Mercury General Corporation (MCY) Insider, 13F Hedge Fund & Politician Buy/Sell Thermometer

$102.42 -0.22% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $102.63

Mercury General Corporation (MCY) earns a Roarable Rating of B (Buy) with 72/100 RQD Confidence. High-quality cash engine (steady margins, 22% return on capital) with steady institutional support. The company’s underlying cash engine and institutional positioning keep the composite score in the Green Buy zone.

ROARABLE B • BUY Cap $5.67B
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is MCY stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Mercury General Corporation (NYSE: MCY) is rated B (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 72/100 at a spot price of $102.42 (-0.22% 1D, market cap $5.67B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 16/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 11/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 14/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 18/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, MCY ranks #68 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does MCY compare to MTG and SIGI in the Financials sector?
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Within the Financials sector (Property-Casualty Insurers), MCY carries a Roarable B (72/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 10.5x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 22.4%. By comparison, MTG (MGIC Investment Corporation) holds a B grade (72/100 RQD, P/E 8.0x, ROIC 13.2%, cap $5.83B) and SIGI (Selective Insurance Group Inc.) posts a B grade (74/100 RQD, P/E 12.6x, ROIC 6.8%, cap $5.83B). Among the 5-stock peer group, WTM leads on earnings multiple (4.8x) while MCY leads on capital efficiency (22.4% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MCY?
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Per MCY's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000064996), Mercury General Corporation generated $5.99B in revenue (+9.4% YoY), $541.1M in net income, and $1.09B in free cash flow against $9.56B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
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INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $102.62 (+0.20%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.92% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 16/20 (B+) • 18.1% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 72/100 (B) historically ranked in the Top 13% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+7.0% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 68.7% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERBUY • B
025507510072
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw B · Rk C+
Cash (16)Whales (11)SEC (13)Macro (14)CEO (18)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+6.3% Base Target
$128 Bull$109 Base$84 Bear
📬 FREE MCY RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for MCY)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±4.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (72/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY MCY SCORES 72/100 (B) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+18/20 pts (25% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 86% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.92% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+16/20 pts (22% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 18.1% FCF Margin ($1.09B FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning11/20 pts (-9 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-9 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
80
Grade A-$102.88+2.1% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
77
Grade B+$105.03-2.3% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
75
Grade B+$102.58-0.2% Next Q
Current
72
Grade B$102.42+7% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: A- (80) → B (72)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the MCY Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 72/100 (B) score, MCY faces multiple-compression risk if 10.5x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.92% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($102.11) or 200D SMA ($98.75) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($108.87) toward Bear Floor ($83.98).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $MCY• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “MCY Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
SEC FORM 4 × 13F HEDGE FUNDS × CONGRESSIONAL STOCK ACT

MCY Smart-Money Thermometer: HEAVY INSIDER & 13F ACCUMULATION

Explore All 13F & Congress Whales →
▲ Disclosed Buys: 0 ($0)▼ Disclosed Sales: 0 ($0)

Wide-Open SEC Form 4, 13F & Congressional Disclosure Ledger (MCY)

No recent open-market Form 4 cluster sales or emergency dumps flagged on MCY. Visit the Global 13F & Congressional Whale Ledger for cross-market smart-money filings.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (MCY Tape Review)

  • ✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
  • ✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
  • ✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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MCY // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +7.26%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-03O $102.7H $102.7L $102.4C $102.4VOL 142.0K
RES: $107.4SUP: $93.94SMA50: $102.1SMA200: $98.75
$115.0$107.0$98.99$91.00$83.00RES $107.4SUP $93.94$102.42026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

MCY Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
-0.2%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +9.4% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on MCY today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for MCY. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for MCY today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (MCY)

Financials Rank #68 of 1096 ⚔️ MTG vs MCY Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (MCY vs. MTG, SIGI, WTM, RLI)

Industry: Property-Casualty Insurers (68 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Mercury General Corporation (MCY) ranks #68 by composite RQD confidence (72/100, grade B) and #253 by equity capitalization ($5.67B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, WTM leads on earnings valuation at 4.8x trailing P/E, while MCY leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 22.4% ROIC and — gross margin. RLI currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 80/100 (B+) compared with MCY at 72/100 (B).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
MCY ACTIVE
Mercury General Corporation
B 72/100 10.5x — 22.4% -0.22% $5.67B Benchmark Subject
MTG
MGIC Investment Corporation
B 72/100 8.0x — 13.2% -1.52% $5.83B /mtg-vs-mcy →
SIGI
Selective Insurance Group Inc.
B 74/100 12.6x — 6.8% -0.49% $5.83B /sigi-vs-mcy →
WTM
White Mountains Insurance Group Ltd.
B- 70/100 4.8x — 16.4% +1.09% $5.42B /wtm-vs-mcy →
RLI
RLI Corp.
B+ 80/100 14.7x — 13.5% +0.94% $5.98B /rli-vs-mcy →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000064996

