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TRP (65) SRE (56) TRGP (73) KMI (67) ⌘ Pro Terminal β†’

MPLX LP Common (MPLX) Options Positioning, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps

$58.94 -2.03% NYSE β€’ Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $58.87

MPLX LP Common (MPLX) earns a Roarable Rating of B+ (Buy) with 76/100 RQD Confidence. High-quality cash engine (steady margins, 19% return on capital) with steady institutional support. The company’s underlying cash engine and institutional positioning keep the composite score in the Green Buy zone.

ROARABLE B+ β€’ BUY Cap $60.72B
πŸ“€ Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚑ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW β€’ $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on MPLX Below β€” or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
πŸ€– Mara Quenwick β€’ AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is MPLX stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
β–Ό

As of 2026-11-03, MPLX LP Common (NYSE: MPLX) is rated B+ (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 76/100 at a spot price of $58.94 (-2.03% 1D, market cap $60.72B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 14/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 15/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 14/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 15/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 18/20. Across 211 tracked Energy issuers, MPLX ranks #11 in composite RQD confidence.

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Ellis Vennor β€’ AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does MPLX compare to TRP and SRE in the Energy sector?
β–Ό

Within the Energy sector (Natural Gas Distribution), MPLX carries a Roarable B+ (76/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 13.1x, gross margin of β€”, and ROIC of 19.3%. By comparison, TRP (TC Energy Corporation) holds a C grade (65/100 RQD, P/E 32.8x, ROIC 9.9%, cap $64.50B) and SRE (DBA Sempra) posts a D+ grade (56/100 RQD, P/E 30.6x, ROIC 3.3%, cap $56.27B). Among the 5-stock peer group, MPLX leads on earnings multiple (13.1x) while TRGP leads on capital efficiency (33.0% ROIC).

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Gideon Ashmere β€’ AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MPLX?
β–Ό

Per MPLX's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001552000), MPLX LP Common generated $9.73B in revenue (+5.8% YoY), $0 in net income, and $4.10B in free cash flow against $43.01B in total assets and $12.81B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists β€” not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
πŸ›‘οΈ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $58.86 (-0.13%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.92% YoY Shares)βš™οΈ Cash Engine: 14/20 (B-) β€’ 42.2% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit β†’
πŸ“Š Historical Track Record: Scores of 76/100 (B+) historically ranked in the Top 11% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+7.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY β€’ 70.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record β†’
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERBUY β€’ B+
025507510076
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) β€” not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw B+ Β· Rk B
Cash (14)Whales (15)SEC (14)Macro (15)CEO (18)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+8.1% Base Target
$75 Bull$64 Base$48 Bear
πŸ“¬ FREE MPLX RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: β€” (No Active Options Snapshot on file for MPLX)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: Β±3.6%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (76/100 Composite)
πŸ” WHY MPLX SCORES 76/100 (B+) β€” TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
β–² #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+18/20 pts (24% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 86% Net Buy β€’ Cannibal Buyback (-2.92% YoY Shares)

β–² #2 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+15/20 pts (20% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (Β±3.6% realized swing band)

β–Ό #1 Drag / Risk Factor: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk14/20 pts (-6 pt drag)

Balance-sheet & 10-K footnote risk deducts 6 pts from forensic ceiling

πŸ“ˆ PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 β†’ Q2 β†’ Q3 β†’ Current
Q1 (-3Q)
68
Grade B-$56.83+2.4% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
71
Grade B$58.18+0.8% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
73
Grade B$58.65+0.5% Next Q
Current
76
Grade B+$58.94+7.6% Hist 90D Ξ±
Trajectory: B- (68) β†’ B+ (76)Full Audit β†’
βš”οΈ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

βš”οΈ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the MPLX Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk β†’

Even with a 76/100 (B+) score, MPLX faces multiple-compression risk if 13.1x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.92% YoY Shares) β€” any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($58.40) or 200D SMA ($57.25) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($63.71) toward Bear Floor ($48.33).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $MPLXβ€’ $2.4M Crowd Pool β€’ Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: β€œMPLX Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 76%NO 24%Trade / Inspect Odds β†’
CALL VS. PUT WHALE SHARE
β€” (No Active Options Snapshot)
Put/Call Ratio: β€” (No Active Options Snapshot)
MAX-PAIN EXPIRATION MAGNET
β€” (No Active Options Snapshot)
No active options chain max-pain snapshot on file
HISTORICAL 20D VOLATILITY SWING
Β±3.6%
Derived from 20D OHLCV bars (No Active Options Snapshot)

Active Strike Call vs. Put Concentration Ladder (MPLX)

β€” (No Active Options Snapshot) β€” No unusual CBOE strike concentration anomalies recorded in the current database snapshot for MPLX.

