ROARABLE
FREE $100K
My Trading Account →
▾
Trading Profile Active
Active Trader
Verified Trader
⚡ My $100K Trading Account → ★ My Saved Watchlist →
🟢 My $100K Account → Today Screener Big Ideas Track Record 💰 $100K Arena 🎲 Predictions 🏛️ Insiders 8 Analysts
Stock Ratings / Energy / MTR / forecast
GBR (44) TPET (36) BRN (25) EONR (27) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Mesa Royalty Trust (MTR) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$2.03 +6.84% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $2.05

Mesa Royalty Trust (MTR) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 47/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $3.5M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on MTR Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is MTR stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
▼

As of 2026-11-03, Mesa Royalty Trust (NYSE: MTR) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 47/100 at a spot price of $2.03 (+6.84% 1D, market cap $3.5M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 3/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 9/20. Across 211 tracked Energy issuers, MTR ranks #148 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does MTR compare to GBR and TPET in the Energy sector?
▼

Within the Energy sector (Oil & Gas Production), MTR carries a Roarable D (47/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of —. By comparison, GBR (New Concept Energy Inc) holds a D grade (44/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -5.1%, cap $4.6M) and TPET (Trio Petroleum Corp.) posts a D- grade (36/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -34.2%, cap $9.0M). Among the 5-stock peer group, MTR leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while BRN leads on capital efficiency (0.5% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MTR?
▼

For Mesa Royalty Trust (MTR), key quantitative strengths include Established market leader in Energy with deep daily trading liquidity and sector rank #148 in Energy, while primary risk factors center on Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately and Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
🎯 MTR TRADE EXECUTION LEVELS + TODAY'S TOP 3 TRADES EXACT ENTRY • HARD STOP-LOSS (SUP) • TARGET (RES) • WHY

Where to Enter $MTR, Where to Set Your Hard Stop-Loss & Today's Top 3 High-Conviction Trades

🏆 RECENT ALERT WINNERS: $XYZ +15.6% (2d) $PLTR +13.7% (4d) $VRT +8.4% (2d)
CURRENT TICKER SETUP • $MTR R/R 2.2 : 1 • RQD 47/100 (D)
$MTR
Spot $2.03
1. GET IN (ENTRY)
$2.02–$2.04
2. HARD STOP (SUP)
$1.92 (-5.2%)
3. GET OUT (T1/T2)
$2.16 / $2.26
STOP-LOSS FLOOR (SUP $1.92): Hard stop sits 5.2% below spot to cap downside below key institutional support. If $MTR closes a daily candle below $1.92, step aside.
PROFIT TARGETS (RES $2.16 / $2.26): Scale out 50% at T1 (+6.5%) and trail stop to breakeven for T2 (+11.5%).
Want this $MTR sheet + Today's Top 3 Trades emailed free? Paper Trade $MTR →
⚡ TODAY'S TOP 3 SUGGESTED TRADES OF THE DAY (100% FREE CHEAT SHEET) Trade #1 Unlocked • Enter Email Below to Unblur #2 & #3 + Get $MTR Sheet
#1 • $MU R/R 3.2 : 1
Micron Technology, Inc.
IN
$108.50
STOP
$103.90
OUT
$117.50
#2 • 🔒 LOCKED R/R 3.4 : 1
AI Liquid-Cooling Leader
Target: +8.53% to +14.86% | Stop: -3.89%
#3 • 🔒 LOCKED R/R 3.1 : 1
Cash-Flow Buyback Machine
Target: +8.38% to +14.53% | Stop: -3.93%
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $2.05 (+1.04%)🧬 Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 12/20 (C-) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (47/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-5.9% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D
025507510047
Quant Analyst Panel Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw D- · Rk D+
Cash (12)Whales (3)SEC (13)Macro (10)CEO (9)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-4.9% Base Target
$6 Bull$2 Base$2 Bear
📬 FREE MTR RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for MTR)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (47/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY MTR SCORES 47/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (28% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 7/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+12/20 pts (26% of score)

