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Why NBR Stock dropped -4.09% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

$81.22 -4.09% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $80.47

Nabors Industries Ltd. (NBR) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 44/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $1.42B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is NBR stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
▼

As of 2026-11-03, Nabors Industries Ltd. (NYSE: NBR) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 44/100 at a spot price of $81.22 (-4.09% 1D, market cap $1.42B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 7/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 13/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 8/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 5/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 11/20. Across 211 tracked Energy issuers, NBR ranks #162 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does NBR compare to PBT and KOS in the Energy sector?
▼

Within the Energy sector (Oil & Gas Production), NBR carries a Roarable D (44/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 5.2x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 21.1%. By comparison, PBT (Permian Basin Royalty Trust) holds a D+ grade (57/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $1.42B) and KOS (Kosmos Energy Ltd.) posts a D+ grade (52/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $1.47B). Among the 5-stock peer group, NBR leads on earnings multiple (5.2x) while NBR leads on capital efficiency (21.1% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for NBR?
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Per NBR's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001163739), Nabors Industries Ltd. generated $3.18B in revenue (+8.7% YoY), $286.6M in net income, and -$22.7M in free cash flow against $4.79B in total assets and $2.12B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Energy with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $80.46 (-0.93%)🧬 Disciplined Float (+0.24% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 7/20 (D-) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (44/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-6.5% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D
025507510044
3-of-3 Quant Analysts Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw D+ · Rk E
Cash (7)Whales (13)SEC (8)Macro (5)CEO (11)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-6.3% Base Target
$119 Bull$76 Base$59 Bear
📬 FREE NBR RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for NBR)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±8.8%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (44/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY NBR SCORES 44/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+13/20 pts (30% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±8.8% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+11/20 pts (25% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 55% Net Buy • Disciplined Float (+0.24% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit5/20 pts (-15 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (51) create a -15 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
36
Grade E$78.20+3.6% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
39
Grade E$81.02+10.9% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
41
Grade D$89.87-9.6% Next Q
Current
44
Grade D$81.22-6.5% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: E (36) → D (44)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a NBR Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While NBR currently carries a cautious 44/100 (D) rating due to Macro Regime Fit (5/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Energy with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($84.80) and Max Pain ($85.28) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $118.55.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (+0.24% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $NBR• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “NBR Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →

Why NBR Stock dropped -4.09% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

Nabors Industries Ltd. (NBR) dropped -4.09% to $81.22, trading at 54% of its 52-week range ($44.04 – $112.9). Stretched risk/reward at 5x P/E (21% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.

  • ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 54% of its 52-week range ($44.04 – $112.9) with RSI-14 at 51 (NEUTRAL RANGE).
  • ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±8.8% around $81.22 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
  • ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable D (Sell) backed by 52% gross margin and $0 annual free cash flow.
Live NBR Headlines & Catalysts
MARKET WIREYahoo • 2d ago
What Is Behind Nabors Industries (NBR) Shares Moving Today?

Nabors Industries earnings jolt puts recent share gains under the microscope Nabors Industries (NBR) just posted third quarter 2026 results that combined higher revenue with a swing from profit to loss, giving investors

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring NBR)

  • ✓Walkthrough of NBR's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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NBR // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -22.85%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-04O $90.78H $90.78L $81.22C $81.22VOL 330.2K
RES: $90.91SUP: $74.57SMA50: $84.80SMA200: $84.99
$116.8$100.7$84.68$68.64$52.59RES $90.91SUP $74.57$81.222026-05-052026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-04
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

NBR Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
-13.3%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +8.7% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on NBR today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for NBR. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for NBR today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (NBR)

Energy Rank #162 of 211 ⚔️ PBT vs NBR Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Energy Peer Comparison (NBR vs. PBT, KOS, GFR, PDS)

Industry: Oil & Gas Production (106 Tracked Issuers)

Across 211 tracked Energy securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Nabors Industries Ltd. (NBR) ranks #162 by composite RQD confidence (44/100, grade D) and #129 by equity capitalization ($1.42B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, NBR leads on earnings valuation at 5.2x trailing P/E, while NBR leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 21.1% ROIC and — gross margin. PDS currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 63/100 (C) compared with NBR at 44/100 (D).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
NBR ACTIVE
Nabors Industries Ltd.
D 44/100 5.2x — 21.1% -4.09% $1.42B Benchmark Subject
PBT
Permian Basin Royalty Trust
D+ 57/100 — — — -8.10% $1.42B /pbt-vs-nbr →
KOS
Kosmos Energy Ltd.
D+ 52/100 — — -35.0% +4.86% $1.47B /kos-vs-nbr →
GFR
Greenfire Resources Ltd.
C- 59/100 — — — +0.33% $1.48B /gfr-vs-nbr →
PDS
Precision Drilling Corporation
C 63/100 — — — -1.25% $1.22B /pds-vs-nbr →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001163739 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Nabors Industries Ltd. (NBR) reported GAAP revenue of $3.18B (+8.7% vs. FY2024 revenue of $2.93B , and +5.9% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $286.6M, operating cash flow of $693.3M, and free cash flow of -$22.7M (-267.9% YoY). On the balance sheet, NBR closed FY2025 with $4.79B in total assets against $2.12B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 0.86, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $3.18B $286.6M $693.3M -$22.7M $4.79B $2.12B
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $2.93B -$176.1M $581.4M $13.5M $4.50B $2.51B
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $3.01B -$11.8M $637.9M $637.9M — —

3. NBR Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is NBR stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Nabors Industries Ltd. (NYSE: NBR) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 44/100 at a spot price of $81.22 (-4.09% 1D, market cap $1.42B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 7/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 13/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 8/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 5/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 11/20. Across 211 tracked Energy issuers, NBR ranks #162 in composite RQD confidence.

