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Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / MHO / forecast
KBH (53) GEO (47) GRBK (56) MTH (59) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

M/I Homes Inc. (MHO) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$128.28 -0.05% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $128.02

M/I Homes Inc. (MHO) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 48/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (48/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →
ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $3.21B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on MHO Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is MHO stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
▼

As of 2026-11-03, M/I Homes Inc. (NYSE: MHO) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 48/100 at a spot price of $128.28 (-0.05% 1D, market cap $3.21B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 9/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 7/20, Executive Insider Alignment 12/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 6/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 14/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, MHO ranks #587 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does MHO compare to KBH and GEO in the Consumer Discretionary sector?
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Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Homebuilding), MHO carries a Roarable D (48/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 8.0x, gross margin of 23.0%, and ROIC of 12.6%. By comparison, KBH (KB Home) holds a D+ grade (53/100 RQD, P/E 6.8x, ROIC 11.0%, cap $2.91B) and GEO (Geo Group Inc) posts a D grade (47/100 RQD, P/E 14.8x, ROIC 6.6%, cap $3.75B). Among the 5-stock peer group, KBH leads on earnings multiple (6.8x) while GRBK leads on capital efficiency (18.5% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MHO?
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Per MHO's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000799292), M/I Homes Inc. generated $4.42B in revenue (-1.9% YoY), $402.9M in net income, and $127.7M in free cash flow against $4.78B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $128.02 (-0.20%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.80% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 9/20 (D) • 2.9% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (48/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-5.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D
025507510048
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D · Rk D
Cash (9)Whales (7)SEC (12)Macro (6)CEO (14)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-4.5% Base Target
$172 Bull$123 Base$96 Bear
📬 FREE MHO RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for MHO)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±7.2%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (48/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY MHO SCORES 48/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+14/20 pts (29% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 70% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-1.80% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+12/20 pts (25% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.43 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 3/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit6/20 pts (-14 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (49.1) create a -14 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
40
Grade D$125.99-1.5% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
43
Grade D$124.06+1.7% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
45
Grade D$126.17+1.7% Next Q
Current
48
Grade D$128.28-5.6% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: D (40) → D (48)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a MHO Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While MHO currently carries a cautious 48/100 (D) rating due to Macro Regime Fit (6/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($135.27) and Max Pain ($134.69) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $171.84.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Cannibal Buyback (-1.80% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $MHO• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “MHO Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 48%NO 52%Trade / Inspect Odds →
INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your MHO Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $128.28: 78.0 sh
$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000
12M Bear Case FloorTarget $95.56
$7,449
$-2,551 (-25.5%)
12M Consensus BaseTarget $122.51
$9,550
$-450 (-4.5%)
12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $171.84
$13,396
+$3,396 (+34.0%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (32 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100
● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 6
Wall Street FirmStance12M Target1Y AccuracyTrack Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity DeskHOLD$12774%A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage LeadUNDERPERFORM$16269%B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap ResearchSELL$10958%C
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring MHO)

  • ✓Walkthrough of MHO's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?
Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena
MHO // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +2.03%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-03O $128.3H $128.3L $128.3C $128.3VOL 225.2K
RES: $144.4SUP: $109.9SMA50: $135.3SMA200: $137.6
$167.2$152.6$138.0$123.5$108.9RES $144.4SUP $109.9$128.32026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

MHO Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 MHO Butterfly Map → + Track MHO →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
-5.5%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -1.9% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on MHO today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for MHO. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for MHO today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (MHO)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #587 of 1011 ⚔️ KBH vs MHO Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (MHO vs. KBH, GEO, GRBK, MTH)

Industry: Homebuilding (31 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, M/I Homes Inc. (MHO) ranks #587 by composite RQD confidence (48/100, grade D) and #346 by equity capitalization ($3.21B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, KBH leads on earnings valuation at 6.8x trailing P/E, while GRBK leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 18.5% ROIC and 31.4% gross margin. MTH currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 59/100 (C-) compared with MHO at 48/100 (D).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
MHO ACTIVE
M/I Homes Inc.
D 48/100 8.0x 23.0% 12.6% -0.05% $3.21B Benchmark Subject
KBH
KB Home
D+ 53/100 6.8x — 11.0% +0.59% $2.91B /kbh-vs-mho →
GEO
Geo Group Inc
D 47/100 14.8x — 6.6% -0.07% $3.75B /geo-vs-mho →
GRBK
Green Brick Partners Inc.
D+ 56/100 7.7x 31.4% 18.5% -2.67% $2.58B /grbk-vs-mho →
MTH
Meritage Homes Corporation
C- 59/100 9.3x — 8.0% -0.03% $4.20B /mth-vs-mho →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000799292

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), M/I Homes Inc. (MHO) reported GAAP revenue of $4.42B (-1.9% vs. FY2024 revenue of $4.50B , and +9.5% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $402.9M, operating cash flow of $137.3M, and free cash flow of $127.7M (-25.4% YoY). On the balance sheet, MHO closed FY2025 with $4.78B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 3.43, Piotroski F-Score: 3/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $4.42B $402.9M $137.3M $127.7M $4.78B —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $4.50B $563.7M $179.7M $171.3M $4.55B —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $4.03B $465.4M $552.1M $552.1M — —

3. MHO Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is MHO stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, M/I Homes Inc. (NYSE: MHO) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 48/100 at a spot price of $128.28 (-0.05% 1D, market cap $3.21B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 9/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 7/20, Executive Insider Alignment 12/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 6/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 14/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, MHO ranks #587 in composite RQD confidence.

