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TALO (60) GPOR (66) SDRL (48) EROK (47) ⌘ Pro Terminal β†’

Northern Oil and Gas Inc. (NOG) Options Positioning, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps

$25.80 -8.99% NYSE β€’ Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $25.33

Northern Oil and Gas Inc. (NOG) carries a Roarable Rating of C (Hold) with 62/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

ROARABLE C β€’ HOLD / WATCH Cap $2.75B
πŸ“€ Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚑ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW β€’ $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on NOG Below β€” or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
πŸ€– Mara Quenwick β€’ AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is NOG stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
β–Ό

As of 2026-11-03, Northern Oil and Gas Inc. (NYSE: NOG) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 62/100 at a spot price of $25.80 (-8.99% 1D, market cap $2.75B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 16/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 12/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 13/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 9/20. Across 211 tracked Energy issuers, NOG ranks #83 in composite RQD confidence.

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Ellis Vennor β€’ AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does NOG compare to TALO and GPOR in the Energy sector?
β–Ό

Within the Energy sector (Oil & Gas Production), NOG carries a Roarable C (62/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 76.4x, gross margin of 80.9%, and ROIC of 9.2%. By comparison, TALO (Talos Energy Inc.) holds a C- grade (60/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -14.6%, cap $2.75B) and GPOR (Gulfport Energy Corporation) posts a C+ grade (66/100 RQD, P/E 6.8x, ROIC 18.1%, cap $2.96B). Among the 5-stock peer group, GPOR leads on earnings multiple (6.8x) while GPOR leads on capital efficiency (18.1% ROIC).

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Gideon Ashmere β€’ AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for NOG?
β–Ό

Per NOG's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001104485), Northern Oil and Gas Inc. generated $2.48B in revenue (+11.2% YoY), $38.8M in net income, and $1.51B in free cash flow against $5.41B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists β€” not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
πŸ›‘οΈ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $25.33 (-1.81%)🧬 Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)βš™οΈ Cash Engine: 12/20 (C-) β€’ 60.8% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit β†’
πŸ“Š Historical Track Record: Scores of 62/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.7% avg 90D alpha vs SPY β€’ 54.3% hit rate β€” wait for RQD β‰₯ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record β†’
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH β€’ C
025507510062
Quant Analyst Panel Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) β€” not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw C Β· Rk C
Cash (12)Whales (16)SEC (12)Macro (13)CEO (9)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+1.8% Base Target
$33 Bull$26 Base$20 Bear
πŸ“¬ FREE NOG RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: β€” (No Active Options Snapshot on file for NOG)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: Β±7.4%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (62/100 Composite)
πŸ” WHY NOG SCORES 62/100 (C) β€” TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
β–² #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+16/20 pts (26% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (Β±7.4% realized swing band)

β–² #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+13/20 pts (21% of score)

FRED Regime Γ— Technicals: 62% of 52W Range β€’ RSI-14 at 44.5 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

β–Ό #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution9/20 pts (-11 pt drag)

Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 11 pts from alignment

πŸ“ˆ PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 β†’ Q2 β†’ Q3 β†’ Current
Q1 (-3Q)
70
Grade B$26.30+4.3% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
67
Grade B-$27.44+2.4% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
65
Grade C+$28.09-8.2% Next Q
Current
62
Grade C$25.80+0.7% Hist 90D Ξ±
Trajectory: B (70) β†’ C (62)Full Audit β†’
βš”οΈ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

βš”οΈ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the NOG Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk β†’

Even with a 62/100 (C) score, NOG faces multiple-compression risk if 76.4x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Priced at 76x earningsβ€”high expectations leave less room for a lukewarm quarter.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($25.78) or 200D SMA ($24.63) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($26.26) toward Bear Floor ($20.48).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $NOGβ€’ $2.4M Crowd Pool β€’ Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: β€œNOG Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 62%NO 38%Trade / Inspect Odds β†’
CALL VS. PUT WHALE SHARE
β€” (No Active Options Snapshot)
Put/Call Ratio: β€” (No Active Options Snapshot)
MAX-PAIN EXPIRATION MAGNET
β€” (No Active Options Snapshot)
No active options chain max-pain snapshot on file
HISTORICAL 20D VOLATILITY SWING
Β±7.4%
Derived from 20D OHLCV bars (No Active Options Snapshot)

Active Strike Call vs. Put Concentration Ladder (NOG)

β€” (No Active Options Snapshot) β€” No unusual CBOE strike concentration anomalies recorded in the current database snapshot for NOG.

