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NOVT (59) AAON (36) JBTM (26) ENS (64) ⌘ Pro Terminal β†’

Middleby Corporation (MIDD) Options Positioning, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps

$123.47 +3.80% NASDAQ β€’ Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $124.08

Middleby Corporation (MIDD) carries a Roarable Rating of C (Hold) with 65/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

ROARABLE C β€’ HOLD / WATCH Cap $5.38B
πŸ“€ Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚑ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW β€’ $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on MIDD Below β€” or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
πŸ€– Mara Quenwick β€’ AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is MIDD stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
β–Ό

As of 2026-11-03, Middleby Corporation (NASDAQ: MIDD) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 65/100 at a spot price of $123.47 (+3.80% 1D, market cap $5.38B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 14/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 12/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 14/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 17/20. Across 486 tracked Industrials issuers, MIDD ranks #79 in composite RQD confidence.

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Ellis Vennor β€’ AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does MIDD compare to NOVT and AAON in the Industrials sector?
β–Ό

Within the Industrials sector (Industrial Machinery/Components), MIDD carries a Roarable C (65/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 14.5x, gross margin of 39.1%, and ROIC of 9.7%. By comparison, NOVT (Novanta Inc.) holds a C- grade (59/100 RQD, P/E 106.2x, ROIC 6.5%, cap $5.51B) and AAON (AAON Inc.) posts a D- grade (36/100 RQD, P/E 57.7x, ROIC 9.5%, cap $5.56B). Among the 5-stock peer group, MIDD leads on earnings multiple (14.5x) while ENS leads on capital efficiency (13.0% ROIC).

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Gideon Ashmere β€’ AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MIDD?
β–Ό

Per MIDD's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2026-01-03, CIK 0000769520), Middleby Corporation generated $3.20B in revenue (+1.6% YoY), $367.3M in net income, and $559.5M in free cash flow against $6.32B in total assets and $2.13B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists β€” not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
πŸ›‘οΈ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $124.08 (+0.49%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)βš™οΈ Cash Engine: 14/20 (B-) β€’ 17.5% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit β†’
πŸ“Š Historical Track Record: Scores of 65/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.3% avg 90D alpha vs SPY β€’ 55.6% hit rate β€” wait for RQD β‰₯ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record β†’
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH β€’ C
025507510065
2-of-3 Quant Analysts Bullish
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) β€” not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw B Β· Rk D+
Cash (14)Whales (12)SEC (14)Macro (8)CEO (17)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+3.2% Base Target
$156 Bull$127 Base$99 Bear
πŸ“¬ FREE MIDD RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: β€” (No Active Options Snapshot on file for MIDD)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: Β±5.1%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (65/100 Composite)
πŸ” WHY MIDD SCORES 65/100 (C) β€” TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
β–² #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+17/20 pts (26% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 85% Net Buy β€’ Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)

β–² #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+14/20 pts (22% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 17.5% FCF Margin ($559.5M FCF) & 39.1% Gross Margin

β–Ό #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit8/20 pts (-12 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (70) create a -12 pt regime headwind

πŸ“ˆ PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 β†’ Q2 β†’ Q3 β†’ Current
Q1 (-3Q)
57
Grade C$106.16+4.6% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
60
Grade C$111.07+2.7% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
62
Grade C+$114.04+8.3% Next Q
Current
65
Grade C$123.47+1.3% Hist 90D Ξ±
Trajectory: C (57) β†’ C (65)Full Audit β†’
βš”οΈ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

βš”οΈ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the MIDD Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk β†’

Even with a 65/100 (C) score, MIDD faces multiple-compression risk if 14.5x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares) β€” any gross margin slip below 36.6% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($110.23) or 200D SMA ($120.20) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($127.36) toward Bear Floor ($99.34).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $MIDDβ€’ $2.4M Crowd Pool β€’ Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: β€œMIDD Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Jan 2, 2027) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 65%NO 35%Trade / Inspect Odds β†’
CALL VS. PUT WHALE SHARE
β€” (No Active Options Snapshot)
Put/Call Ratio: β€” (No Active Options Snapshot)
MAX-PAIN EXPIRATION MAGNET
β€” (No Active Options Snapshot)
No active options chain max-pain snapshot on file
HISTORICAL 20D VOLATILITY SWING
Β±5.1%
Derived from 20D OHLCV bars (No Active Options Snapshot)

Active Strike Call vs. Put Concentration Ladder (MIDD)

β€” (No Active Options Snapshot) β€” No unusual CBOE strike concentration anomalies recorded in the current database snapshot for MIDD.

