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National Bank Holdings Corporation (NBHC) Dividend Safety Gauge & 10-Year DRIP Compounder

$38.06 +1.68% NYSE β€’ Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $38.10

National Bank Holdings Corporation (NBHC) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 55/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D+ β€’ SELL / AVOID Cap $1.70B
πŸ“€ Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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πŸ€– Mara Quenwick β€’ AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is NBHC stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
β–Ό

As of 2026-11-03, National Bank Holdings Corporation (NYSE: NBHC) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 55/100 at a spot price of $38.06 (+1.68% 1D, market cap $1.70B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 5/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 9/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 16/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, NBHC ranks #524 in composite RQD confidence.

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Ellis Vennor β€’ AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does NBHC compare to QCRH and HOPE in the Financials sector?
β–Ό

Within the Financials sector (Major Banks), NBHC carries a Roarable D+ (55/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 15.3x, gross margin of β€”, and ROIC of 7.9%. By comparison, QCRH (QCR Holdings Inc.) holds a C grade (64/100 RQD, P/E 13.2x, ROIC 11.4%, cap $1.69B) and HOPE (Hope Bancorp Inc.) posts a D+ grade (57/100 RQD, P/E 28.0x, ROIC 2.7%, cap $1.70B). Among the 5-stock peer group, QCRH leads on earnings multiple (13.2x) while QCRH leads on capital efficiency (11.4% ROIC).

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Gideon Ashmere β€’ AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for NBHC?
β–Ό

Per NBHC's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001475841), National Bank Holdings Corporation generated $47.1M in revenue (+2.1% YoY), $109.6M in net income, and $162.4M in free cash flow against $9.88B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
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INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
πŸ›‘οΈ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $38.10 (+0.11%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)βš™οΈ Cash Engine: 12/20 (C-) β€’ 344.5% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit β†’
πŸ“Š Historical Track Record: Scores of 55/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.5% avg 90D alpha vs SPY β€’ 51.4% hit rate β€” wait for RQD β‰₯ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record β†’
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID β€’ D+
025507510055
Quant Analyst Panel Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) β€” not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw D+ Β· Rk D+
Cash (12)Whales (5)SEC (13)Macro (9)CEO (16)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-1.3% Base Target
$50 Bull$38 Base$29 Bear
πŸ“¬ FREE NBHC RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: β€” (No Active Options Snapshot on file for NBHC)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: Β±4.1%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (55/100 Composite)
πŸ” WHY NBHC SCORES 55/100 (D+) β€” TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
β–² #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+16/20 pts (29% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 80% Net Buy β€’ Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)

β–² #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (24% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) β€’ Piotroski F-Score 4/9

β–Ό #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning5/20 pts (-15 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-15 pts vs max)

πŸ“ˆ PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 β†’ Q2 β†’ Q3 β†’ Current
Q1 (-3Q)
47
Grade D$37.13+2.4% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
50
Grade C-$38.03-1.4% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
52
Grade C-$37.48+1.5% Next Q
Current
55
Grade D+$38.06-0.5% Hist 90D Ξ±
Trajectory: D (47) β†’ D+ (55)Full Audit β†’
βš”οΈ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

βš”οΈ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the NBHC Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk β†’

Even with a 55/100 (D+) score, NBHC faces multiple-compression risk if 15.3x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares) β€” any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($39.47) or 200D SMA ($41.30) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($37.55) toward Bear Floor ($29.29).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $NBHCβ€’ $2.4M Crowd Pool β€’ Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: β€œNBHC Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 55%NO 45%Trade / Inspect Odds β†’
CASH DIVIDEND + BUYBACK YIELD
4.55% Total Yield
2.75% Cash ($1.05/yr) + 1.8% Buybacks
PAYOUT SAFETY SPEEDOMETER
88/100 β€’ FORTRESS PAYOUT
FREE CASH FLOW PAYOUT RATIO
18.4% of FCF
8 consecutive years of payout growth
INTERACTIVE DRIP & SHAREHOLDER-YIELD COMPOUNDER (8.1% EST. ANNUAL)

