CMG, QSR)

Industry: Restaurants (51 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, McDonald's Corporation (MCD) ranks #60 by composite RQD confidence (75/100, grade B) and #10 by equity capitalization ($182.13B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, MCD leads on earnings valuation at 21.3x trailing P/E, while YUM leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 60.3% ROIC and 69.8% gross margin. MCD currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 75/100 (B).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
MCD ACTIVE McDonald's Corporation	B	75/100	21.3x	—	26.2%	+0.29%	$182.13B	Benchmark Subject
SBUX Starbucks Corporation	C	65/100	64.8x	—	24.1%	-1.74%	$120.28B	/sbux-vs-mcd →
YUM Yum! Brands Inc.	B	74/100	27.1x	69.8%	60.3%	+0.55%	$42.18B	/yum-vs-mcd →
CMG Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc.	C+	69/100	25.8x	—	30.2%	+1.95%	$39.58B	/cmg-vs-mcd →
QSR Restaurant Brands International Inc.	D	50/100	30.9x	—	12.6%	-0.82%	$33.18B	/qsr-vs-mcd →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000063908

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), McDonald's Corporation (MCD) reported GAAP revenue of $26.89B (+3.7% vs. FY2024 revenue of $25.92B , and +5.5% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $8.56B, operating cash flow of $10.55B, and free cash flow of $7.19B (+7.7% YoY). On the balance sheet, MCD closed FY2025 with $59.52B in total assets against $39.97B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 6.61, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$26.89B	$8.56B	$10.55B	$7.19B	$59.52B	$39.97B
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$25.92B	$8.22B	$9.45B	$6.67B	$55.18B	$38.42B
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$25.49B	$8.47B	$9.61B	$8.46B	$100.17B	$23.44B

3. MCD Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is MCD stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does MCD compare to SBUX and YUM in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MCD?

Where is MCD trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

MCD last traded at $258.12 (+0.29% on volume of 6,532,631 shares), positioning the stock +4.21% above its 50-day simple moving average ($247.70) and -8.69% below its 200-day simple moving average ($282.68). Across its 52-week range of $229.20 to $341.75, MCD sits at the 25.7% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 66.5 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±4.0% ($247.80 to $268.44).

MCD Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

When is MCD's next earnings date?

Based on SEC filing cadence, McDonald's Corporation (MCD)'s next quarterly reporting window is estimated around Dec 30, 2026.

How much is MCD stock expected to move on earnings?

Volatility modeling currently projects a ±4% event move for MCD, spanning a range between $247.8 and $268.44.

Direct Sub-Reports: MCD RQD Cockpit MCD 12M Forecast MCD Earnings & Move MCD Dividends & DRIP MCD Insiders & 13F MCD Whale Options MCD Profit Sankey MCD News & Why

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 75/100 (B) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

MCD — McDonald's Corporation: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5

As of: 2026-11-02T15:09:09Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, MCD scores 75 out of 100 (grade B, verdict "Roarable Buy — Good Risk/Reward"). The five pillars break down as follows:

Fundamental Cash Engine: 18/20. Per the RQD rating, this pillar reflects ROIC of 26.2% and a FCF yield of 3.95%. For an investor, this is the strongest part of the case: the business earns high returns on invested capital, and its free cash flow relative to market value is a meaningful, if not outsized, yield.
Whale 13F Flow: 12/20. Per the RQD rating, this pillar covers institutional accumulation and options positioning. The moderate score suggests institutional support is present but not dominant.
Insider Conviction: 16/20. Per the RQD rating, this reflects SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow. A relatively strong score points to insider activity leaning constructive, though the source data here does not itemize the individual transactions.
Macro Regime Fit: 11/20. Per the RQD rating, beta is 1 and sector sensitivity is noted. This is the weakest pillar, indicating the stock's fit with the current macro regime is moderate rather than favorable.
Forensic Balance Sheet: 18/20. Per the RQD rating, Altman Z is 6.61, Piotroski F is 7/9, and Debt/Equity is 0.85. These readings point to a financially sound balance sheet.

Taken together, the investor implication is that the rating's strength lies in cash generation and balance-sheet quality, while its main limitation is macro/sector fit and only moderate institutional flow. Valuation tradeoffs are visible in the market data: P/E (TTM) of 21.3 and forward P/E of 19.8 imply earnings expected to grow, while EV/EBITDA of 14.5 sits in the context of a stock that has traded between $229.2 and $341.75 over 52 weeks. The price of $257.38 sits in the lower part of that range. A prospective investor should weigh whether the high-return, cash-generative profile justifies the multiple, and whether the macro-sensitivity pillar warrants caution. This is an analytical framing, not a personalized recommendation.