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Whale Flow & Momentum Playbook: Evaluating MIDD & AI Leaders Without Chasing Tops

  • βœ“Institutional whale strikes & implied earnings move audit on MIDD
  • βœ“How disciplined traders manage risk using pre-published trigger & invalidation levels
  • βœ“Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on tracked leaders
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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MIDD // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +11.86%πŸ“ HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-03O $117.6H $123.5L $117.6C $123.5VOL 444.8K
RES: $144.1SUP: $99.58SMA50: $110.2SMA200: $120.2
$151.8$138.3$124.9$111.4$97.97RES $144.1SUP $99.58$123.52026-05-042026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

MIDD Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

πŸ¦‹ MIDD Butterfly Map β†’ + Track MIDD β†’
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
6.5%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +1.6% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on MIDD today. View full Setup Ledger β†’

πŸ¦‹ Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph β†’

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for MIDD. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for MIDD today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk β†’
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT β€’ SEC EDGAR XBRL Γ— RQD PEER BENCHMARK

πŸ“Š Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (MIDD)

Industrials Rank #79 of 486 βš”οΈ NOVT vs MIDD Full Matrix β†’

1. Head-to-Head Industrials Peer Comparison (MIDD vs. NOVT, AAON, JBTM, ENS)

Industry: Industrial Machinery/Components (208 Tracked Issuers)

Across 486 tracked Industrials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Middleby Corporation (MIDD) ranks #79 by composite RQD confidence (65/100, grade C) and #140 by equity capitalization ($5.38B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, MIDD leads on earnings valuation at 14.5x trailing P/E, while ENS leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 13.0% ROIC and 63.4% gross margin. MIDD currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 65/100 (C).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
MIDD ACTIVE
Middleby Corporation
C 65/100 14.5x 39.1% 9.7% +3.80% $5.38B Benchmark Subject
NOVT
Novanta Inc.
C- 59/100 106.2x 44.4% 6.5% +0.33% $5.51B /novt-vs-midd β†’
AAON
AAON Inc.
D- 36/100 57.7x 26.7% 9.5% +0.88% $5.56B /aaon-vs-midd β†’
JBTM
JBT Marel Corporation
E 26/100 β€” 35.1% 2.6% +5.14% $5.66B /jbtm-vs-midd β†’
ENS
EnerSys
C 64/100 21.0x 63.4% 13.0% +0.02% $5.77B /ens-vs-midd β†’

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K β€’ FILED 2026-01-03 β€’ CIK 0000769520 β†—

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2026-01-03), Middleby Corporation (MIDD) reported GAAP revenue of $3.20B (+1.6% vs. FY2024 revenue of $3.15B , and -1.3% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $367.3M, operating cash flow of $630.2M, and free cash flow of $559.5M (-13.9% YoY). On the balance sheet, MIDD closed FY2025 with $6.32B in total assets against $2.13B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 3.08, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2026-01-03 $3.20B $367.3M $630.2M $559.5M $6.32B $2.13B
FY2024 (FY) 2025-12-28 $3.15B $428.4M $686.8M $650.1M $7.28B $2.35B
FY2023 (FY) 2024-12-30 $3.24B $400.9M $628.8M $482.9M $3.89B $910.4M

3. MIDD Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

βœ“ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is MIDD stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Middleby Corporation (NASDAQ: MIDD) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 65/100 at a spot price of $123.47 (+3.80% 1D, market cap $5.38B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 14/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 12/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 14/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 17/20. Across 486 tracked Industrials issuers, MIDD ranks #79 in composite RQD confidence.

How does MIDD compare to NOVT and AAON in the Industrials sector?

Within the Industrials sector (Industrial Machinery/Components), MIDD carries a Roarable C (65/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 14.5x, gross margin of 39.1%, and ROIC of 9.7%. By comparison, NOVT (Novanta Inc.) holds a C- grade (59/100 RQD, P/E 106.2x, ROIC 6.5%, cap $5.51B) and AAON (AAON Inc.) posts a D- grade (36/100 RQD, P/E 57.7x, ROIC 9.5%, cap $5.56B). Among the 5-stock peer group, MIDD leads on earnings multiple (14.5x) while ENS leads on capital efficiency (13.0% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MIDD?