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Whale Flow & Momentum Playbook: Evaluating NOG & AI Leaders Without Chasing Tops

  • βœ“Institutional whale strikes & implied earnings move audit on NOG
  • βœ“How disciplined traders manage risk using pre-published trigger & invalidation levels
  • βœ“Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on tracked leaders
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NOG // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -3.19%πŸ›‘οΈ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT
2026-11-04O $28.35H $28.35L $25.80C $25.80VOL 3.21M
RES: $28.94SUP: $24.72SMA50: $25.78SMA200: $24.63
$29.54$26.19$22.84$19.49$16.14RES $28.94SUP $24.72$25.802026-05-052026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-04
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

NOG Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

πŸ¦‹ NOG Butterfly Map β†’ + Track NOG β†’
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
48.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +11.2% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on NOG today. View full Setup Ledger β†’

πŸ¦‹ Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph β†’

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for NOG. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for NOG today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk β†’
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT β€’ SEC EDGAR XBRL Γ— RQD PEER BENCHMARK

πŸ“Š Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (NOG)

Energy Rank #83 of 211 βš”οΈ TALO vs NOG Full Matrix β†’

1. Head-to-Head Energy Peer Comparison (NOG vs. TALO, GPOR, SDRL, EROK)

Industry: Oil & Gas Production (106 Tracked Issuers)

Across 211 tracked Energy securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Northern Oil and Gas Inc. (NOG) ranks #83 by composite RQD confidence (62/100, grade C) and #108 by equity capitalization ($2.75B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, GPOR leads on earnings valuation at 6.8x trailing P/E, while GPOR leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 18.1% ROIC and 74.8% gross margin. GPOR currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 66/100 (C+) compared with NOG at 62/100 (C).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
NOG ACTIVE
Northern Oil and Gas Inc.
C 62/100 76.4x 80.9% 9.2% -8.99% $2.75B Benchmark Subject
TALO
Talos Energy Inc.
C- 60/100 β€” β€” -14.6% -9.71% $2.75B /talo-vs-nog β†’
GPOR
Gulfport Energy Corporation
C+ 66/100 6.8x 74.8% 18.1% +0.64% $2.96B /gpor-vs-nog β†’
SDRL
Seadrill Limited
D 48/100 β€” β€” 1.2% -9.21% $2.99B /sdrl-vs-nog β†’
EROK
EagleRock Land LLC representing limited liability company interests (Class A)
D 47/100 β€” β€” β€” -4.39% $2.49B /erok-vs-nog β†’

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K β€’ FILED 2025-12-31 β€’ CIK 0001104485 β†—

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Northern Oil and Gas Inc. (NOG) reported GAAP revenue of $2.48B (+11.2% vs. FY2024 revenue of $2.23B , and +14.3% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $38.8M, operating cash flow of $1.51B, and free cash flow of $1.51B (+6.9% YoY). On the balance sheet, NOG closed FY2025 with $5.41B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 1.28, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $2.48B $38.8M $1.51B $1.51B $5.41B β€”
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $2.23B $520.3M $1.41B $1.41B $5.60B β€”
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $2.17B $923.0M $1.18B $1.18B β€” β€”

3. NOG Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

βœ“ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is NOG stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Northern Oil and Gas Inc. (NYSE: NOG) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 62/100 at a spot price of $25.80 (-8.99% 1D, market cap $2.75B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 16/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 12/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 13/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 9/20. Across 211 tracked Energy issuers, NOG ranks #83 in composite RQD confidence.

How does NOG compare to TALO and GPOR in the Energy sector?

Within the Energy sector (Oil & Gas Production), NOG carries a Roarable C (62/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 76.4x, gross margin of 80.9%, and ROIC of 9.2%. By comparison, TALO (Talos Energy Inc.) holds a C- grade (60/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -14.6%, cap $2.75B) and GPOR (Gulfport Energy Corporation) posts a C+ grade (66/100 RQD, P/E 6.8x, ROIC 18.1%, cap $2.96B). Among the 5-stock peer group, GPOR leads on earnings multiple (6.8x) while GPOR leads on capital efficiency (18.1% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for NOG?

