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Meritage Homes Corporation (MTH) Options Positioning, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps

$69.01 +7.04% NYSE β€’ Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $69.75

Meritage Homes Corporation (MTH) carries a Roarable Rating of C- (Hold) with 59/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

ROARABLE C- β€’ HOLD / WATCH Cap $4.20B
πŸ“€ Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚑ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW β€’ $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on MTH Below β€” or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
πŸ€– Mara Quenwick β€’ AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is MTH stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
β–Ό

As of 2026-11-03, Meritage Homes Corporation (NYSE: MTH) is rated C- (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 59/100 at a spot price of $69.01 (+7.04% 1D, market cap $4.20B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 10/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 10/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 14/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 9/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 16/20. Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, MTH ranks #343 in composite RQD confidence.

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Ellis Vennor β€’ AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does MTH compare to SKY and GEO in the Consumer Discretionary sector?
β–Ό

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Homebuilding), MTH carries a Roarable C- (59/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 9.3x, gross margin of β€”, and ROIC of 8.0%. By comparison, SKY (Champion Homes Inc.) holds a A- grade (81/100 RQD, P/E 21.3x, ROIC 20.8%, cap $4.60B) and GEO (Geo Group Inc) posts a D grade (47/100 RQD, P/E 14.8x, ROIC 6.6%, cap $3.75B). Among the 5-stock peer group, MTH leads on earnings multiple (9.3x) while ECG leads on capital efficiency (30.4% ROIC).

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Gideon Ashmere β€’ AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MTH?
β–Ό

Per MTH's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000833079), Meritage Homes Corporation generated $1.50B in revenue (-42.4% YoY), $453.0M in net income, and $92.6M in free cash flow against $7.62B in total assets and $1.09B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists β€” not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
πŸ›‘οΈ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $69.76 (+1.08%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)βš™οΈ Cash Engine: 10/20 (D) β€’ 6.2% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit β†’
πŸ“Š Historical Track Record: Scores of 59/100 (C-) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.2% avg 90D alpha vs SPY β€’ 53.1% hit rate β€” wait for RQD β‰₯ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record β†’
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH β€’ C-
025507510059
Quant Analyst Panel Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) β€” not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw C- Β· Rk D+
Cash (10)Whales (10)SEC (14)Macro (9)CEO (16)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+0.4% Base Target
$90 Bull$69 Base$54 Bear
πŸ“¬ FREE MTH RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: β€” (No Active Options Snapshot on file for MTH)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: Β±7.4%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (59/100 Composite)
πŸ” WHY MTH SCORES 59/100 (C-) β€” TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
β–² #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+16/20 pts (27% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 80% Net Buy β€’ Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)

β–² #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+14/20 pts (24% of score)

Altman Z-Score 2.70 (WATCH ZONE (1.8–3.0)) β€’ Piotroski F-Score 7/9

β–Ό #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit9/20 pts (-11 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (55.4) create a -11 pt regime headwind

πŸ“ˆ PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 β†’ Q2 β†’ Q3 β†’ Current
Q1 (-3Q)
51
Grade C-$58.01+2.3% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
54
Grade C-$59.32+4.6% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
56
Grade C$62.02+11.3% Next Q
Current
59
Grade C-$69.01+0.2% Hist 90D Ξ±
Trajectory: C- (51) β†’ C- (59)Full Audit β†’
βš”οΈ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

βš”οΈ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the MTH Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk β†’

Even with a 59/100 (C-) score, MTH faces multiple-compression risk if 9.3x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares) β€” any gross margin slip below 15.0% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($63.80) or 200D SMA ($68.72) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($69.32) toward Bear Floor ($54.07).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $MTHβ€’ $2.4M Crowd Pool β€’ Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: β€œMTH Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 59%NO 41%Trade / Inspect Odds β†’
CALL VS. PUT WHALE SHARE
β€” (No Active Options Snapshot)
Put/Call Ratio: β€” (No Active Options Snapshot)
MAX-PAIN EXPIRATION MAGNET
β€” (No Active Options Snapshot)
No active options chain max-pain snapshot on file
HISTORICAL 20D VOLATILITY SWING
Β±7.4%
Derived from 20D OHLCV bars (No Active Options Snapshot)

Active Strike Call vs. Put Concentration Ladder (MTH)

β€” (No Active Options Snapshot) β€” No unusual CBOE strike concentration anomalies recorded in the current database snapshot for MTH.

