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Stock Ratings / Energy / MTDR / earnings
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Matador Resources Company (MTDR) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±5.8% Move

$55.76 -8.41% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $55.05

Matador Resources Company (MTDR) earns a Roarable Rating of B+ (Buy) with 77/100 RQD Confidence. High-quality cash engine (94.3% gross margin, 12% return on capital) with steady institutional support. The company’s underlying cash engine and institutional positioning keep the composite score in the Green Buy zone.

ROARABLE B+ • BUY Cap $7.53B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on MTDR Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is MTDR stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Matador Resources Company (NYSE: MTDR) is rated B+ (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 77/100 at a spot price of $55.76 (-8.41% 1D, market cap $7.53B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 14/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 16/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 12/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 17/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 18/20. Across 211 tracked Energy issuers, MTDR ranks #10 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does MTDR compare to RIG and VAL in the Energy sector?
▼

Within the Energy sector (Oil & Gas Production), MTDR carries a Roarable B+ (77/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 9.8x, gross margin of 94.3%, and ROIC of 12.1%. By comparison, RIG (Transocean Ltd (Switzerland)) holds a C- grade (59/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -17.3%, cap $7.75B) and VAL (Valaris Limited) posts a B grade (73/100 RQD, P/E 7.2x, ROIC 10.3%, cap $7.31B). Among the 5-stock peer group, VAL leads on earnings multiple (7.2x) while MTDR leads on capital efficiency (12.1% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MTDR?
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Per MTDR's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001520006), Matador Resources Company generated $3.66B in revenue (+5.1% YoY), $759.2M in net income, and $2.26B in free cash flow against $11.71B in total assets and $2.74B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side. Primary risk factors monitored: Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $55.05 (-1.27%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.92% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 14/20 (B-) • 61.8% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 77/100 (B+) historically ranked in the Top 10% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+7.8% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 70.3% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERBUY • B+
025507510077
2-of-3 Quant Analysts Bullish
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw B+ · Rk B
Cash (14)Whales (16)SEC (12)Macro (17)CEO (18)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+8.6% Base Target
$71 Bull$61 Base$46 Bear
📬 FREE MTDR RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for MTDR)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±5.8%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (77/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY MTDR SCORES 77/100 (B+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+18/20 pts (23% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 86% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.92% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+17/20 pts (22% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 63% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 64 (BULLISH MOMENTUM)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk12/20 pts (-8 pt drag)

Balance-sheet & 10-K footnote risk deducts 8 pts from forensic ceiling

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
69
Grade B-$55.19+4.6% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
72
Grade B$57.75+3.6% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
74
Grade B+$59.84-6.8% Next Q
Current
77
Grade B+$55.76+7.8% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: B- (69) → B+ (77)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the MTDR Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 77/100 (B+) score, MTDR faces multiple-compression risk if 9.8x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.92% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 91.8% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($56.83) or 200D SMA ($54.73) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($60.53) toward Bear Floor ($45.72).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $MTDR• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “MTDR Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 77%NO 23%Trade / Inspect Odds →
NEXT EST. WINDOW: Dec 30, 2026 (~56 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±5.8% Swing Band

±$3.23 Expected Swing
$52.53 (-5.8%)Spot $55.76$58.99 (+5.8%)
MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

MTDR Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 77/100

Trailing EPS: $6.13 • YoY Revenue Growth: 5.1%

Model Bullish Setup (77/100)Model Risk Weight (23/100)
Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).
LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

PeriodFiledRevenueNet ProfitFree Cash FlowGross Margin
FY 20252025-12-31$3.66B$759.2M$2.26B94.3%
FY 20242024-12-31$3.48B$885.3M$2.09B95.2%
FY 20232023-12-31$2.82B$846.1M$1.74B92%
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher + Options & Swing Structure Desk

Whale Flow & Momentum Playbook: Evaluating MTDR & AI Leaders Without Chasing Tops

