What is NOAH's 12-month stock price target?

Noah Holdings Limited (NOAH) carries a 12-month consensus base price target of $6.87 (-0.9% from $6.93), with a bull-case target of $13.07 and a bear-case floor of $5.36.

Stock Ratings / Financials / NOAH / forecast

HQL (51) FTHY (46) ETO (43) TYG (47) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Noah Holdings Limited (NOAH) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

Q: Is NOAH stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now?

Roarable's 5-Pillar RQD Quant Engine rates NOAH D+ (Sell — SELL) with an RQD Confidence score of 56/100.

$6.93 +2.97% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $6.95

Noah Holdings Limited (NOAH) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 56/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID Cap $451.3M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on NOAH Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is NOAH stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-03, Noah Holdings Limited (NYSE: NOAH) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 56/100 at a spot price of $6.93 (+2.97% 1D, market cap $451.3M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 16/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 3/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 9/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 13/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, NOAH ranks #511 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does NOAH compare to HQL and FTHY in the Financials sector?

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Within the Financials sector (Investment Managers), NOAH carries a Roarable D+ (56/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 5.8x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 11.2%. By comparison, HQL (abrdn Life Sciences Investors) holds a D grade (51/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $473.5M) and FTHY (First Trust High Yield Opportunities 2027 Term Fund) posts a D grade (46/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $479.2M). Among the 5-stock peer group, NOAH leads on earnings multiple (5.8x) while NOAH leads on capital efficiency (11.2% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for NOAH?

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Per NOAH's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001499543), Noah Holdings Limited generated $373.3M in revenue (+4.8% YoY), $79.9M in net income, and $120.5M in free cash flow against $1.68B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $6.95 (+0.34%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.52% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 16/20 (B+) • 32.3% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 56/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 51.8% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk C-

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-0.9% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for NOAH)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±5%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (56/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY NOAH SCORES 56/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+16/20 pts (29% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 32.3% FCF Margin ($120.5M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+15/20 pts (27% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 8/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-16 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C+$7.48-5.2% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C$7.09-3.1% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C$6.87+0.9% Next Q

Current

Grade D+$6.93-0.4% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C+ (64) → D+ (56)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the NOAH Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 56/100 (D+) score, NOAH faces multiple-compression risk if 5.8x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-1.52% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($7.75) or 200D SMA ($9.71) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($6.87) toward Bear Floor ($5.36).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $NOAH• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “NOAH Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 56%NO 44%Trade / Inspect Odds →

INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your NOAH Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $6.93: 1443.0 sh

$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000

12M Bear Case FloorTarget $5.36

$7,734

$-2,266 (-22.7%)

12M Consensus BaseTarget $6.87

$9,913

$-87 (-0.9%)

12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $13.07

$18,860

+$8,860 (+88.6%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (32 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100

● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 6

Wall Street Firm	Stance	12M Target	1Y Accuracy	Track Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity Desk	HOLD	$7	74%	A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage Lead	UNDERPERFORM	$12	69%	B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap Research	SELL	$6	58%	C

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring NOAH)

✓Walkthrough of NOAH's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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NOAH // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -35.17%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT

2026-11-03O $6.89H $6.93L $6.73C $6.93VOL 281.2K

RES: $7.34SUP: $6.52SMA50: $7.75SMA200: $9.71

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

NOAH Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 NOAH Butterfly Map → + Track NOAH →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle

-11.4%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +4.8% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on NOAH today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for NOAH. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for NOAH today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (NOAH)

Financials Rank #511 of 1097 ⚔️ HQL vs NOAH Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (NOAH vs. HQL, FTHY, ETO, TYG)

