ROARABLE
FREE $100K
My Trading Account →
▾
Trading Profile Active
Active Trader
Verified Trader
⚡ My $100K Trading Account → ★ My Saved Watchlist →
🟢 My $100K Account → Today Screener Big Ideas Track Record 💰 $100K Arena 🎲 Predictions 🏛️ Insiders 8 Analysts
Stock Ratings / Financials / MTB / options
HBAN (61) SHG (51) NTRS (66) BBD (52) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

M&T Bank Corporation (MTB) Options Positioning, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps

$224.43 +1.68% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $224.68

M&T Bank Corporation (MTB) carries a Roarable Rating of C- (Hold) with 60/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

ROARABLE C- • HOLD / WATCH Cap $31.88B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on MTB Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is MTB stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
▼

As of 2026-11-03, M&T Bank Corporation (NYSE: MTB) is rated C- (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 60/100 at a spot price of $224.43 (+1.68% 1D, market cap $31.88B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 10/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 10/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 17/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, MTB ranks #378 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does MTB compare to HBAN and SHG in the Financials sector?
▼

Within the Financials sector (Major Banks), MTB carries a Roarable C- (60/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 11.4x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 3.4%. By comparison, HBAN (Huntington Bancshares Incorporated) holds a C- grade (61/100 RQD, P/E 14.6x, ROIC 2.6%, cap $31.80B) and SHG (Shinhan Financial Group Co Ltd) posts a D grade (51/100 RQD, P/E 32.8x, ROIC 9.9%, cap $30.79B). Among the 5-stock peer group, MTB leads on earnings multiple (11.4x) while SHG leads on capital efficiency (9.9% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MTB?
▼

Per MTB's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000036270), M&T Bank Corporation generated $1.66B in revenue (+7.5% YoY), $2.85B in net income, and $2.93B in free cash flow against $213.51B in total assets and $82.95B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $224.68 (+0.11%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 10/20 (D) • 176.7% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 60/100 (C-) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 53.5% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C-
025507510060
Quant Analyst Panel Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw C · Rk D+
Cash (10)Whales (10)SEC (15)Macro (8)CEO (17)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+0.9% Base Target
$269 Bull$226 Base$177 Bear
📬 FREE MTB RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for MTB)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±4.1%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (60/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY MTB SCORES 60/100 (C-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+17/20 pts (28% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 85% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+15/20 pts (25% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 8/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit8/20 pts (-12 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (47.7) create a -12 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
52
Grade C-$216.05+1.6% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
55
Grade C$219.51+0.3% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
57
Grade C$220.20+1.9% Next Q
Current
60
Grade C-$224.43+0.4% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C- (52) → C- (60)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the MTB Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 60/100 (C-) score, MTB faces multiple-compression risk if 11.4x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($225.17) or 200D SMA ($225.24) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($226.45) toward Bear Floor ($176.63).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $MTB• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “MTB Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 60%NO 40%Trade / Inspect Odds →
CALL VS. PUT WHALE SHARE
— (No Active Options Snapshot)
Put/Call Ratio: — (No Active Options Snapshot)
MAX-PAIN EXPIRATION MAGNET
— (No Active Options Snapshot)
No active options chain max-pain snapshot on file
HISTORICAL 20D VOLATILITY SWING
±4.1%
Derived from 20D OHLCV bars (No Active Options Snapshot)

Active Strike Call vs. Put Concentration Ladder (MTB)

— (No Active Options Snapshot) — No unusual CBOE strike concentration anomalies recorded in the current database snapshot for MTB.

Sponsored / Partner SpotlightACTIVE TRADER & PROP EVALUATION DESK

Practice in Our Weekly $100,000 Paper Arena Before Risking Personal Capital

Keep your personal nest egg in cash while trading NQ, ES, Crude, and Gold momentum using institutional prop-desk buying power.

FTC Disclosure: Roarable may receive partner referral compensation at no cost to you. Partner relationships never influence RQD scores.

🏆 Enter Free $100K Paper Arena →
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher + Options & Swing Structure Desk

Whale Flow & Momentum Playbook: Evaluating MTB & AI Leaders Without Chasing Tops

  • ✓Institutional whale strikes & implied earnings move audit on MTB
  • ✓How disciplined traders manage risk using pre-published trigger & invalidation levels
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on tracked leaders
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?
Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena
MTB // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +4.83%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-03O $224.1H $224.4L $220.7C $224.4VOL 765.3K
RES: $229.0SUP: $203.6SMA50: $225.2SMA200: $225.2
$259.7$244.2$228.7$213.2$197.7RES $229.0SUP $203.6$224.42026-05-042026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

MTB Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 MTB Butterfly Map → + Track MTB →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
1.5%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +7.5% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on MTB today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for MTB. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for MTB today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (MTB)

Financials Rank #378 of 1097 ⚔️ HBAN vs MTB Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (MTB vs. HBAN, SHG, NTRS, BBD)

