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Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / NVGS / forecast
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Navigator Holdings Ltd. (Marshall Islands) (NVGS) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$20.00 -7.02% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $19.71

Navigator Holdings Ltd. (Marshall Islands) (NVGS) carries a Roarable Rating of C- (Hold) with 59/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

ROARABLE C- • HOLD / WATCH Cap $1.33B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is NVGS stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Navigator Holdings Ltd. (Marshall Islands) (NYSE: NVGS) is rated C- (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 59/100 at a spot price of $20.00 (-7.02% 1D, market cap $1.33B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 10/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 7/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 9/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 15/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 18/20. Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, NVGS ranks #349 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does NVGS compare to CCEC and TK in the Consumer Discretionary sector?
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Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Marine Transportation), NVGS carries a Roarable C- (59/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 13.4x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 12.2%. By comparison, CCEC (Capital Clean Energy Carriers Corp. Common Share) holds a D+ grade (54/100 RQD, P/E 7.0x, ROIC 4.9%, cap $1.31B) and TK (Teekay Corporation Ltd.) posts a B+ grade (76/100 RQD, P/E 13.2x, ROIC 19.6%, cap $1.29B). Among the 5-stock peer group, GSL leads on earnings multiple (3.6x) while TK leads on capital efficiency (19.6% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for NVGS?
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Per NVGS's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001581804), Navigator Holdings Ltd. (Marshall Islands) generated $587.0M in revenue (+3.6% YoY), $100.1M in net income, and $116.6M in free cash flow against $2.28B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $19.71 (-1.45%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.92% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 10/20 (D) • 19.9% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 59/100 (C-) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.2% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 53.1% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C-
025507510059
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk C-
Cash (10)Whales (7)SEC (9)Macro (15)CEO (18)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+0.4% Base Target
$27 Bull$20 Base$16 Bear
📬 FREE NVGS RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for NVGS)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±7.3%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (59/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY NVGS SCORES 59/100 (C-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+18/20 pts (31% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 86% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.92% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+15/20 pts (25% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 41% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 42.4 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning7/20 pts (-13 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-13 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
67
Grade B-$23.75-11.2% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
64
Grade C+$21.10+1.3% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
62
Grade C+$21.37-6.4% Next Q
Current
59
Grade C-$20.00+0.2% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: B- (67) → C- (59)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the NVGS Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 59/100 (C-) score, NVGS faces multiple-compression risk if 13.4x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.92% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($22.77) or 200D SMA ($21.22) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($20.09) toward Bear Floor ($15.67).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $NVGS• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “NVGS Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 59%NO 41%Trade / Inspect Odds →
INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your NVGS Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $20.00: 500.0 sh
$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000
12M Bear Case FloorTarget $15.67
$7,835
$-2,165 (-21.6%)
12M Consensus BaseTarget $20.09
$10,045
+$45 (+0.4%)
12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $26.75
$13,375
+$3,375 (+33.8%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (28 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100
● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 2
Wall Street FirmStance12M Target1Y AccuracyTrack Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity DeskHOLD$2174%A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage LeadBUY$2569%B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap ResearchHOLD$1858%C
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (NVGS Tape Review)

  • ✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
  • ✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
  • ✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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NVGS // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -8.93%▼ SUPPORT BREAKDOWN
2026-11-03O $21.71H $21.71L $20.00C $20.00VOL 297.9K
RES: $26.62SUP: $20.47SMA50: $22.77SMA200: $21.22
$26.02$23.77$21.52$19.26$17.01RES $26.62SUP $20.47$20.002026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

NVGS Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 NVGS Butterfly Map → + Track NVGS →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
4.8%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +3.6% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on NVGS today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for NVGS. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for NVGS today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (NVGS)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #349 of 1009 ⚔️ CCEC vs NVGS Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (NVGS vs. CCEC, TK, GSL, FLNG)

Industry: Marine Transportation (67 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Navigator Holdings Ltd. (Marshall Islands) (NVGS) ranks #349 by composite RQD confidence (59/100, grade C-) and #472 by equity capitalization ($1.33B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, GSL leads on earnings valuation at 3.6x trailing P/E, while TK leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 19.6% ROIC and 66.6% gross margin. TK currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 76/100 (B+) compared with NVGS at 59/100 (C-).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
NVGS ACTIVE
Navigator Holdings Ltd. (Marshall Islands)
C- 59/100 13.4x — 12.2% -7.02% $1.33B Benchmark Subject
CCEC
Capital Clean Energy Carriers Corp. Common Share
D+ 54/100 7.0x — 4.9% +0.74% $1.31B /ccec-vs-nvgs →
TK
Teekay Corporation Ltd.
B+ 76/100 13.2x 66.6% 19.6% -5.32% $1.29B /tk-vs-nvgs →
GSL
Global Ship Lease Inc (Class A)
C 64/100 3.6x — 16.6% -3.62% $1.50B /gsl-vs-nvgs →
FLNG
FLEX LNG Ltd.
D 45/100 20.7x — 6.9% -3.84% $1.53B /flng-vs-nvgs →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001581804 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Navigator Holdings Ltd. (Marshall Islands) (NVGS) reported GAAP revenue of $587.0M (+3.6% vs. FY2024 revenue of $566.7M , and +6.6% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $100.1M, operating cash flow of $201.7M, and free cash flow of $116.6M (-44.6% YoY). On the balance sheet, NVGS closed FY2025 with $2.28B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 1.57, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $587.0M $100.1M $201.7M $116.6M $2.28B —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $566.7M $85.6M $210.5M $210.5M $2.18B $505.0M
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $550.7M $82.3M $174.4M $174.4M — —

3. NVGS Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is NVGS stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Navigator Holdings Ltd. (Marshall Islands) (NYSE: NVGS) is rated C- (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 59/100 at a spot price of $20.00 (-7.02% 1D, market cap $1.33B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 10/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 7/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 9/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 15/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 18/20. Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, NVGS ranks #349 in composite RQD confidence.