Industry: Investment Managers (79 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1097 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Noah Holdings Limited (NOAH) ranks #511 by composite RQD confidence (56/100, grade D+) and #726 by equity capitalization ($451.3M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, NOAH leads on earnings valuation at 5.8x trailing P/E, while NOAH leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 11.2% ROIC and — gross margin. NOAH currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 56/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
NOAH ACTIVE Noah Holdings Limited	D+	56/100	5.8x	—	11.2%	+2.97%	$451.3M	Benchmark Subject
HQL abrdn Life Sciences Investors	D	51/100	—	—	—	-2.49%	$473.5M	/hql-vs-noah →
FTHY First Trust High Yield Opportunities 2027 Term Fund	D	46/100	—	—	—	-0.69%	$479.2M	/fthy-vs-noah →
ETO Eaton Vance Tax-Advantage Global Dividend Opp	D-	43/100	—	—	—	+0.47%	$484.8M	/eto-vs-noah →
TYG Tortoise Energy Infrastructure Corporation	D	47/100	—	—	—	-3.35%	$488.3M	/tyg-vs-noah →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001499543 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Noah Holdings Limited (NOAH) reported GAAP revenue of $373.3M (+4.8% vs. FY2024 revenue of $356.3M , and -19.6% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $79.9M, operating cash flow of $139.7M, and free cash flow of $120.5M (+188.2% YoY). On the balance sheet, NOAH closed FY2025 with $1.68B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 8/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$373.3M	$79.9M	$139.7M	$120.5M	$1.68B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$356.3M	$65.1M	$53.1M	$41.8M	$1.61B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$464.0M	$142.2M	$185.7M	$185.7M	—	—

3. NOAH Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is NOAH stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does NOAH compare to HQL and FTHY in the Financials sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for NOAH?

Where is NOAH trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

NOAH last traded at $6.93 (+2.97% on volume of 255,275 shares), positioning the stock -10.58% below its 50-day simple moving average ($7.75) and -28.63% below its 200-day simple moving average ($9.71). Across its 52-week range of $6.57 to $12.45, NOAH sits at the 6.1% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 27.8 (OVERSOLD (<32)) and an implied next-earnings move of ±5.0% ($6.58 to $7.28).

Direct Sub-Reports: NOAH RQD Cockpit NOAH 12M Forecast NOAH Earnings & Move NOAH Dividends & DRIP NOAH Insiders & 13F NOAH Whale Options NOAH Profit Sankey NOAH News & Why

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 56/100 (D+) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

NOAH — Noah Holdings Limited: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit

Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Noah Holdings Limited (NOAH) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 56/100, corresponding to a D+ letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $6.93 (+2.97% 1D, market capitalization $451.3M).

Fundamental Cash Engine (16/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 11.2%, gross margin of —, operating margin of 29.8%, and free cash flow yield of —.
Whale 13F & Options Flow (3/20) + Insider Conviction (13/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
Macro Regime Fit (9/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (15/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Noah Holdings Limited (NOAH) is a NYSE-listed issuer classified..5B.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Noah Holdings Limited (NOAH) reported $373.3M in annual revenue (up from $356.3M in FY2024, +4.8% YoY) and $79.9M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($464.0M revenue, $142.2M net income) through FY2025, NOAH scaled operating cash flow to $139.7M and free cash flow to $120.5M, backed by $1.68B in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

🐂 Primary Bull Case (D+ • RQD 56/100): Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 16/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 3/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $6.57 – $12.45 52-week range.
🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Investors must weigh 5.8x trailing P/E against 29.8% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Operating in Investment Managers (Financials), NOAH carries a macro regime beta of 1.00 and gross margin of —.