How does NBR compare to PBT and KOS in the Energy sector?

Within the Energy sector (Oil & Gas Production), NBR carries a Roarable D (44/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 5.2x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 21.1%. By comparison, PBT (Permian Basin Royalty Trust) holds a D+ grade (57/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $1.42B) and KOS (Kosmos Energy Ltd.) posts a D+ grade (52/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $1.47B). Among the 5-stock peer group, NBR leads on earnings multiple (5.2x) while NBR leads on capital efficiency (21.1% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for NBR?

Per NBR's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001163739), Nabors Industries Ltd. generated $3.18B in revenue (+8.7% YoY), $286.6M in net income, and -$22.7M in free cash flow against $4.79B in total assets and $2.12B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Energy with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is NBR trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

NBR last traded at $81.22 (-4.09% on volume of 205,059 shares), positioning the stock -4.22% below its 50-day simple moving average ($84.80) and -4.44% below its 200-day simple moving average ($84.99). Across its 52-week range of $44.04 to $112.90, NBR sits at the 54.0% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 51.0 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±8.8% ($74.07 to $88.37).

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 44/100 (D) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

NBR — Nabors Industries Ltd.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Nabors Industries Ltd. (NBR) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 44/100, corresponding to a D letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $81.22 (-4.09% 1D, market capitalization $1.42B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (7/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 21.1%, gross margin of —, operating margin of 14.8%, and free cash flow yield of -1.53%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (13/20) + Insider Conviction (11/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (5/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (8/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 0.86, Piotroski F-Score of 6/9, and Debt/Equity of 3.58x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Nabors Industries Ltd. (NBR) is a NYSE-listed issuer in the Energy sector, classified within Oil & Gas Production. The profile identifies its market capitalization as $1.5B. — for further business detail.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Nabors Industries Ltd. (NBR) reported $3.18B in annual revenue (up from $2.93B in FY2024, +8.7% YoY) and $286.6M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($3.01B revenue, -$11.8M net income) through FY2025, NBR scaled operating cash flow to $693.3M and free cash flow to -$22.7M, backed by $4.79B in total assets against $2.12B in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D • RQD 44/100): Established market leader in Energy with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of -1.53% and institutional whale pillar of 13/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 7/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 13/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $44.04 – $112.90 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Investors must weigh 5.2x trailing P/E against 14.8% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Upstream and downstream dependencies, sector correlations, and 2nd-order bottlenecks cannot be identified from the provided sources. Sector context is limited to the Energy / Oil & Gas Production classification and beta of 1.0.

  • Key Question #1: Can NBR sustain or expand its 14.8% operating margin and 21.1% ROIC against Oil & Gas Production peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $3.18B and free cash flow of -$22.7M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $2.12B in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is NBR's 4.8x forward P/E multiple to Energy capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

NBR Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Nabors Industries Ltd. (NBR) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to NBR Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

NBR Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $81.22?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON NBR 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on NBR:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
MI MidwestValue RQD DEBATE OPENER • Fundamental Long-Only 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $117.11 (+29.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Strong 21.1% ROIC and 5.2x trailing P/E, with FY 2025 net income rising to $286.6M from a prior loss.

The street is overcomplicating Nabors Industries Ltd. (NBR). Strong 21.1% ROIC and 5.2x trailing P/E, with FY 2025 net income rising to $286.6M from a prior loss.. With an RQD score of 44/100 (D) and Forensic Balance Sheet at 8/20, any positive earnings surprise or guidance raise forces underweight funds to chase above $98.04.

CapAlloc_Nerd 🐂 BULL

@FadeTheHype Fair point on 5.2x trailing P/E, but you're ignoring the forward operating leverage in Oil & Gas Production. If gross margin (0.0%) holds, EPS grows into the multiple faster than bears think.

FA FadeTheHype RQD DEBATE OPENER • Contrarian Tape Reader 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $69.90 (-23.0%)
Spot @ $90.78

Distress-range 0.86 Altman Z-Score, 3.58 Debt/Equity, and negative -1.53% FCF yield against a D-grade RQD verdict.

I respect the product at Nabors Industries Ltd., but the stock at $90.78 is a different story. Distress-range 0.86 Altman Z-Score, 3.58 Debt/Equity, and negative -1.53% FCF yield against a D-grade RQD verdict.. FCF yield is -1.53% and RQD sits at 44/100 (D) — why pay up here when you can wait for next quarter's numbers?

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