$10,000 Compounded Over 10 Years β†’ $21,790

Est. Year-10 Shareholder Yield: $991/yr
$10.8K
Yr 1
$11.7K
Yr 2
$12.6K
Yr 3
$13.7K
Yr 4
$14.8K
Yr 5
$16.0K
Yr 6
$17.2K
Yr 7
$18.6K
Yr 8
$20.2K
Yr 9
$21.8K
Yr 10
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP β€’ SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring NBHC)

  • βœ“Walkthrough of NBHC's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • βœ“3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
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NBHC // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -10.99%⚑ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-11-04O $37.43H $38.06L $37.43C $38.06VOL 563.8K
RES: $38.83SUP: $35.43SMA50: $39.47SMA200: $41.30
$48.01$44.98$41.94$38.90$35.87RES $38.83SUP $35.43$38.062026-05-052026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-04
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

NBHC Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

πŸ¦‹ NBHC Butterfly Map β†’ + Track NBHC β†’
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
7.6%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +2.1% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on NBHC today. View full Setup Ledger β†’

πŸ¦‹ Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph β†’

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for NBHC. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for NBHC today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk β†’
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT β€’ SEC EDGAR XBRL Γ— RQD PEER BENCHMARK

πŸ“Š Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (NBHC)

Financials Rank #524 of 1097 βš”οΈ QCRH vs NBHC Full Matrix β†’

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (NBHC vs. QCRH, HOPE, TCBK, BFC)

Industry: Major Banks (248 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1097 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, National Bank Holdings Corporation (NBHC) ranks #524 by composite RQD confidence (55/100, grade D+) and #459 by equity capitalization ($1.70B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, QCRH leads on earnings valuation at 13.2x trailing P/E, while QCRH leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 11.4% ROIC and β€” gross margin. TCBK currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 66/100 (C+) compared with NBHC at 55/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
NBHC ACTIVE
National Bank Holdings Corporation
D+ 55/100 15.3x β€” 7.9% +1.68% $1.70B Benchmark Subject
QCRH
QCR Holdings Inc.
C 64/100 13.2x β€” 11.4% +2.03% $1.69B /qcrh-vs-nbhc β†’
HOPE
Hope Bancorp Inc.
D+ 57/100 28.0x β€” 2.7% +0.83% $1.70B /hope-vs-nbhc β†’
TCBK
TriCo Bancshares
C+ 66/100 14.1x β€” 9.2% +2.08% $1.71B /tcbk-vs-nbhc β†’
BFC
Bank First Corporation
D+ 58/100 23.4x β€” 11.1% +1.29% $1.67B /bfc-vs-nbhc β†’

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K β€’ FILED 2025-12-31 β€’ CIK 0001475841 β†—

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), National Bank Holdings Corporation (NBHC) reported GAAP revenue of $47.1M (+2.1% vs. FY2024 revenue of $46.2M , and +0.5% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $109.6M, operating cash flow of $162.4M, and free cash flow of $162.4M (+4.6% YoY). On the balance sheet, NBHC closed FY2025 with $9.88B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $47.1M $109.6M $162.4M $162.4M $9.88B β€”
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $46.2M $118.8M $155.3M $155.3M $9.81B β€”
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $46.9M $142.0M $166.9M $166.9M β€” β€”

3. NBHC Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

βœ“ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is NBHC stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, National Bank Holdings Corporation (NYSE: NBHC) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 55/100 at a spot price of $38.06 (+1.68% 1D, market cap $1.70B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 5/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 9/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 16/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, NBHC ranks #524 in composite RQD confidence.

How does NBHC compare to QCRH and HOPE in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Major Banks), NBHC carries a Roarable D+ (55/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 15.3x, gross margin of β€”, and ROIC of 7.9%. By comparison, QCRH (QCR Holdings Inc.) holds a C grade (64/100 RQD, P/E 13.2x, ROIC 11.4%, cap $1.69B) and HOPE (Hope Bancorp Inc.) posts a D+ grade (57/100 RQD, P/E 28.0x, ROIC 2.7%, cap $1.70B). Among the 5-stock peer group, QCRH leads on earnings multiple (13.2x) while QCRH leads on capital efficiency (11.4% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for NBHC?