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Mercury General Corporation (MCY) reported GAAP revenue of $5.99B (+9.4% vs. FY2024 revenue of $5.48B , and +29.4% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $541.1M, operating cash flow of $1.09B, and free cash flow of $1.09B (+4.8% YoY). On the balance sheet, MCY closed FY2025 with $9.56B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $5.99B $541.1M $1.09B $1.09B $9.56B —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $5.48B $468.0M $1.04B $1.04B $8.31B —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $4.63B $96.3M $453.0M $453.0M — —

3. MCY Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is MCY stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Mercury General Corporation (NYSE: MCY) is rated B (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 72/100 at a spot price of $102.42 (-0.22% 1D, market cap $5.67B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 16/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 11/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 14/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 18/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, MCY ranks #68 in composite RQD confidence.

How does MCY compare to MTG and SIGI in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Property-Casualty Insurers), MCY carries a Roarable B (72/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 10.5x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 22.4%. By comparison, MTG (MGIC Investment Corporation) holds a B grade (72/100 RQD, P/E 8.0x, ROIC 13.2%, cap $5.83B) and SIGI (Selective Insurance Group Inc.) posts a B grade (74/100 RQD, P/E 12.6x, ROIC 6.8%, cap $5.83B). Among the 5-stock peer group, WTM leads on earnings multiple (4.8x) while MCY leads on capital efficiency (22.4% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MCY?

Per MCY's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000064996), Mercury General Corporation generated $5.99B in revenue (+9.4% YoY), $541.1M in net income, and $1.09B in free cash flow against $9.56B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is MCY trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

MCY last traded at $102.42 (-0.22% on volume of 142,028 shares), positioning the stock +0.30% above its 50-day simple moving average ($102.11) and +3.72% above its 200-day simple moving average ($98.75). Across its 52-week range of $74.29 to $113.06, MCY sits at the 72.6% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 49.7 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±4.5% ($97.81 to $107.03).

MCY Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Are MCY insiders and hedge funds buying or selling?

Roarable's SEC Form 4 and 13F Whale Thermometer currently classifies MCY leadership and institutional positioning as: HEAVY INSIDER & 13F ACCUMULATION.

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 72/100 (B) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

MCY — Mercury General Corporation: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T15:19:55Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, MCY scores 73 out of 100, a letter grade of B, with the verdict label "Roarable Buy — Good Risk/Reward." The score is built from five pillars:

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (16 / 20): Per the Roarable RQD rating, this pillar reflects ROIC of 22.4% and an FCF yield of 19.12%. For an investor, these are the strongest cash-generation datapoints in the rating, suggesting the business earns high returns on invested capital and throws off substantial free cash relative to its market value. The tradeoff is that the source does not break out how durable these figures are across periods beyond the three reported years.
  • Whale 13F Flow (12 / 20): Per the Roarable RQD rating, this pillar reflects institutional accumulation and options positioning. The mid-range score indicates institutional interest that is present but not dominant. The source data contains no 13F holder detail (see Analyst View section), so this pillar cannot be traced to specific filers.
  • Insider Conviction (18 / 20): Per the Roarable RQD rating, this is the highest pillar and reflects SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow. A high score here signals concentrated insider activity; the direction and identity of those trades are not itemized in the source data.
  • Macro Regime Fit (14 / 20): Per the Roarable RQD rating, beta of 1.0 and sector sensitivity drive this score. A beta of 1.0 means the stock is, by the source's measure, expected to move in line with the broader market, offering neither a defensive nor an amplified profile on that metric alone.
  • Forensic Balance Sheet (13 / 20): Per the Roarable RQD rating, the pillar reflects Altman Z 2.5, Piotroski F 6/9, and Debt/Equity 0.5. These are moderate, serviceable readings rather than exceptional ones; the Altman and Piotroski figures are not interpreted against thresholds in the source.

