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Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / MG / options
WLDN (64) JLHL (45) VSEC (52) STN (57) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Mistras Group Inc (MG) Options Positioning, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps

$20.15 -0.15% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $20.11

Mistras Group Inc (MG) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 53/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID Cap $642.7M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is MG stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Mistras Group Inc (NYSE: MG) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 53/100 at a spot price of $20.15 (-0.15% 1D, market cap $642.7M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 9/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 10/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 11/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 11/20. Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, MG ranks #485 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does MG compare to WLDN and JLHL in the Consumer Discretionary sector?
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Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Military/Government/Technical), MG carries a Roarable D+ (53/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 38.2x, gross margin of 28.2%, and ROIC of 8.6%. By comparison, WLDN (Willdan Group Inc.) holds a C grade (64/100 RQD, P/E 22.4x, ROIC 12.2%, cap $1.12B) and JLHL (Julong Holding Limited (Class A)) posts a D grade (45/100 RQD, P/E 32.7x, ROIC —, cap $126.8M). Among the 5-stock peer group, WLDN leads on earnings multiple (22.4x) while WLDN leads on capital efficiency (12.2% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MG?
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Per MG's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001436126), Mistras Group Inc generated $724.0M in revenue (-0.8% YoY), $16.8M in net income, and $8.3M in free cash flow against $578.8M in total assets and $165.1M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Priced at 38x earnings—high expectations leave less room for a lukewarm quarter. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $20.11 (-0.22%)🧬 Disciplined Float (+0.24% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 9/20 (D) • 1.1% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 53/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.9% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 50.6% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+
025507510053
Quant Analyst Panel Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw D · Rk D+
Cash (9)Whales (10)SEC (11)Macro (12)CEO (11)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-2.2% Base Target
$23 Bull$20 Base$15 Bear
📬 FREE MG RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for MG)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±3.6%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (53/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY MG SCORES 53/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+12/20 pts (23% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 86% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 41.9 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+11/20 pts (21% of score)

Altman Z-Score 2.81 (WATCH ZONE (1.8–3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 7/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Cash Engine Quality9/20 pts (-11 pt drag)

Capital intensity & 5.6% operating margin leave 11 pts on the table

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
61
Grade C$20.84+3.6% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
58
Grade C$21.60-5.3% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
56
Grade C$20.45-1.5% Next Q
Current
53
Grade D+$20.15-0.9% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C (61) → D+ (53)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a MG Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While MG currently carries a cautious 53/100 (D+) rating due to Cash Engine Quality (9/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($20.35) and Max Pain ($21.16) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $23.25.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (+0.24% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $MG• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “MG Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 53%NO 47%Trade / Inspect Odds →
CALL VS. PUT WHALE SHARE
— (No Active Options Snapshot)
Put/Call Ratio: — (No Active Options Snapshot)
MAX-PAIN EXPIRATION MAGNET
— (No Active Options Snapshot)
No active options chain max-pain snapshot on file
HISTORICAL 20D VOLATILITY SWING
±3.6%
Derived from 20D OHLCV bars (No Active Options Snapshot)

Active Strike Call vs. Put Concentration Ladder (MG)

— (No Active Options Snapshot) — No unusual CBOE strike concentration anomalies recorded in the current database snapshot for MG.

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Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring MG)

  • ✓Walkthrough of MG's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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MG // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +7.81%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-03O $20.20H $20.20L $20.15C $20.15VOL 456.3K
RES: $23.47SUP: $13.86SMA50: $20.35SMA200: $17.41
$22.59$19.82$17.06$14.30$11.53RES $23.47SUP $13.86$20.152026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

MG Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 MG Butterfly Map → + Track MG →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
29.2%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -0.8% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on MG today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for MG. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for MG today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (MG)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #485 of 1009 ⚔️ WLDN vs MG Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (MG vs. WLDN, JLHL, VSEC, STN)

Industry: Military/Government/Technical (43 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Mistras Group Inc (MG) ranks #485 by composite RQD confidence (53/100, grade D+) and #561 by equity capitalization ($642.7M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, WLDN leads on earnings valuation at 22.4x trailing P/E, while WLDN leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 12.2% ROIC and 37.5% gross margin. WLDN currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 64/100 (C) compared with MG at 53/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
MG ACTIVE
Mistras Group Inc
D+ 53/100 38.2x 28.2% 8.6% -0.15% $642.7M Benchmark Subject
WLDN
Willdan Group Inc.
C 64/100 22.4x 37.5% 12.2% -2.13% $1.12B /wldn-vs-mg →
JLHL
Julong Holding Limited (Class A)
D 45/100 32.7x 16.1% — +2.28% $126.8M /jlhl-vs-mg →
VSEC
VSE Corporation
D+ 52/100 — — 4.3% +8.37% $4.15B /vsec-vs-mg →
STN
Stantec Inc
D+ 57/100 32.8x — 9.9% +5.49% $8.13B /stn-vs-mg →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001436126 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Mistras Group Inc (MG) reported GAAP revenue of $724.0M (-0.8% vs. FY2024 revenue of $729.6M , and +2.6% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $16.8M, operating cash flow of $33.0M, and free cash flow of $8.3M (-74.2% YoY). On the balance sheet, MG closed FY2025 with $578.8M in total assets against $165.1M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 2.81, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $724.0M $16.8M $33.0M $8.3M $578.8M $165.1M
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $729.6M $19.0M $50.1M $32.2M $523.0M $158.1M
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $705.5M -$17.5M $26.7M $26.7M — —

3. MG Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is MG stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Mistras Group Inc (NYSE: MG) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 53/100 at a spot price of $20.15 (-0.15% 1D, market cap $642.7M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 9/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 10/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 11/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 11/20. Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, MG ranks #485 in composite RQD confidence.