Per NOG's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001104485), Northern Oil and Gas Inc. generated $2.48B in revenue (+11.2% YoY), $38.8M in net income, and $1.51B in free cash flow against $5.41B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is NOG trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

NOG last traded at $25.80 (-8.99% on volume of 3,206,510 shares), positioning the stock +0.08% above its 50-day simple moving average ($25.78) and +4.75% above its 200-day simple moving average ($24.63). Across its 52-week range of $17.18 to $31.17, NOG sits at the 61.6% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 44.5 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of Β±7.4% ($23.89 to $27.71).

Direct Sub-Reports: NOG RQD Cockpit NOG 12M Forecast NOG Earnings & Move NOG Dividends & DRIP NOG Insiders & 13F NOG Whale Options NOG Profit Sankey NOG News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF β€’ RQD 62/100 (C) βœ“ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

NOG β€” Northern Oil and Gas Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Northern Oil and Gas Inc. (NOG) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 62/100, corresponding to a C letter grade (Roarable Hold) at a spot price of $25.80 (-8.99% 1D, market capitalization $2.75B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (12/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 9.2%, gross margin of 80.9%, operating margin of 9.9%, and free cash flow yield of β€”.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (16/20) + Insider Conviction (9/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (13/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (12/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 1.28, Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Northern Oil and Gas Inc. (NOG) is a NYSE-listed operating company in the Oil & Gas Production industry (Energy sector) with an equity market capitalization of $3.02B. The business operates with a gross margin of 80.9%, an operating margin of 9.9%, and a return on invested capital (ROIC) of 9.2% (free cash flow yield of 0%). Within the Oil & Gas Production peer group, investor evaluation centers on operating leverage, unit margin durability, and capital allocation efficiency across market cycles.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Northern Oil and Gas Inc. (NOG) reported $2.48B in annual revenue (up from $2.23B in FY2024, +11.2% YoY) and $38.8M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($2.17B revenue, $923.0M net income) through FY2025, NOG scaled operating cash flow to $1.51B and free cash flow to $1.51B, backed by $5.41B in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • πŸ‚ Primary Bull Case (C β€’ RQD 62/100): Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side. Free cash flow yield of β€” and institutional whale pillar of 16/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 12/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 16/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $17.18 – $31.17 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh 76.4x trailing P/E and 12.0x EV/EBITDA against 9.9% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Operating in Oil & Gas Production (Energy), NOG carries a macro regime beta of 1.00 and gross margin of 80.9%.

  • Key Question #1: Can NOG sustain or expand its 9.9% operating margin and 9.2% ROIC against Oil & Gas Production peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $2.48B and free cash flow of $1.51B, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is NOG's 71.1x forward P/E multiple to Energy capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

NOG Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Northern Oil and Gas Inc. (NOG) β€’ Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

πŸ’¬ Jump to NOG Debate Forum (3) ↓
πŸ”₯ THE ROAR PIT β€’ LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

NOG Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board β€” What's Your Call at $25.80?

πŸ‚ 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON NOG 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on NOG:
πŸ’‘ Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
CA CashFlowKing RQD DEBATE OPENER β€’ FCF Compounder Hunter πŸ‚ BULLISH 🎯 Target: $37.42 (+32.0%)
πŸ“Œ Pinned Debate

Institutional accumulation and a 41% run with price targets raised to $31.7 point to continued Wall Street momentum behind NOG.

Long NOG at $28.35 targeting $37.42. Institutional accumulation and a 41% run with price targets raised to $31.7 point to continued Wall Street momentum behind NOG.. Institutional whale score is 16/20 and the risk/reward vs. the $17.18 52-week low is skewed heavily in favor of bulls.

CapAlloc_Nerd πŸ‚ BULL

@FadeTheHype Fair point on 76.4x trailing P/E, but you're ignoring the forward operating leverage in Oil & Gas Production. If gross margin (80.9%) holds, EPS grows into the multiple faster than bears think.

FA FadeTheHype RQD DEBATE OPENER β€’ Contrarian Tape Reader 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $21.83 (-23.0%)
Spot @ $28.35

A 76.4 trailing P/E, 0% FCF yield, and net income falling to $38.8M in FY 2025 leave little cash support for the current price.

I respect the product at Northern Oil and Gas Inc., but the stock at $28.35 is a different story. A 76.4 trailing P/E, 0% FCF yield, and net income falling to $38.8M in FY 2025 leave little cash support for the current price.. FCF yield is 0.0% and RQD sits at 62/100 (C) β€” why pay up here when you can wait for next quarter's numbers?

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