  • ✓Institutional whale strikes & implied earnings move audit on MTDR
  • ✓How disciplined traders manage risk using pre-published trigger & invalidation levels
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on tracked leaders
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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MTDR // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -12.63%▲ ASCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-03O $59.83H $60.88L $55.76C $55.76VOL 1.42M
RES: $71.23SUP: $53.32SMA50: $56.83SMA200: $54.73
$65.17$59.82$54.48$49.13$43.78RES $71.23SUP $53.32$55.762026-05-042026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

MTDR Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 MTDR Butterfly Map → + Track MTDR →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
-1.6%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +5.1% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on MTDR today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for MTDR. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for MTDR today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (MTDR)

Energy Rank #10 of 211 ⚔️ RIG vs MTDR Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Energy Peer Comparison (MTDR vs. RIG, VAL, NE, VIST)

Industry: Oil & Gas Production (106 Tracked Issuers)

Across 211 tracked Energy securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Matador Resources Company (MTDR) ranks #10 by composite RQD confidence (77/100, grade B+) and #69 by equity capitalization ($7.53B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, VAL leads on earnings valuation at 7.2x trailing P/E, while MTDR leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 12.1% ROIC and 94.3% gross margin. MTDR currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 77/100 (B+).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
MTDR ACTIVE
Matador Resources Company
B+ 77/100 9.8x 94.3% 12.1% -8.41% $7.53B Benchmark Subject
RIG
Transocean Ltd (Switzerland)
C- 59/100 — 39.3% -17.3% -10.23% $7.75B /rig-vs-mtdr →
VAL
Valaris Limited
B 73/100 7.2x — 10.3% -10.09% $7.31B /val-vs-mtdr →
NE
Noble Corporation plc A
C+ 69/100 35.0x — 5.4% -7.22% $7.82B /ne-vs-mtdr →
VIST
Vista Energy S.A.B. de C.V. American
C 64/100 32.8x — 9.9% -5.05% $7.84B /vist-vs-mtdr →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001520006 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Matador Resources Company (MTDR) reported GAAP revenue of $3.66B (+5.1% vs. FY2024 revenue of $3.48B , and +29.8% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $759.2M, operating cash flow of $2.43B, and free cash flow of $2.26B (+8.1% YoY). On the balance sheet, MTDR closed FY2025 with $11.71B in total assets against $2.74B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 1.80, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $3.66B $759.2M $2.43B $2.26B $11.71B $2.74B
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $3.48B $885.3M $2.25B $2.09B $10.85B $2.54B
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $2.82B $846.1M $1.87B $1.74B $4.07B $952.9M

3. MTDR Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is MTDR stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Matador Resources Company (NYSE: MTDR) is rated B+ (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 77/100 at a spot price of $55.76 (-8.41% 1D, market cap $7.53B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 14/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 16/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 12/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 17/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 18/20. Across 211 tracked Energy issuers, MTDR ranks #10 in composite RQD confidence.

How does MTDR compare to RIG and VAL in the Energy sector?

Within the Energy sector (Oil & Gas Production), MTDR carries a Roarable B+ (77/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 9.8x, gross margin of 94.3%, and ROIC of 12.1%. By comparison, RIG (Transocean Ltd (Switzerland)) holds a C- grade (59/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -17.3%, cap $7.75B) and VAL (Valaris Limited) posts a B grade (73/100 RQD, P/E 7.2x, ROIC 10.3%, cap $7.31B). Among the 5-stock peer group, VAL leads on earnings multiple (7.2x) while MTDR leads on capital efficiency (12.1% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MTDR?

Per MTDR's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001520006), Matador Resources Company generated $3.66B in revenue (+5.1% YoY), $759.2M in net income, and $2.26B in free cash flow against $11.71B in total assets and $2.74B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side. Primary risk factors monitored: Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is MTDR trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

MTDR last traded at $55.76 (-8.41% on volume of 2,030,779 shares), positioning the stock -1.88% below its 50-day simple moving average ($56.83) and +1.88% above its 200-day simple moving average ($54.73). Across its 52-week range of $37.14 to $66.84, MTDR sits at the 62.7% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 64.0 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±5.8% ($52.53 to $58.99).