How does MHO compare to KBH and GEO in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Homebuilding), MHO carries a Roarable D (48/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 8.0x, gross margin of 23.0%, and ROIC of 12.6%. By comparison, KBH (KB Home) holds a D+ grade (53/100 RQD, P/E 6.8x, ROIC 11.0%, cap $2.91B) and GEO (Geo Group Inc) posts a D grade (47/100 RQD, P/E 14.8x, ROIC 6.6%, cap $3.75B). Among the 5-stock peer group, KBH leads on earnings multiple (6.8x) while GRBK leads on capital efficiency (18.5% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MHO?

Per MHO's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000799292), M/I Homes Inc. generated $4.42B in revenue (-1.9% YoY), $402.9M in net income, and $127.7M in free cash flow against $4.78B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is MHO trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

MHO last traded at $128.28 (-0.05% on volume of 225,215 shares), positioning the stock -5.17% below its 50-day simple moving average ($135.27) and -6.75% below its 200-day simple moving average ($137.56). Across its 52-week range of $113.40 to $163.66, MHO sits at the 29.6% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 49.1 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±7.2% ($119.04 to $137.52).

MHO Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is MHO's 12-month stock price target?

M/I Homes Inc. (MHO) carries a 12-month consensus base price target of $122.51 (-4.5% from $128.28), with a bull-case target of $171.84 and a bear-case floor of $95.56.

Is MHO stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now?

Roarable's 5-Pillar RQD Quant Engine rates MHO D (Sell — SELL) with an RQD Confidence score of 48/100.

Direct Sub-Reports: MHO RQD Cockpit MHO 12M Forecast MHO Earnings & Move MHO Dividends & DRIP MHO Insiders & 13F MHO Whale Options MHO Profit Sankey MHO News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 48/100 (D) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

MHO — M/I Homes Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T15:24:00Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, MHO scores 47 out of 100, a letter grade of D, with the verdict "Roarable Sell — Underperform / Distribution Warning." The five pillars are: Fundamental Cash Engine at 9/20 (ROIC 12.6%; FCF yield 3.98%); Whale 13F Flow at 7/20 (institutional accumulation and options positioning); Insider Conviction at 14/20 (SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow); Macro Regime Fit at 5/20 (Beta 1.0; sector sensitivity); and Forensic Balance Sheet at 12/20 (Altman Z 3.43; Piotroski F 3/9; Debt/Equity 0.5). The two weakest pillars, Macro Regime Fit and Fundamental Cash Engine, indicate that the score is driven less by balance-sheet strength and more by how the business sits within its cycle and how efficiently it converts capital into free cash flow. The Insider Conviction pillar is the strongest of the five, though it does not offset the weaker components. For a prospective investor evaluating the stock today, the rating points to a valuation that screens inexpensive on multiples (per the market data, P/E TTM of 8 and EV/EBITDA of 6.2) while the cash-flow and macro-fit components do not confirm that discount. Upside drivers cited in the sources are limited to the low multiples and the Insider Conviction reading; the principal tradeoff is that low headline multiples coexist with a below-average Macro Regime Fit score and a Piotroski F-Score of 3/9.

Snapshot

PriceMarket CapP/E (TTM)Forward P/EEV/EBITDAEPS (TTM)Dividend YieldBeta52-Wk RangeROIC %
128.34$3.21B87.46.216.10%1.0$113.4 - $163.6612.6%

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

Per the recent news feed, the headlines are predominantly market-wire items tied to MHO, with the following risk-relevant items:

  • A Seeking Alpha item titled "High Mortgage Rates Cloud Earnings (Rating Downgrade)" is flagged RED under the RISK WATCH label.
  • A TradingView and a Benzinga item both report that the CEO flags an "Increasingly Difficult" housing market, each flagged YELLOW.
  • A GuruFocus item notes an 8.1% decline and a GF Value of $13; a Yahoo Finance item reports the stock declining while the market improves; a separate Yahoo Finance item states the stock could be 37% undervalued as cash flow holds up. These items are flagged YELLOW.

Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, the sector is Consumer Discretionary, the industry is Homebuilding, the supply chain is recorded as NONE, and there are no butterfly links or proprietary signals in the source data.

Open Questions

  • What are the company's EPS, cash, and debt figures for FY 2023 through FY 2025, since the financials section reports these as N/A?
  • How do revenue and free-cash-flow trends in the SEC financials reconcile with the company's current 3.98% FCF yield and 12.6% ROIC?
  • What specific mortgage-rate and demand exposures are cited in the RISK WATCH item, and how do they map to the Macro Regime Fit score of 5/20?
  • What is the composition of the Insider Conviction (14/20) and Whale 13F Flow (7/20) pillar inputs, since no holder or Form 4 records are provided?
  • What drives the difference between the bullish "37% undervalued" headline and the bearish RQD verdict?

MHO Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for M/I Homes Inc. (MHO) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to MHO Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

MHO Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $128.28?

🐂 50% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON MHO 🐻 50% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on MHO:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk ⚖️ DEBATE HOST 🎯 Target: $138.61 (+8.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is MHO (D • RQD 47/100) a Buy at $128.34?

Welcome to the MHO (M/I Homes Inc.) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 47/100 (Roarable Sell — Underperform / Distribution Warning) in Homebuilding. Bulls point to capital efficiency (12.6% ROIC), while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

VA ValDiscipline Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $105.24 (-18.0%)
Spot @ $128.34

Pump the brakes on MHO — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on MHO, but look at what you are paying: 8.0x trailing P/E with 23.0% gross margins. Unless M/I Homes Inc. expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

CA CashFlowKing Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $155.29 (+21.0%)
Spot @ $128.34

MHO cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on MHO, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Homebuilding and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $128.34 (52-wk range $113.40 - $163.66), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.

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