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Medical Properties Trust Inc. (MPT) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±12.5% Move

$2.02 -7.34% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $1.99

Medical Properties Trust Inc. (MPT) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 39/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D- • RED ALERT Cap $1.30B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is MPT stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
▼

As of 2026-11-03, Medical Properties Trust Inc. (NYSE: MPT) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 39/100 at a spot price of $2.02 (-7.34% 1D, market cap $1.30B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 7/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 5/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 11/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 7/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 9/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, MPT ranks #922 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does MPT compare to UMH and ALX in the Financials sector?
▼

Within the Financials sector (Real Estate Investment Trusts), MPT carries a Roarable D- (39/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -6.0%. By comparison, UMH (UMH Properties Inc.) holds a D grade (49/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 0.7%, cap $1.30B) and ALX (Alexander's Inc.) posts a C grade (64/100 RQD, P/E 45.1x, ROIC 25.9%, cap $1.28B). Among the 5-stock peer group, ALX leads on earnings multiple (45.1x) while ALX leads on capital efficiency (25.9% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MPT?
▼

Per MPT's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001287865), Medical Properties Trust Inc. generated $972.0M in revenue (-2.4% YoY), -$277.0M in net income, and $230.8M in free cash flow against $15.00B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $1.99 (-1.51%)🧬 Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 7/20 (D-) • 23.7% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (39/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-7.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • D-
025507510039
2-of-3 Quant Analysts Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw D- · Rk D
Cash (7)Whales (5)SEC (11)Macro (7)CEO (9)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-8.4% Base Target
$7 Bull$2 Base$1 Bear
📬 FREE MPT RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for MPT)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (39/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY MPT SCORES 39/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+11/20 pts (28% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 4/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+9/20 pts (23% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 45% Net Buy • Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning5/20 pts (-15 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-15 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
47
Grade D$3.06-14.1% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
44
Grade D$2.63+4.6% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
42
Grade D$2.75-26.5% Next Q
Current
39
Grade D-$2.02-7.6% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: D (47) → D- (39)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a MPT Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While MPT currently carries a cautious 39/100 (D-) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (5/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($3.31) and Max Pain ($2.12) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $6.79.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $MPT• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “MPT Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 39%NO 61%Trade / Inspect Odds →
NEXT EST. WINDOW: Dec 30, 2026 (~55 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±12.5% Swing Band

±$0.25 Expected Swing
$1.77 (-12.5%)Spot $2.02$2.27 (+12.5%)
MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

MPT Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 39/100

Trailing EPS: $4.25 • YoY Revenue Growth: -2.4%

Model Bullish Setup (39/100)Model Risk Weight (61/100)
Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).
LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

PeriodFiledRevenueNet ProfitFree Cash FlowGross Margin
FY 20252025-12-31$972.0M-$277.0M$230.8M52%
FY 20242024-12-31$995.5M-$2.41B$245.5M52%
FY 20232023-12-31$871.8M-$556.5M$505.8M52%
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring MPT)

  • ✓Walkthrough of MPT's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
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MPT // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -59.84%▼ SUPPORT BREAKDOWN
2026-11-04O $2.25H $2.25L $2.02C $2.02VOL 36.68M
RES: $4.34SUP: $2.61SMA50: $3.31SMA200: $4.52
$5.60$4.63$3.66$2.69$1.72RES $4.34SUP $2.61$2.022026-05-052026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-04
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

MPT Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 MPT Butterfly Map → + Track MPT →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -2.4% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on MPT today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for MPT. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for MPT today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (MPT)

Financials Rank #922 of 1097 ⚔️ UMH vs MPT Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (MPT vs. UMH, ALX, AAT, UNIT)

Industry: Real Estate Investment Trusts (172 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1097 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Medical Properties Trust Inc. (MPT) ranks #922 by composite RQD confidence (39/100, grade D-) and #511 by equity capitalization ($1.30B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, ALX leads on earnings valuation at 45.1x trailing P/E, while ALX leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 25.9% ROIC and — gross margin. ALX currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 64/100 (C) compared with MPT at 39/100 (D-).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
MPT ACTIVE
Medical Properties Trust Inc.
D- 39/100 — — -6.0% -7.34% $1.30B Benchmark Subject
UMH
UMH Properties Inc.
D 49/100 — — 0.7% -3.40% $1.30B /umh-vs-mpt →
ALX
Alexander's Inc.
C 64/100 45.1x — 25.9% -4.30% $1.28B /alx-vs-mpt →
AAT
American Assets Trust Inc.
D+ 57/100 — — 11.3% -0.73% $1.34B /aat-vs-mpt →
UNIT
Uniti Group Inc.
E 30/100 — — 2.1% +2.43% $1.20B /unit-vs-mpt →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001287865 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Medical Properties Trust Inc. (MPT) reported GAAP revenue of $972.0M (-2.4% vs. FY2024 revenue of $995.5M , and +11.5% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$277.0M, operating cash flow of $230.8M, and free cash flow of $230.8M (-6.0% YoY). On the balance sheet, MPT closed FY2025 with $15.00B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $972.0M -$277.0M $230.8M $230.8M $15.00B —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $995.5M -$2.41B $245.5M $245.5M $14.29B —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $871.8M -$556.5M $505.8M $505.8M — —

3. MPT Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is MPT stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Medical Properties Trust Inc. (NYSE: MPT) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 39/100 at a spot price of $2.02 (-7.34% 1D, market cap $1.30B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 7/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 5/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 11/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 7/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 9/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, MPT ranks #922 in composite RQD confidence.