How does NVGS compare to CCEC and TK in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Marine Transportation), NVGS carries a Roarable C- (59/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 13.4x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 12.2%. By comparison, CCEC (Capital Clean Energy Carriers Corp. Common Share) holds a D+ grade (54/100 RQD, P/E 7.0x, ROIC 4.9%, cap $1.31B) and TK (Teekay Corporation Ltd.) posts a B+ grade (76/100 RQD, P/E 13.2x, ROIC 19.6%, cap $1.29B). Among the 5-stock peer group, GSL leads on earnings multiple (3.6x) while TK leads on capital efficiency (19.6% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for NVGS?

Per NVGS's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001581804), Navigator Holdings Ltd. (Marshall Islands) generated $587.0M in revenue (+3.6% YoY), $100.1M in net income, and $116.6M in free cash flow against $2.28B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is NVGS trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

NVGS last traded at $20.00 (-7.02% on volume of 525,091 shares), positioning the stock -12.17% below its 50-day simple moving average ($22.77) and -5.75% below its 200-day simple moving average ($21.22). Across its 52-week range of $16.12 to $25.48, NVGS sits at the 41.5% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 42.4 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±7.3% ($18.54 to $21.46).

Direct Sub-Reports: NVGS RQD Cockpit NVGS 12M Forecast NVGS Earnings & Move NVGS Dividends & DRIP NVGS Insiders & 13F NVGS Whale Options NVGS Profit Sankey NVGS News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 59/100 (C-) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

NVGS — Navigator Holdings Ltd. (Marshall Islands): What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Navigator Holdings Ltd. (Marshall Islands) (NVGS) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 59/100, corresponding to a C- letter grade (Roarable Hold) at a spot price of $20.00 (-7.02% 1D, market capitalization $1.33B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (10/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 12.2%, gross margin of —, operating margin of 28.2%, and free cash flow yield of 8.71%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (7/20) + Insider Conviction (18/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (15/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (9/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 1.57, Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Navigator Holdings Ltd. (Marshall Islands) is a NYSE-listed issuer classified under Consumer Discretionary within the Marine Transportation industry. The profile does not describe its products, customers, or specific revenue model. — The company's scale is indicated by a market capitalization of $1.3B.0M .

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Navigator Holdings Ltd. (Marshall Islands) (NVGS) reported $587.0M in annual revenue (up from $566.7M in FY2024, +3.6% YoY) and $100.1M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($550.7M revenue, $82.3M net income) through FY2025, NVGS scaled operating cash flow to $201.7M and free cash flow to $116.6M, backed by $2.28B in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (C- • RQD 59/100): Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Free cash flow yield of 8.71% and institutional whale pillar of 7/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 10/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 7/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $16.12 – $25.48 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins. Investors must weigh 13.4x trailing P/E and 5.0x EV/EBITDA against 28.2% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Upstream and downstream dependencies, sector correlations, and second-order bottlenecks cannot be mapped from the source data.

  • Key Question #1: Can NVGS sustain or expand its 28.2% operating margin and 12.2% ROIC against Marine Transportation peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $587.0M and free cash flow of $116.6M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is NVGS's 12.5x forward P/E multiple to Consumer Discretionary capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

NVGS Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Navigator Holdings Ltd. (Marshall Islands) (NVGS) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to NVGS Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

NVGS Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $20.00?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON NVGS 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on NVGS:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
MA MacroHawk_NYC RQD DEBATE OPENER • Cross-Asset Macro Desk 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $25.60 (+19.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Insider conviction scores 18 of 20 and beta of 1.0 with macro regime fit of 16 of 20 support the thesis despite a middling rating.

Don't sleep on NVGS's setup in Consumer Discretionary. Insider conviction scores 18 of 20 and beta of 1.0 with macro regime fit of 16 of 20 support the thesis despite a middling rating.. Beta of 1.0 means it moves fast when momentum turns, and the 5-pillar RQD gauge (59/100) backs up the fundamental quality.

CapAlloc_Nerd 🐂 BULL

@MacroHawk_NYC Agree on the RQD 59/100 quality, though with 1.0 beta I'm scaling in with half-size at $21.51 and keeping dry powder in case we test $20.00.

ME MeanReversion_88 RQD DEBATE OPENER • Quantitative Statistical Arb 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $16.13 (-25.0%)
Spot @ $21.51

Whale 13F flow scores only 7 of 20 and the forensic balance sheet scores 9 of 20 with Altman Z at 1.57, limiting conviction.

Here is the bear case nobody on the bull side wants to address on NVGS: Whale 13F flow scores only 7 of 20 and the forensic balance sheet scores 9 of 20 with Altman Z at 1.57, limiting conviction.. At 13.4x trailing P/E, even a small guidance miss in Marine Transportation triggers a 12-15% air pocket.

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