MARKET WIREMorningstar • 21h ago
3 Stocks to Sell and 3 Stocks to Buy for OctoberMorningstar report covering Morningstar Inc. (MORN) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Why MORN Stock surged +5.54% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
$238.73 +5.54% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $241.68
Morningstar Inc. (MORN) earns a Roarable Rating of B+ (Buy) with 79/100 RQD Confidence. High-quality cash engine (steady margins, 23% return on capital) with steady institutional support. The company’s underlying cash engine and institutional positioning keep the composite score in the Green Buy zone.
ROARABLE B+ • BUY
Cap $8.39B
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Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on MORN Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief)
Is MORN stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Morningstar Inc. (NASDAQ: MORN) is rated B+ (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 79/100 at a spot price of $238.73 (+5.54% 1D, market cap $8.39B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 17/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 17/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 14/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 16/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, MORN ranks #11 in composite RQD confidence.
✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief)
How does MORN compare to HLI and AMG in the Financials sector?
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Within the Financials sector (Investment Managers), MORN carries a Roarable B+ (79/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 20.1x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 22.9%. By comparison, HLI (Houlihan Lokey Inc.) holds a C+ grade (69/100 RQD, P/E 23.0x, ROIC 21.6%, cap $9.64B) and AMG (Affiliated Managers Group Inc.) posts a B grade (74/100 RQD, P/E 14.4x, ROIC 14.8%, cap $9.87B). Among the 5-stock peer group, AMG leads on earnings multiple (14.4x) while EVR leads on capital efficiency (30.3% ROIC).
✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief)
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MORN?
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Per MORN's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001289419), Morningstar Inc. generated $2.45B in revenue (+7.5% YoY), $0 in net income, and $442.6M in free cash flow against $3.59B in total assets and $1.07B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $241.69 (+1.24%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 17/20 (A-) • 18.1% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 79/100 (B+) historically ranked in the Top 9% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+8.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 71.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →RQD QUANT TACHOMETERBUY • B+
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish
Cash
SEC
Whale
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw A- · Rk B
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+9.5% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for MORN)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±5.6%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (79/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY MORN SCORES 79/100 (B+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+17/20 pts (22% of score)
SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 18.1% FCF Margin ($442.6M FCF) & 61% Gross Margin
▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+17/20 pts (22% of score)
20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±5.6% realized swing band)
▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit14/20 pts (-6 pt drag)
Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (64.4) create a -6 pt regime headwind
📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)Grade B$203.96+4.8% Next Q
71
Q2 (-2Q)Grade B+$213.79+0.5% Next Q
74
Q3 (-1Q)Grade B+$214.86+11.1% Next Q
76
CurrentGrade B+$238.73+8.1% Hist 90D α
79
Trajectory: B (71) → B+ (79)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the MORN Bull Thesis Could Fail
Even with a 79/100 (B+) score, MORN faces multiple-compression risk if 20.1x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1
Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2
Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 58.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3
Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($206.35) or 200D SMA ($185.88) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($261.29) toward Bear Floor ($195.76).
🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $MORN• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “MORN Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →
Why MORN Stock surged +5.54% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
Morningstar Inc. (MORN) surged +5.54% to $238.73, trading at 99% of its 52-week range ($141.49 – $238.73). High-quality cash engine (steady margins, 23% return on capital) with steady institutional support.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 99% of its 52-week range ($141.49 – $238.73) with RSI-14 at 64.4 (BULLISH MOMENTUM).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±5.6% around $238.73 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable B+ (Buy) backed by 61% gross margin and $442.6M annual free cash flow.
Live MORN Headlines & Catalysts
MARKET WIREYahoo Finance Singapore • 1d ago
Morningstar, Inc. (MORN) stock price, news, quote and historyYahoo Finance Singapore report covering Morningstar Inc. (MORN) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
MARKET WIREMorningstar • 1d ago
What’s Ahead for Stocks This Quarter—and Where to InvestMorningstar report covering Morningstar Inc. (MORN) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
MARKET WIREYahoo Finance • 1d ago
Morningstar (MORN) Stock Is Up, What You Need To KnowYahoo Finance report covering Morningstar Inc. (MORN) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
MARKET WIRESimply Wall St • 1d ago
Morningstar (NasdaqGS:MORN) Stock Forecast & Analyst PredictionsSimply Wall St report covering Morningstar Inc. (MORN) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
MARKET WIREMorningstar • 1d ago
4 Stocks to Buy for the Long-Term While They’re Still UndervaluedMorningstar report covering Morningstar Inc. (MORN) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
MARKET WIREYahoo Finance • 1d ago
Why Morningstar (MORN) Stock Is Up TodayYahoo Finance report covering Morningstar Inc. (MORN) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
MARKET WIRESimply Wall St • 1d ago
Morningstar (MORN) Stock Rallies As Q3 Earnings Highlight Profit StrengthSimply Wall St report covering Morningstar Inc. (MORN) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
MARKET WIREYahoo • 2d ago
Here's what to expect from the stock market on Election DayIf you own stocks, you might be wondering whether the midterms will be good or bad for the market. History provides a clear answer.