Per MIDD's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2026-01-03, CIK 0000769520), Middleby Corporation generated $3.20B in revenue (+1.6% YoY), $367.3M in net income, and $559.5M in free cash flow against $6.32B in total assets and $2.13B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is MIDD trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

MIDD last traded at $123.47 (+3.80% on volume of 479,279 shares), positioning the stock +12.01% above its 50-day simple moving average ($110.23) and +2.72% above its 200-day simple moving average ($120.20). Across its 52-week range of $89.16 to $148.55, MIDD sits at the 57.8% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 70.0 (OVERBOUGHT (>70)) and an implied next-earnings move of Β±5.1% ($117.17 to $129.77).

Direct Sub-Reports: MIDD RQD Cockpit MIDD 12M Forecast MIDD Earnings & Move MIDD Dividends & DRIP MIDD Insiders & 13F MIDD Whale Options MIDD Profit Sankey MIDD News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF β€’ RQD 65/100 (C) βœ“ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

MIDD β€” Middleby Corporation: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2026-01-03

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Middleby Corporation (MIDD) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 65/100, corresponding to a C letter grade (Roarable Hold) at a spot price of $123.47 (+3.80% 1D, market capitalization $5.38B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (14/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 9.7%, gross margin of 39.1%, operating margin of 18.0%, and free cash flow yield of 10.52%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (12/20) + Insider Conviction (17/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (8/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (14/20): Incorporates a 0.94x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 3.08, Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.77x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Middleby Corporation (MIDD) is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Industrials sector, classified under Industrial Machinery/Components..3B. β€” for specific product lines, customer segments, or the detailed revenue model.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2026-01-03), Middleby Corporation (MIDD) reported $3.20B in annual revenue (up from $3.15B in FY2024, +1.6% YoY) and $367.3M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($3.24B revenue, $400.9M net income) through FY2025, MIDD scaled operating cash flow to $630.2M and free cash flow to $559.5M, backed by $6.32B in total assets against $2.13B in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • πŸ‚ Primary Bull Case (C β€’ RQD 65/100): Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Free cash flow yield of 10.52% and institutional whale pillar of 12/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 14/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 12/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $89.16 – $148.55 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Investors must weigh 14.5x trailing P/E and 11.4x EV/EBITDA against 18.0% operating margins and a 0.94x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

β€” The Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph records no upstream or downstream links, no sector correlations beyond the Industrials classification, and no proprietary signals, so upstream/downstream dependencies and 2nd-order bottlenecks cannot be mapped from the provided sources.

  • Key Question #1: Can MIDD sustain or expand its 18.0% operating margin and 9.7% ROIC against Industrial Machinery/Components peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $3.20B and free cash flow of $559.5M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $2.13B in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is MIDD's 13.5x forward P/E multiple to Industrials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 0.94x)?

MIDD Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Middleby Corporation (MIDD) β€’ Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

πŸ’¬ Jump to MIDD Debate Forum (3) ↓
πŸ”₯ THE ROAR PIT β€’ LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

MIDD Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board β€” What's Your Call at $123.47?

πŸ‚ 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON MIDD 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on MIDD:
πŸ’‘ Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
BR BreakoutHunter RQD DEBATE OPENER β€’ Swing & Catalyst Trader πŸ‚ BULLISH 🎯 Target: $149.88 (+26.0%)
πŸ“Œ Pinned Debate

Insider Conviction scores 17 of 20 and the Forensic Balance Sheet is healthy (Altman Z 3.08, Piotroski F 7/9), supported by a 10.52% FC

Long MIDD at $118.95 targeting $149.88. Insider Conviction scores 17 of 20 and the Forensic Balance Sheet is healthy (Altman Z 3.08, Piotroski F 7/9), supported by a 10.52% FCF yield.. Institutional whale score is 12/20 and the risk/reward vs. the $89.16 52-week low is skewed heavily in favor of bulls.

RetailWhale_TX πŸ‚ BULL

Both sides have a point here β€” MIDD's 14/20 balance sheet score keeps downside contained, so the real swing factor next earnings call is backlog and FCF conversion.

SK SkepticalCFA RQD DEBATE OPENER β€’ Fundamental Contrarian 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $101.11 (-15.0%)
Spot @ $118.95

Macro Regime Fit scores only 8 of 20 with the sector-sensitive profile, and reported cash fell from $638.8M to $222.2M while debt remai

Sitting on the sidelines or leaning short MIDD above $118.95. Macro Regime Fit scores only 8 of 20 with the sector-sensitive profile, and reported cash fell from $638.8M to $222.2M while debt remains $2.13B.. Until Fundamental Cash Engine (14/20) and FCF yield (10.52%) inflect higher, upside is capped near $148.55.

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