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Whale Flow & Momentum Playbook: Evaluating MTH & AI Leaders Without Chasing Tops

  • βœ“Institutional whale strikes & implied earnings move audit on MTH
  • βœ“How disciplined traders manage risk using pre-published trigger & invalidation levels
  • βœ“Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on tracked leaders
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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MTH // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +9.45%β–² RESISTANCE BREAKOUT
2026-11-03O $64.49H $69.01L $64.47C $69.01VOL 1.33M
RES: $59.97SUP: $51.26SMA50: $63.80SMA200: $68.72
$87.39$79.06$70.73$62.40$54.08RES $59.97SUP $51.26$69.012026-05-042026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

MTH Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

πŸ¦‹ MTH Butterfly Map β†’ + Track MTH β†’
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
-2.6%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -42.4% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on MTH today. View full Setup Ledger β†’

πŸ¦‹ Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph β†’

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for MTH. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for MTH today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk β†’
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT β€’ SEC EDGAR XBRL Γ— RQD PEER BENCHMARK

πŸ“Š Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (MTH)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #343 of 1009 βš”οΈ SKY vs MTH Full Matrix β†’

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (MTH vs. SKY, GEO, CVCO, ECG)

Industry: Homebuilding (31 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Meritage Homes Corporation (MTH) ranks #343 by composite RQD confidence (59/100, grade C-) and #298 by equity capitalization ($4.20B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, MTH leads on earnings valuation at 9.3x trailing P/E, while ECG leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 30.4% ROIC and 12.1% gross margin. SKY currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 81/100 (A-) compared with MTH at 59/100 (C-).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
MTH ACTIVE
Meritage Homes Corporation
C- 59/100 9.3x β€” 8.0% +7.04% $4.20B Benchmark Subject
SKY
Champion Homes Inc.
A- 81/100 21.3x 26.4% 20.8% +4.72% $4.60B /sky-vs-mth β†’
GEO
Geo Group Inc
D 47/100 14.8x β€” 6.6% -2.21% $3.75B /geo-vs-mth β†’
CVCO
Cavco Industries Inc.
B+ 80/100 22.0x 23.5% 17.6% +7.09% $4.76B /cvco-vs-mth β†’
ECG
Everus Construction Group Inc.
D 46/100 27.3x 12.1% 30.4% +0.35% $5.24B /ecg-vs-mth β†’

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K β€’ FILED 2025-12-31 β€’ CIK 0000833079 β†—

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Meritage Homes Corporation (MTH) reported GAAP revenue of $1.50B (-42.4% vs. FY2024 revenue of $2.60B , and -38.7% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $453.0M, operating cash flow of $118.3M, and free cash flow of $92.6M (+136.1% YoY). On the balance sheet, MTH closed FY2025 with $7.62B in total assets against $1.09B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 2.70, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $1.50B $453.0M $118.3M $92.6M $7.62B $1.09B
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $2.60B $786.2M -$227.6M -$256.2M $7.16B $909.5M
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $2.44B $738.7M $355.6M $355.6M $2.31B $540.9M

3. MTH Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

βœ“ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is MTH stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Meritage Homes Corporation (NYSE: MTH) is rated C- (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 59/100 at a spot price of $69.01 (+7.04% 1D, market cap $4.20B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 10/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 10/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 14/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 9/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 16/20. Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, MTH ranks #343 in composite RQD confidence.

How does MTH compare to SKY and GEO in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Homebuilding), MTH carries a Roarable C- (59/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 9.3x, gross margin of β€”, and ROIC of 8.0%. By comparison, SKY (Champion Homes Inc.) holds a A- grade (81/100 RQD, P/E 21.3x, ROIC 20.8%, cap $4.60B) and GEO (Geo Group Inc) posts a D grade (47/100 RQD, P/E 14.8x, ROIC 6.6%, cap $3.75B). Among the 5-stock peer group, MTH leads on earnings multiple (9.3x) while ECG leads on capital efficiency (30.4% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MTH?