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FTC Disclosure: Roarable may receive partner referral compensation at no cost to you. Partner relationships never influence RQD scores.

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Whale Flow & Momentum Playbook: Evaluating MPLX & AI Leaders Without Chasing Tops

  • βœ“Institutional whale strikes & implied earnings move audit on MPLX
  • βœ“How disciplined traders manage risk using pre-published trigger & invalidation levels
  • βœ“Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on tracked leaders
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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MPLX // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +3.10%πŸ“ HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-01O $58.93H $59.89L $58.93C $58.94VOL 1.08M
RES: $62.03SUP: $56.12SMA50: $58.40SMA200: $57.25
$61.48$59.29$57.10$54.91$52.72RES $62.03SUP $56.12$58.942026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-172026-11-01
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

MPLX Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

πŸ¦‹ MPLX Butterfly Map β†’ + Track MPLX β†’
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
4.3%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +5.8% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on MPLX today. View full Setup Ledger β†’

πŸ¦‹ Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph β†’

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for MPLX. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for MPLX today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk β†’
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT β€’ SEC EDGAR XBRL Γ— RQD PEER BENCHMARK

πŸ“Š Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (MPLX)

Energy Rank #11 of 211 βš”οΈ TRP vs MPLX Full Matrix β†’

1. Head-to-Head Energy Peer Comparison (MPLX vs. TRP, SRE, TRGP, KMI)

Industry: Natural Gas Distribution (25 Tracked Issuers)

Across 211 tracked Energy securities in the Roarable RQD universe, MPLX LP Common (MPLX) ranks #11 by composite RQD confidence (76/100, grade B+) and #30 by equity capitalization ($60.72B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, MPLX leads on earnings valuation at 13.1x trailing P/E, while TRGP leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 33.0% ROIC and 38.3% gross margin. MPLX currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 76/100 (B+).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
MPLX ACTIVE
MPLX LP Common
B+ 76/100 13.1x β€” 19.3% -2.03% $60.72B Benchmark Subject
TRP
TC Energy Corporation
C 65/100 32.8x β€” 9.9% -1.35% $64.50B /trp-vs-mplx β†’
SRE
DBA Sempra
D+ 56/100 30.6x β€” 3.3% -0.10% $56.27B /sre-vs-mplx β†’
TRGP
Targa Resources Inc.
B 73/100 34.8x 38.3% 33.0% -6.43% $67.54B /trgp-vs-mplx β†’
KMI
Kinder Morgan Inc.
C+ 67/100 24.8x β€” 6.0% -3.42% $75.45B /kmi-vs-mplx β†’

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K β€’ FILED 2025-12-31 β€’ CIK 0001552000 β†—

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), MPLX LP Common (MPLX) reported GAAP revenue of $9.73B (+5.8% vs. FY2024 revenue of $9.19B , and +11.4% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $0, operating cash flow of $5.91B, and free cash flow of $4.10B (-16.1% YoY). On the balance sheet, MPLX closed FY2025 with $43.01B in total assets against $12.81B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 2.17, Piotroski F-Score: 8/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $9.73B $0 $5.91B $4.10B $43.01B $12.81B
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $9.19B $0 $5.95B $4.89B $37.51B $10.58B
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $8.73B $3.93B $5.40B $5.00B $33.40B $7.81B

3. MPLX Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

βœ“ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is MPLX stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, MPLX LP Common (NYSE: MPLX) is rated B+ (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 76/100 at a spot price of $58.94 (-2.03% 1D, market cap $60.72B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 14/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 15/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 14/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 15/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 18/20. Across 211 tracked Energy issuers, MPLX ranks #11 in composite RQD confidence.

How does MPLX compare to TRP and SRE in the Energy sector?

Within the Energy sector (Natural Gas Distribution), MPLX carries a Roarable B+ (76/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 13.1x, gross margin of β€”, and ROIC of 19.3%. By comparison, TRP (TC Energy Corporation) holds a C grade (65/100 RQD, P/E 32.8x, ROIC 9.9%, cap $64.50B) and SRE (DBA Sempra) posts a D+ grade (56/100 RQD, P/E 30.6x, ROIC 3.3%, cap $56.27B). Among the 5-stock peer group, MPLX leads on earnings multiple (13.1x) while TRGP leads on capital efficiency (33.0% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MPLX?