Taken together, the rating points to a business with strong cash returns and a valuation the source describes as modest on earnings (see Snapshot), offset by only mid-range institutional flow and a balance sheet that is adequate rather than fortress-like. The valuation tradeoff: a trailing P/E of 10.5 and forward P/E of 9.8 sit at the low end of the multiples shown, which is the upside argument, while the 52-week range of $74.29–$113.06 puts the current $102.65 price in the upper portion of that band, leaving less room in the source's own range framing. Investors weighing this should consider that the rating is a model output built from the five pillars above, not a guarantee of outcome.

Business

Per the profile, Mercury General Corporation is a NYSE-listed issuer in the Financials sector, operating within the Property-Casualty Insurers industry. The source data does not describe its product lines, customer base, or distribution channels. Per the market data, reported net margin is 9%, while gross margin and operating margin are each shown as 0%, which the source does not explain. How the company earns revenue beyond its sector and industry classification is not available in source data.

Financial Trend

PeriodRevenueOperating IncomeNet IncomeEPSFCFCashDebt
FY 2025$5992.5M$0.0M$541.1MN/A$1087.2MN/AN/A
FY 2024$5475.6M$0.0M$468.0MN/A$1037.1MN/AN/A
FY 2023$4629.6M$0.0M$96.3MN/A$453.0MN/AN/A

Per the SEC financials, revenue rose from $4629.6M in FY 2023 to $5992.5M in FY 2025, and net income moved from $96.3M to $541.1M over the same span. Free cash flow was $453.0M in FY 2023, $1037.1M in FY 2024, and $1087.2M in FY 2025. Operating income is shown as $0.0M in every period, so it cannot be used to assess operating profitability. Per the Roarable RQD rating and market data, ROIC is 22.4%, Altman Z is 2.5, and Piotroski F is 6/9, with Debt/Equity at 0.5. Cash and debt balances are not reported in the financials.

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

Per the recent news wire, six items reference MCY, all from aggregator and financial-media sources (Yahoo! Finance Canada, TradingView, Yahoo Finance, MarketBeat), each flagged YELLOW under the MARKET WIRE impact label. The headlines reference general stock-price coverage, a valuation-oriented piece ("Is Mercury General (MCY) Stock Undervalued Right Now?"), a note on an institutional holding change ("Stock Holdings Lowered by Inspire Investing LLC"), and a preview of Q3 earnings ("reports Q3: everything you need to know ahead of earnings"). The summaries are generic and do not state specific fundamental events. Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, supply chain is listed as NONE with no butterfly links and no proprietary signals, so no supply-chain or proprietary catalysts are available. Risk watch items drawn from the wire are limited to the institutional position reduction and the upcoming earnings report, whose results are not in the source data.

Butterfly Effect: 2nd-Order Supply-Chain & Sector Ripples

Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, the supply chain is NONE, with an empty list of butterfly links and an empty list of proprietary signals. The source therefore does not identify upstream suppliers, downstream customers, or sector correlations beyond the sector and industry labels. Second-order bottlenecks cannot be mapped from the available data. Investors should treat this section as unresolved rather than as evidence of an absence of ripple effects.

Open Questions

  • What are the company's product lines, underwriting mix, and geographic footprint, given that the source provides only sector classification?
  • Why is operating income reported as $0.0M in every period and gross margin as 0%, and what is the true operating profitability?
  • What are the cash and debt balances, and how do they support the 0.5 Debt/Equity figure in the forensic pillar?
  • What do the Form 4 insider and 13F institutional filings actually show, given the Insider Conviction and Whale Flow pillar scores rest on them?
  • What did the upcoming Q3 earnings report deliver, and how does it bear on the valuation multiples shown?

MCY Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Mercury General Corporation (MCY) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to MCY Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

MCY Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $102.42?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON MCY 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on MCY:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $121.13 (+18.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is MCY (B • RQD 73/100) a Buy at $102.65?

Welcome to the MCY (Mercury General Corporation) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 73/100 (Roarable Buy — Good Risk/Reward) in Property-Casualty Insurers. Bulls point to capital efficiency (22.4% ROIC), while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

SK SkepticalCFA Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $84.17 (-18.0%)
Spot @ $102.65

Pump the brakes on MCY — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on MCY, but look at what you are paying: 10.5x trailing P/E with tightening sector spreads. Unless Mercury General Corporation expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

MI MidwestValue Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $124.21 (+21.0%)
Spot @ $102.65

MCY cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on MCY, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Property-Casualty Insurers and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $102.65 (52-wk range $74.29 - $113.06), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.

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