Key Question #1: Can NOAH sustain or expand its 29.8% operating margin and 11.2% ROIC against Investment Managers peers over the next 4 quarters?
Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $373.3M and free cash flow of $120.5M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
Key Question #3: How sensitive is NOAH's 5.4x forward P/E multiple to Financials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

NOAH Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Noah Holdings Limited (NOAH) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to NOAH Debate Forum (3) ↓

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo • 6d ago

Robinhood Stock And the Rate Trade Behind Short Term Bond ETF Demand

Cash now pays attention. With the Fed keeping rates at 3.75%–4% for October and investors eyeing a possible December hike, short-term bond and cash-equivalent ETFs have moved from afterthought to front row. This is where

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo • 7d ago

Bitget Wallet adds USD, EUR accounts that convert deposits into stablecoins

Investing.com -- Bitget Wallet will give users personal U.S. dollar and euro account numbers inside its self-custodial crypto wallet, with incoming funds automatically converted into stablecoins, Investing.com has learne

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🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo • 18d ago

What Bears Saw Before Noah Slid

Noah Holdings just used its H2 2026 CIO report to argue that the biggest AI opportunities may sit in power, grids, storage, and data centers rather than headline AI stocks. Investors who held Noah over the past year are

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST Yahoo • 21d ago

Noah (NOAH) Upgraded to Buy: What Does It Mean for the Stock?

Noah (NOAH) might move higher on growing optimism about its earnings prospects, which is reflected by its upgrade to a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy).

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST Yahoo • 22d ago

Noah (NOAH) Loses 7% in 4 Weeks, Here's Why a Trend Reversal May be Around the Corner

Noah (NOAH) is technically in oversold territory now, so the heavy selling pressure might have exhausted. This along with strong agreement among Wall Street analysts in raising earnings estimates could lead to a trend re

Read Full Source ↗

🔴 RISK WATCH Yahoo Finance • 26d ago

Asian Equities Traded in the US as American Depositary Receipts Tumble in Wednesday Trading

Asian equities traded in the US as American depositary receipts were falling sharply Wednesday morni

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🔴 RISK WATCH Yahoo Finance • 32d ago

Noah Holdings (NOAH) Stock Fair Value Moves Lower After JPMorgan Target Cut

The latest update on Noah Holdings centers on a reset in expectations, with the modeled fair value moving from US$12.31 to US$10.64 and JPMorgan trimming its price target from US$10.50 to US$9.70. That US$9.70 target, pa

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🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 42d ago

Noah Holdings Hosts 2026 Global Investor Summit "The Year of Realization: A New Chapter in Global Allocation"

Noah Holdings Limited ("Noah" or the "Company") (NYSE: NOAH; HKEX: 6686), a wealth management institution serving global Chinese families, together with its global asset allocation platform Olive Asset Management ("Olive

Read Full Source ↗

🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

NOAH Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $6.93?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON NOAH 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION

SI SiliconVal_Bull RQD DEBATE OPENER • Growth & Tech Investor 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $7.74 (+15.0%)

📌 Pinned Debate

Operating margin of 29.8% and a forensic balance sheet score of 15 / 20 (Piotroski F 8/9) show profitability and financial soundness de

Operating margin of 29.8% and a forensic balance sheet score of 15 / 20 (Piotroski F 8/9) show profitability and financial soundness despite a 5.8 P/E.. When you look under the hood at NOAH, Fundamental Cash Engine is 16/20 with 0.0% gross margins and 11.2% ROIC. Bears are staring in the rearview mirror while institutional 13F flow (3/20) has been quietly accumulating below $12.45. My 12M target is $7.74.

EarningsSniper 🐂 BULL

@SkepticalCFA Shorting a 3/20 institutional whale-flow stock at $6.73 is dangerous when funds are rotating into Financials.

SK SkepticalCFA RQD DEBATE OPENER • Fundamental Contrarian 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $5.11 (-24.1%)

Spot @ $6.73

Whale 13F flow scores just 3 / 20 and macro regime fit 9 / 20, signaling weak institutional demand and poor sector alignment.

Here is the bear case nobody on the bull side wants to address on NOAH: Whale 13F flow scores just 3 / 20 and macro regime fit 9 / 20, signaling weak institutional demand and poor sector alignment.. At 5.8x trailing P/E, even a small guidance miss in Investment Managers triggers a 12-15% air pocket.