CATALYSTYahoo • 3d ago
Morningstar (MORN) Posted Stronger Q3 Results, Is The Stock Already Fully Valued?Morningstar (MORN) has just released third quarter 2026 results, drawing fresh attention to the stock as investors review higher sales, net income, and earnings per share compared with the same period last year. The earn
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk
Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (MORN Tape Review)
- ✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
- ✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
- ✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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MORN // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +42.38%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-11-03O $222.5H $238.7L $222.5C $238.7VOL 218.0K
RES: $242.5SUP: $195.2SMA50: $206.4SMA200: $185.9
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
MORN Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
13.6%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. +7.5% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on MORN today. View full Setup Ledger →
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for MORN. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for MORN today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (MORN)
Financials Rank #11 of 1097
⚔️ HLI vs MORN Full Matrix →
1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (MORN vs. HLI, AMG, VCTR, EVR)
Industry: Investment Managers (79 Tracked Issuers)Across 1097 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Morningstar Inc. (MORN) ranks #11 by composite RQD confidence (79/100, grade B+) and #209 by equity capitalization ($8.39B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, AMG leads on earnings valuation at 14.4x trailing P/E, while EVR leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 30.3% ROIC and — gross margin. MORN currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 79/100 (B+).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MORN
ACTIVE
Morningstar Inc. | B+ | 79/100 | 20.1x | — | 22.9% | +5.54% | $8.39B | Benchmark Subject |
| HLI Houlihan Lokey Inc. | C+ | 69/100 | 23.0x | — | 21.6% | +6.12% | $9.64B | /hli-vs-morn → |
| AMG Affiliated Managers Group Inc. | B | 74/100 | 14.4x | — | 14.8% | -2.93% | $9.87B | /amg-vs-morn → |
| VCTR Victory Capital Holdings Inc. | B | 72/100 | 21.2x | — | 12.5% | +3.34% | $6.80B | /vctr-vs-morn → |
| EVR Evercore Inc. | B- | 71/100 | 19.3x | — | 30.3% | +4.39% | $11.17B | /evr-vs-morn → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001289419 ↗In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Morningstar Inc. (MORN) reported GAAP revenue of $2.45B (+7.5% vs. FY2024 revenue of $2.28B , and +20.0% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $0, operating cash flow of $589.7M, and free cash flow of $442.6M (-1.4% YoY). On the balance sheet, MORN closed FY2025 with $3.59B in total assets against $1.07B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $2.45B | $0 | $589.7M | $442.6M | $3.59B | $1.07B |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-31 | $2.28B | $0 | $591.6M | $448.9M | $3.55B | $698.6M |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-12-31 | $2.04B | $0 | $316.4M | $224.7M | $4.54B | $1.06B |
3. MORN Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs MORN stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-03, Morningstar Inc. (NASDAQ: MORN) is rated B+ (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 79/100 at a spot price of $238.73 (+5.54% 1D, market cap $8.39B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 17/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 17/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 14/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 16/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, MORN ranks #11 in composite RQD confidence.
How does MORN compare to HLI and AMG in the Financials sector?
Within the Financials sector (Investment Managers), MORN carries a Roarable B+ (79/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 20.1x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 22.9%. By comparison, HLI (Houlihan Lokey Inc.) holds a C+ grade (69/100 RQD, P/E 23.0x, ROIC 21.6%, cap $9.64B) and AMG (Affiliated Managers Group Inc.) posts a B grade (74/100 RQD, P/E 14.4x, ROIC 14.8%, cap $9.87B). Among the 5-stock peer group, AMG leads on earnings multiple (14.4x) while EVR leads on capital efficiency (30.3% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MORN?
