Yahoo Finance report covering Northern Oil and Gas Inc. (NOG) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Why NOG Stock dropped -3.18% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
Northern Oil and Gas Inc. (NOG) carries a Roarable Rating of C (Hold) with 62/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.
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Is NOG stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Northern Oil and Gas Inc. (NYSE: NOG) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 62/100 at a spot price of $24.98 (-3.18% 1D, market cap $2.75B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 16/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 12/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 13/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 9/20. Across 211 tracked Energy issuers, NOG ranks #83 in composite RQD confidence.
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How does NOG compare to TALO and GPOR in the Energy sector?
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Within the Energy sector (Oil & Gas Production), NOG carries a Roarable C (62/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 76.4x, gross margin of 80.9%, and ROIC of 9.2%. By comparison, TALO (Talos Energy Inc.) holds a C- grade (60/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -14.6%, cap $2.75B) and GPOR (Gulfport Energy Corporation) posts a C+ grade (66/100 RQD, P/E 6.8x, ROIC 18.1%, cap $2.96B). Among the 5-stock peer group, GPOR leads on earnings multiple (6.8x) while GPOR leads on capital efficiency (18.1% ROIC).
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief)
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for NOG?
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Per NOG's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001104485), Northern Oil and Gas Inc. generated $2.48B in revenue (+11.2% YoY), $38.8M in net income, and $1.51B in free cash flow against $5.41B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±7.4% realized swing band)
FRED Regime × Technicals: 56% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 44.5 (NEUTRAL RANGE)
Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 11 pts from alignment
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the NOG Bull Thesis Could Fail
Even with a 62/100 (C) score, NOG faces multiple-compression risk if 76.4x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.
Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.
Priced at 76x earnings—high expectations leave less room for a lukewarm quarter.
Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($25.78) or 200D SMA ($24.63) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($25.43) toward Bear Floor ($19.84).
Why NOG Stock dropped -3.18% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
Northern Oil and Gas Inc. (NOG) dropped -3.18% to $24.98, trading at 56% of its 52-week range ($17.18 – $31.17). Solid 80.9% gross margin (9% return on capital), mixed timing at 76x P/E—hold if owned, no rush to chase.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 56% of its 52-week range ($17.18 – $31.17) with RSI-14 at 44.5 (NEUTRAL RANGE).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±7.4% around $24.98 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable C (Hold) backed by 80.9% gross margin and $1.5B annual free cash flow.
ChartMill report covering Northern Oil and Gas Inc. (NOG) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Yahoo Finance report covering Northern Oil and Gas Inc. (NOG) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
TradingView report covering Northern Oil and Gas Inc. (NOG) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Simply Wall St report covering Northern Oil and Gas Inc. (NOG) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Investing.com report covering Northern Oil and Gas Inc. (NOG) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
The Globe and Mail report covering Northern Oil and Gas Inc. (NOG) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
kalkine.ca report covering Northern Oil and Gas Inc. (NOG) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Oil markets just received a jolt of fresh information, with BP reporting a near-quadrupling of profit to an underlying replacement cost profit of $8.5b and refinery margins boosted by Iran war related disruptions to Midd
Northern Oil and Gas (NOG) doesn't possess the right combination of the two key ingredients for a likely earnings beat in its upcoming report. Get prepared with the key expectations.
Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (NOG Tape Review)
- ✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
- ✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
- ✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts
NOG Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
vs. +11.2% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on NOG today. View full Setup Ledger →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for NOG. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (NOG)
1. Head-to-Head Energy Peer Comparison (NOG vs. TALO, GPOR, SDRL, EROK)
Industry: Oil & Gas Production (106 Tracked Issuers)Across 211 tracked Energy securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Northern Oil and Gas Inc. (NOG) ranks #83 by composite RQD confidence (62/100, grade C) and #108 by equity capitalization ($2.75B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, GPOR leads on earnings valuation at 6.8x trailing P/E, while GPOR leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 18.1% ROIC and 74.8% gross margin. GPOR currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 66/100 (C+) compared with NOG at 62/100 (C).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NOG
ACTIVE
Northern Oil and Gas Inc. | C | 62/100 | 76.4x | 80.9% | 9.2% | -3.18% | $2.75B | Benchmark Subject |
| TALO Talos Energy Inc. | C- | 60/100 | — | — | -14.6% | -2.19% | $2.75B | /talo-vs-nog → |
| GPOR Gulfport Energy Corporation | C+ | 66/100 | 6.8x | 74.8% | 18.1% | -0.61% | $2.96B | /gpor-vs-nog → |
| SDRL Seadrill Limited | D | 48/100 | — | — | 1.2% | -2.95% | $2.99B | /sdrl-vs-nog → |
| EROK EagleRock Land LLC representing limited liability company interests (Class A) | D | 47/100 | — | — | — | +1.11% | $2.49B | /erok-vs-nog → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001104485 ↗In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Northern Oil and Gas Inc. (NOG) reported GAAP revenue of $2.48B (+11.2% vs. FY2024 revenue of $2.23B , and +14.3% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $38.8M, operating cash flow of $1.51B, and free cash flow of $1.51B (+6.9% YoY). On the balance sheet, NOG closed FY2025 with $5.41B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 1.28, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $2.48B | $38.8M | $1.51B | $1.51B | $5.41B | — |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-31 | $2.23B | $520.3M | $1.41B | $1.41B | $5.60B | — |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-12-31 | $2.17B | $923.0M | $1.18B | $1.18B | — | — |
3. NOG Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs NOG stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-03, Northern Oil and Gas Inc. (NYSE: NOG) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 62/100 at a spot price of $24.98 (-3.18% 1D, market cap $2.75B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 16/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 12/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 13/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 9/20. Across 211 tracked Energy issuers, NOG ranks #83 in composite RQD confidence.