Direct Sub-Reports: MTDR RQD Cockpit MTDR 12M Forecast MTDR Earnings & Move MTDR Dividends & DRIP MTDR Insiders & 13F MTDR Whale Options MTDR Profit Sankey MTDR News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 77/100 (B+) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

MTDR — Matador Resources Company: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Matador Resources Company (MTDR) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 77/100, corresponding to a B+ letter grade (Roarable Buy) at a spot price of $55.76 (-8.41% 1D, market capitalization $7.53B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (14/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 12.1%, gross margin of 94.3%, operating margin of 33.5%, and free cash flow yield of 22.00%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (16/20) + Insider Conviction (18/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (17/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (12/20): Incorporates a 1.05x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 1.80, Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.42x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Matador Resources Company is a NYSE-listed issuer in the Energy sector, operating in the Oil & Gas Production industry. It is a publicly traded US company with a market capitalization of $7.4B.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Matador Resources Company (MTDR) reported $3.66B in annual revenue (up from $3.48B in FY2024, +5.1% YoY) and $759.2M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($2.82B revenue, $846.1M net income) through FY2025, MTDR scaled operating cash flow to $2.43B and free cash flow to $2.26B, backed by $11.71B in total assets against $2.74B in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (B+ • RQD 77/100): Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side. Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 14/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 16/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $37.14 – $66.84 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins. Investors must weigh 9.8x trailing P/E and 7.1x EV/EBITDA against 33.5% operating margins and a 1.05x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Upstream suppliers, downstream customers, and sector correlations are — For investors, the expansion of gas-processing capacity described in the news wire would be a second-order consideration for midstream and processing dependencies, but no source data confirms those relationships. The sector-strength reference in the news wire ties MTDR's price action to broader energy movement, and the Beta of 1.05 per market data indicates moves broadly in line with the market.

  • Key Question #1: Can MTDR sustain or expand its 33.5% operating margin and 12.1% ROIC against Oil & Gas Production peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $3.66B and free cash flow of $2.26B, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $2.74B in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is MTDR's 9.1x forward P/E multiple to Energy capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.05x)?

MTDR Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Matador Resources Company (MTDR) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to MTDR Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

MTDR Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $55.76?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON MTDR 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on MTDR:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
MA MacroHawk_NYC RQD DEBATE OPENER • Cross-Asset Macro Desk 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $72.45 (+19.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

MTDR trades at 9.8x TTM earnings with a 22% FCF yield and an RQD insider conviction pillar score of 18/20.

Don't sleep on MTDR's setup in Energy. MTDR trades at 9.8x TTM earnings with a 22% FCF yield and an RQD insider conviction pillar score of 18/20.. Beta of 1.05 means it moves fast when momentum turns, and the 5-pillar RQD gauge (77/100) backs up the fundamental quality.

CapAlloc_Nerd 🐂 BULL

@CreditSpread_Watch Fair point on 9.8x trailing P/E, but you're ignoring the forward operating leverage in Oil & Gas Production. If gross margin (94.3%) holds, EPS grows into the multiple faster than bears think.

CR CreditSpread_Watch RQD DEBATE OPENER • Balance Sheet Analyst 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $47.49 (-22.0%)
Spot @ $60.88

Reported debt rose from $952.9M in FY 2023 to $2.74B in FY 2025 while the Altman Z-Score sits at 1.8.

I respect the product at Matador Resources Company, but the stock at $60.88 is a different story. Reported debt rose from $952.9M in FY 2023 to $2.74B in FY 2025 while the Altman Z-Score sits at 1.8.. FCF yield is 22.0% and RQD sits at 77/100 (B+) — why pay up here when you can wait for next quarter's numbers?

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