Per NBHC's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001475841), National Bank Holdings Corporation generated $47.1M in revenue (+2.1% YoY), $109.6M in net income, and $162.4M in free cash flow against $9.88B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is NBHC trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

NBHC last traded at $38.06 (+1.68% on volume of 563,816 shares), positioning the stock -3.57% below its 50-day simple moving average ($39.47) and -7.85% below its 200-day simple moving average ($41.30). Across its 52-week range of $35.47 to $47.28, NBHC sits at the 21.9% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 46.0 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of Β±4.1% ($36.50 to $39.62).

Direct Sub-Reports: NBHC RQD Cockpit NBHC 12M Forecast NBHC Earnings & Move NBHC Dividends & DRIP NBHC Insiders & 13F NBHC Whale Options NBHC Profit Sankey NBHC News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF β€’ RQD 55/100 (D+) βœ“ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

NBHC β€” National Bank Holdings Corporation: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

National Bank Holdings Corporation (NBHC) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 55/100, corresponding to a D+ letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $38.06 (+1.68% 1D, market capitalization $1.70B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (12/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 7.9%, gross margin of β€”, operating margin of β€”, and free cash flow yield of 9.71%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (5/20) + Insider Conviction (16/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (9/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (13/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 4/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Is a NYSE-listed issuer in the Financials sector, Major Banks industry. Reported revenue appears in the $46–47M range across the three listed periods.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), National Bank Holdings Corporation (NBHC) reported $47.1M in annual revenue (up from $46.2M in FY2024, +2.1% YoY) and $109.6M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($46.9M revenue, $142.0M net income) through FY2025, NBHC scaled operating cash flow to $162.4M and free cash flow to $162.4M, backed by $9.88B in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • πŸ‚ Primary Bull Case (D+ β€’ RQD 55/100): Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Free cash flow yield of 9.71% and institutional whale pillar of 5/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 12/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 5/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $35.47 – $47.28 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Investors must weigh 15.3x trailing P/E against β€” operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Operating in Major Banks (Financials), NBHC carries a macro regime beta of 1.00 and gross margin of β€”.

  • Key Question #1: Can NBHC sustain or expand its β€” operating margin and 7.9% ROIC against Major Banks peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $47.1M and free cash flow of $162.4M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is NBHC's 14.2x forward P/E multiple to Financials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

NBHC Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for National Bank Holdings Corporation (NBHC) β€’ Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

πŸ’¬ Jump to NBHC Debate Forum (3) ↓
πŸ”₯ THE ROAR PIT β€’ LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

NBHC Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board β€” What's Your Call at $38.06?

πŸ‚ 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON NBHC 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on NBHC:
πŸ’‘ Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
AL AlphaFlow_Cap RQD DEBATE OPENER β€’ Verified $100K Arena Trader πŸ‚ BULLISH 🎯 Target: $43.79 (+17.0%)
πŸ“Œ Pinned Debate

Free cash flow yield of 9.71% and the strongest RQD pillar at 16 of 20 from insider conviction flow point to cash generation and inside

The street is overcomplicating National Bank Holdings Corporation (NBHC). Free cash flow yield of 9.71% and the strongest RQD pillar at 16 of 20 from insider conviction flow point to cash generation and insider support.. With an RQD score of 55/100 (D+) and Forensic Balance Sheet at 13/20, any positive earnings surprise or guidance raise forces underweight funds to chase above $40.42.

VolSurface_Trader πŸ‚ BULL

Both sides have a point here β€” NBHC's 13/20 balance sheet score keeps downside contained, so the real swing factor next earnings call is backlog and FCF conversion.

SH ShortSeller_Dan RQD DEBATE OPENER β€’ Forensic Short Bias 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $30.32 (-19.0%)
Spot @ $37.43

The RQD score of 55 with the whale 13F flow pillar at 4 of 20 and a Trim verdict signal weak institutional accumulation and middling fu

I respect the product at National Bank Holdings Corporation, but the stock at $37.43 is a different story. The RQD score of 55 with the whale 13F flow pillar at 4 of 20 and a Trim verdict signal weak institutional accumulation and middling fundamentals.. FCF yield is 9.71% and RQD sits at 55/100 (D+) β€” why pay up here when you can wait for next quarter's numbers?

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