How does NOG compare to TALO and GPOR in the Energy sector?
Within the Energy sector (Oil & Gas Production), NOG carries a Roarable C (62/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 76.4x, gross margin of 80.9%, and ROIC of 9.2%. By comparison, TALO (Talos Energy Inc.) holds a C- grade (60/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -14.6%, cap $2.75B) and GPOR (Gulfport Energy Corporation) posts a C+ grade (66/100 RQD, P/E 6.8x, ROIC 18.1%, cap $2.96B). Among the 5-stock peer group, GPOR leads on earnings multiple (6.8x) while GPOR leads on capital efficiency (18.1% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for NOG?
Per NOG's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001104485), Northern Oil and Gas Inc. generated $2.48B in revenue (+11.2% YoY), $38.8M in net income, and $1.51B in free cash flow against $5.41B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is NOG trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
NOG last traded at $24.98 (-3.18% on volume of 2,053,727 shares), positioning the stock -3.10% below its 50-day simple moving average ($25.78) and +1.42% above its 200-day simple moving average ($24.63). Across its 52-week range of $17.18 to $31.17, NOG sits at the 55.8% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 44.5 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±7.4% ($23.13 to $26.83).
NOG — Northern Oil and Gas Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor
1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor
Northern Oil and Gas Inc. (NOG) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 62/100, corresponding to a C letter grade (Roarable Hold) at a spot price of $24.98 (-3.18% 1D, market capitalization $2.75B).
- Fundamental Cash Engine (12/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 9.2%, gross margin of 80.9%, operating margin of 9.9%, and free cash flow yield of —.
- Whale 13F & Options Flow (16/20) + Insider Conviction (9/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
- Macro Regime Fit (13/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (12/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 1.28, Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.
2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory
Northern Oil and Gas Inc. (NOG) is a NYSE-listed operating company in the Oil & Gas Production industry (Energy sector) with an equity market capitalization of $3.02B. The business operates with a gross margin of 80.9%, an operating margin of 9.9%, and a return on invested capital (ROIC) of 9.2% (free cash flow yield of 0%). Within the Oil & Gas Production peer group, investor evaluation centers on operating leverage, unit margin durability, and capital allocation efficiency across market cycles.
In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Northern Oil and Gas Inc. (NOG) reported $2.48B in annual revenue (up from $2.23B in FY2024, +11.2% YoY) and $38.8M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($2.17B revenue, $923.0M net income) through FY2025, NOG scaled operating cash flow to $1.51B and free cash flow to $1.51B, backed by $5.41B in total assets against $0 in total debt.
3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff
- 🐂 Primary Bull Case (C • RQD 62/100): Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side. Free cash flow yield of — and institutional whale pillar of 16/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 12/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 16/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $17.18 – $31.17 52-week range.
- 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh 76.4x trailing P/E and 12.0x EV/EBITDA against 9.9% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.
4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch
Operating in Oil & Gas Production (Energy), NOG carries a macro regime beta of 1.00 and gross margin of 80.9%.
- Key Question #1: Can NOG sustain or expand its 9.9% operating margin and 9.2% ROIC against Oil & Gas Production peers over the next 4 quarters?
- Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $2.48B and free cash flow of $1.51B, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
- Key Question #3: How sensitive is NOG's 71.1x forward P/E multiple to Energy capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?
NOG Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire
Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Northern Oil and Gas Inc. (NOG) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below
Yahoo Finance report covering Northern Oil and Gas Inc. (NOG) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
ChartMill report covering Northern Oil and Gas Inc. (NOG) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Yahoo Finance report covering Northern Oil and Gas Inc. (NOG) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
TradingView report covering Northern Oil and Gas Inc. (NOG) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Simply Wall St report covering Northern Oil and Gas Inc. (NOG) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Investing.com report covering Northern Oil and Gas Inc. (NOG) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
The Globe and Mail report covering Northern Oil and Gas Inc. (NOG) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
kalkine.ca report covering Northern Oil and Gas Inc. (NOG) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
NOG Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $24.98?
Institutional accumulation and a 41% run with price targets raised to $31.7 point to continued Wall Street momentum behind NOG.
Long NOG at $28.35 targeting $37.42. Institutional accumulation and a 41% run with price targets raised to $31.7 point to continued Wall Street momentum behind NOG.. Institutional whale score is 16/20 and the risk/reward vs. the $17.18 52-week low is skewed heavily in favor of bulls.
@FadeTheHype Fair point on 76.4x trailing P/E, but you're ignoring the forward operating leverage in Oil & Gas Production. If gross margin (80.9%) holds, EPS grows into the multiple faster than bears think.
A 76.4 trailing P/E, 0% FCF yield, and net income falling to $38.8M in FY 2025 leave little cash support for the current price.
I respect the product at Northern Oil and Gas Inc., but the stock at $28.35 is a different story. A 76.4 trailing P/E, 0% FCF yield, and net income falling to $38.8M in FY 2025 leave little cash support for the current price.. FCF yield is 0.0% and RQD sits at 62/100 (C) — why pay up here when you can wait for next quarter's numbers?