SEC XBRL Trailing 12 Months: 0% FCF Margin ($99.1K FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-16 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
55
Grade C$2.07-5.8% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
52
Grade C-$1.95+1% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
50
Grade C-$1.97+3% Next Q
Current
47
Grade D$2.03-5.9% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C (55) → D (47)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a MTR Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While MTR currently carries a cautious 47/100 (D) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Energy with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($2.25) and Max Pain ($2.13) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $6.12.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $MTR• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “MTR Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Upcoming Quarter) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 47%NO 53%Trade / Inspect Odds →
INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your MTR Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $2.03: 4926.1 sh
$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000
12M Bear Case FloorTarget $1.51
$7,438
$-2,562 (-25.6%)
12M Consensus BaseTarget $1.93
$9,507
$-493 (-4.9%)
12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $6.12
$30,148
+$20,148 (+201.5%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (35 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100
● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 9
Wall Street FirmStance12M Target1Y AccuracyTrack Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity DeskHOLD$274%A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage LeadUNDERPERFORM$669%B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap ResearchSELL$258%C
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring MTR)

  • ✓Walkthrough of MTR's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?
Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena
MTR // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -54.99%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT
2026-11-04O $1.95H $2.03L $1.90C $2.03VOL 7.1K
RES: $2.31SUP: $1.83🎯 Entry / Stop & Top 3 Trades ↑SMA50: $2.25SMA200: $3.64
$5.21$4.30$3.39$2.48$1.57RES $2.31SUP $1.83$2.032026-05-052026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-04
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

MTR Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 MTR Butterfly Map → + Track MTR →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on MTR today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for MTR. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for MTR today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (MTR)

Energy Rank #148 of 211 ⚔️ GBR vs MTR Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Energy Peer Comparison (MTR vs. GBR, TPET, BRN, EONR)

Industry: Oil & Gas Production (106 Tracked Issuers)

Across 211 tracked Energy securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Mesa Royalty Trust (MTR) ranks #148 by composite RQD confidence (47/100, grade D) and #211 by equity capitalization ($3.5M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, MTR leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while BRN leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 0.5% ROIC and — gross margin. MTR currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 47/100 (D).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
MTR ACTIVE
Mesa Royalty Trust
D 47/100 — — — +6.84% $3.5M Benchmark Subject
GBR
New Concept Energy Inc
D 44/100 — — -5.1% -3.18% $4.6M /gbr-vs-mtr →
TPET
Trio Petroleum Corp.
D- 36/100 — 55.9% -34.2% +0.59% $9.0M /tpet-vs-mtr →
BRN
Barnwell Industries Inc.
E 25/100 — — 0.5% -1.24% $12.9M /brn-vs-mtr →
EONR
EON Resources Inc. (Class A)
E 27/100 — — -14.8% -12.40% $16.9M /eonr-vs-mtr →

2. MTR Fundamental Profitability, Capital Efficiency & Balance-Sheet Forensics

TRAILING 12M & FORWARD QUANTITATIVE SNAPSHOT

Mesa Royalty Trust (MTR) operates in Oil & Gas Production (Energy) with an equity capitalization of $3.5M, trailing P/E of N/A, forward P/E of N/A, and EV/EBITDA of N/A. Operating profitability registers a gross margin of —, operating margin of —, net profit margin of —, ROIC of —, and free cash flow yield of —, alongside an Altman Z-Score of N/A and Piotroski F-Score of N/A.

3. MTR Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is MTR stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Mesa Royalty Trust (NYSE: MTR) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 47/100 at a spot price of $2.03 (+6.84% 1D, market cap $3.5M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 3/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 9/20. Across 211 tracked Energy issuers, MTR ranks #148 in composite RQD confidence.

How does MTR compare to GBR and TPET in the Energy sector?