Per MORN's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001289419), Morningstar Inc. generated $2.45B in revenue (+7.5% YoY), $0 in net income, and $442.6M in free cash flow against $3.59B in total assets and $1.07B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is MORN trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
MORN last traded at $238.73 (+5.54% on volume of 283,936 shares), positioning the stock +15.69% above its 50-day simple moving average ($206.35) and +28.43% above its 200-day simple moving average ($185.88). Across its 52-week range of $141.49 to $227.05, MORN sits at the 100.0% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 64.4 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±5.6% ($225.36 to $252.10).
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 79/100 (B+)
✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED
MORN — Morningstar Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor
Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31
1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor
Morningstar Inc. (MORN) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 79/100, corresponding to a B+ letter grade (Roarable Buy) at a spot price of $238.73 (+5.54% 1D, market capitalization $8.39B).
- Fundamental Cash Engine (17/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 22.9%, gross margin of —, operating margin of 21.5%, and free cash flow yield of 5.36%.
- Whale 13F & Options Flow (17/20) + Insider Conviction (16/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
- Macro Regime Fit (14/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (15/20): Incorporates a 1.06x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.
2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory
Morningstar Inc. Is a NASDAQ-listed issuer classified under the Financials sector and the Investment Managers industry,. Per the financials section, the company reported revenue of $2.45B for FY 2025. Market capitalization is $8.3B.
In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Morningstar Inc. (MORN) reported $2.45B in annual revenue (up from $2.28B in FY2024, +7.5% YoY) and $0 in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($2.04B revenue, $0 net income) through FY2025, MORN scaled operating cash flow to $589.7M and free cash flow to $442.6M, backed by $3.59B in total assets against $1.07B in total debt.
3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff
- 🐂 Primary Bull Case (B+ • RQD 79/100): Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 17/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 17/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $141.49 – $227.05 52-week range.
- 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Investors must weigh 20.1x trailing P/E and 13.6x EV/EBITDA against 21.5% operating margins and a 1.06x macro beta.
4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch
Operating in Investment Managers (Financials), MORN carries a macro regime beta of 1.06 and gross margin of —.
- Key Question #1: Can MORN sustain or expand its 21.5% operating margin and 22.9% ROIC against Investment Managers peers over the next 4 quarters?
- Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $2.45B and free cash flow of $442.6M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $1.07B in total debt?
- Key Question #3: How sensitive is MORN's 18.7x forward P/E multiple to Financials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.06x)?
MORN Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire
Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Morningstar Inc. (MORN) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below
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3 Stocks to Sell and 3 Stocks to Buy for October Morningstar report covering Morningstar Inc. (MORN) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
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🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE
3 Active Posts & Replies
MORN Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $238.73?
🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON MORN 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
MI MidwestValue RQD DEBATE OPENER • Fundamental Long-Only 🐂 BULLISH
🎯 Target: $260.12 (+15.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate Per the RQD rating, a 22.9% ROIC and 5.36% FCF yield sit alongside a 17/20 institutional-flow pillar, pointing to efficient capital use
Per the RQD rating, a 22.9% ROIC and 5.36% FCF yield sit alongside a 17/20 institutional-flow pillar, pointing to efficient capital use and visible accumulation.. When you look under the hood at MORN, Fundamental Cash Engine is 17/20 with 0.0% gross margins and 22.9% ROIC. Bears are staring in the rearview mirror while institutional 13F flow (17/20) has been quietly accumulating below $227.05. My 12M target is $260.12.
VolSurface_Trader 🐂 BULL
Both sides have a point here — MORN's 15/20 balance sheet score keeps downside contained, so the real swing factor next earnings call is backlog and FCF conversion.
RI RiskArb_Desk RQD DEBATE OPENER • Hedged Event Driven 🐻 BEARISH
🎯 Target: $183.21 (-19.0%)
Spot @ $226.19 Debt rose from $698.6M to $1.07B across FY 2024 to FY 2025 while reported net income remains $0.0M, leaving the earnings base unverif
Here is the bear case nobody on the bull side wants to address on MORN: Debt rose from $698.6M to $1.07B across FY 2024 to FY 2025 while reported net income remains $0.0M, leaving the earnings base unverified.. At 20.1x trailing P/E, even a small guidance miss in Investment Managers triggers a 12-15% air pocket.