How does MPT compare to UMH and ALX in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Real Estate Investment Trusts), MPT carries a Roarable D- (39/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -6.0%. By comparison, UMH (UMH Properties Inc.) holds a D grade (49/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 0.7%, cap $1.30B) and ALX (Alexander's Inc.) posts a C grade (64/100 RQD, P/E 45.1x, ROIC 25.9%, cap $1.28B). Among the 5-stock peer group, ALX leads on earnings multiple (45.1x) while ALX leads on capital efficiency (25.9% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MPT?

Per MPT's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001287865), Medical Properties Trust Inc. generated $972.0M in revenue (-2.4% YoY), -$277.0M in net income, and $230.8M in free cash flow against $15.00B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is MPT trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

MPT last traded at $2.02 (-7.34% on volume of 42,685,428 shares), positioning the stock -38.97% below its 50-day simple moving average ($3.31) and -55.31% below its 200-day simple moving average ($4.52). Across its 52-week range of $2.06 to $6.47, MPT sits at the 0.0% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 25.1 (OVERSOLD (<32)) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($1.77 to $2.27).

Direct Sub-Reports: MPT RQD Cockpit MPT 12M Forecast MPT Earnings & Move MPT Dividends & DRIP MPT Insiders & 13F MPT Whale Options MPT Profit Sankey MPT News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 39/100 (D-) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

MPT — Medical Properties Trust Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Medical Properties Trust Inc. (MPT) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 39/100, corresponding to a D- letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $2.02 (-7.34% 1D, market capitalization $1.30B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (7/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of -6.0%, gross margin of —, operating margin of —, and free cash flow yield of 15.84%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (5/20) + Insider Conviction (9/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (7/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (11/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 4/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Medical Properties Trust Inc. Is listed on the NYSE and classified in the Financials sector, Real Estate Investment Trusts industry. Net margin is reported at -28.5% and FCF yield at 15.84%.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Medical Properties Trust Inc. (MPT) reported $972.0M in annual revenue (up from $995.5M in FY2024, -2.4% YoY) and -$277.0M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($871.8M revenue, -$556.5M net income) through FY2025, MPT scaled operating cash flow to $230.8M and free cash flow to $230.8M, backed by $15.00B in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D- • RQD 39/100): Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of 15.84% and institutional whale pillar of 5/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 7/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 5/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $2.06 – $6.47 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation against — operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

No upstream or downstream supply-chain dependencies are reported, and the links array is empty. Sector correlation data beyond the Financials / Real Estate Investment Trusts classification is — The main second-order observation an investor should track is that the stock's reported beta of 1.0 and its sector classification mean its price path is linked to broader REIT and market conditions, though the source does not quantify those correlations.

  • Key Question #1: Can MPT sustain or expand its — operating margin and -6.0% ROIC against Real Estate Investment Trusts peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $972.0M and free cash flow of $230.8M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is MPT's equity valuation to Financials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

MPT Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Medical Properties Trust Inc. (MPT) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to MPT Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

MPT Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $2.02?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON MPT 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on MPT:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
MI MidwestValue RQD DEBATE OPENER • Fundamental Long-Only 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $2.63 (+16.9%)
📌 Pinned Debate

The reported 15.84% FCF yield at a $2.44 share price suggests cash generation is high relative to market value, a potential upside driv

The street is overcomplicating Medical Properties Trust Inc. (MPT). The reported 15.84% FCF yield at a $2.44 share price suggests cash generation is high relative to market value, a potential upside driver if it proves durable.. With an RQD score of 39/100 (D-) and Forensic Balance Sheet at 11/20, any positive earnings surprise or guidance raise forces underweight funds to chase above $2.43.

CapAlloc_Nerd 🐂 BULL

@MidwestValue Agree on the RQD 39/100 quality, though with 1.0 beta I'm scaling in with half-size at $2.25 and keeping dry powder in case we test $2.09.

MU MultipleCompression RQD DEBATE OPENER • Valuation Discipline 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $1.69 (-24.9%)
Spot @ $2.25

Negative ROIC of -6%, a -28.5% net margin, and an institutional-flow pillar score of 4/20 indicate weak capital returns and limited sus

Careful chasing MPT at $2.25. Negative ROIC of -6%, a -28.5% net margin, and an institutional-flow pillar score of 4/20 indicate weak capital returns and limited sustained institutional conviction.. Gross margin is 0.0%, but operating margin is 0.0%, which shows SG&A and reinvestment are eating into bottom-line EPS. Target $1.69 on multiple compression.

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