Per MTH's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000833079), Meritage Homes Corporation generated $1.50B in revenue (-42.4% YoY), $453.0M in net income, and $92.6M in free cash flow against $7.62B in total assets and $1.09B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is MTH trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

MTH last traded at $69.01 (+7.04% on volume of 1,603,925 shares), positioning the stock +8.17% above its 50-day simple moving average ($63.80) and +0.42% above its 200-day simple moving average ($68.72). Across its 52-week range of $56.66 to $85.38, MTH sits at the 43.0% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 55.4 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of Β±7.4% ($63.90 to $74.12).

Direct Sub-Reports: MTH RQD Cockpit MTH 12M Forecast MTH Earnings & Move MTH Dividends & DRIP MTH Insiders & 13F MTH Whale Options MTH Profit Sankey MTH News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF β€’ RQD 59/100 (C-) βœ“ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

MTH β€” Meritage Homes Corporation: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Meritage Homes Corporation (MTH) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 59/100, corresponding to a C- letter grade (Roarable Hold) at a spot price of $69.01 (+7.04% 1D, market capitalization $4.20B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (10/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 8.0%, gross margin of β€”, operating margin of 47.0%, and free cash flow yield of 2.20%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (10/20) + Insider Conviction (16/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (9/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (14/20): Incorporates a 1.05x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 2.70, Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.20x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Meritage Homes Corporation (MTH) is a NYSE-listed issuer in the Consumer Discretionary sector, Homebuilding industry. The profile establishes its market capitalization of $4.2B.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Meritage Homes Corporation (MTH) reported $1.50B in annual revenue (up from $2.60B in FY2024, -42.4% YoY) and $453.0M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($2.44B revenue, $738.7M net income) through FY2025, MTH scaled operating cash flow to $118.3M and free cash flow to $92.6M, backed by $7.62B in total assets against $1.09B in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • πŸ‚ Primary Bull Case (C- β€’ RQD 59/100): Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Free cash flow yield of 2.20% and institutional whale pillar of 10/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 10/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 10/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $56.66 – $85.38 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Investors must weigh 9.3x trailing P/E and 7.7x EV/EBITDA against 47.0% operating margins and a 1.05x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

β€” The only sector context provided is Consumer Discretionary / Homebuilding.

  • Key Question #1: Can MTH sustain or expand its 47.0% operating margin and 8.0% ROIC against Homebuilding peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $1.50B and free cash flow of $92.6M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $1.09B in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is MTH's 8.6x forward P/E multiple to Consumer Discretionary capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.05x)?

MTH Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Meritage Homes Corporation (MTH) β€’ Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

πŸ’¬ Jump to MTH Debate Forum (3) ↓
πŸ”₯ THE ROAR PIT β€’ LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

MTH Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board β€” What's Your Call at $69.01?

πŸ‚ 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON MTH 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on MTH:
πŸ’‘ Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
DE DeepValue_CFA RQD DEBATE OPENER β€’ Institutional Buy-Side πŸ‚ BULLISH 🎯 Target: $76.72 (+19.0%)
πŸ“Œ Pinned Debate

Low trailing valuation (P/E 9.3, EV/EBITDA 7.7) paired with a 16/20 insider-conviction pillar and a 14/20 forensic balance sheet sugges

Don't sleep on MTH's setup in Consumer Discretionary. Low trailing valuation (P/E 9.3, EV/EBITDA 7.7) paired with a 16/20 insider-conviction pillar and a 14/20 forensic balance sheet suggests room for re-rating if earnings hold.. Beta of 1.05 means it moves fast when momentum turns, and the 5-pillar RQD gauge (59/100) backs up the fundamental quality.

ArenaChamp_24 πŸ‚ BULL

@DeepValue_CFA Agree on the RQD 59/100 quality, though with 1.05 beta I'm scaling in with half-size at $64.47 and keeping dry powder in case we test $59.96.

CR CreditSpread_Watch RQD DEBATE OPENER β€’ Balance Sheet Analyst 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $53.51 (-17.0%)
Spot @ $64.47

Revenue from completed home sales fell 17% to $1.2 billion while net income declined from $786.2M to $453.0M and debt rose to $1.09B,

Fading this rally in MTH at $64.47. Revenue from completed home sales fell 17% to $1.2 billion while net income declined from $786.2M to $453.0M and debt rose to $1.09B, with the cash-engine pillar scored only 10/20.. With a beta of 1.05 and the stock sitting at $64.47 (52-wk range $56.66–$85.38), the easy multiple expansion is already priced in.

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