Per MPLX's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001552000), MPLX LP Common generated $9.73B in revenue (+5.8% YoY), $0 in net income, and $4.10B in free cash flow against $43.01B in total assets and $12.81B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is MPLX trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

MPLX last traded at $58.94 (-2.03% on volume of 2,383,500 shares), positioning the stock +0.92% above its 50-day simple moving average ($58.40) and +2.95% above its 200-day simple moving average ($57.25). Across its 52-week range of $50.22 to $60.95, MPLX sits at the 81.3% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 61.2 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of Β±3.6% ($56.82 to $61.06).

Direct Sub-Reports: MPLX RQD Cockpit MPLX 12M Forecast MPLX Earnings & Move MPLX Dividends & DRIP MPLX Insiders & 13F MPLX Whale Options MPLX Profit Sankey MPLX News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF β€’ RQD 76/100 (B+) βœ“ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

MPLX β€” MPLX LP Common: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

MPLX LP Common (MPLX) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 76/100, corresponding to a B+ letter grade (Roarable Buy) at a spot price of $58.94 (-2.03% 1D, market capitalization $60.72B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (14/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 19.3%, gross margin of β€”, operating margin of 61.1%, and free cash flow yield of 6.75%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (15/20) + Insider Conviction (18/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (15/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (14/20): Incorporates a 0.89x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 2.17, Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.82x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

MPLX LP Common is a NYSE-listed issuer classified in the Energy sector and the Natural Gas Distribution industry, with a market capitalization of $60.7B. β€” for detailed product lines, customer segments, or revenue model. The company reported revenue of $9.73B for FY 2025 and an operating margin of 61.1% per the market data.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), MPLX LP Common (MPLX) reported $9.73B in annual revenue (up from $9.19B in FY2024, +5.8% YoY) and $0 in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($8.73B revenue, $3.93B net income) through FY2025, MPLX scaled operating cash flow to $5.91B and free cash flow to $4.10B, backed by $43.01B in total assets against $12.81B in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • πŸ‚ Primary Bull Case (B+ β€’ RQD 76/100): Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side. Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 14/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 15/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $50.22 – $60.95 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Investors must weigh 13.1x trailing P/E and 9.4x EV/EBITDA against 61.1% operating margins and a 0.89x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Operating in Natural Gas Distribution (Energy), MPLX carries a macro regime beta of 0.89 and gross margin of β€”.

  • Key Question #1: Can MPLX sustain or expand its 61.1% operating margin and 19.3% ROIC against Natural Gas Distribution peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $9.73B and free cash flow of $4.10B, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $12.81B in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is MPLX's 12.2x forward P/E multiple to Energy capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 0.89x)?

MPLX Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for MPLX LP Common (MPLX) β€’ Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

πŸ’¬ Jump to MPLX Debate Forum (3) ↓
πŸ”₯ THE ROAR PIT β€’ LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

MPLX Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board β€” What's Your Call at $58.94?

πŸ‚ 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON MPLX 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on MPLX:
πŸ’‘ Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
DE DeltaGamma_99 RQD DEBATE OPENER β€’ Options Flow Specialist πŸ‚ BULLISH 🎯 Target: $71.87 (+20.0%)
πŸ“Œ Pinned Debate

Strong cash engine metrics (ROIC 19.3%, FCF yield 6.75%) combined with 18/20 insider-conviction pillar and 13.1x TTM P/E support the Ro

Long MPLX at $59.89 targeting $71.87. Strong cash engine metrics (ROIC 19.3%, FCF yield 6.75%) combined with 18/20 insider-conviction pillar and 13.1x TTM P/E support the Roarable Buy verdict.. Institutional whale score is 15/20 and the risk/reward vs. the $50.22 52-week low is skewed heavily in favor of bulls.

EarningsSniper πŸ‚ BULL

Both sides have a point here β€” MPLX's 14/20 balance sheet score keeps downside contained, so the real swing factor next earnings call is backlog and FCF conversion.

FA FadeTheHype RQD DEBATE OPENER β€’ Contrarian Tape Reader 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $46.71 (-22.0%)
Spot @ $59.89

Reported debt rose from $7.81B to $12.81B while free cash flow fell from $5.00B to $4.10B, and net income is reported as $0.0M

Here is the bear case nobody on the bull side wants to address on MPLX: Reported debt rose from $7.81B to $12.81B while free cash flow fell from $5.00B to $4.10B, and net income is reported as $0.0M for two recent periods.. At 13.1x trailing P/E, even a small guidance miss in Natural Gas Distribution triggers a 12-15% air pocket.

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