Industry: Major Banks (248 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1097 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, M&T Bank Corporation (MTB) ranks #378 by composite RQD confidence (60/100, grade C-) and #88 by equity capitalization ($31.88B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, MTB leads on earnings valuation at 11.4x trailing P/E, while SHG leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 9.9% ROIC and — gross margin. NTRS currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 66/100 (C+) compared with MTB at 60/100 (C-).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
MTB ACTIVE
M&T Bank Corporation
C- 60/100 11.4x — 3.4% +1.68% $31.88B Benchmark Subject
HBAN
Huntington Bancshares Incorporated
C- 61/100 14.6x — 2.6% +1.46% $31.80B /hban-vs-mtb →
SHG
Shinhan Financial Group Co Ltd
D 51/100 32.8x — 9.9% -1.95% $30.79B /shg-vs-mtb →
NTRS
Northern Trust Corporation
C+ 66/100 18.2x — 2.8% +0.89% $30.64B /ntrs-vs-mtb →
BBD
Banco Bradesco Sa
D+ 52/100 32.8x — 9.9% +0.39% $28.55B /bbd-vs-mtb →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000036270 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), M&T Bank Corporation (MTB) reported GAAP revenue of $1.66B (+7.5% vs. FY2024 revenue of $1.54B , and +11.7% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $2.85B, operating cash flow of $3.00B, and free cash flow of $2.93B (-17.3% YoY). On the balance sheet, MTB closed FY2025 with $213.51B in total assets against $82.95B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 8/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $1.66B $2.85B $3.00B $2.93B $213.51B $82.95B
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $1.54B $2.59B $3.61B $3.54B $208.10B $80.59B
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $1.48B $2.74B $3.90B $3.84B $17.80B $4.16B

3. MTB Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is MTB stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, M&T Bank Corporation (NYSE: MTB) is rated C- (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 60/100 at a spot price of $224.43 (+1.68% 1D, market cap $31.88B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 10/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 10/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 17/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, MTB ranks #378 in composite RQD confidence.

How does MTB compare to HBAN and SHG in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Major Banks), MTB carries a Roarable C- (60/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 11.4x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 3.4%. By comparison, HBAN (Huntington Bancshares Incorporated) holds a C- grade (61/100 RQD, P/E 14.6x, ROIC 2.6%, cap $31.80B) and SHG (Shinhan Financial Group Co Ltd) posts a D grade (51/100 RQD, P/E 32.8x, ROIC 9.9%, cap $30.79B). Among the 5-stock peer group, MTB leads on earnings multiple (11.4x) while SHG leads on capital efficiency (9.9% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MTB?

Per MTB's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000036270), M&T Bank Corporation generated $1.66B in revenue (+7.5% YoY), $2.85B in net income, and $2.93B in free cash flow against $213.51B in total assets and $82.95B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is MTB trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

MTB last traded at $224.43 (+1.68% on volume of 741,255 shares), positioning the stock -0.33% below its 50-day simple moving average ($225.17) and -0.36% below its 200-day simple moving average ($225.24). Across its 52-week range of $179.75 to $255.95, MTB sits at the 58.6% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 47.7 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±4.1% ($215.23 to $233.63).

Direct Sub-Reports: MTB RQD Cockpit MTB 12M Forecast MTB Earnings & Move MTB Dividends & DRIP MTB Insiders & 13F MTB Whale Options MTB Profit Sankey MTB News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 60/100 (C-) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

MTB — M&T Bank Corporation: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

M&T Bank Corporation (MTB) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 60/100, corresponding to a C- letter grade (Roarable Hold) at a spot price of $224.43 (+1.68% 1D, market capitalization $31.88B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (10/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 3.4%, gross margin of —, operating margin of 75.0%, and free cash flow yield of 9.05%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (10/20) + Insider Conviction (17/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (8/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (15/20): Incorporates a 1.11x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

M&T Bank Corporation (MTB) is a NYSE-listed issuer in the Financials sector, Major Banks industry..4B.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), M&T Bank Corporation (MTB) reported $1.66B in annual revenue (up from $1.54B in FY2024, +7.5% YoY) and $2.85B in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($1.48B revenue, $2.74B net income) through FY2025, MTB scaled operating cash flow to $3.00B and free cash flow to $2.93B, backed by $213.51B in total assets against $82.95B in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (C- • RQD 60/100): Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 10/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 10/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $179.75 – $255.95 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Investors must weigh 11.4x trailing P/E and 23.8x EV/EBITDA against 75.0% operating margins and a 1.11x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Upstream and downstream dependencies, sector correlations, and second-order bottlenecks are therefore — The only sector context provided is the Financials / Major Banks classification and the beta of 1.11 from the market data.

  • Key Question #1: Can MTB sustain or expand its 75.0% operating margin and 3.4% ROIC against Major Banks peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $1.66B and free cash flow of $2.93B, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $82.95B in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is MTB's 10.6x forward P/E multiple to Financials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.11x)?

MTB Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for M&T Bank Corporation (MTB) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to MTB Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

MTB Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $224.43?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON MTB 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on MTB:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
BR BreakoutHunter RQD DEBATE OPENER • Swing & Catalyst Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $278.11 (+26.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Insider conviction (17/20) and forensic balance-sheet strength (Piotroski F 8/9, Altman Z 2.5) are the highest-scoring elements of the

Long MTB at $220.72 targeting $278.11. Insider conviction (17/20) and forensic balance-sheet strength (Piotroski F 8/9, Altman Z 2.5) are the highest-scoring elements of the RQD rating.. Institutional whale score is 10/20 and the risk/reward vs. the $179.75 52-week low is skewed heavily in favor of bulls.

ArenaChamp_24 🐂 BULL

@MeanReversion_88 Fair point on 11.4x trailing P/E, but you're ignoring the forward operating leverage in Major Banks. If gross margin (0.0%) holds, EPS grows into the multiple faster than bears think.

ME MeanReversion_88 RQD DEBATE OPENER • Quantitative Statistical Arb 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $189.82 (-14.0%)
Spot @ $220.72

ROIC of 3.4% and a macro-regime fit score of 9/20 with beta 1.11 indicate weak return on capital and above-market sensitivity.

I respect the product at M&T Bank Corporation, but the stock at $220.72 is a different story. ROIC of 3.4% and a macro-regime fit score of 9/20 with beta 1.11 indicate weak return on capital and above-market sensitivity.. FCF yield is 9.05% and RQD sits at 60/100 (C-) — why pay up here when you can wait for next quarter's numbers?

LIVE TAPE