Within the Energy sector (Oil & Gas Production), MTR carries a Roarable D (47/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of —. By comparison, GBR (New Concept Energy Inc) holds a D grade (44/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -5.1%, cap $4.6M) and TPET (Trio Petroleum Corp.) posts a D- grade (36/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -34.2%, cap $9.0M). Among the 5-stock peer group, MTR leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while BRN leads on capital efficiency (0.5% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MTR?

For Mesa Royalty Trust (MTR), key quantitative strengths include Established market leader in Energy with deep daily trading liquidity and sector rank #148 in Energy, while primary risk factors center on Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately and Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is MTR trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

MTR last traded at $2.03 (+6.84% on volume of 13,446 shares), positioning the stock -9.78% below its 50-day simple moving average ($2.25) and -44.23% below its 200-day simple moving average ($3.64). Across its 52-week range of $1.85 to $5.83, MTR sits at the 4.5% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 34.8 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($1.78 to $2.28).

Direct Sub-Reports: MTR RQD Cockpit MTR 12M Forecast MTR Earnings & Move MTR Dividends & DRIP MTR Insiders & 13F MTR Whale Options MTR Profit Sankey MTR News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 47/100 (D) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

MTR — Mesa Royalty Trust: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2026-11-03

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Mesa Royalty Trust (MTR) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 47/100, corresponding to a D letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $2.03 (+6.84% 1D, market capitalization $3.5M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (12/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of —, gross margin of —, operating margin of —, and free cash flow yield of —.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (3/20) + Insider Conviction (9/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (10/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (13/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of N/A, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Mesa Royalty Trust (MTR) is listed on the NYSE and classified in the Energy sector, Oil & Gas Production industry. The profile describes the issuer as an Energy company with a market capitalization of $0.0B.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D • RQD 47/100): Established market leader in Energy with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of — and institutional whale pillar of 3/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 12/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 3/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $1.85 – $5.83 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation against — operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

No upstream or downstream dependencies, sector correlations, or 2nd-order bottlenecks are recorded. The graph lists the sector as Energy and the industry as Oil & Gas Production but provides no links.

  • Key Question #1: Can MTR sustain or expand its — operating margin and — ROIC against Oil & Gas Production peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Will free cash flow conversion (— FCF yield) strengthen balance-sheet liquidity (Altman Z-Score N/A) toward the $5.83 52-week high?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is MTR's equity valuation to Energy capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

MTR Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Mesa Royalty Trust (MTR) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to MTR Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

MTR Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $2.03?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON MTR 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on MTR:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
CA CashFlowKing RQD DEBATE OPENER • FCF Compounder Hunter 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $2.34 (+20.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

The Forensic Balance Sheet pillar scores 13/20 with a Piotroski F-Score of 6/9 and Altman Z-Score of 2.5, indicating a comparatively st

Long MTR at $1.95 targeting $2.34. The Forensic Balance Sheet pillar scores 13/20 with a Piotroski F-Score of 6/9 and Altman Z-Score of 2.5, indicating a comparatively steadier balance sheet than the other pillars.. Institutional whale score is 3/20 and the risk/reward vs. the $1.85 52-week low is skewed heavily in favor of bulls.

ArenaChamp_24 🐂 BULL

@FadeTheHype Fair point on current EV/EBITDA multiples, but you're ignoring the forward operating leverage in Oil & Gas Production. If gross margin (0.0%) holds, EPS grows into the multiple faster than bears think.

FA FadeTheHype RQD DEBATE OPENER • Contrarian Tape Reader 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $1.68 (-13.8%)
Spot @ $1.95

Whale 13F Flow scores just 3/20 and the trust reports 0% ROIC and 0% FCF yield alongside a news flow citing no October 2026 distributio

I respect the product at Mesa Royalty Trust, but the stock at $1.95 is a different story. Whale 13F Flow scores just 3/20 and the trust reports 0% ROIC and 0% FCF yield alongside a news flow citing no October 2026 distribution.. FCF yield is 0.0% and RQD sits at 47/100 (D) — why pay up here when you can wait for next quarter's numbers?

LIVE TAPE