Snapshot

Price	Market Cap	P/E (TTM)	Forward P/E	EV/EBITDA	EPS (TTM)	Dividend Yield	Beta	52-Wk Range	ROIC %
$257.38	$182.13B	21.3	19.8	14.5	12.1	2.81%	1	$229.2 - $341.75	26.2%

Financial Trend

Period	Revenue	Operating Income	Net Income	EPS	FCF	Cash	Debt
FY 2025	$26885.0M	$12393.0M	$8563.0M	N/A	$7186.0M	$774.0M	$39973.0M
FY 2024	$25920.0M	$11712.0M	$8223.0M	N/A	$6672.0M	$1085.0M	$38424.0M
FY 2023	$25494.0M	$11647.0M	$8469.0M	N/A	$8464.8M	N/A	$23440.5M

Per the SEC financials, revenue rose from $25494.0M (FY 2023) to $26885.0M (FY 2025), and operating income moved from $11647.0M to $12393.0M over the same span. Per the market data, operating margin is 46.1% and net margin is 31.9%, while gross margin is listed as 0%, which is Not available in source data as a meaningful figure. Per the Roarable RQD rating, ROIC is 26.2%. The Altman Z-Score of 6.61 and Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 are cited in the RQD rating's forensic pillar. Per the SEC financials, debt rose from $23440.5M (FY 2023) to $39973.0M (FY 2025) while cash declined to $774.0M in FY 2025, and Debt/Equity is 0.85 per the RQD rating.

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

Market-wire item (YELLOW): A Yahoo Finance report on MCD market action, institutional positioning, and fundamentals, linked as a trending-stock piece.
Risk-watch item (RED): A Seeking Alpha piece titled around a 30% drop in MCD, framing "noise vs. fundamentals."
Risk-watch item (RED): A TradingView report on a 12-month price target cut to $289.36, implying 16% upside.
Market-wire item (YELLOW): A Benzinga report on the stock's Tuesday move.
Market-wire item (YELLOW): A StockInvest.us price forecast.
Market-wire item (YELLOW): A Yahoo Finance piece noting a 23% decline over six months and whether to buy the dip.

Per the recent news and catalysts section, the wire is mixed: three items are marked YELLOW (market wire) and two are marked RED (risk watch). The RED items center on a sharp drawdown and a lowered price target. The Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph reports no proprietary signals and no links.

Open Questions

What are the specific insider and Congressional transactions behind the insider conviction score?
What is the consensus analyst rating, and how do current price targets compare to the $257.38 price?
Which institutions hold MCD, and what is the direction of recent 13F position changes?
What is the company's revenue breakdown by segment or geography, and what drives the FY 2023–FY 2025 changes in debt and cash?
What is the source of the 0% gross margin figure, and how should it be interpreted alongside the reported operating and net margins?

MCD Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for McDonald's Corporation (MCD) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to MCD Debate Forum (3) ↓

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 10h ago

McDonald's Corporation (MCD) Is a Trending Stock: Facts to Know Before Betting on It

Yahoo Finance report covering McDonald's Corporation (MCD) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔴 RISK WATCH Seeking Alpha • 13h ago

Unpacking McDonald’s 30% Drop: Noise Vs. Fundamentals (NYSE:MCD)

Seeking Alpha report covering McDonald's Corporation (MCD) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔴 RISK WATCH TradingView • 16h ago

McDonald's Corporation Stock 12‑Month Price Target Cut to $289.36, Implies 16% Upside

TradingView report covering McDonald's Corporation (MCD) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Benzinga • 19h ago

What's Going On With McDonald's Stock Tuesday? - McDonald's (NYSE:MCD)

Benzinga report covering McDonald's Corporation (MCD) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE StockInvest.us • 22h ago

Mcdonalds Stock Price Forecast. Should You Buy MCD?

StockInvest.us report covering McDonald's Corporation (MCD) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 1d ago

McDonald's Stock Down 23% in 6 Months: Should Investors Buy the Dip?

Yahoo Finance report covering McDonald's Corporation (MCD) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔴 RISK WATCH Seeking Alpha • 1d ago

McDonald's: Not All Of The Slump Is Macro, And That's The Good News (NYSE:MCD)

Seeking Alpha report covering McDonald's Corporation (MCD) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 1d ago

McDonald's (MCD) Rises Higher Than Market: Key Facts

Yahoo Finance report covering McDonald's Corporation (MCD) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

MCD Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $258.12?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON MCD 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION

RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $303.71 (+18.0%)

📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is MCD (B • RQD 75/100) a Buy at $257.38?

Welcome to the MCD (McDonald's Corporation) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 75/100 (Roarable Buy — Good Risk/Reward) in Restaurants. Bulls point to capital efficiency (26.2% ROIC), while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

FO ForensicBear Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $205.90 (-20.0%)

Spot @ $257.38

Pump the brakes on MCD — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on MCD, but look at what you are paying: 21.3x trailing P/E with tightening sector spreads. Unless McDonald's Corporation expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

MA MacroHawk_NYC Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $303.71 (+18.0%)

Spot @ $257.38

MCD cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on MCD, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Restaurants and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $257.38 (52-wk range $229.20 - $341.75), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.