How does MG compare to WLDN and JLHL in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Military/Government/Technical), MG carries a Roarable D+ (53/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 38.2x, gross margin of 28.2%, and ROIC of 8.6%. By comparison, WLDN (Willdan Group Inc.) holds a C grade (64/100 RQD, P/E 22.4x, ROIC 12.2%, cap $1.12B) and JLHL (Julong Holding Limited (Class A)) posts a D grade (45/100 RQD, P/E 32.7x, ROIC —, cap $126.8M). Among the 5-stock peer group, WLDN leads on earnings multiple (22.4x) while WLDN leads on capital efficiency (12.2% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MG?

Per MG's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001436126), Mistras Group Inc generated $724.0M in revenue (-0.8% YoY), $16.8M in net income, and $8.3M in free cash flow against $578.8M in total assets and $165.1M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Priced at 38x earnings—high expectations leave less room for a lukewarm quarter. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is MG trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

MG last traded at $20.15 (-0.15% on volume of 619,084 shares), positioning the stock -0.98% below its 50-day simple moving average ($20.35) and +15.74% above its 200-day simple moving average ($17.41). Across its 52-week range of $9.45 to $21.92, MG sits at the 85.8% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 41.9 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±3.6% ($19.42 to $20.88).

Direct Sub-Reports: MG RQD Cockpit MG 12M Forecast MG Earnings & Move MG Dividends & DRIP MG Insiders & 13F MG Whale Options MG Profit Sankey MG News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 53/100 (D+) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

MG — Mistras Group Inc: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Mistras Group Inc (MG) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 53/100, corresponding to a D+ letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $20.15 (-0.15% 1D, market capitalization $642.7M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (9/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 8.6%, gross margin of 28.2%, operating margin of 5.6%, and free cash flow yield of 1.29%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (10/20) + Insider Conviction (11/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (12/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (11/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 2.81, Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.70x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Is a NYSE-listed issuer classified under the Consumer Discretionary sector and the Military/Government/Technical industry, with a market capitalization of $0.6B. —: customer base, product lines, and revenue mix. —: specific monetization model beyond reported revenue and margin figures.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Mistras Group Inc (MG) reported $724.0M in annual revenue (up from $729.6M in FY2024, -0.8% YoY) and $16.8M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($705.5M revenue, -$17.5M net income) through FY2025, MG scaled operating cash flow to $33.0M and free cash flow to $8.3M, backed by $578.8M in total assets against $165.1M in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D+ • RQD 53/100): Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of 1.29% and institutional whale pillar of 10/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 9/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 10/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $9.45 – $21.92 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Priced at 38x earnings—high expectations leave less room for a lukewarm quarter. Investors must weigh 38.2x trailing P/E and 12.7x EV/EBITDA against 5.6% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Upstream and downstream dependencies, sector correlations, and second-order bottlenecks are therefore — Investors should note that the only sector-level input available is the Beta of 1.0 and the sector classification itself.

  • Key Question #1: Can MG sustain or expand its 5.6% operating margin and 8.6% ROIC against Military/Government/Technical peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $724.0M and free cash flow of $8.3M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $165.1M in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is MG's 35.5x forward P/E multiple to Consumer Discretionary capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

MG Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Mistras Group Inc (MG) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to MG Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

MG Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $20.15?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON MG 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on MG:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
CA CashFlowKing RQD DEBATE OPENER • FCF Compounder Hunter 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $25.83 (+28.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Balance sheet pillar is comparatively sound, with Altman Z 2.81 and Piotroski F 7/9 against Debt/Equity of 0.7.

Picked up a starter position in MG in my $100K Virtual Cash book at $20.18. Balance sheet pillar is comparatively sound, with Altman Z 2.81 and Piotroski F 7/9 against Debt/Equity of 0.7.. Trading inside a $9.45–$21.92 52-week range with 1.29% FCF yield gives solid downside support if Military/Government/Technical multiples expand this quarter.

VolSurface_Trader 🐂 BULL

Both sides have a point here — MG's 11/20 balance sheet score keeps downside contained, so the real swing factor next earnings call is backlog and FCF conversion.

FO ForensicBear RQD DEBATE OPENER • 10-K Footnote Auditor 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $16.55 (-18.0%)
Spot @ $20.18

Cash engine is weak, with a 1.29% FCF yield and 8.6% ROIC against a 38.2 trailing P/E.

Fading this rally in MG at $20.18. Cash engine is weak, with a 1.29% FCF yield and 8.6% ROIC against a 38.2 trailing P/E.. With a beta of 1.0 and the stock sitting at $20.18 (52-wk range $9.45–$21.92), the easy multiple expansion is already priced in.

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